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Climate Induced Security Threats to Pakistan
The Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) extends its sincere gratitude to the core research team members whose dedication and expertise were instrumental in this research report. We are grateful to Elsa Imdad for exhibiting exceptional leadership and a knack for innovation as the research lead; Zehra Zaidi for conducting the literature review and desk research with meticulous attention to detail and updated knowledge; Mustafa Malik for the skillfully crafted research questions, finalizing the study design, and creating informative infographics; Junaid Khan for providing invaluable peer review and critical feedback throughout the research; Ramsha Saghir for carrying out the key informant interviews with exceptional skill and insight; and Abbas Raza for doing thorough desk research that greatly enriched the findings. The Center is also grateful to the subject matter experts whose contributions greatly enhanced the quality and credibility of this report. We are deeply grateful to Dr. Salma Malik, Dr. Uzair Hashmi, Dr. Najam Khurshid, and Zahra Khan Durrani, whose participation in the key informant interviews provided insightful analysis and invaluable guidance throughout the research process. Finally, we extend our gratitude to Mr. Ali Tauqeer and Mr. Syed Amanullah Hussaini for their critical input and final review of the report. ACRONYMS PREFACE Little is known or deemed serious on the grassroots level about the nature of climate-induced social and political stresses and how they may interact with one another and with other endogenous to society to destabilize nations and regions, despite the growing consensus that climate change has the potential to disrupt societies’ milieu and ultimately threaten global security. For the past two decades, Pakistan has consistently ranked among the top 10 most vulnerable countries on the Climate Risk Index with 10,000 people dying from climate-related disasters and 173 extreme weather events causing financial damages...
Countering Chinese growing footprint in the Middle-East
National Security Advisors of the US, UAE, and India met with the Saudi crown prince to strengthen relations between the countries. The timing of the meeting is interesting as it happened soon after China made headlines in the Middle East’s diplomatic scene by mending ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. On May 7, 2023, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed Bin Salman, and the National Security Advisers of India, the UAE, and the US met in Riyadh to look into strategies to make West Asia more “interconnected” with the Indian subcontinent. They discussed ways to “strengthen relations and ties between the three countries in a way that enhances growth and stability in the region,” according to the Saudi State news agency. Similarly, the White House issued a statement stating that the Saudi crown prince, along with his Emirati and Indian counterparts, met with Jake Sullivan, US National Security Advisor, in Riyadh to “advance their shared vision of a more secure and prosperous Middle East region interconnected with India and the world.” Sullivan also reviewed significant progress on consolidating the now 15-month-long truce in Yemen and welcomed ongoing UN-led efforts to bring the war to a close. According to the communiqué, he also said he was looking forward to having more discussions with Ajit Doval, Indian Security Advisor, outside of the Quad Summit in Australia this month. Furthermore, Sullivan praised the Crown Prince for Saudi Arabia’s assistance in assisting US citizens fleeing Sudan. The four delegates decided to maintain regular consultations and follow up on the key issues discussed throughout the day. It’s interesting to note the timing of the situation as the four nations came together soon after China made headlines in the Middle East’s diplomatic scene by mending relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with Washington left out of the discussion. Riyadh and Beijing are also working together more closely on China’s Belt and Road infrastructure...
