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100-year-old Kissinger’s Visit to China: More than Just a Diplomatic Gesture
The former secretary of state’s private visit to China serves as more than a diplomatic gesture: it is a strategic effort to understand the Chinese leadership's perspective amidst an impending financial crisis while hinting at potential conflict, the need for peaceful negotiation, and averting grave damages as much as possible. In an unexpected twist of international diplomacy, 100-year-old Henry Kissinger recently embarked on a “private trip” to China, amidst escalating tensions between the two superpowers. The centenarian's journey sparked intense debate and speculation. Kissinger, once a bridge between the two nations during the Cold War, now carried a weighty mission under the aura of his legacy. But the intent of this visit was not to defuse the ticking time bomb of the US's $31.4 trillion debt or to discuss the heated trade war. Nor did it pertain to Taiwan, another critical contention point. Instead, Kissinger sought to gain a deeper understanding of the Chinese leadership's perspective, to serve later as a private conduit of information to the US government. Unlike recent ones by US officials, this visit included a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Diaoyutai State guest house in Beijing, underscoring the level of esteem and respect that Kissinger commands in the political echelons of both nations. The groundwork for this rendezvous was laid two months ago, with the intent to facilitate more candid discussions between the Centenarian and Chinese leaders. However, to comprehend the full import of Kissinger's trip, we must understand the context of the impending financial crisis. The US's soaring debt threatens to destabilize global economies, wiping out millions of jobs and trillions of dollars in pensions. Rather than addressing this elephant in the room, Kissinger might have aimed to discuss a grimmer potential fallout: war. When Xi Jinping initiated his first term, he received counsel that China's economy would not survive a US bonds crash....
BEYOND BOUNDARIES V
ENGAGING RELIGIOUS AND TRIBAL LEADERS ON REGIONAL STABILITY AND BILATERAL COOPERATION (May 2022 - March 2023) Preface Since its inception in 2015, Beyond Boundaries has played a pivotal role in fostering goodwill and cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This pioneering diplomacy initiative brought together an array of key actors, including civil society representatives, political leaders, community figures, government officials, artists, and media personnel from both countries. By facilitating dynamic discourse and policy-making, Beyond Boundaries sought to address crucial regional issues such as peace and stability, cultural exchange, trade, and economic connectivity, youth capacity building, political participation, and women's empowerment.
Climate-Induced Security Threats to Pakistan
The Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) extends its sincere gratitude to the core research team members whose dedication and expertise were instrumental in this research report. We are grateful to Elsa Imdad for exhibiting exceptional leadership and a knack for innovation as the research lead; Zehra Zaidi for conducting the literature review and desk research with meticulous attention to detail and updated knowledge; Mustafa Malik for the skillfully crafted research questions, finalizing the study design, and creating informative infographics; Junaid Khan for providing invaluable peer review and critical feedback throughout the research; Ramsha Saghir for carrying out the key informant interviews with exceptional skill and insight; and Abbas Raza for doing thorough desk research that greatly enriched the findings. The Center is also grateful to the subject matter experts whose contributions greatly enhanced the quality and credibility of this report. We are deeply grateful to Dr. Salma Malik, Dr. Uzair Hashmi, Dr. Najam Khurshid, and Zahra Khan Durrani, whose participation in the key informant interviews provided insightful analysis and invaluable guidance throughout the research process. Finally, we extend our gratitude to Mr. Ali Tauqeer and Mr. Syed Amanullah Hussaini for their critical input and final review of the report.
Sino-US ties at a new ‘crossroads’
Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, capital of China, July 20, 2023. [Photo by Feng Yongbin / China Daily] President Xi Jinping has reiterated the need to follow the principles of "mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation" in dealing with relations between China and the United States, saying that Beijing is willing to work with Washington to explore the right way for both countries to coexist based on such principles. Xi made the remarks in a meeting with former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger in Beijing on Thursday. Kissinger, who celebrated his 100th birthday in May, has visited China more than 100 times since his first, secret trip to the country in 1971, which began the normalization of China-US relations. His visit came with expectations of a potential shift in the strained China-US relationship amid a series of high-level official engagements between the two countries. US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry concluded his visit to China on Wednesday. In recent weeks, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made his first trip to China in his current capacity, followed by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. During the meeting, Xi said that 52 years ago, China and the US were at a crucial juncture. At that time, Chairman Mao Zedong and Premier Zhou Enlai, as well as then US president Richard Nixon and Kissinger himself, with their extraordinary strategic vision, made the right decision for China-US cooperation, he said. "It was also in July in the same place — Villa No 5 of Diaoyutai State Guesthouse — that you and Premier Zhou Enlai had a meeting, starting the normalization process of the two countries' relations," Xi said, adding that the 1971 meeting was of far-reaching historic significance. "The Chinese people value friendship, and they never forget their old friend, nor your historic contributions to promoting the growth of...
