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Pakistan’s Evolving Security Paradigm — II

If Narendra Modi is strident, Xi is the strongest Chinese leader in decades India detonated its nuclear device in Pokhran in 1998. Pakistan matched its response at the Chagai Hills and both states became formally nuclear armed. Under a perverse but effective logic of mutually assured destruction (MAD), Pakistan’s security was considered assured. Also, a full-scale war between the two adversaries has been successfully held at bay since 1984, the time Pakistan’s nuclear weapons’ programme was made known. The Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and Afghan resistance to foreign occupation was, fatefully, converted into global jihad as a clandestine arrangement between the US, Pakistan and meddling Middle Eastern kingdoms. Money, arms and glory seeking volunteers started to pour in. Eventually the Afghans won and the Soviets retreated. So did the US in indecent haste. Coincidently, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan occurred a few years after the dismemberment of Pakistan. The festering notion in Pakistan to fall back on Islamic precepts of active resistance against aggression found a physical form in the Afghan jihad, and its success confirmed their belief in its effectiveness. It is reasonable to assume that radicalisation and militancy in Pakistan are the cumulative results of India’s momentous invasion of Pakistan in 1971, its needlessly Pakistan-centric military and nuclear build up and the US’ exploitation of the Afghan war riding over our leadership of the time’s quest for legitimacy and quixotic ambition. To obviate a future nuclear war in South Asia, a vigorous policy of positive persuasion and constructive engagement from a position of reasonable strength is still possible. Despite the storm clouds over the horizon, one sees a window of opportunity for just such a sensible strategy. An example is that of post WW II Japan, which is relevant particularly with reference to its nuclear weapons’ policy. Notwithstanding full technological and industrial potential,...

China to Spend Billions in Pakistan to re-create Silk Road Trade Route

China plans to spend $46 billion in Pakistan on a range of projects that are shown below in different images.   Laborers load goods into a truck in Pakistan. China plans to spend $46 billion in Pakistan on an array of projects, including a 1,700-mile trade route to the Arabian Sea   Chinese engineers work on a bridge in the Karakorum mountain range in Pakistan. Some of the tunnels are inscribed with the phrase “Pak-China Friendship Tunnel.”   The Karakorum Highway, one of the world’s most dangerous thoroughfares, passes through a tunnel in the Karakorum mountain range. Chinese engineers are adding bridges, guardrails and concrete overhangs to funnel landslides and avalanches away from travel lanes.   Chinese engineers work on the Karakorum Highway near Attabad Lake. The lake was created in 2010 when a landslide damned the Hunza River, flooding the Karakorum Highway and surrounding villages.   A view of the Attabad Lake in the Karakorum mountain range. China has just built four large tunnels on the south end of the 13-mile lake to reopen the highway.   Construction work is seen in the Karakorum mountain range. Analysts say the Chinese investment represents a major opportunity to jump-start Pakistan’s economy, which is thought to be primed for growth.   Men travel on a boat with a van loaded with chickens while crossing the Attabad Lake. Pakistanis are eager to ship more medicinal herbs, textiles, gemstones and yak meat to China.   Shair Karim, 50, works in his field on the Karakorum Highway. China is promising Pakistan 18 new energy projects to mitigate the country’s pressing electricity shortage.   A herd of yak moves along the Karakorum Highway.   Shopkeeper Arman Amin, 40, works at his shop along the Karakorum Highway.   A flock of sheep moves along the Karakorum Highway.   The Chinese flag flies on the check post at the Khunjerab Pass on the border between Pakistan and China. Published on...

