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China-Afghanistan Relations: Opportunities and Challenges
In 2020, China became the second-largest export destination for Afghan goods after Pakistan. For China, Afghanistan enjoys a strategic geographic position, offering a potential shortcut for imports of oil and gas from the Middle East, along with neighboring Pakistan. Hence, a stable Afghanistan can lead to; increased trade, connectivity, and investment opportunities, aligning with China’s broader regional and global aspirations. China has maintained diplomatic relations with Afghanistan, having recognized the Afghan government at various points in its recent history. China also played a role in facilitating talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban, and was one of the first foreign countries to pledge emergency and humanitarian aid (worth 200 million yuan) to Afghanistan. China has also maintained direct communication with the Taliban administration, and both sides have met on several occasions, bilaterally and internationally, to discuss plans for Afghanistan reconstruction. Beijing has also been active in various; international, multilateral talks on Afghan issues with regional and international actors. To give an overview of how China-Afghanistan’s bilateral relationship strengthened over the years, following are the key points: Trade flow between China and Afghanistan: Afghanistan’s main trading partners are its neighbors, and China is one of its largest trading partners. In 2020, China became the second-largest export destination for Afghan goods after Pakistan. It was also the top source of imported goods for Afghan markets, following the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Pakistan, and India. (Central Bureau of Statistics of Afghanistan}. According to the International Trade Centre (ICT), Afghanistan’s exports to China have grown over the last 25 years at a yearly rate of 4.84 percent, from US$16.6 million in 1995 to US$49.53 million in 2021. Multilateral engagement efforts: The two sides have established the China-Afghan Joint Committee on Economics and...
U.S. – Taliban Meetings Center on Human Rights, Economic Stabilization, and Counternarcotics
On July 30 and 31, Special Representative for Afghanistan Thomas West, alongside Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls, and Human Rights Rina Amiri, and Chief of the U.S. Mission to Afghanistan based in Doha Karen Decker, led a U.S. delegation to continue discussions regarding critical interests with senior Taliban representatives and technocratic professionals in Doha, Qatar. U.S. officials identified areas for confidence building in support of the Afghan people. The American delegation also expressed deep concern regarding the humanitarian crisis and the need to continue to support aid organizations and UN bodies delivering assistance consistent with humanitarian principles. U.S. officials urged the Taliban to reverse policies responsible for the deteriorating human rights situation in Afghanistan, particularly for women, girls, and vulnerable communities. U.S. officials expressed grave concern regarding detentions, media crackdowns, and limits on religious practice. The United States expressed support for the Afghan people’s demands for their rights to be respected and for their voices to shape the future of the country. The American delegation met with representatives of the Afghan Central Bank and Afghan Ministry of Finance to discuss the state of the Afghan economy and the challenges that the banking sector faces. U.S. officials took note of recent data indicating declining inflation, growth of merchandise exports and imports in Afghanistan in 2023, and voiced openness to a technical dialogue regarding economic stabilization issues soon. U.S. officials took note of the Taliban’s continuing commitment to not allow the territory of Afghanistan to be used by anyone to threaten the United States and its allies, and the two sides discussed Taliban efforts to fulfill security commitments. The American delegation acknowledged that there has been a decrease in large-scale terrorist attacks against Afghan civilians. U.S. officials pressed for the immediate and...
Review of CPEC and BRI: Targets, Achievements, Shortcomings, and Future Perspectives
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) stands as a symbol of the deep-rooted and unwavering friendship between Pakistan and China. Initiated as a flagship project under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, CPEC was envisioned to revolutionize Pakistan's infrastructure, energy sector, and economy. Over the years, it has achieved significant milestones, however, like any ambitious endeavor, CPEC has faced challenges that demand thoughtful planning and collaboration for its second phase. This article reviews the targets and achievements of CPEC, identifies its shortcomings, delves into the vision for CPEC Phase-II, including the establishment of new joint working groups, discusses planning, the future, and the way forward for this transformative initiative, and concludes with the immense potential it holds for both nations and the broader region. The Targets of CPEC under BRI Infrastructure Development: CPEC aimed to transform Pakistan's infrastructure by constructing modern transportation networks, including highways, railways, ports, and airports. The goal was to enhance regional connectivity and facilitate trade and economic growth. Energy Security: Addressing Pakistan's energy crisis was a core objective of CPEC. The corridor aimed to develop various energy projects, including coal, hydro, solar, and wind power plants, to boost the country's energy capacity and reduce its dependence on costly energy imports. Economic Growth and Industrialization: CPEC aimed to stimulate Pakistan's economic growth by attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) from China. This investment was expected to create job opportunities, spur industrialization, and improve living standards for the Pakistani people. Regional Connectivity: As part of the Belt and Road Initiative, CPEC envisioned fostering regional connectivity by creating a network of roads, railways, and pipelines linking China to the Arabian Sea through Gwadar Port. This connectivity aimed to benefit China,...
