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Surgical Strikes and The Doval Doctrine
Internally, the Indian security forces seem to be set on a kill-maim-blind-disable campaign in Kashmir. Externally, New Delhi has embarked on a smear-isolate-discredit-Pakistan mission—very much in synch with the Ajit Doval doctrine—accompanied by an offensive anchored in politico-diplomatic isolation of the country. The barbs that diplomats and leaders of both countries exchange, particularly the Indian Home Minister Rajnath Singh’s characterization of Pakistan as a “terrorist country” represent the other plank of the campaign to bracket Pakistan with all sorts of negatives, including, of course, terrorism. And incidents such as Pathankot or Uri perfectly fit into this gameplan. Public calls for reprisal in the shape of surgical strikes are then the natural reaction to such deadly incidents. Uri revived emories of Mumbai and the public outrage that it triggered. But the idea of surgical strikes dates to the post-Mumbai scenario, when India’s top military, political and intelligence leadership had in a secret meeting on December 2, 2008, mulled over this option. This meeting had apparently taken place shortly before a delegation of US senators led by John McCain and Lindsey Graham visited New Delhi to sniff out the mood. From there they travelled to Lahore, where they discussed the surgical strike option. “Senator McCain wanted to know from me… what the reaction of the Pakistan army and the public at large would be if there was a limited air-raid on Muridke,” writes Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri in his book Neither a Hawk nor a Dove. I was “horrified at the mere suggestion.” There have been moderate voices too, such as that of Manoj Kumar Joshi, who have been far more restrained and calculated in their condemnation of Pakistan than the majority. We need to manage our relations, rather than push for “crushing Pakistan, cutting Pakistan to size,” Joshi said in a Rajiya Sabha TV debate The senators, also accompanied by Richard Holbrooke, the then special Pak-Afghan...
Afghanistan Signs Draft Peace Deal With Prominent Warlord
Afghanistan's government signed a draft peace deal on Thursday with a designated "global terrorist" after lengthy negotiations that could pave the way for a similar accord with the Taliban, who have been waging war on Kabul for 15 years. The deal with warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar is the country's first peace agreement since the Taliban launched their insurgency in 2001, after being driven from power in the wake of the 9/11 attacks on the United States. It grants full political rights to his Hezb-i-Islami Gulbuddin party and obliges the Afghan authorities to work to have it removed from the United Nations' list of foreign terrorist organizations. Hekmatyar himself was designated by the U.S. as a "global terrorist" in 2003. He was blacklisted at Washington's request by the U.N. the same year, and has similar status with the British government. The agreement ends years of talks between Kabul and Hekmatyar, who is in his late 60s. It should enable him to return to Afghanistan after 20 years in exile — he is believed to live in Pakistan — as it includes provisions for his security at government expense. The signing ceremony was broadcast live on television. The agreement was signed by the head of Kabul's High Peace Council, Ahmad Gilani, national security adviser Mohammad Hanif Atmar, and Hekmatyar's representative Amin Karim. Hekmatyar's son Habiburahman sat with an audience of officials. To be formalized, the agreement must be signed by President Ashraf Ghani and Hekamtyar; Atmar said it would happen "as soon as possible." The deal marks a victory of sorts for Ghani, who has been unable to bring peace to Afghanistan despite election promises and early efforts to forge a close diplomatic relationship with neighboring Pakistan. The failure of those efforts has seen Ghani reverse course in recent months — he now openly accuses Pakistan of supporting the Taliban. Pakistan denies the accusations, though the Taliban's leadership councils are based in Quetta and other...
Officials Speak of Daesh Presence in Zabul, Nangarhar
Officials in Zabul and Nangarhar said on Wednesday that Daesh insurgents are still active in parts of the two provinces and that the insurgent group is trying to extend its presence to other areas but has so far failed. Khak Afghan district in Zabul was reportedly Daesh's first base in the province but local officials said the group has extended its territory to other parts of the province. "Arghandab, Daichopan, Mizan and Nawbahar districts are witnessing a huge presence of foreign Taliban. Two years ago they raised the Daesh flag but have now pledged their allegiance to al-Qaeda, but they are the same people," said Attaullah Haq Bayan, head of Zabul provincial council. Meanwhile, officials from Nangarhar said that Daesh safe havens have been hit by air strikes and that soon ground operations will be launched to eliminate their hideouts. "Daesh will be suppressed in areas where they are active. They cannot move forward. Our air strikes are ongoing to hit their hideouts," said Nangarhar governor Attaullah Khogtani. The Ministry of Defense meanwhile said they believe that Daesh is no longer a serious threat to Afghanistan's security. "Daesh is now active in Achin and Kot districts, but their presence is not at the level that was expected," said Habiburrahman Afzal, deputy spokesman for the defense ministry. This article originally appeared on www.tolonews.com, September 21, 2016. Original link. Disclaimer: Views expressed in the article are not necessarily supported by CRSS.