China Targets Financial Sector in Corruption Probe

BEIJING (APP) – China’s anti-corruption watchdog said it would expand its inspections to major financial institutions including the central bank and regulatory authorities, which are already under pressure after a spectacular stock market meltdown. After a series of probes into large state-owned enterprises — in particular oil firms — the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the Communist Party monitor, now plans to target the financial sector. The new round of inspections will cover the central People’s Bank of China, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Insurance Regulatory Commission and the watchdog China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), according to a long list posted online Friday night. China Investment Corp (CIC), the world’s largest sovereign fund, commercial banks ICBC and the Bank of China and the country’s major insurance companies will also come under scrutiny. The anti-corruption watchdog will also examine stock exchange operators in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and the parent company of major brokerage Citic Securities. After soaring 150 percent in one year, the two bourses went into a tailspin in June that extended into August, tumbling nearly 40 percent despite massive intervention by the authorities at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars. The frantic and clumsy state intervention was criticised, with a number of experts questioning the apparent contradiction with Beijing’s intention to give a greater role to the market and private sector. And the failure of government efforts to stabilise the stock markets reinforced growing doubts about the effectiveness of its economic policy while Chinese growth is experiencing a severe slowdown. The authorities also reacted to the stock market crash by launching high-profile police investigations into supposedly illegal transactions to reassure public opinion. Authorities in August detained a CSRC official and four senior executives from Citic Securities for “stock market...

Earthquake 2015- Another Wake-up Call

On October 26, 2015, Pakistan and other countries in South Asia were hit by one of the strongest recorded earthquakes. The northwestern province of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa reportedly suffered the most with over 200 deaths recorded within 48 hours of the tremors. The quake left large parts, mostly in mountainous and hilly regions, a trail of destruction of property and damages to infrastructure. This is not the first time an earthquake has affected Pakistan. In September 2013, an earthquake in the province of Balochistan resulted in 386 deaths and affected over 27,000 families. Furthermore, most Pakistanis of my generation clearly remember the tragic 2005 7.8 magnitude Kashmir earthquake, which left 75000 people dead, thousands injured and an estimated $7 billion loss to the Pakistani economy. According to United States Geological Survey (USGS), the territory of Pakistan is in a region categorized as “Indus-Tsangpo Sucture Zone[1]” – and is vulnerable to strong earthquakes due to continuous movement within thrust faults. This implies that due to the unpredictable nature of these movements, Pakistan will have to remain ready for such disasters in the future. An important question is whether the Pakistani government has learnt any lessons from past experiences (Kashmir 2005, Balcohistan 2013) to respond effectively to these emergency situations? It is important to note that natural disasters of such massive scale have long term implications for recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. Unfortunately, despite the huge loss of life and property and massive donations from the international community after the Kashmir quake, the ability of government institutions to respond still remains practically limited – and legally vague. Traveling from Islamabad to Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-governed Azad Kashmir  one can see how life in these regions have not changed much in the last ten years; the healthcare centres are without any trained health care professionals;...

Time to Move on Khan!

Can Imran Khan’s charisma survive the cacophony that has almost exclusively centered around the 2013 general election results? Or will the goodwill for his mission i.e., ensuring transparent elections, rule of law, meritocracy and good governance fade under his seemingly arrogant, self-righteous confrontationist approach? Regardless of the outcomes of the recent by-elections in Punjab, the PTI’s Pakistan-origin supporters and sympathisers abroad have begun asking the aforementioned questions. In numerous conversations in the Americas, Europe and Japan, between July and now with these Pakistanis, one could discern their frustration with Khan’s post-dharna ranting — as if they see him squandering the chance to change Pakistan. Why this visible craving for a better Pakistan? Because the societies these expatriates live in are primarily defined by the secular model of governance comprising fundamental ingredients of equal citizenry, the rule of law and merit. This governance regime, which largely treats every citizen indiscriminately — regardless of caste, creed, colour or social status — naturally evokes a strong desire of change back home. And beyond doubt, Imran Khan’s PTI has for some time served as that beacon of hope for a better Pakistan. But the fascination with Khan’s ‘revolutionary’ agenda is in many cases now giving way to a sense of despondency because of the PTI chairman’s hitherto fixation on the ‘2013 electoral fraud’. “How can a few favourable results turn the fate of Pakistan?” asked a wealthy car dealer in Tokyo. “Will Khan ever move away from his rhetoric on elections and political rivals?” asked another Pakistani settled in Geneva. Both have been quietly funding the party, probably fired by a passion to see a different Pakistan. Surprisingly, in a recent conversation in Istanbul, a few followers of Turkey’s mercurial leader Fethullah Gulen also wondered as to whether Khan has the ability to focus on real issues. Gulen, currently in self-exile in...