Sri Lanka’s Proposed Anti-Terrorism Act: A Threat to Fundamental Rights and Civil Society Protests
The proposed Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) in Sri Lanka has been criticized for violating fundamental rights, targeting civil society protests, and granting authorities arbitrary powers. Opponents, including international organizations and opposition leaders, argue that the bill is undemocratic and authoritarian. The article suggests that the government should repeal the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) and impose a moratorium on its use until new counterterrorism legislation that upholds human rights is drafted. The infamous Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) in Sri Lanka, put into effect in 1979 and widely blamed for widespread torture and arbitrary detentions, will be replaced by the new proposed Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA). However, the new bill has several features worse than the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) that it intends to replace. It appears to grant the President, Police, and Military, great authority to detain individuals without evidence, to make vaguely defined forms of speech a criminal offense, and arbitrarily outlaw gatherings and organisations without any judicial review. “The government has decided to present its proposed Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) to parliament for debate on April 25. The decision to delay calling for a vote on it, and not using the government’s majority to bulldoze its decision is to be welcomed, “said Jehan Perera, Executive Director at National Peace Council of Sri Lanka. (Colombo Telegraph). Safeguarding citizens’ fundamental rights must always be a priority in any legal reform. According to the constitution, the government shares the people’s power with them for their benefit, but both of these goals are not met by the ATA. While some believe that the decision could be on April 25th, others are of the view that the timing is not in favor right now, considering the country is going through its worst economic crisis, witnessed several activities threatening its national security, and has received international pressure and...
China Declares its Afghan Policy, Calls for Bilateral and Multilateral Cooperation
Post-Taliban takeover, many have speculated on China’s stance towards Afghanistan and the Taliban. China remained involved in Afghanistan vis-a-vis trade, investment, and setting up mining and other industries. However, since the Taliban took over, China has not openly declared its Afghan policy. The much-anticipated declaration of the Chinese position on Afghanistan is finally out, urging the de facto authorities for prudent governance, safeguarding human rights, and underpinning the need for bilateral and multilateral cooperation in economy, trade, counter-terrorism, refugee crisis, etc. On Wednesday, the Chinese embassy in Kabul issued a comprehensive statement depicting how it views and plans to deal with Afghanistan. According to the statement, first and foremost, China respects Afghanistan’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. It also respects the Afghan people’s right to make their own decisions and practice religion and customs. China “never meddles in internal affairs of Afghanistan, never seeks its self-interest in Afghanistan, and never pursues so-called sphere of influence,” said the communique. The statement further enlisted ten points: ● Supporting moderate and prudent governance in Afghanistan. ● Supporting peace and reconstruction of Afghanistan. ● Supporting Afghanistan in countering terrorism resolutely and forcefully. ● Calling for greater bilateral and multilateral counter-terrorism cooperation. ● Working together to fight terrorism, separatism, and extremism in Afghanistan. ● Urging the US to live up to its commitments and responsibilities to Afghanistan. ● Opposing external interference and infiltration in Afghanistan. ● Strengthening international and regional coordination on the Afghan issue. ● Facilitating solutions to Afghanistan’s humanitarian and refugee issues. ● Supporting Afghanistan’s fight against narcotics. China hopes that Afghanistan would “build an open and inclusive political set-up, adopt moderate and...
Tsai-McCarthy Meeting- US-China Relations Under Scrutiny
While the US has downplayed Tsai’s visit and dismissed concerns that the meeting will escalate matters with China, it is evident that China feels otherwise. It stands by its One China Policy and considers Taiwan an inalienable part of China’s territory, whereas the US continues to be Taiwan’s most important international backer hence further straining US-China relations. On 5th April 2023, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy met Taiwan President Tsai Ing at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California. This highly anticipated event also marks history as it is the first time a Taiwan President visited the US to meet the US House Speaker. The visit provided a platform for both leaders to promote US-Taiwan relations. “The friendship between the people of Taiwan and America is a matter of profound importance to the free world. It is critical to maintain economic freedom, peace and regional stability,” McCarthy said. “We’re stronger when we are together,” Tsai said. “In our efforts to protect our way of life, Taiwan is grateful to have the United States by our side.” McCarthy emphasized the following crucial aspects; to further cement the relationship between the two parties. First and foremost, continue selling Taiwan guns and make sure they do it effectively. The second goal is to improve economic collaboration, particularly in business and technology. And finally, promote shared values on the world stage. Contrary to this, US and China relations have only intensified since last year, with the Taiwan issue being a central conflict of interest. Before the meeting, the Consulate of China in Los Angeles warned the US that such a meeting would not be “conducive to regional peace, security and stability” and it would “undermine the political foundation” of China-US relations. The meeting also prompted an angry reaction from Beijing, as a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry said, “China firmly opposes and strongly condemns it.” China stands by its decision on...
