The emotional outbursts following the canceled meeting between the Indian and Pakistani national security advisers have given way to a more rational assessment of what went wrong. It has probably dawned on the hawks in Delhi that they had associated unrealistic expectations with the Ufa declaration. Some Indian analysts, such as Siddharth Varadarajan and Venod Sharma, agree that while India pulled a coup in Russia by making Pakistan agree to discuss terrorism “only”, it was grossly naive on their part to assume that Islamabad would skip the issue altogether. Rather than being restricted to a one-point agenda, the Ufa declaration should have been a package – the way such agreements have been in the past, they say. Some were apprehensive much before the talks were scheduled. The Indian establishment “erred in plugging it as a Pakistani capitulation of sorts by saying things like Kashmir wasn’t mentioned”, Shekhar Gupta wrote in India Today on July 16. He went on to recall what leading BJP leaders have been saying about dealing with Pakistan. “Will it be ten heads for a head, as Sushma Swaraj said once, or kill five for one, as Rajnath Singh says to his BSF troops now? Or will it be to bring Pakistan to the negotiating table? That’s a call Narendra Modi has to make. And if his call is the latter, he has to press on, ignoring tactical distractions and keeping his political capital for the big decision.” India and Pakistan ignored their sociopolitical conditions in the Ufa declaration Gupta cited President Barack Obama’s deals with Iran and Cuba as examples of big decisions. “Obama chose his big objectives early enough: settling the nuclear disputes with Iran, normalising relations with Cuba, and on the domestic front, Obama-care. Once this course was set, he started pulling out of existing distractions, Iraq and Afghanistan included, stayed generally out of Ukraine, whatever the provocation, and left the North Koreans in their not-so-splendid, self-imposed isolation.”...

Flanked by tribal areas from three sides, the Peshawar region experienced death, destruction and trauma between 2009 and 2013. During this turbulent period, terrorists, militants and criminals piled misery on the city as state security institutions were in retreat. Recurring violence forced most senior police officials to give up their designated areas of duty and retreat into the police lines in the heart of Peshawar — more or less the way paramilitary forces had opted to give up control of many of their installations in Waziristan in those traumatic years. But the last 18 months have seen a remarkable turnaround as themilitary pounded and degraded the TTP-affiliated groups spread all over Fata and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P), and the police in K-P regained considerable ground it had lost to the TTP and the dubious Lashkar-e-Islam. Terrorist incidents in the first eight months of 2015, for instance, have gone down from a total of 383 in 2014 to 153. Casualties as a result of terrorist violence in K-P stand at about 75 compared to the 145 in 2014. This marks a decline of 60 per cent and 70 per cent, respectively. Similarly, abductions for ransom have decreased by 45 per cent. The combination of surgical military operations in Fata as part of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, and a proactive police force led by an autonomous police chief — Nasir Durrani — appears to have considerably dented the ability of terrorist and criminal gangs. A combination of defensive and offensive measures has helped the authorities preempt, prevent and discourage non-state actors who once operated without much fear. This may be the proverbial lull before the storm but residents of Peshawar, Dera Ismail Khan, the second largest city in K-P, acknowledge the improved policing. Both the military and the police in K-P also suffered because of HajiMangal Bagh, the head of the double-gaming Lashkar-e-Islam nestled in the Khyber Agency. But the anvil and hammer — the military acting as the latter — strategy...

by Zeeshan Salahuddin, Senior Research Fellow, CRSS Khyber Pukhtunkhwa (KP) has seen unprecedented death, destruction of infrastructure, and trauma since 2004, which became especially pronounced between 2008 and 2013. This period saw the state institutions and law enforcement agencies conceding ground to terrorists and criminals, retreating into the urban centers. The military offensives have struck a lethal blow to the ever-expanding nexus of this militant enterprise, regaining lost territory and establishing government writ in these areas. Additionally, under Inspector General Nasir Durrani, the pro-active policing in KP has concurrently resulted in a demonstrable decrease in terrorism and related deaths. The turnaround in the last 18 months is nothing short of remarkable. This police-military combination is effective at the moment, but it is not sustainable. The military is extremely capable of surgical strikes and methodically removing the terrorist threat in a theater of war. However, the military has no place (or responsibility) to ensure long-term peace in settled areas. Under the autonomous direction of IG Durrani, the continued role of the police in the province is necessary for long-term peace, but must be reinforced through the civil structures. The recent local body elections in the KP, the final phase of which is underway today, saw Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI) emerge victorious in several district councils. This devolution of powers presents with a golden opportunity to not only strengthen community-led local governments, but also to aid in the creation and monitoring of safe neighborhoods at the grassroots level. Municipal and communal policing, monitoring and grievance addressal are crucial tiers missing from KP’s governance structures, and proper implementation can build upon and accelerate this momentum. The counter-terrorism experience in KP is instructive. It proves that despite legal handicaps, a politically empowered and operationally...

The regional geopolitical dynamics are changing, and a growing China-Russia proximity is a major indicator of that transformation. The week-long military drills that began along the coast of Russia’s Primorsky region in the Peter the Great Gulf on August 22, reflect the growing collaboration between the two countries. Some 22 vessels, 20 aircraft, 40 armored vehicles and 500 marines from Russia and China are participating in the active phase of the ‘Joint Sea 2015 II’ drills in the Sea of Japan, off the coast of Russian far eastern city of Vladivostok. The goal is to strengthen anti-sabotage, anti-submarine, anti-vessel and anti-aircraft defense. Gunnery drills with various types of surface, underwater and aerial targets are also part of the games. Earlier in May, Moscow and Beijing held a joint nine-ship naval exercise in the Mediterranean, “to consolidate and develop China-Russia all-round strategic coordination and partnership, to deepen the pragmatic and friendly cooperation between the Chinese and Russian militaries, and… to further enhance their capability of jointly coping with maritime security threats,” according to a press conference by the Chinese Defense Ministry. Deep defense cooperation with India weighed heavily on Moscow Pakistan’s planned acquisition of advanced Russian Mi-35 attack helicopters and the Russian offers of support in the power sector may also be seen as a reflection of the growing China-Russia cooperation. The move may be seen as a significant shift in Moscow’s policy towards Pakistan. Clearly, the deep defense cooperation with India weighed heavily on Moscow for decades, but the expanding India-US corporate sector cooperation perhaps works to the advantage of Pakistan, which is desperate for economic revival and development. Primarily designed for attack and military transport missions, the Mi-35 ‘Hind E’ multi-role gunship helicopter is manufactured by Rostvertol, a subsidiary of Russian Helicopters. Moscow’s decision is probably...