Current Projects

Counter-Terrorism Situation and Cooperation in Asia

ImtiazGul, Executive Director CRSS, presented the following paper at the First Annual Conference of CICA Non-Governmental Forum Beijing, May 25-26, at Beijing, China. Contextualizing the Scenario Today, Muslim majority territories from western China to Central / South to the Arabian Peninsula and Africa – Xinjiang, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Algeria, Nigeria, Yemen, Sudan – faced one or other form of violent conflict driven by regional or national religio-political groups who draw inspiration largely from the trans-nationalist al-Qaeda to peddle their militant agendas. As a whole, some eight operational theatres under the influence of Al-Qaeda Arabian Peninsula, Al-Qaeda Indian sub-continent, Al-Shebab, Boko-Haram, Taliban, and the Islamic State (IS) are all but a few manifestations of an increasingly volatile political landscape. The IS, the latest entrant to the world of militant Islam, has triggered fresh fears along new battle-lines. Yemen’s civil war and the Saudi Arabian invasion on that country, represent another source of instability in the already volatile region. This violent entity is certainly stoking fears in major western capitals as the group continues to galvanize disgruntled youth, mostly those confronted with an identity crisis or those who feel isolated and marginalized in the western societies. Why is this happening? Timeline Clearly, this has not happened in a vacuum. History has moved full circle; the United States and its allies – all those who had once directly or otherwise supported non-state actors in the Middle East, South America, or Afghanistan to pursue their geo-political objectives in the war against the Soviet Union, communism and China – now taste their own medicine. They put an entire generation of overzealous Muslims on the ‘medicine’ of “jihad” for their geo-political objectives but that “jihad” has not only transformed into violent extremism and naked terrorism, but also coming back to haunt most...

8 Pakistani cities feature in world’s deadliest cities index

Eight Pakistani cities are listed among 64 cities from around the world that are at an “extreme risk” of terror attacks, according to a new index by Verisk. The cities in Pakistan include Peshawar (7), Quetta (9), Hassu Khel (10), Karachi (16), Rawalpindi (27), Lahore (29), Sukkur (24) and Islamabad (44). The index after assessing 1,300 of the world’s most important commercial hubs and urban centres ranked world cities by the likelihood of a terror attack based on historic trends. Peshawar rose sharply in the index following a deadly attack on an army-run school in the city on December 16 which claimed more than 142 lives mostly children. Read: Our darkest hour Quetta and Karachi are privy to terrorist activities as well. In 2013, a US magazine Foreign Policy termed Karachi “the most dangerous megacity” in the world. Read: US magazine terms Karachi ‘most dangerous megacity’ in the world In a piece on Karachi’s role in the global trade of methamphetamine — an illegal psychostimulant – Foreign Policy cited a murder rate of 12.3 per 100, 000 residents, “some 25 percent higher than any other major city”. The world’s seven most dangerous cities are all in Iraq, with Baghdad topping the list as the world’s most dangerous city. Islamic State-held Mosul ranked number 2 and Ramadi was at number 3. Though majority of the cities in the index are in the Middle East (27) and Asia (19), European cities have also been placed at a risk of a terror attack in the aftermath of the Charlie Hebdo attacks. Read: At least 12 killed in Paris massacre Paris is ranked 97th in the world, up from 201st at the start of the year prior to the Charlie Hebdo attacks. Three are in Europe, namely Luhansk (46) and Donetsk (56) in Ukraine, and Grozy (54) in Russia. The only South American in the list is Colombia’s Cali ranked at number 59. The British city most at risk of terror attacks is Belfast (91), followed by Bristol (178), Cardiff (313), Manchester (398) and London (400). Some 14 are in...