TAIWAN AT THE CROSSROAD
The future of Taiwan’s relationship with China and the United States, will be influenced by a complex interplay of economic, political, cultural, and strategic factors, as well as evolving attitudes and priorities within Taiwan. Taiwan faces limited options and high risks, regardless of the path it takes Taiwan is at a crossroads in its relationship with China and the United States. The country’s future as an independent democratic nation hinges on whether it chooses to strengthen its ties with the US or integrate economically with China. Recent tension between China and Taiwan has increased the possibility of Chinese aggression, which has led to a renewed interest in the concept of One Zhonghua, a confederation of independent Chinese states. Former Taiwanese Vice President Annette Lu has proposed the creation of a Chinese-Taiwanese commonwealth that would be economically integrated but politically separate, an idea that has been discussed for many years but has gained renewed attention due to the conflict in Ukraine. This proposal speaks to the unresolved question of what the relationship between China and Taiwan should be. There is a divided opinion in the country on how to deal with a potential threat of Chinese invasion. The level of devastation such an invasion could bring to the country has caused serious concerns since Taiwan is an island that would run out of natural gas in just eight days if blockaded. Additionally, the Chinese military is nearly 12 times larger than Taiwan. Taiwan’s prosperity is partially due to its role as a gateway to China, the world’s largest market. With rivalries between the United States and China escalating, Taiwanese citizens are grappling with deciding whether to prepare for a potential conflict like Ukraine or negotiate a deal to avoid it. Each option has its own consequences. Most Taiwanese people desire to maintain the current status quo of undeclared, de facto independence. Nonetheless, approximately 40% of the recent...
Women Pay Highest Price for Climate Change
Affected most due to climate change, women’s rights and well-being are overlooked in climate policy-making on national and international levels. Already subject to financial, social, and cultural barriers, climate change has added to the miseries of women around the world. Climate policies should be at the heart of gender equality goals and vice versa. Pakistan is ranked first in Asia according to a recent assessment of 87 low- and middle-income countries on the CGIAR researchers’ hotspot index for gender inequality, agriculture, and climate change. These hotspots are defined as areas where climate hazards, women’s exposure to climate hazards because of their involvement in agriculture, and women’s vulnerability due to prevailing gender inequalities intersect. Women constitute 49% of the country’s population but do not have equal access to resources or opportunities. “This inequality contributes to their vulnerability,” says Aisha Khan, head of the Mountain and Glacier Protection Organization and Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change. Across the globe, women are reported to have been major and more destitute victims of climatic variations and disasters. The World Bank says that children’s education, particularly girls, is at risk in the aftermath of the disaster. “When children are lost and found in camps, they marry them off – that is one less mouth to feed”, says Humayun, who works at Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). On top of all this, Humayun points out, “in chaotic situations, gender-based violence increases”. Last June, a report submitted at the Bonn Climate Change Conference underpinned some compelling findings vis-à-vis the magnitude of the crisis and what it entails for women around the globe. For instance, due to harsh weather events, many males are moving from rural to urban regions in several African countries in search of employment, putting women in control of the home and the land even though they may not have the...