Security Challenges Continue To Mount In 2023
A 21% reduction in overall violence recorded during the second quarter (2Q) of 2023 in the country appears to be a positive trend in the nation’s security situation, though security challenges continue to grow in complexity and scope, triggering one crisis after another. A recent report issued by the Center for Research and Security Studies highlights the complexity of these challenges, particularly as religious militants draw separatist groups into their fold and even a leading political party is reported to have support from militant groups. The growing trend of militancy in the country is encouraging orthodox religious parties and clergymen to challenge the state’s authority through resorting to violence. These trends keep incentivizing outlaws to exploit opportunities to expand their influence by far and wide. The dynamics of the War on Terror, previously disowned and disavowed as a policy that was enforced by external forces, are now being embraced and fought by Pakistan itself. The same militants who were once considered fighters against foreign invaders have now directed their guns toward achieving their objectives within Pakistan’s borders. Having fulfilled their agenda in Afghanistan, they feel confident in expanding the ambit of their activities within Pakistan. During Q2 of 2023, a total of 176 incidents of violence and counter-violence were recorded in the country, resulting in 284 fatalities and 291 injuries. The provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan have emerged as the epicenters of terrorism within Pakistan since Afghanistan, bordering these two provinces, fell to Taliban control. While KP witnessed a 20% decline in violence during Q2, the significant rise of militancy in Balochistan, accounting for a 14% increase, offset the progress made in KP. On the other hand, all other provinces experienced a sharp decline in violence during Q2. During Q2 of 2023, a total of 176 incidents of violence and counter-violence were recorded in the...
Education, Human Rights Imperative for Socio-Economic Progress of Afghanistan
Pakistan and Afghanistan should synergetically pursue the shared socio-economic and political development goals and create stakes for standing by each other through thick and thin. Trade and economic connectivity are our priorities, and collaboration in these mutually beneficial areas of relationship can incentivize both nations tremendously and help them attain prosperity, and stability as well as strengthen regional connectivity. People-to-people ties determine all other areas of the bilateral relationship. Therefore, we must strive to bring both peoples closer; building on the commonalities like culture, religion, etc. The potential of the formal and informal diplomacy channels must be harnessed to address common misperceptions, differences, and challenges. These remarks were made by Pakistan’s Federal Minister for Religious Affairs and Interfaith Harmony Senator Muhammad Talha Mahmood, in his keynote address during the Pak-Afghan Dialogue on Regional Stability and Geoeconomic Dynamics, while highlighting the importance of bilateral cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan, particularly in trade and economic connectivity. The two-day dialogue was organized by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), in collaboration with its Afghan partner Organization for Economic Studies and Peace (OESP), where participating religious scholars, tribal representatives, and commerce experts from both countries discussed and proposed pragmatic solutions for addressing bilateral issues concerning economic development, peace, and security, as well as the humanitarian and human rights situation in Afghanistan. Moderating the discussions, the Executive Director of OESP, Mozammil Shinwari, highlighted Afghanistan’s significant strides towards peace, transparency, self-sustainability, improved trade relations, and collaboration with regional partners despite international sanctions. “These positive developments pave the way for the region's prosperity, stability, and...
