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Explaining the resurgence of terrorist violence in Pakistan
Terrorist attacks in Pakistan peaked in 2013, averaging just under four attacks a day, with nearly 2700 total fatalities. The latest trends suggest that 2023 may be worse, with almost 200 terror-related incidents and at least 340 fatalities by March. Is Pakistan reliving the scary spectre of 2013? It may be — the last quarter of 2022 set the tone for the ensuing months, with December ending off the year as the deadliest month for Pakistan’s security forces in over a decade. Around 282 military and police personnel were among the 973 total fatalities in 2022. At the centre of this violence is a new terror triad. It comprises the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the ethnic Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP), the regional chapter of ISIS. One of the immediate explanations for the unprecedented spate of terrorism is the unilateral cancellation of a year-old ceasefire on 28 November 2022 by the TTP, which blamed the government for ‘breaching commitments’ and criticised Pakistani security forces for their actions across the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces that straddle Afghanistan. The TTP demands the restoration of the special status of seven border regions that were annulled in May 2018 and the release of dozens of its detained members. It also wants the Pakistani army out of former no-go areas, presumably to establish its own Islamic caliphate. Islamabad brushed these demands aside as ‘non-negotiable’. Faced with a ramped-up crackdown since early 2021, the defunct TTP has retreated into safe havens in Afghanistan, especially once the Afghan Taliban swept back to power in August 2021. The TTP leadership, including their chief Noor Wali Mehsud, presently enjoy shelter and hospitality in Afghanistan. The presence of top TTP leadership in Afghanistan and the freedom they enjoy has become a sore point in talks with the Afghan Taliban regime. Islamabad is demanding punitive action against the TTP for violence in...
Countries Increase Defense Budgets Despite Economic & Political Slowdown
The chart shows that despite a global and national economic slowdown, the defense budgets of many countries have continued to increase this year. China announced a yearly defense budget of RMB 1.55 trillion ($224.8 billion), a 7.2% increase slightly higher than last year’s 7.1%. The United States unveiled a defense budget of $857.9 billion for 2023 from the previous year of $728 billion, an increase of 13.9%. Japan has raised its military expenditure by 26.3% yen to a record high of 6.3 trillion yen ($49.84 billion) Furthermore, the European Union member states have joined the arms race by raising their defense budgets, with the US urging NATO countries with relatively small military budgets to increase their defense budget. For instance, the French government has approved a military budget of more than €43.9 billion ($42.8 billion). Russia has declared defense spending for 2023 at approximately RUB 5 trillion ($84 billion). India proposed 5.94 trillion rupees ($72.6 billion) for the 2023-24 financial year, 13% up from the previous period’s initial estimates. The UK plans to increase its defense budget by £5 billion ($6 billion) over the next two years. Pakistan’s defense budget was initially increased by 1.53 trillion rupees ($7.5 billion). However, last month (February), Pakistan decided to cut the defense budget by 35% in another bid to tweak financial policies to get the much-needed IMF deal. China had to enhance its defense spending for 2023 to better respond to shifting global and regional conditions and potential emergencies. According to experts, the single-digit increase in the defense budget is plausible due to the country’s military modernization roadmap, the increasing global security threats, and further improved COVID-19 policies that promote economic growth and diplomatic engagements. Contrary to what foreign media is projecting, China has no intention of joining the arms race even though it has the potential to increase its defense budget further....
