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Monthly Drone Report: Total Drone Strikes under Obama in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen now 491 after September Attacks

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. Key points: - CIA and Pakistan Air Force drones hit Pakistan’s tribal areas - US strikes continue in Yemen as the civil war rages - Al Shabaab continue to kill peacekeepers and civilians in Somalia - The three drone strikes in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen in September means a total of 491 drone strikes there under President Obama - US air power helps stem the Taliban tide in Afghanistan - Medecins Sans Frontiers trauma centre in Kunduz hit in October air strike - The Bureau publishes investigation into UK’s Watchkeeper programme as Cameron doubles RAF drone fleet 2. The Bureau’s numbers: Recorded US drone strikes to date Recorded US air and cruise missile strikes to date * The Bureau’s estimates are based predominantly on open sources information like media reports. Sometimes it is not possible to reconcile details in different reports. This is why use ranges for our record of casualties and, in the case of Yemen and Somalia, our strike tallies. ** The US has only carried out drone strikes in Pakistan. 3. Bureau analysis for September 2015: Two drone strikes in Yemen plus one in Pakistan during September means the total strikes in the US’s covert drone war in those countries and Somalia during Barack Obama’s presidency now stands at 491. September was the second consecutive month when US air and ground forces reportedly came to the aid of the Afghan army and security forces in their struggle to contain a brutal insurgency. US air attacks continued into October when a series of strikes hit a hospital run by international NGO Medecins Sans Frontier, killing at least 19 people, including 12 staff members. A CIA drone strike hit Pakistan killing five or six people in the same month that Pakistan jets killed civilians in South Waziristan and the first Pakistan Air Force drone strike reportedly killed three people. In Yemen the US continued drone strikes while the Saudi Arabia-led coalition of Arab and African states continued its air and...

Sabawoon Showcase: KP/FATA Education Budget

September 28, 2015, Peshawar: The Center for Research and Security Studies’ (CRSS) flagship radio program Sabawoon (Dawn), on Monday, focused on the education budget for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The allocation and utilization of the education budget were the key points of discussion during this program. The program was aired under the theme “Jarga Marraka” (Public Dialogue). Mr. Malik Masood, Program Manager at the Center for Governance and Public Accountability, participated in the program as a guest. A field report from Khyber Agency on the program’s central theme was also aired during the show. The story highlighted the views of the locals about the education system in KP/FATA, and the general lack of public awareness regarding the education budget allocations. Government initiatives for the improvement of education infrastructure, on-ground use of the allocated funds and lack of FATA parliamentarian’s role in the development of FATA were additional themes discussed. Mr. Qaisar Jamal (Minister National Assembly, Frontier Regions) said “Our education sector is in ruins because of the talibanization and on-going war against militancy. It is very hard to utilize the funds, because political agents have complete control over it and they are of the view that it is useless to utilize the funds in the current conditions.” Seven listeners participated in the show via live calls. There was a near unanimous call for increasing the budget for the education sector, and better utilization of allocated funds. One caller, Abdullah from Kurram Agency, FATA, said, “FATA is the complete opposite of KP. FATA has remained the victim of terrorism and talibanization which has destroyed the educational infrastructure”. Another caller said “Education is the key to success. Parents and the government should also concentrate on it as well.” A third caller, from Khyber Agency, said, “The public has little awareness about the budget as...

China, Pakistan ‘Iron Brothers’: Impressive Display of Warmth and Hospitality at Anniversary Function