100-year-old Kissinger’s Visit to China: More than Just a Diplomatic Gesture
The former secretary of state’s private visit to China serves as more than a diplomatic gesture: it is a strategic effort to understand the Chinese leadership's perspective amidst an impending financial crisis while hinting at potential conflict, the need for peaceful negotiation, and averting grave damages as much as possible. In an unexpected twist of international diplomacy, 100-year-old Henry Kissinger recently embarked on a “private trip” to China, amidst escalating tensions between the two superpowers. The centenarian's journey sparked intense debate and speculation. Kissinger, once a bridge between the two nations during the Cold War, now carried a weighty mission under the aura of his legacy. But the intent of this visit was not to defuse the ticking time bomb of the US's $31.4 trillion debt or to discuss the heated trade war. Nor did it pertain to Taiwan, another critical contention point. Instead, Kissinger sought to gain a deeper understanding of the Chinese leadership's perspective, to serve later as a private conduit of information to the US government. Unlike recent ones by US officials, this visit included a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Diaoyutai State guest house in Beijing, underscoring the level of esteem and respect that Kissinger commands in the political echelons of both nations. The groundwork for this rendezvous was laid two months ago, with the intent to facilitate more candid discussions between the Centenarian and Chinese leaders. However, to comprehend the full import of Kissinger's trip, we must understand the context of the impending financial crisis. The US's soaring debt threatens to destabilize global economies, wiping out millions of jobs and trillions of dollars in pensions. Rather than addressing this elephant in the room, Kissinger might have aimed to discuss a grimmer potential fallout: war. When Xi Jinping initiated his first term, he received counsel that China's economy would not survive a US bonds crash....
BEYOND BOUNDARIES V
ENGAGING RELIGIOUS AND TRIBAL LEADERS ON REGIONAL STABILITY AND BILATERAL COOPERATION (May 2022 - March 2023) Preface Since its inception in 2015, Beyond Boundaries has played a pivotal role in fostering goodwill and cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This pioneering diplomacy initiative brought together an array of key actors, including civil society representatives, political leaders, community figures, government officials, artists, and media personnel from both countries. By facilitating dynamic discourse and policy-making, Beyond Boundaries sought to address crucial regional issues such as peace and stability, cultural exchange, trade, and economic connectivity, youth capacity building, political participation, and women's empowerment.
Climate-Induced Security Threats to Pakistan
The Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) extends its sincere gratitude to the core research team members whose dedication and expertise were instrumental in this research report. We are grateful to Elsa Imdad for exhibiting exceptional leadership and a knack for innovation as the research lead; Zehra Zaidi for conducting the literature review and desk research with meticulous attention to detail and updated knowledge; Mustafa Malik for the skillfully crafted research questions, finalizing the study design, and creating informative infographics; Junaid Khan for providing invaluable peer review and critical feedback throughout the research; Ramsha Saghir for carrying out the key informant interviews with exceptional skill and insight; and Abbas Raza for doing thorough desk research that greatly enriched the findings. The Center is also grateful to the subject matter experts whose contributions greatly enhanced the quality and credibility of this report. We are deeply grateful to Dr. Salma Malik, Dr. Uzair Hashmi, Dr. Najam Khurshid, and Zahra Khan Durrani, whose participation in the key informant interviews provided insightful analysis and invaluable guidance throughout the research process. Finally, we extend our gratitude to Mr. Ali Tauqeer and Mr. Syed Amanullah Hussaini for their critical input and final review of the report.
Sino-US ties at a new ‘crossroads’
Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, capital of China, July 20, 2023. [Photo by Feng Yongbin / China Daily] President Xi Jinping has reiterated the need to follow the principles of "mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation" in dealing with relations between China and the United States, saying that Beijing is willing to work with Washington to explore the right way for both countries to coexist based on such principles. Xi made the remarks in a meeting with former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger in Beijing on Thursday. Kissinger, who celebrated his 100th birthday in May, has visited China more than 100 times since his first, secret trip to the country in 1971, which began the normalization of China-US relations. His visit came with expectations of a potential shift in the strained China-US relationship amid a series of high-level official engagements between the two countries. US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry concluded his visit to China on Wednesday. In recent weeks, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made his first trip to China in his current capacity, followed by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. During the meeting, Xi said that 52 years ago, China and the US were at a crucial juncture. At that time, Chairman Mao Zedong and Premier Zhou Enlai, as well as then US president Richard Nixon and Kissinger himself, with their extraordinary strategic vision, made the right decision for China-US cooperation, he said. "It was also in July in the same place — Villa No 5 of Diaoyutai State Guesthouse — that you and Premier Zhou Enlai had a meeting, starting the normalization process of the two countries' relations," Xi said, adding that the 1971 meeting was of far-reaching historic significance. "The Chinese people value friendship, and they never forget their old friend, nor your historic contributions to promoting the growth of...