From the Mountains to the Sea: A Chinese Vision, a Pakistani Corridor

Tim Craig, Simon Denyer - Up here on what is often referred to as the world’s highest paved border crossing, there still are not many signs that billions of dollars in investment - and goodwill - could soon flow across these peaks in the Karakorum Mountains. At an elevation of more than 15,000 feet, yaks far outnumber cargo trucks crossing over Pakistan’s border with China. And just one border agent stands guard on the Pakistan side, when he hasn’t ducked into a steel shelter to avoid wind-whipped snow. A few miles down the mountain into Pakistan, where the air is a bit thicker and the summer sun melts the snow, Mohammad Noor fulfils a generations-old family tradition: escorting more than 1,000 goats and sheep to summer pasture. This year, however, he keeps his footing by walking on a new section of Karakorum Highway, recently built by China. And with each step, Noor says, he feels as though he’s heading into the future. “The young people now are more educated and don’t want to look after sheep and goats,” said Noor, 44. “The future is Pakistan and China.” Noor was standing on China’s new gateway to the far-distant Arabian Sea, the spine of an ambitious project by Beijing in a country that has a history of frustrating the well-intentioned plans of others. Americans, disillusioned by decades of unfruitful involvement in Pakistan, are sceptical that China will have any more success here. But Chinese President Xi Jinping is intent on extending China’s influence in Asia, confident that his country can avoid the old pitfalls and achieve a new economic and political predominance in the region. Here, trucks carrying Chinese goods could soon begin a 1,700-mile descent through Pakistan, to a saltwater port where the freight will be put on ships bound for markets in Africa, the Middle East and Europe. The journey will embody China’s efforts to re-create the old Silk Route that for centuries linked Asia to the Middle East, and brought wealth to both. And along the way, China...

‘The Pakistanization of Turkey’

On November 1, millions of Turk voters will take part in a snap election to decide who will govern them, after the general polls on June 7 failed to produce a government. The election is taking place in a politically challenging environment, with most opposition parties gunning for what they call the fascist Justice Party while President Erdogan and prime minister Ahmet Davuto?lu struggle to cope with over two million refugees pushed into Turkey by the Syrian civil war. Having propelled Turkey into a decade of development and international importance, the ruling party now finds itself surrounded by a complex politically fragile and economically troubled neighborhood – the Euro-zone currency crisis, a debt-ridden Greece, the Syrian civil war spurred by ISIS and the anti-Asad rebels , the influx of Syrian refugees, and politically shaky Ukraine, Armenia and Georgia. Recep Tayyip Erdo?an, the President of Turkey, wants to be Bashkan – a Turkish synonym for a head of state with absolute power. He is pushing for a presidential system, probably inspired by the Russian President Vladimir Putin, who too manipulated his way from two prime ministerial stints into the all-powerful presidency. This craving for power aimed at subordinating  the executive, judiciary and the military not only brackets him with the likes of Putin, but also with Pakistani leaders like the Sharif brothers, who too believe that only absolute power can help them implement their economic vision. The AKP offers a strong argument in support of their case for a presidential system, especially if viewed against the country’s chequered history until the AKP came into power in 2002. This argument recently resonated at a dinner meeting organized for Turkish and foreign intellectuals and policy analysts in Istanbul. The chief guest, Ali Babacan, a young dynamic AKP member who has been a strong member of the cabinet until recently as a minister for economic and finance affairs, spelled out this vision. “The...