Key Takeaway points from Xi-Putin Summit
On March 20, 2023, President Xi Jinping visited Moscow on a three-day trip and, upon invitation, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin. The two leaders had a lengthy conversation on strengthening diplomatic, defense, and trade ties and issues of mutual interest. Russia-Ukraine Conflict It was the first visit to Russia by Xi since the Russia-Ukraine War last year. During the first half of the meeting, the Ukraine war was touched upon and remained a central discussion point. “In the last few years, China has made a colossal leap forward,” Putin told Xi, on Monday afternoon. “In the whole world, this evokes interest, and unfortunately even envy.” Xi, who called Putin his “dear friend,” praised his Russian counterpart, saying the country’s development had “significantly improved.” Putin further reassured Xi that he is “always open to the negotiation process,” although he has repeatedly refused to engage with Kyiv regarding a withdrawal from Ukrainian land. Ukraine, on the other hand, has tried to remain optimistic about China playing a neutral role. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko stated, “We expect Beijing to use its influence on Moscow to make it put an end to the aggressive war against Ukraine.” Russia-China Joint Statement on Deepening their Strategic Partnership and agreement on Economic Cooperation Both leaders signed an agreement bringing their ties to a “new era” of cooperation. Xi stated that China and Russia should work more closely to push forward greater political cooperation. In turn, Putin said “all agreements have been reached” and that economic cooperation between Moscow and Beijing was a “priority” for Russia. Russian energy China has emerged as a major buyer of discounted Russian oil and gas as Western buyers have banned energy imports. Russia was China’s top oil supplier in January and February at 1.94 million barrels per day, up from 1.57 million in 2022, according to Chinese customs data. Russia’s crude oil...
Islamabad, Beijing commit to expanding CPEC
Pakistan and China have reiterated the commitment to expand China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and include third parties in the project to enhance regional connectivity and cooperation. The two sides “reaffirmed their commitment to CPEC that remained a major pillar of bilateral cooperation and a symbol of ever-deepening friendship”, according to a statement issued by the Foreign Office after the third round of Pakistan-China Bilateral Political Consultations (BPC) in Beijing. “The two sides reviewed the entire spectrum of bilateral relations, and agreed to expand and reinforce political and security cooperation, bilateral trade, economic and financial cooperation, cultural exchanges, tourism, and people-to-people ties. Pakistan and China will also enhance high-level engagements and dialogue mechanisms and make the channels of communication even more robust,” the FO said. The Pakistani delegation was led by Foreign Secretary Dr Asad Majeed Khan while the Chinese side was led by Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong. The two sides agreed to continue engagements and dialogues and make communication channels even more robust. The foreign secretary thanked the Chinese side for economic support and humanitarian assistance during the devastating floods in 2022. The Chinese vice foreign minister reaffirmed his country’s support for Pakistan’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and economic security, according to the statement released on Sunday. “The two sides exchanged views on a range of regional and global issues of mutual interest and expressed satisfaction over their close cooperation and engagement on important regional developments including in Afghanistan,” it said. ‘Across-the-board support’ In a meeting with Dr Khan, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said China was ready to work with Pakistan “to advance friendly cooperation and promote the construction of CPEC”, according to APP. The Chinese foreign minister reiterated Beijing’s commitment to the strategic and...
Saudi Arabia tells Pakistan: No more easy money
Saudi Arabia and the IMF are both demanding economic reforms from Pakistan, with the kingdom no longer prepared to bailout Islamabad Saudi Arabia‘s decision to refuse to provide any further bailouts or interest-free loans to Pakistan has left the government in Islamabad in shock and has prompted the finance minister to complain that even friendly countries aren’t keen on helping Pakistan out of its economic emergency. Pakistan is in dire need of sustained US dollar inflows to avoid defaulting on nearly $80bn of international loan repayments over the next three and a half years. The country is currently sitting on just $3bn in foreign exchange reserves. Pakistan is also locked in difficult negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over its 13th bailout package since the 1980s. SAUDI ARABIA IS ON A DIFFERENT COURSE NOW. THEY’VE RESET THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH OTHER COUNTRIES…’– KAMAL ALAM, ATLANTIC COUNCIL If an agreement isn’t struck soon, Pakistan will find it increasingly difficult to secure international loans, as its credit rating has been downgraded to junk. Analysts privy to recent developments have told Middle East Eye that Saudi Arabia has conditioned fresh interest-bearing loans and investment on Pakistan implementing strict monetary and fiscal reforms along with a drastic reduction in its current account deficit – conditions similar to those set by the IMF. Umar Karim, associate fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, said Pakistani authorities are in a state of shock. “While previously Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries would bail Pakistan out off the back of a phone call from the foreign minister or the prime minister, this time around they are really being put through the mill,” Karim told MEE. It is believed that on a recent trip, even the Pakistani military chief couldn’t convince Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to release emergency funding for the country. Karim believes this sets a new precedent....