8 Pakistani cities feature in world's deadliest cities index

Eight Pakistani cities are listed among 64 cities from around the world that are at an “extreme risk” of terror attacks, according to a new index by Verisk. The cities in Pakistan include Peshawar (7), Quetta (9), Hassu Khel (10), Karachi (16), Rawalpindi (27), Lahore (29), Sukkur (24) and Islamabad (44). The index after assessing 1,300 of the world’s most important commercial hubs and urban centres ranked world cities by the likelihood of a terror attack based on historic trends. Peshawar rose sharply in the index following a deadly attack on an army-run school in the city on December 16 which claimed more than 142 lives mostly children. Read: Our darkest hour Quetta and Karachi are privy to terrorist activities as well. In 2013, a US magazine Foreign Policy termed Karachi “the most dangerous megacity” in the world. Read: US magazine terms Karachi ‘most dangerous megacity’ in the world In a piece on Karachi’s role in the global trade of methamphetamine — an illegal psychostimulant – Foreign Policy cited a murder rate of 12.3 per 100, 000 residents, “some 25 percent higher than any other major city”. The world’s seven most dangerous cities are all in Iraq, with Baghdad topping the list as the world’s most dangerous city. Islamic State-held Mosul ranked number 2 and Ramadi was at number 3. Though majority of the cities in the index are in the Middle East (27) and Asia (19), European cities have also been placed at a risk of a terror attack in the aftermath of the Charlie Hebdo attacks. Read: At least 12 killed in Paris massacre Paris is ranked 97th in the world, up from 201st at the start of the year prior to the Charlie Hebdo attacks. Three are in Europe, namely Luhansk (46) and Donetsk (56) in Ukraine, and Grozy (54) in Russia. The only South American in the list is Colombia’s Cali ranked at number 59. The British city most at risk of terror attacks is Belfast (91), followed by Bristol (178), Cardiff (313), Manchester (398) and London (400). Some 14 are in...

8 Pakistani cities feature in world's deadliest cities index

Eight Pakistani cities are listed among 64 cities from around the world that are at an “extreme risk” of terror attacks, according to a new index by Verisk. The cities in Pakistan include Peshawar (7), Quetta (9), Hassu Khel (10), Karachi (16), Rawalpindi (27), Lahore (29), Sukkur (24) and Islamabad (44). The index after assessing 1,300 of the world’s most important commercial hubs and urban centres ranked world cities by the likelihood of a terror attack based on historic trends. Peshawar rose sharply in the index following a deadly attack on an army-run school in the city on December 16 which claimed more than 142 lives mostly children. Read: Our darkest hour Quetta and Karachi are privy to terrorist activities as well. In 2013, a US magazine Foreign Policy termed Karachi “the most dangerous megacity” in the world. Read: US magazine terms Karachi ‘most dangerous megacity’ in the world In a piece on Karachi’s role in the global trade of methamphetamine — an illegal psychostimulant – Foreign Policy cited a murder rate of 12.3 per 100, 000 residents, “some 25 percent higher than any other major city”. The world’s seven most dangerous cities are all in Iraq, with Baghdad topping the list as the world’s most dangerous city. Islamic State-held Mosul ranked number 2 and Ramadi was at number 3. Though majority of the cities in the index are in the Middle East (27) and Asia (19), European cities have also been placed at a risk of a terror attack in the aftermath of the Charlie Hebdo attacks. Read: At least 12 killed in Paris massacre Paris is ranked 97th in the world, up from 201st at the start of the year prior to the Charlie Hebdo attacks. Three are in Europe, namely Luhansk (46) and Donetsk (56) in Ukraine, and Grozy (54) in Russia. The only South American in the list is Colombia’s Cali ranked at number 59. The British city most at risk of terror attacks is Belfast (91), followed by Bristol (178), Cardiff (313), Manchester (398) and London (400). Some 14 are in...

Migrant Smuggling: How Should the EU and its Members States Respond?

The Mediterranean Sea has proven once more it is today’s most dangerous border between Europe and Africa. Only 28 people could be rescued when a boat capsized last weekend, meaning that a further 800 perished at sea, including young children. Up to April 2015, 1600 people have lost their lives in an attempt to reach the ‘promised land’. This commentary focuses on one aspect of this complex phenomenon – migrant smuggling. It argues that the EU needs to address the root causes of migrant smuggling in order to prioritize human rights within its migration policies and to take preventive action. Last year was a record high for migrant smuggling, with an estimated 350.000 migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea irregularly. Many were refugees fleeing conflict and instability in Africa and the Middle East. Migrant smuggling presents the EU with new challenges, and blurs the lines between the various forms of migration that confront policy-makers. The trend is increasingly towards mixed migration, which underscores the fact that refugees and economic migrants often use the same routes and smugglers to reach the same destinations. To complicate things further, the smuggling trade may be professionalizing. For example, to reduce the risks to the smugglers themselves, rescue operations encounter ‘ghost-ships’, which are abandoned by their crew in the hope that migrants will be rescued by EU vessels. Alternatively, some boats are ‘captained’ by migrants themselves in return for “free” passage to Europe. Italy’s PM Matteo Renzi has called for an EU summit on the issue but how should the EU and its member states act to curb migrant smuggling? A careful balance is required between the sometimes conflicting obligations of ensuring refugee status to those forced to flee their countries, on the one hand, while combatting illegal and irregular migration, on the other. The following analysis calls for an EU response to migrant smuggling that centres on issuing humanitarian visas...