Karachi Violence at Record Low

An analysis of the recent security situation in the country Data from the third quarter of 2015, compiled by a private think tank in Islamabad, suggests that while the number of casualties from violence has not seen a sharp decline, the focus of violence-related fatalities has shifted from civilians to militants. Military personnel and other law enforcement agency (LEA) members also make up for a large percentage of the casualties in the third quarter. The month of July saw a brief lull, with 265 lives lost to violence, but was immediately followed by August, the second bloodiest month in 2015 with 535 deaths, including Colonel (r) Shuja Khanzada, Punjab’s home minister. The biggest indicators of change lie in Sindh. Karachi, the largest city and largest district in Pakistan, consistently took the top spot in terms of violence and fatalities. Target killings, robberies and muggings, and sectarian violence were the top contributors to violence in the city with a projected population of 24 million. Even at the height of Operation Zarb-e-Azb which targeted and eliminated hundreds of militants in the tribal region, Karachi district managed to top North Waziristan in terms of casualties. Karachi saw more casualties than North Waziristan However, 2015 has seen a steady decline in both the volume and severity of the violence that had besieged Karachi. For example, Karachi lost 2,029 lives to violence in 2014. In 2015’s first three quarters, Karachi has seen 358, 332 and 248 fatalities respectively. If the trend continues, by the end of 2015, Karachi would have reduced violence-related fatalities by nearly half, when compared to 2014. The sheer size of Karachi also has an incontrovertible impact on national statistics, depicting a receding trend of violence overall. This is despite some regions showing increased fatalities from violence – but their overall impact is minimal when juxtaposed against Karachi. The other region that showed a decline in violence normally ranks...

Hike In Global IS Attacks In Past 3 Months: Analysts

LONDON: A major increase in violence by the self-styled Islamic State (IS) group saw over 1,000 attacks and nearly 3,000 deaths worldwide in the past three months, analysis firm IHS Jane's said Thursday. The figures show a 42 per cent jump in daily attacks by the militant group, averaging 11.8 per day from July to September, up from 8.3 per day between April and June. The figures suggest that air strikes by the United States-led coalition have had only a limited impact on the group. The London-based analysis firm recorded 1,086 IS attacks, causing a total of 2,978 civilian and government fatalities ─ a huge 65.3pc increase in the average daily killings by the group compared to the previous three months, and an 81pc jump on one year earlier. IHS Jane's Terrorism and Insurgency Centre uses open sources to compile their database, and said IS likely carried out far more attacks that could not be verified. "While the air strikes and wider coalition efforts have put the group under significant pressure, it is seemingly still some way from being sufficiently weakened to allow the recapture of territory, let alone be defeated," Matthew Henman, head of the Terrorism and Insurgency Centre, told AFP. Boko Haram's contribution The figures reflect the inclusion of Nigeria's brutal Boko Haram militant group, which declared allegiance to IS in March. Renamed Wilayat Gharb Afriqiyah, the group's attacks were the deadliest of any IS affiliate. "This underlines the nature of the group's insurgency in Nigeria and several bordering countries, with its operations characterised by mass-casualty operations targeting the civilian population in the group's northeast operational heartland," Henman said. The new figures also reflect changes in the type of combat over the summer in Iraq and Syria, which still account for the vast majority of IS activity. After capturing some key areas ─ including the Iraqi city of Ramadi and Syria's Palmyra earlier this year ─ the group focused on defending...

China to Increase Investment in Thar Coal Project

ISLAMABAD (Web Desk) – China has agreed to increase financing in Thar Coal project to raise the generation capacity from 660 megawatt to 1320 megawatt, reported Radio Pakistan. This decision was taken at a meeting held on video Conference between Secretary Ministry of Water and Power Mohammad Younus Dagha and Vice Administrator National Energy Administration China Zhang Yuqing. The meeting also took similar decision for a Coal fired Power Plant at Hub in Balochistan. Both sides also recognized the importance of a heavy transmission line from Matiari to Lahore. Published October 20, 2015 on http://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/

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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.

Soniya Shams

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, Peshawar