Current Projects

Mullah Omar’s Death: A Game Changer

The death of the Taliban supremo, Mullah Omar, has finally been confirmed by a spokesman for Afghanistan’s security services last month in July, 2015, putting all speculations regarding his mysterious disappearance to rest.  However, contrary to the Afghan assertion that Mullah Omar died in a hospital in Pakistan in April 2013, the Taliban spokesperson, Zahibullah Mujahid, in a statement to the Voice of America, clarified that the Taliban leader indeed died of an illness, however, he “did not leave Afghanistan since the US-Backed forces overthrew the group in 2001”. Within days, the Taliban shura – central council – elected Mulla Akhtar Mansoor, as Omar’s successor, a move that was instantly snubbed by Abdul Manan, the younger brother of Mulla Omar, for lack of transparency. The war of succession, it seems, is gradually intensifying, with Manan and his supporters calling for a grand meeting of the party to determine the new Supreme Leader. Regardless of how this issue settles in the days and weeks to come, Mulla Omar’s departure has dealt a severe blow to the Taliban movement. With the centre of gravity gone, the movement appears fractured and far from the cohesion that it has been known for. Mulla Omar’s death and the ensuing challenge to Mansoor’s leadership have interrupted – for all practical reasons – the peace talks that had begun on July 7 and at least eight Taliban commanders had landed in Islamabad on July 29 for the second round two. Download

Governance Community And Religion

As part of its counter-radicalization advocacy campaign for the promotion of secular governance and democratic values, the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) in partnership with Heinrich Böll Stiung organized a Dialogue Forum series titled “Governance, Community and Religion” (GOCORE). is was a sequel to the series titled “State, Religion and Democracy”, launched in 2013, which was a similar advocacy campaign aimed at de-radicalization and promotion of secular governance through a series of discussions involving Muslim scholars from Turkey, Indonesia and Malaysia. GOCORE, besides the Muslim scholars from Islamic countries such as Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia and Bangladesh, involved progressive Muslim scholars from multicultural societies in the Americas, Europe and Australia. The series of discussions were held at different universities across Pakistan, as well as with civil society groups, to underscore the need for democratizing the state conduct and politics rather than looking at them through the religious prism; and also to underpin the need for the separation of religion and politics into secular governance; and how the public and the private sectors are dealing with the attendant challenges in various countries. Download

Marked Decrease in Karachi Violence: CRSS Security Report

Below is a report published by The News, the largest English-language Pakistani newspaper, on the CRSS quarterly security report released early this month. The report, based on open-source information from national newspapers, underlined the marked decline in incidence of violence across the country in the last quarter, including that in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city on the Arabian Sea.  Security think tank’s report shows marked decrease in Karachi violence Karachi: The quarterly report of an Islamabad-based security think tank released on Tuesday showed a marked improvement in the law and order situation in Karachi and the law enforcement agencies’ operation against criminals in the city has been given the credit for it. Besides, the report prepared by the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) also stated that there has been a significant improvement in the security situation in the entire country. The ongoing operation in Karachi, spearheaded by the Rangers, has had a positive impact in terms of curbing organised crime – a combination of criminal gangs, political patronage and bureaucratic protection. “This combination has had its own impact on the city’s security landscape because the criminals hooked up with militants – both relying on one another for protection and support,” Muhammad Nafees, a senior research fellow at the CRSS who compiled the report, told The News. Launched in September 2013, the Karachi operation represents yet another dimension of the security crisis that Pakistan faces.“For the first time in history, the law enforcement agencies focused on the connection between crime, politics and militancy in a sustained way,” Nafees maintained. The report also highlighted the controversies and fierce reaction from various political groups, especially the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and the Pakistan People’s Party, because of the operation “Yet there is hardly any denial of the fact that political patronage of crime, facilitation and...

Of Judicial Commissions & Democratic Evolutions

Major Western democracies — despite many socio-political shortcomings, not alien to human society at large — stand out for continued democratic exercise and incessant accountability. Legal and institutional oversight of the government and parliament ensures preservation of and the respect for citizens’ fundamental rights — the yardstick for judging the performance of the various arms of government. It basically boils down to the rule of law and the respect for it — a basic prerequisite for instilling fear in the minds of violators and giving confidence to those who knock at the doors of courts for justice. Enquiry into controversies, largely fearless adjudication, a usually unconditional acceptance (by contestants) of such verdicts and near certainty of punishment (where applicable) are some of the hallmarks of present-day democratic societies and systems that stand on and draw strength from a legal regime i.e., the rule of law. This check and balance works as continued introspection to provide for course correction. These systems, evolved over decades, allow criticism and are open to correction as well. One such example in the US, for instance, is the National Security Archive (NSA), which is a non-governmental, pro-transparency organisation and the leading non-profit user of the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). It is located at The George Washington University in Washington. Through the FOIA, the NSA has been releasing documents that relate even to the mighty US security establishment, including the CIA. Although most cases date back decades, yet the access to information does underscore the importance of institutions born out of the American Constitution. On July 20, the NSA managed to acquire and release files that document the often rough-and-tumble, behind-the-scenes dynamics between Congress and the executive branch during the “Year of Intelligence (1975-76)”, when a congressional committee was trying to investigate allegations and revelations of abuses...