Farce of nation-building

The last few weeks have seen an unusual surge in Taliban operations in at least 10 Afghan provinces. The embattled provinces are all over the country — north, south, west and east — raising questions as to whether the Afghan government and army can repel the threat. Iraq offers a similar story, where the Islamic State (IS) appears to be on a rampage. The situation in both countries, as well as in and around Syria and Libya, are telling examples of disastrous adventures undertaken in the name of the war on terror and nation-building. Though raised on billions of dollars, these projects fell far short of the stated objectives due to strategic policy blunders and short-sightedness — hence failing to create durable institutions. The total annual cost for the combined 352,000-strong Afghan National Security Forces — comprising the ministries of defence and interior — is $5.5 billion a year, but despite having invested billions in the Afghan security apparatus since 2003, the US Department of Defense has no direct oversight of the Afghan National Army’s (ANA) personnel data. Neither does the Afghan defence ministry have an electronic payroll data system. Instead, it calculates salaries by hand, leaving limited assurances that personnel receive accurate salaries. In its April 2015 quarterly report to Congress, the office of John F Sopko, the US Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction, concluded that the absence of electronic records means minimal oversight of US funding for ANA salaries, making it difficult to ensure the funds are being used to pay authorised ANA personnel their correct salaries. Despite over 13 years of engagement with US-led coalition forces, the ANA attendance data, upon which US funding for salaries relies, is minimally controlled and inconsistently collected. Emma Sky, a British citizen, who volunteered to help rebuild Iraq after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, has similar tales to tell in her book, The Unraveling: High Hopes...

CRSS hosts The Century Foundation International Working Group on Pakistan panel

Jago Pakistan report provides methods for looking at potential solutions to various socio-economic issues affecting Pakistan, with particular emphasis on education reform and economic stability Islamabad, May 19, 2015: The Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) on Tuesday hosted a panel comprising of members of The Century Foundation (TCF) International Working Group on Pakistan. The panel discussed the recently released report titled "Jago Pakistan" (Wake Up Pakistan), and fielded questions from the audience comprising of foreign delegation representatives, media, academia, intelligentsia and other notable opinion multipliers. The panel consisted of: H.E. Thomas Pickering (Former United States Secretary of State for Political Affairs and Chairman International Working Group) Former United States Ambassador, H.E. Cameron Munter Ambassador H.E. Ann Wilkens (Former Swedish Ambassador to Pakistan and Afghanistan) Hikmet Çetin (Former NATO Senior Civilian Representative in Afghanistan, Former Member and Speaker of the Turkish Grand National Assembly and Former Foreign Minister of Turkey) Mr. Imtiaz Gul (Executive Director, CRSS) Mr. Riaz Khokhar (Former Foreign Secretary and Ambassador of Pakistan) Mr. Ahmad Rashid (Prominent author and journalist) Mr. Najam Sethi (Editor-in-Chief, The Friday Times) Mr. Mosharraf Zaidi (Director, Alif Ailaan campaign) Ambassador Tom Pickering, the chairman of the Working Group said a country cannot prosper without a great economy and the means to combat emerging challenges. He also spoke at length about the various issues addressed by the report including education, peace and access to justice. Mr. Ahmad Rashid said that there was a dire need for economic reform for stability, as Pakistan was dead last in the region in terms of tax collection, trade reforms, privatization and exports. Mr. Hikmat Çetin stressed the importance of education in Pakistan, and iterated that without education reforms, Pakistan cannot hope to...