Taliban CT Efforts and Commitments Ineffective So Far
At the multilateral meeting, that took place in Tashkent last week, representatives discussed Afghanistan and expressed concern regarding the growing presence of terrorist elements on Afghan soil. It seems that the international demand from the de facto government to eliminate terrorists is unanimous and undisputed. Will the Taliban listen and act accordingly? Senior diplomats from China, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Russia gathered in Tashkent last week to discuss the situation in Afghanistan. “The participants, pointing out that all terrorist groups based in Afghanistan continue to pose a serious threat to regional and international security, strongly called on the current de facto Afghan authorities to take more effective measures to eliminate terrorist groups in the country,” read a statement from the Uzbek Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Russia, China, and Iran seem to share Washington’s concerns about the threat of terrorism coming from Afghanistan despite their obvious differences with the United States on many topics. They also urge the de facto Taliban authority to keep its counterterrorism commitments. “Even though the Taliban committed not to host terrorists that wish other countries harm and not to allow training or recruiting or fundraising in their territory, all of that is happening,” says Thomas West, U.S. special representative for Afghanistan. In its April 2022 report, the UN team that monitors the Taliban said the group “remains close” with al-Qaeda and that “al-Qaeda has a safe haven under the Taliban and increased freedom of action.” Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri was, indeed, assassinated in Kabul by a U.S. drone strike in August. Several al-Qaeda commanders are reportedly based there, and reports have stated that Zawahiri was residing in the residence of a Taliban ally. Al-Qaeda is probably using Afghanistan as a “friendly environment” to recruit, train, and raise money, according to a UN investigation, even if...
President Xi Jinping vows to build Chinese military into a “Great Wall of steel”
Speaking for the first time in his precedent-breaking third term as head of state, Xi called for China to step up its ability to safeguard national security and manage public security. “Security is the foundation for development, stability is the prerequisite for prosperity,” he said at the closing of the annual parliament session. President Xi Jinping on Monday vowed to build China‘s military into a “Great Wall of steel” to protect the its sovereignty and developmental interests as he sought a bigger role for Beijing in global affairs, days after brokering a Saudi Arabia-Iran detente, regarded as a diplomatic coup. Speaking for the first time since the rubber-stamp Parliament last week approved his precedent-breaking third term as head of state, Xi called on the nation to uphold the leadership of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) headed by him. “This is my third time assuming the lofty office of president,” Xi, 69, said at the closing ceremony of China’s national legislature, adding that “the trust of the people is the biggest driving force for me to move forward, and it is also a heavy responsibility on my shoulders”. He pledged that he would “faithfully perform the duties entrusted by the Constitution” and would “never let down the great trust” of all Chinese people. “Security is the bedrock of development, while stability is a prerequisite for prosperity,” Xi said Xi also called for efforts to advance the modernisation of China’s defence forces and build the people’s armed forces into a “Great Wall of steel” that is capable of effectively safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests. Xi’s reference to the Great Wall was significant as the mammoth structure, with a total length of more than 20,000 km, was built over centuries by China’s emperors to protect their territory. It also came amidst growing tensions between China and the US and some neighbouring countries. Xi is regarded as the ‘core leader’ of the party very much like...