Of Judicial Commissions & Democratic Evolutions

Major Western democracies — despite many socio-political shortcomings, not alien to human society at large — stand out for continued democratic exercise and incessant accountability. Legal and institutional oversight of the government and parliament ensures preservation of and the respect for citizens’ fundamental rights — the yardstick for judging the performance of the various arms of government. It basically boils down to the rule of law and the respect for it — a basic prerequisite for instilling fear in the minds of violators and giving confidence to those who knock at the doors of courts for justice. Enquiry into controversies, largely fearless adjudication, a usually unconditional acceptance (by contestants) of such verdicts and near certainty of punishment (where applicable) are some of the hallmarks of present-day democratic societies and systems that stand on and draw strength from a legal regime i.e., the rule of law. This check and balance works as continued introspection to provide for course correction. These systems, evolved over decades, allow criticism and are open to correction as well. One such example in the US, for instance, is the National Security Archive (NSA), which is a non-governmental, pro-transparency organisation and the leading non-profit user of the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). It is located at The George Washington University in Washington. Through the FOIA, the NSA has been releasing documents that relate even to the mighty US security establishment, including the CIA. Although most cases date back decades, yet the access to information does underscore the importance of institutions born out of the American Constitution. On July 20, the NSA managed to acquire and release files that document the often rough-and-tumble, behind-the-scenes dynamics between Congress and the executive branch during the “Year of Intelligence (1975-76)”, when a congressional committee was trying to investigate allegations and revelations of abuses...

In Pakistan Execution Drive, Militants are a Minority

When Pakistan resumed executions after the massacre of 134 pupils at Peshawar’s Army Public School last December, the government promised hangings would help deter Islamist militants. A Reuters analysis of 180 people hanged since late December, however, shows that fewer than one in six were linked to militancy. Hangings resumed on Monday (today) after a hiatus for the holy month of Ramazan, and the findings raise questions over whether Pakistan's capital punishment is having the desired effect. Lawyers and rights groups say several cases that ended in execution had serious legal shortcomings, and although the campaign is broadly popular at home it has drawn condemnation from international partners. Within six months, Pakistan has become the world's third-ranking country in terms of executions, behind China and Iran. Of 180 people executed since January, 29 were convicted of assassinations or assassination attempts, sectarian murders, a hijacking or killing of security officials — falling under a broad definition of militancy. Almost all were hanged immediately after the massacre. Since then, most executions were of murderers with no militant links. Officials say the death penalty has deterred militant attacks. “You've seen the number of terrorist attacks going down drastically,” the prime minister's special assistant for law, Ashtar Ausaf Ali, told Reuters. “One of the reasons is fear. Fear of being executed.” Link in doubt He did not provide figures, but the executions coincide with a steady fall in militant attacks since 2010, when the military began seizing territory from Taliban insurgents. A further crackdown launched a year ago was another factor. There was no dramatic decline this year, however, suggesting the link to executions was “not major”, said Muhammad Amir Rana, head of the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, which runs a database on militant attacks. That showed 976 people died in the first six months of 2014, 747 in the second six months of 2014...

Will Narratives Change?

Ashraf Ghani finds himself pitched against deeply-entrenched beliefs about Pakistan in Afghanistan’s security establishment. The July 12 suicide car bombing near a military base in Afghanistan’s eastern province of Khost killed 20 people and drew instant flak from all those critical of President Ashraf Ghani’s reconciliation moves. The lethal attack provided an instant opportunity for detractors to criticize Taliban as well as Pakistan, which they insist remain unchanged on the geo-political front. None of the Taliban factions claimed responsibility for the latest attack but it did cause embarrassment to all those stakeholders who had left the Murree conference room on a rather positive note. They even discussed a ceasefire before and during the Eid as a possible confidence building measure. Where does this leave the intricately delicate peace process and what does it mean for major stakeholders such as Pakistan, USA and China? And will the Afghan narrative on Pakistan change in favour of a regionally-steered reconciliation process? Afghanistan, President Ghani and most of the security establishment find themselves caught in an intense tug of war; following stiff opposition to the counter-terror cooperation deal with Pakistan by the NDS chief Rahmatullah Nabil, representing the surreptitious Karzai legacy (comprising Pashtun nationalists and those Afghans critical of Pakistan) Ghani lost no time in appointing Ajmal Abedi as the deputy director of NDS. In an attempt to neutralize majority of the thundering MPs in the Woolasi Jirga – the parliament – opposition within the security apparatus the president also agreed to reviewing the MoU text. Dawlat Waziri said Pakistani helicopters were assisting the Taliban in the Paktika province But clearly, Ghani finds himself pitched against a deeply-entrenched narrative on Pakistan within Afghanistan’s security establishment and bureaucracy, exemplified by two recent statements. The deputy spokesman for the Ministry of...