ISI, Afghan intelligence in landmark deal

A historical deal has been struck between the premier intelligence agencies of Pakistan and Afghanistan for cooperation on counter-terrorism and security issues. In a path-breaking deal Pakistan’s premier intelligence agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Afghan intelligence outfit National Directorate of Security (NDS) have signed an accord for cooperation, which is aimed at bolstering fight against terrorism. The first-of-its-kind deal between the two intelligence agencies followed a landmark visit by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif along with Army Chief Gen Raheel Sharif and ISI Chief Lt Gen Rizwan Akhtar to Kabul last Tuesday during which the Pakistan government denounced Taliban and said that future violence by the militant group would be treated as terrorism. The agreement signed in Kabul some time last week was officially announced only by the ISPR, which besides being the public affairs wing of armed forces also speaks on behalf of the ISI, after Pakistani media outlets came to know about it because of its criticism by Afghan parliamentarians in a debate in Wolesi Jirga (the lower house of Afghan parliament). Read: Don’t destabilise Afghanistan, PM warns Taliban In a late-night tweet, now the ISPR chief’s usual mode for releasing news, Maj Gen Asim Bajwa said: “MoU signed by ISI and NDS includes intelligence sharing, complementary and coordinated intel operations on respective sides.” President Ashraf Ghani’s spokesman Ajmal Abidy, was quoted by Afghanistan’s ToloNews, as saying: “The focus of this agreement is mostly on jointly fighting terrorism.” Agreement for complementary and coordinated operations signed in Kabul with NDS The ToloNews quoted the Karzai government officials as saying that no such agreement existed in the past. Under the agreement, the two intelligence agencies would cooperate in counter-terrorism operations. An essential element of the accord is a provision for joint probe of the terrorism suspects. The ISI would also equip the...

Chinese investment a bonus, but more work required

Many say that the two most important elements that contribute to a country's economy are social and economic security. Unfortunately for Pakistan, the past decade has seen dire circumstances in both these areas. Where terrorism and extremism has claimed countless lives, the fragile economy has cost countless jobs and investment prospects. Pakistan's economic progress has been hampered by a severe energy crisis and shortfall, which results in hours of power outages throughout the country. The energy crisis has literally crippled the overall economy, directly affecting businesses and industries. In some instances, the militant outfits - benefiting from this crisis - have multiplied the woes for the government by attacking main power lines. In one such instance, a power line in Balochistan was blown up by militants in January, leaving 80 percent of the country without power for hours. It is because of this crisis that Pakistan's textile industry, one of the major contributors to the country's exports, recently reported a 16 percent fall in revenues, prompting the government to take serious notice. Pakistan's current energy shortfall sometimes results in daily power outages of 18 and 12 hours in rural and urban areas, respectively. One of the major shortcomings of Pakistan's energy sector is the use of thermal energy for power generation, carried out mostly by independent power producers (IPPs). Because of fluctuating international oil prices, import barriers and other complications, along with delayed payments by major public and private institutions, the phenomenon of circular debt keeps on prevailing in the system. It is due to circular debt that governments, both in the past and present, have had to interfere time and again in order to bail out various state institutions and IPPs in order to keep the power generation machinery going. It came as a relief for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif when Chinese President Xi Jinping on his recent state visit signed and announced...

The Century Foundation launch of the Jago Pakistan Report

Imtiaz Gul, CRSS, speaking at The Century Foundation (TCF) on Pakistan-Afghanistan-China situation on the occasion of the launch of the report: Jago Pakistan (Wake Up Pakistan), produced by the TCF with the support of Pakistani and international experts, academics, ex-ambassadors and ex-officials on May 14 at Washington. Gul was part of this over two-dozen strong panel that worked on the report which surveys Pakistan's socio-political landscape, identifies its pressing problems and recommends remedies for durable, people-focused solutions for Pakistan. The electronic version of the report is now live on our website: http://tcf.org/bookstore/detail/wake-up-pakistan. The report is being launched in Pakistan next week in the presence of the international working group led by ambassador Tom Pickering. The group includes former foreign secretary Riaz Khokhar, Sherry Rehman, James Dobbins, Ann Wilkens, former Swedish ambassador , Mosharraf Zaidi i.a.