South Asia has Worst GTI Score in 2022
Violent conflict remains the primary driver of terrorism, with over 88 per cent of attacks and 98 per cent of terrorism deaths in 2022 taking place in countries in conflict. All ten countries most impacted by terrorism were also involved in an armed conflict. Terrorism was widespread in Afghanistan with terrorist incidents recorded in 26 out of 34 provinces. While in Pakistan, terrorism-related deaths attributed to BLA are now at their highest level in the last two decades, with 233 deaths recorded in 2022. This is a nine fold increase compared to the 26 deaths recorded in 2021. The tenth edition of Global Terrorism Index (GTI) offers a thorough overview of the most important global trends and patterns in terrorism over the previous ten years. The GTI score is calculated by weighting incidents, hostage situations, and terrorist-related deaths during a five-year period. Deaths from terrorism decreased by 9% in 2022 to 6,701 deaths, which is 38% less than the peak in 2015. Attacks decreased by almost 28% from 5,463 in 2021 to 3,955 in 2022, mirroring the decline in fatalities, which fell by a similar percentage. South Asia remains the region with the worst average GTI score in 2022. There were 1,354 terrorist deaths throughout the region, a 30% drop from the year before. Both the newly formed National Resistance Front (NRF) and the IS Khorasan chapter constitute a severe threat to Afghanistan. In 2022, Afghanistan and Pakistan were still among the top ten nations afflicted by terrorism. In Pakistan, the number of fatalities increased considerably from 292 in 2021 to 643, an increase of 120%. The BLA, the world's fastest-growing terrorist organisation, was responsible for one-third of these fatalities in Pakistan, a ninefold rise from the previous year. Nonetheless, the number of terrorist deaths would have climbed by 4% if Afghanistan hadn't been included in the index. Despite a decline in terrorist attacks and fatalities of 75% and 58%, respectively,...
China’s Big Week: Xi’s Third Time & Saudi-Iran Deal
Xi marks third term as President of China securing his position as one of the most powerful leaders in history. Meanwhile, China’s efforts to mediate peace talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran were successful as both countries agree to restore ties. On 10th March 2023, Chinese President Xi Jinping at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People received the formal endorsement of continuing his third term as the leader. He received a standing ovation after receiving 2,952 unanimous votes. Given that his reappointment was announced last fall, this came as a formality, but it is nonetheless an incredible accomplishment. It bolsters his authority and secures his position as the most powerful state leader of communist China since Mao Zedong. Almost half of the 26 officials appointed to the cabinet have been in the position since 2021 or earlier. (Data compiled by Bloomberg News). The only two new bureaucrats introduced over the weekend at the National People’s Congress were Li Shangfu, the defense minister, and Zheng Shanjie, head of the economic planning agency. On the same day (10th March 2023), China’s efforts to mediate a conversation to mend ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran were successful. Yet, before this revelation, nothing was known about China’s role as a facilitator in resolving protracted disputes between the two nations. Soon after, pictures surfaced of the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran shaking hands with Saudi National Security Advisor, Musaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban, with Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister standing in the middle. Wang reportedly said China continues to play its part as a host in handling geo-political issues and take responsibility as a nation for any help it can offer with the current situation. As a “good-faith” and “reliable” mediator, China has fulfilled its duties as a host for dialogue, Wang further added. Relations between the two countries have been severed since 2006 when there was a conflict between Israel and...
Announcement-Board of Advisors
CRSS is pleased to announce its new members of advisory board: Mr. Noaman Abdul Majid (Development Finance Advisor), Barrister Hassan Aslam Shad (Corporate and International Jurist), Dr. Masood Jogezai (Health System Specialist), Dr. Najam Khurshid (Environment, Development, Sustainability, and Resilience Advisor), and Dr. Salma Malik (Assistant Professor at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Quaid-e-Azam University). Mr. Syed Hasaini (Agricultural Development Economist), and Mr. Mohammad Nafees (Engineer and Process Evaluations Expert), will continue their advisory services for the Center. CRSS team welcomes all of them and looks forward to benefiting from the immense expertise, wisdom and guidance in the CRSS journey of counter-radicalization, cross-border people-to-people contacts, and economic connectivity dialogues.
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.