Security Challenges Continue To Mount In 2023
A 21% reduction in overall violence recorded during the second quarter (2Q) of 2023 in the country appears to be a positive trend in the nation’s security situation, though security challenges continue to grow in complexity and scope, triggering one crisis after another. A recent report issued by the Center for Research and Security Studies highlights the complexity of these challenges, particularly as religious militants draw separatist groups into their fold and even a leading political party is reported to have support from militant groups. The growing trend of militancy in the country is encouraging orthodox religious parties and clergymen to challenge the state’s authority through resorting to violence. These trends keep incentivizing outlaws to exploit opportunities to expand their influence by far and wide. The dynamics of the War on Terror, previously disowned and disavowed as a policy that was enforced by external forces, are now being embraced and fought by Pakistan itself. The same militants who were once considered fighters against foreign invaders have now directed their guns toward achieving their objectives within Pakistan’s borders. Having fulfilled their agenda in Afghanistan, they feel confident in expanding the ambit of their activities within Pakistan. During Q2 of 2023, a total of 176 incidents of violence and counter-violence were recorded in the country, resulting in 284 fatalities and 291 injuries. The provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan have emerged as the epicenters of terrorism within Pakistan since Afghanistan, bordering these two provinces, fell to Taliban control. While KP witnessed a 20% decline in violence during Q2, the significant rise of militancy in Balochistan, accounting for a 14% increase, offset the progress made in KP. On the other hand, all other provinces experienced a sharp decline in violence during Q2. During Q2 of 2023, a total of 176 incidents of violence and counter-violence were recorded in the...
Education, Human Rights Imperative for Socio-Economic Progress of Afghanistan
Pakistan and Afghanistan should synergetically pursue the shared socio-economic and political development goals and create stakes for standing by each other through thick and thin. Trade and economic connectivity are our priorities, and collaboration in these mutually beneficial areas of relationship can incentivize both nations tremendously and help them attain prosperity, and stability as well as strengthen regional connectivity. People-to-people ties determine all other areas of the bilateral relationship. Therefore, we must strive to bring both peoples closer; building on the commonalities like culture, religion, etc. The potential of the formal and informal diplomacy channels must be harnessed to address common misperceptions, differences, and challenges. These remarks were made by Pakistan’s Federal Minister for Religious Affairs and Interfaith Harmony Senator Muhammad Talha Mahmood, in his keynote address during the Pak-Afghan Dialogue on Regional Stability and Geoeconomic Dynamics, while highlighting the importance of bilateral cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan, particularly in trade and economic connectivity. The two-day dialogue was organized by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), in collaboration with its Afghan partner Organization for Economic Studies and Peace (OESP), where participating religious scholars, tribal representatives, and commerce experts from both countries discussed and proposed pragmatic solutions for addressing bilateral issues concerning economic development, peace, and security, as well as the humanitarian and human rights situation in Afghanistan. Moderating the discussions, the Executive Director of OESP, Mozammil Shinwari, highlighted Afghanistan’s significant strides towards peace, transparency, self-sustainability, improved trade relations, and collaboration with regional partners despite international sanctions. “These positive developments pave the way for the region's prosperity, stability, and...
Critical Shortcomings Exposed in State Department Report on Chaotic Afghanistan Withdrawal
“The decisions of both President (Donald) Trump and President (Joe) Biden to end the U.S. military mission in Afghanistan had serious consequences for the viability of the Afghan government and its security.” The recently released after-action report by the Biden administration sheds light on the military withdrawal from Afghanistan. The report, which was largely redacted, highlights several key issues regarding the planning and execution of the withdrawal that contributed to the chaotic aftermath. It reveals that there was insufficient consideration of worst-case scenarios and a lack of anticipation for how quickly the situation could deteriorate. Surprisingly, most estimates up until the fall of Kabul suggested that the Afghan government and its forces could hold the city for weeks or even months. One of the major shortcomings outlined in the report was the lack of clarity regarding leadership for the noncombatant evacuation operation (NEO). It states that it was unclear who in the Department had the lead on this critical operation, suggesting a lack of coordination across different lines of effort. The report suggests that designating a senior official on the 7th floor to oversee all elements of the crisis response could have improved coordination. The report also highlights the challenges posed by constantly changing policy guidance and public messaging from Washington. This caused confusion on the ground and failed to align with the realities of the situation. Additionally, the review discusses external factors that impacted the State Department's response, including the deal struck by former President Donald Trump with the Taliban, which sidelined the Afghan government. The report also mentions the dearth of relevant Senate-confirmed officials at the State Department and the compromised adjudication process for special immigrant visa applicants, which further complicated the response effort. While the report acknowledges the adversity faced by diplomats and...
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TESTIMONIALS
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.