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 - China and Pakistan are “particular friends, Iron brothers”, and the ties of the two countries is “all-weather strategic partnership” said the Chinese consul general Ma Yaou welcoming guests at the 66th anniversary day function of his country in Karachi Monday evening. Warmth and hospitality, felt for decades from top to bottom in both countries, was again reflected as the consul general, his wife, and others greeted the guests at the entry point with lovely smiles. Warm handshakes, and even embrace. It was indeed amazing to see the strong bonds, binding the two Asian States together, by the huge turn-out of all kinds of people from Governor Dr Ishratul Ebad Khan, Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah, todiplomats, eminent businessmen, and media elite etc. Prominent among them were the acting consul general of USA, Chad Peterson, counterparts from France, Russian Federation, Indonesia, Bangla Desh, Iran, Sri Lanka, and from Oman, Francoise, Oleg Avedeev, Hadi Santoso, Noor-i-Hilal, H.M.B Herath, The KCCI chief, Iftikhar Vohra, Dr Farooq Sattar, and Nasreen Jalil (from MQM), Zia Ispahani, Kader jaffer, Dr Ikthiar Beg, Athar Iqbal, and many more. Extending a warm welcome, and sincere regards to all, including Chinese nationals, overseas Chinese, and those working on developing China-Pak ties, Ma Yaou recalled that his country “experienced extraordinary voyage and obtained outstanding achievements after 66 years of the founding” of the great country. He added that China not only solved the problem of food and clothing, but also ranks No 2 on the map of world economy with its own “suitable developing style”. His country not only realized self-development stability, but also was vigorously involved in the international society to make contributions to global peace and prosperity. Chinese GDP reached 10 trillion US dollars in 2014 and in the first half of 2015, its economy grew at 7 percent of mid-high increase with 30 percent contribution to...

Why China Is Selling Submarines to Pakistan

As previously covered by The Diplomat, Pakistan announced earlier this year that it has agreed to purchase eight modified Type 41 Yuan-class diesel-electric submarines from China. These boats will provide Islamabad with much-needed Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) capabilities against the Indian Navy in case of war. This would be especially useful in case of an Indian blockade of Pakistan’s coast and could give New Delhi grounds to pause before deploying its planned new aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant. A Yuan-class submarine is undoubtedly a great piece of kit. It is China’s first class of submarines to incorporate an indigenously designed- and constructed Air-Independent Propulsion system (AIP), giving it a cruise speed of 18 knots and an operational range of 8,000 nautical miles. Although the export version of the Yuan, named the S-20, does not automatically come fitted with the AIP, Pakistan has apparently been able to secure it for its subs. Furthermore, the Yuan is integrated “with advanced noise reduction techniques including anechoic tiles, passive/active noise reduction and an asymmetrical seven-blade skewed propeller.” Combined with the AIP, this makes the Yuan-class the quietest non-nuclear sub in the PLAN. Furthermore, theYuan has an impressive set of teeth. Aside from six tubes firing standard 553mm torpedoes, it is equipped with the YJ-8/8A Anti-Ship Cruise Missile (ASCM). While this weapon only has a maximum range of between 30-42 km, there are plans to equip the Yuans with the YJ-18 ASCM. These missiles have a reported range of 220 km and, represent a real A2/AD “force multiplier” for the Yuan. Whether Pakistan will attempt to acquire these missiles, or opt to go for another option (such as their indigenously produced Hatf VII Babur) is unknown. The sale raises one crucial question: why is China selling Pakistan these subs? There is undoubtedly a commercial aspect to this transaction (it is unknown how much Pakistan will pay for these boats,...

Why Pakistan’s First Drone Strike Should Worry Obama

by Michael Boyle In early September, the government of Pakistan joined an exclusive club. It became the fourth government in the world – following the United States, the United Kingdom and Israel – to use an armed drone to conduct a targeted killing. In doing so, it shattered the assumption that armed drones and the practice of targeted killing will diffuse slowly to the rest of the world. As an scholar of terrorism and political violence, I see this new deployment of drones as more than a mere tactical move by Pakistan. This incident should make Washington reconsider whether its use of drones for targeted killing will soon usher in unpredictable or even deadly consequences. Pacifying Waziristan Unlike the US and UK, the Pakistani Army used a drone to kill enemies on its own territory. The strikes were part of its long-running campaign to pacify Waziristan. Pakistan carried out drone strikes in North Waziristan. REUTERS Since August, the army has been engaged in a bitter campaign to expel militants nested in the Shawal Valley, an important conduit of weapons and personnel into Afghanistan. Despite being supported by manned aircraft, the Pakistani ground forces have been stalled due to fierce resistance from Taliban-linked tribal forces in this mountainous valley. The drone strikes are against “high profile terrorists,” according to ISPRDirector-General Asim Saleem Bajwa. They should be seen as an effort to break the will of the militants and clear the region. Intense pressure from the US For years, the government of Pakistan has come under intense pressure from the US to launch ground offensives in its tribal regions to stem the flow of fighters into Afghanistan. It has suffered heavy casualties doing so. The toll to militant groups – more than 3,000 were killed from this offensive in Waziristan alone – has been high. In the future, drones could be an attractive tool for a Pakistani government eager to please the US but also wary of risking blood and money on...