Critical Shortcomings Exposed in State Department Report on Chaotic Afghanistan Withdrawal
“The decisions of both President (Donald) Trump and President (Joe) Biden to end the U.S. military mission in Afghanistan had serious consequences for the viability of the Afghan government and its security.” The recently released after-action report by the Biden administration sheds light on the military withdrawal from Afghanistan. The report, which was largely redacted, highlights several key issues regarding the planning and execution of the withdrawal that contributed to the chaotic aftermath. It reveals that there was insufficient consideration of worst-case scenarios and a lack of anticipation for how quickly the situation could deteriorate. Surprisingly, most estimates up until the fall of Kabul suggested that the Afghan government and its forces could hold the city for weeks or even months. One of the major shortcomings outlined in the report was the lack of clarity regarding leadership for the noncombatant evacuation operation (NEO). It states that it was unclear who in the Department had the lead on this critical operation, suggesting a lack of coordination across different lines of effort. The report suggests that designating a senior official on the 7th floor to oversee all elements of the crisis response could have improved coordination. The report also highlights the challenges posed by constantly changing policy guidance and public messaging from Washington. This caused confusion on the ground and failed to align with the realities of the situation. Additionally, the review discusses external factors that impacted the State Department's response, including the deal struck by former President Donald Trump with the Taliban, which sidelined the Afghan government. The report also mentions the dearth of relevant Senate-confirmed officials at the State Department and the compromised adjudication process for special immigrant visa applicants, which further complicated the response effort. While the report acknowledges the adversity faced by diplomats and...
Euro Parliament Calls on India to Stop Rights’ Violations
The European Parliament on July 13 came out strongly with three resolutions on the human rights situation in Venezuela, Kyrgyzstan and India, all adopted with a heavy majority. The resolution on India focused on the situation in Manipur and called on the government to immediately put an end to the rights’ abuses. The resolution read as follows: “””Following recent violent clashes in the state of Manipur, India, which since May 2023 have left at least 120 people dead, 50 000 displaced and over 1 700 houses and 250 churches destroyed, Parliament strongly urges the Indian authorities to put in place all necessary measures to promptly halt the ethnic and religious violence and to protect all religious minorities. The resolution notes that intolerance towards minority communities has contributed to the current violence and that there have been concerns about politically motivated, divisive policies that promote Hindu majoritarianism in the area. The Manipur state government has also shut down internet connections and severely hindered reporting by the media, while security forces have been implicated in the recent killings, something that has further increased distrust in the authorities. MEPs call on the Indian authorities to allow independent investigations to look into the violence, to tackle impunity and to lift the internet ban. They also urge all conflicting sides to cease making inflammatory statements, re-establish trust and play an impartial role to mediate the tensions. Parliament reiterates its call for human rights to be integrated into all areas of the EU-India partnership, including in trade. MEPs also advocate for the EU-India Human Rights Dialogue to be reinforced and encourage the EU and its member states to systematically and publicly raise human rights concerns, notably on freedom of expression, religion and the shrinking space for civil society, with the Indian side at the highest level.” The European Parliament resolution on India is thus far the...
China or the US: Pakistan’s Choice
If Turkey couldn't hold on to neutrality b/w US & Russia, time is close enough for us too to be asked directly- either you are with us or with China! Pakistan is among the frontline states in the China-U.S. contest for influence in Asia. As Washington cements its strategic partnership with New Delhi, Islamabad’s growing tilt toward Beijing is raising concerns in Western capitals. Last month, the United States joined India in calling out Pakistan for terrorism, indicating a clear shift in Washington’s South Asia policy toward deprioritizing Pakistan. With India-U.S. relations entering a “transformational moment,” Pakistan’s response to the great power rivalry is becoming clearer. Despite denouncing repeatedly, the idea of joining “bloc politics,” Islamabad appears to be pivoting toward Beijing. The Discord Leaks: Pakistan Tilts to China In April, leaked U.S. documents revealed that Pakistan’s state minister for foreign affairs, Hina Rabbani Khar, had advised Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to avoid “appeasing the West” at the expense of a “real strategic partnership” with China. The memo, titled “Pakistan’s Difficult Choices,” argued that Pakistan can no longer try to maintain a “middle ground” between China and the United States. Notably, Pakistan declined two consecutive invitations to attend the United States’ Summit for Democracy – ostensibly because the events included Taiwan and excluded China – while attending similar events on “Democracy” and “Shared Human Values” in Beijing. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir has visited China, while a visit to the United States is not even under discussion. Wearied by Washington’s costly security-centric approach, Islamabad’s turn toward China’s economics-driven diplomacy offers greater hope for Pakistan. Making a Choice? Despite that, there is a hesitancy to completely abandon Pakistan’s relationship with the United States. In a recent interview, Khar expressed Pakistan’s concerns about the possibility of a...
Quarterly Security Report- Q2-2023
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.