Q2 Security Report – 2015

Second Quarter 2015 - Introduction A year after the Pakistani military launched the multi-pronged counter-terror Operation Zarb-e-Azb in the North Waziristan region, and nearly six months into the National Action Plan (NAP) since December 25, 2014, two outcomes have become significant. Firstly, an overall reduction in militancy-induced violence, and secondly, the adoption of new strategies by divided and disrupted militants groups, largely operating in the border regions next to Afghanistan. Their sleeping cadres, however, remain active in many urban centers and continue to target state and civilian infrastructure. The counter-crime operation, spearheaded by the military, in Karachi, the largest city in Pakistan, has had a positive impact on organized crime – a combination of criminal gangs, political patronage and bureaucratic protection. This nexus has had its own debilitating impact on the security landscape because the criminals hooked up with militants – both relying on one another for protection and support. This way, the Karachi operation, launched in September 2013, symbolizes yet another dimension of the security crisis that Pakistan faces. For the first time in history, Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs) went after the nexus between crime, politics and militancy in a sustained way. These efforts, in some cases, have run into controversies and invited fierce reaction from various political groups, particularly the MQM and the ruling PPP. Yet there is hardly any denial of the fact that political patronage of crime, facilitation and acquiescence (by the police and bureaucracy) and their linkages with religio-political or religio-militant groups have contributed to the security crisis. The following statistical review offers a glimpse of the consequences of religious violence, financial and social crime, their links with militants, and foreign-policy induced terrorism. This report also explains how the military-led counter-terror operations in the northwest and...

Development of Chabahar Port and the Strategic Turf Wars between Regional Rivals

The landlocked Afghanistan has been using the port of Karachi in Pakistan for its international trade for decades but with the development of the strategically located Chabahar port of Iran, the situation has taken a turn to the disadvantage of Pakistan. Chabahar port is located in the Sistan and Baluchestan Province of Iran, some 72 kilometers west of Pakistan's Gwadar port. The Chabahar port has dented Pakistan’s centrality to the Afghanistan’s external trade and Central Asia as a major portion of its transit business has been lost to Iran and now India.[1] Recently, Afghanistan finalized a tripartite trade agreement with Iran and India on using the Chabahar port as an alternative route,[2] which is expected to increase bilateral trade from $700-800 million to $3 billion.[3] Over the last decade, the Iranians have invested considerably in the development of Chabahar. A 600 kilometer long highway linking Chabahar to Zahidan in Iran’s north, only 240km from Malik on the Iran-Afghanistan border, is already operational. India has also already spent $100 million on building a 220-kilometer Zaranj-Delaram highway since 2009 in the southwestern Nimroz province of Afghanistan which is 700 km away from southeastern Iran and can be easily extended to be linked to Chabahar.[4] Iran has also started constructing a railway line from Chabahar to Zahidan where it will connect with the Iranian rail network and to Central Asia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Iran foresees Chabahar Port as an instrument in their policy to evade international isolation and has invested substantial resources to upgrade it with the strategic objective to create an alternative to Bandar Abbas, which is located further west across the state of Hormuz. Iran fears that any blockade of the Straits of Hormuz would create challenges for its trade and commerce activities.[5] The Iranian government has also set up a Free Trade Zone at Chabahar to attract investors where CIS countries and...

Terrorism hits Foreign Investment in Pakistan

Empirical studies conducted by independent economists suggest that a slight uptick in the “perceived risk of terrorism” can lead to an “outsized reduction” in the FDI that a country receives, causing a “significant damage” to its economy. Writing in the latest edition of Finance and Development, a premier quarterly publication of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), economists Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, Todd Sandler and Javed Younas noted that increased terrorism in a particular area tends to depress the expected return on capital invested there, which shifts investment elsewhere. “This reduces the stock of productive capital and the flow of productivity-enhancing technology to the affected nation,” the economists wrote. They reviewed the depressing effects of terrorism on 122 economies of the world for 1970-2011 and concluded that most countries with more than average terrorist incidents received lower FDI than the overall average among the 122 countries. In the case of Pakistan, for example, the economists’ findings hold true. Pakistan’s average of 61.17 domestic terrorist incidents for the period under review far exceeds the average of 7.51 for the 122 economies. The FDI Pakistan received on average over the same period constituted 0.79% of its GDP against the much higher average of 2.9% for the entire group of 122 economies, which proves the economists’ hypothesis.  ( In 2014-15, Pakistan received only $709.3 million in  Foreign Direct Investment -FDI ,  down over 58% from the preceding fiscal year and also marks the lowest point since 2002-03.) Can the persistent low levels of the FDI in recent years be attributed to the unending wave of terrorist incidents in Pakistan? It is difficult to assess causation, they say, but the study suggests a “troubling association between terrorism and depressed aid and foreign direct investment” for developing economies. Another study conducted by the same group of economists using data from 78 economies for 1984-2008 revealed...

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TESTIMONIALS

I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.

Soniya Shams

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, Peshawar