Why Pakistan's First Drone Strike Should Worry Obama

by Michael Boyle In early September, the government of Pakistan joined an exclusive club. It became the fourth government in the world – following the United States, the United Kingdom and Israel – to use an armed drone to conduct a targeted killing. In doing so, it shattered the assumption that armed drones and the practice of targeted killing will diffuse slowly to the rest of the world. As an scholar of terrorism and political violence, I see this new deployment of drones as more than a mere tactical move by Pakistan. This incident should make Washington reconsider whether its use of drones for targeted killing will soon usher in unpredictable or even deadly consequences. Pacifying Waziristan Unlike the US and UK, the Pakistani Army used a drone to kill enemies on its own territory. The strikes were part of its long-running campaign to pacify Waziristan. Pakistan carried out drone strikes in North Waziristan. REUTERS Since August, the army has been engaged in a bitter campaign to expel militants nested in the Shawal Valley, an important conduit of weapons and personnel into Afghanistan. Despite being supported by manned aircraft, the Pakistani ground forces have been stalled due to fierce resistance from Taliban-linked tribal forces in this mountainous valley. The drone strikes are against “high profile terrorists,” according to ISPRDirector-General Asim Saleem Bajwa. They should be seen as an effort to break the will of the militants and clear the region. Intense pressure from the US For years, the government of Pakistan has come under intense pressure from the US to launch ground offensives in its tribal regions to stem the flow of fighters into Afghanistan. It has suffered heavy casualties doing so. The toll to militant groups – more than 3,000 were killed from this offensive in Waziristan alone – has been high. In the future, drones could be an attractive tool for a Pakistani government eager to please the US but also wary of risking blood and money on...

Why Pakistan's First Drone Strike Should Worry Obama

by Michael Boyle In early September, the government of Pakistan joined an exclusive club. It became the fourth government in the world – following the United States, the United Kingdom and Israel – to use an armed drone to conduct a targeted killing. In doing so, it shattered the assumption that armed drones and the practice of targeted killing will diffuse slowly to the rest of the world. As an scholar of terrorism and political violence, I see this new deployment of drones as more than a mere tactical move by Pakistan. This incident should make Washington reconsider whether its use of drones for targeted killing will soon usher in unpredictable or even deadly consequences. Pacifying Waziristan Unlike the US and UK, the Pakistani Army used a drone to kill enemies on its own territory. The strikes were part of its long-running campaign to pacify Waziristan. Pakistan carried out drone strikes in North Waziristan. REUTERS Since August, the army has been engaged in a bitter campaign to expel militants nested in the Shawal Valley, an important conduit of weapons and personnel into Afghanistan. Despite being supported by manned aircraft, the Pakistani ground forces have been stalled due to fierce resistance from Taliban-linked tribal forces in this mountainous valley. The drone strikes are against “high profile terrorists,” according to ISPRDirector-General Asim Saleem Bajwa. They should be seen as an effort to break the will of the militants and clear the region. Intense pressure from the US For years, the government of Pakistan has come under intense pressure from the US to launch ground offensives in its tribal regions to stem the flow of fighters into Afghanistan. It has suffered heavy casualties doing so. The toll to militant groups – more than 3,000 were killed from this offensive in Waziristan alone – has been high. In the future, drones could be an attractive tool for a Pakistani government eager to please the US but also wary of risking blood and money on...