Overcoming Afghanistan’s Isolation: Urgent Need for Shift in Taliban’s Approach For Peaceful Coexistence
The Afghan Taliban’s hardline mentality has pushed Afghanistan further into isolation from the global community. Afghanistan has to change its current trend of extreme mentality and confrontational mindset towards peaceful coexistence and partnership with the international community. It is deeply saddening that we have been killing, negating, and expelling the opponents declaring them communist terrorists, secularist fundamentalists, or agents of the enemy for the last nearly five decades. A huge scale of damage has been inflicted by such a devil perception of our social dignity and national prosperity and has severely defamed the Afghan status abroad. Not based on our imaginary approach but if we scientifically could assess how far the world has gone towards the goal of progress، conquering the universe and why have we been starving in a dry and burning desert, moving towards a dark future helplessly and hopelessly? Would it be right to justify our devastating situations by declaring ourselves as the only good Muslim on the earth while accusing other Islamic states as puppets of the west? Would our leaders be able to get a certificate of acquittal in connection to our current critical situation? Due to various reasons, including foreign invasions, civil wars, and significantly the existence of the extreme mentality in our society, we have unluckily lost the capability to adapt ourselves to the rapid development of the twenty-first century. Being part of the international community while lacking development and remaining a backward society will negate our claims for being a proud and prosperous member of the world community and having the ability to face the difficult challenges of the modern era. Contrary to the common perception, Islam within its characteristics is not opposed to modernization, scientific education, development, and the creation of a developed international society based on commonality. It additionally urges Muslims to gain access to these...
Overcoming Afghanistan’s Isolation: Urgent Need for Shift in Taliban’s Approach For Peaceful Coexistence
The Afghan Taliban’s hardline mentality has pushed Afghanistan further into isolation from the global community. Afghanistan has to change its current trend of extreme mentality and confrontational mindset towards peaceful coexistence and partnership with the international community. It is deeply saddening that we have been killing, negating, and expelling the opponents declaring them communist terrorists, secularist fundamentalists, or agents of the enemy for the last nearly five decades. A huge scale of damage has been inflicted by such a devil perception of our social dignity and national prosperity and has severely defamed the Afghan status abroad. Not based on our imaginary approach but if we scientifically could assess how far the world has gone towards the goal of progress، conquering the universe and why have we been starving in a dry and burning desert, moving towards a dark future helplessly and hopelessly? Would it be right to justify our devastating situations by declaring ourselves as the only good Muslim on the earth while accusing other Islamic states as puppets of the west? Would our leaders be able to get a certificate of acquittal in connection to our current critical situation? Due to various reasons, including foreign invasions, civil wars, and significantly the existence of the extreme mentality in our society, we have unluckily lost the capability to adapt ourselves to the rapid development of the twenty-first century. Being part of the international community while lacking development and remaining a backward society will negate our claims for being a proud and prosperous member of the world community and having the ability to face the difficult challenges of the modern era. Contrary to the common perception, Islam within its characteristics is not opposed to modernization, scientific education, development, and the creation of a developed international society based on commonality. It additionally urges Muslims to gain access to these...
Shift from the US dollar by the World’s Largest Economies
It seems to be evidently clear that with the current shift in geo-political alliances and economic slowdown, we can notice a general pattern where the major economies are starting to back out of the dollar-dominated global system and form their bloc of economic dominance. The U.S. dollar’s prominence in global affairs is influenced by economic factors and geopolitical forces, posing a danger to its dominance in the currency world. Some nations have pushed to further limit their reliance on the dollar due to U.S. sanctions imposed in reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The co-director of the Institute for the Study of Global Security claims that the United States has been “very trigger-happy” with its economic sanctions, and that central banks may seek to diversify their foreign reserve holdings rather than relying heavily on the U.S. dollar. Earlier this month (March, 2023), President Vladimir Putin stated during talks with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that Russia is ready to increase settlements in yuan in its foreign trade. “We are for the use of Chinese yuan in settlements between Russia and the countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. I am sure that these forms of settlements in yuan will be developed between Russian partners and their counterparts in third countries,” RT News quoted Putin as saying. The latest data from the Bank of Russia shows that yuan is now a major player in the Moscow’s foreign trade, with its share in the country’s import settlements jumping from 4% in January 2022 to 23% by the end of last year. According to analysts, Saudi Arabia is also actively negotiating with Beijing to price part of its oil supplies to China in Yuan. This would further weaken the US dollar’s dominance of the world petroleum market and signal another turn by the top crude exporter towards Asia. China buys more than 25% of the oil that Saudi Arabia exports. If priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency. The Saudis are...
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TESTIMONIALS
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.