‘I don’t Know How I Survived’

People were pouring in from both sides, and piling on top of one another. One moment, I had enough room to extend both arms, and the next, I was in a human vise, unable to breathe and unable to move, in blind panic,” says Salahuddin, who survived a Hajj stampede during the ritual stoning of Satan in 1991. “The mob pushed me against the fence on one side, I managed to grab one of the bars and pull myself close to it. I pushed my head through the bars and could finally breathe.” According to the latest figures released by the Saudi health minister, at least 1,100 people have lost their lives in the horrific stampede during the Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia this year. At least 42 of them were of Pakistani origin. Although this was the deadliest stampede in over two decades, stampedes and associated deaths are a common trait of the annual event. Edbert Hsu at John Hopkins School of Medicine conducted a study of stampedes in 2010. According to his research, 215 human stampedes occurred between 1980 and 2010, resulting in 7,000 deaths and 14,000 injuries. If the figure is accurate, over a third of these deaths, or nearly 36%, have resulted from six major stampedes during Hajj. Every year, nearly two million Muslims congregate in Mecca, Mina, Arafat, and Muzalfah for the various stages of the pilgrimage, completed over four days. This influx of pilgrims obviously presents a range of operational and logistical challenges for the Saudi administration, officially responsible for the upkeep and management of the holy sites. “Back then, there was no management to speak of. We were provided no facilities, no bathrooms; people would defecate and urinate wherever they could find the space. At night, even at the doors of Mosque Al-Khaif, it would be pitch-black.” Salahuddin seems visibly upset, and shudders as he recalls the stampede he had witnessed. “That day when we entered the bridge to stone Satan, two groups collided. There were no signs directing traffic and no officials...

Security Report July- September, 2015

Third Quarter 2015 - Introduction Pakistan’s war on terror and criminal gangs continued to expand during the July-September quarter as security forces extended their operations to thus far untouched areas. Military/civilian law enforcement agencies unveiled alleged links among certain local and foreign non-state actors. In counterterrorism raids, security officials claimed to have tracked and nabbed terror financiers and agents of the Indian intelligence outfit Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) from various locations in Karachi, the country’s commercial and financial capital.

Education or Organised Extortion?

The recent legal action by the regional office of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) against Dr Ihsan Ali, vice-chancellor (VC) of Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, has sent shock waves across academic circles in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P), and raised many an eyebrow. Other targets of NAB included Dr Syed Sakhawat Shah, former VC of Hazara University, Dr Muhammad Aziz Khan, chairman of National Institute of Medical Sciences (NIMS), Abbottabad, and Professor Humayun Zia, ex-chairman of the Higher Education Regulatory Authority. A NAB statement alleged that Professor Ali and Dr Shah granted affiliation to NIMS Abbottabad without a mandate enshrined in the Khyber Medical University Act of 2006. NIMS, according to the NAB statement, lacked medical faculty and the former VCs conducted examinations at the “illegal” institute. Together, they not only deprived parents of their hard-earned money (to the tune of Rs550 million), but also played with the future of unsuspecting students. This brazen action against prominent academicians, which many say is Pashtun-centric, has kicked up a storm. For these voices, the Pashtun have always been the victims as a consequence of the Soviet-Russian aggression in Afghanistan, the US response to it and then the post-9/11 Operation Enduring Freedom, and continue to suffer even now. Others have likened Dr Ali’s arrest to an assault on an academic institution. One would assume NAB did its homework before going after three noted professors. The onus of proving the former VCs guilty now rests with the watchdog. It will have to justify its actions that have tainted the image of the accused with charges of illegal, power-abusive conduct. Now, regardless of the veracity of charges against the three academics, what we all need to ponder over and probe are matters such as the manipulation of university charters, dubious affiliations, questionable admission policies, non-compliance with the criteria laid down by the Higher Education...