Afghanistan in Talks With UAE Companies For $6b Infrastructure Projects
Negotiations are underway between the Afghan government and some companies in United Arab Emirates to attract an investment of $6 billion in infrastructure projects, it has been reported. The officials in the Ministry of Energy and Water of Afghanistan have said Afghanistan requires a total of $9 billion investment in the energy sector. Water and Energy Minister Ali Ahmad Osmani told reporters in UAE that the donor partners of Afghanistan including the United States Agency for International Development have made a commitment of $2 billion. “The fund gap is about $5-6 billion in all infrastructure projects,” Osmani told reporters after the conclusion of a summit in Dubai. Osmani further added that Afghanistan is also in discussions with a few UAE companies for some of its gas, solar and hydro projects. According to the officials, the power generated from Afghanistan could be even exported to neighbouring countries like India and Pakistan, home to a 1 billion-plus population. The latest attempts by Afghan government with the support of its international allies to attract foreign investments in energy sector of the country came as efforts are underway to boost the domestic income of the country, specifically through investments on natural resources of Afghanistan. The Afghan government signed over 80 mining contracts with the private sector earlier last month in a bid to boost the extraction of mines and prevent illegal extraction of the mining. This article originally appeared on www.khaama.com, September 20, 2016. Original link. Disclaimer: Views expressed in the article are not necessarily supported by CRSS.
India’s 007, Former Super Spy, Is Shaping Modi’s Foreign Policy
He spent seven years undercover in Pakistan, recruited rebels as informants in disputed Kashmir, and once disguised himself as a rickshaw driver to infiltrate a militant group inside India’s holiest Sikh temple. Now some consider Ajit Doval the most powerful person in India after Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Modi picked Doval as his National Security Advisor, a position that holds more sway than the ministers of defense and foreign affairs. It puts Doval in charge of talks with arch-rival Pakistan. He visits arms manufacturers to discuss strategic capabilities, and orchestrates the response to militant attacks, liaising daily with Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar, the nation’s top diplomat. Since Doval took the job, he has supported a nationalist agenda while adopting a tougher line against hostile neighbors. That has growing economic ramifications as China funds a $45 billion trade corridor through Pakistan that bypasses India and as both China and India eye resource-rich neighbors in central Asia like Afghanistan. “Every strategic issue in this region involves security in a way that it doesn’t in other regions,” says R. K. Sawhney, a former director general of military intelligence who’s known Doval for nearly two decades. “As the profile of the country grows, the profile of the national security advisor grows.” Short, trim and bespectacled, Doval shuns the limelight and rarely appears in public. His office said he wasn’t available for an interview. Six people who have known him personally for years—some of whom requested not to be identified because he dislikes publicity—said Doval is overseeing India’s most delicate diplomatic issues. Shortly after taking office, Modi sent Doval as his special envoy to Afghanistan and brought him on his first foreign trip to Bhutan. He’s also special representative in charge of talks with China over a disputed border, a task made more difficult as China plans to invest millions into transportation links through Kashmir, an...
India's 007, Former Super Spy, Is Shaping Modi's Foreign Policy
He spent seven years undercover in Pakistan, recruited rebels as informants in disputed Kashmir, and once disguised himself as a rickshaw driver to infiltrate a militant group inside India’s holiest Sikh temple. Now some consider Ajit Doval the most powerful person in India after Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Modi picked Doval as his National Security Advisor, a position that holds more sway than the ministers of defense and foreign affairs. It puts Doval in charge of talks with arch-rival Pakistan. He visits arms manufacturers to discuss strategic capabilities, and orchestrates the response to militant attacks, liaising daily with Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar, the nation’s top diplomat. Since Doval took the job, he has supported a nationalist agenda while adopting a tougher line against hostile neighbors. That has growing economic ramifications as China funds a $45 billion trade corridor through Pakistan that bypasses India and as both China and India eye resource-rich neighbors in central Asia like Afghanistan. “Every strategic issue in this region involves security in a way that it doesn’t in other regions,” says R. K. Sawhney, a former director general of military intelligence who’s known Doval for nearly two decades. “As the profile of the country grows, the profile of the national security advisor grows.” Short, trim and bespectacled, Doval shuns the limelight and rarely appears in public. His office said he wasn’t available for an interview. Six people who have known him personally for years—some of whom requested not to be identified because he dislikes publicity—said Doval is overseeing India’s most delicate diplomatic issues. Shortly after taking office, Modi sent Doval as his special envoy to Afghanistan and brought him on his first foreign trip to Bhutan. He’s also special representative in charge of talks with China over a disputed border, a task made more difficult as China plans to invest millions into transportation links through Kashmir, an...
Indian Factor in Afghanistan
For the past 10 years or so, India has been fishing in the troubled waters of Afghanistan for a central role and to marginalize Pakistan in the final settlement of the Afghan issue. Despite its historical relations, bolstered by a decade-long Hamid Karzai’s pro-India policies and its surging ability to extend economic assistance, India did not really succeed in its mission. Even the signing of Strategic Partnership Agreement in 2011 did not ensure Indian primacy to the extent that Pakistan should feel squeezed and its interests crashed beyond repair. Now that President Ashraf Ghani in his visit to New Delhi has completely reversed his two-year-old policies of depending on Pakistan rather than on India, Pakistan is deniably nervous. Civilian and military establish are denouncing the move as a grave security threat for Pakistan. The US government and Afghanistan jointly agreed that India could play a bigger role in Afghanistan under a trilateral framework. India was already providing weapons, raising the fighting capacity of the Afghan Army and the National Police against Taliban groups and ISIS. To this effect, a conclusive statement came at the India-US Strategic Commercial dialogue in Delhi on August 29, 2016 from Secretary of State John Kerry. He announced that in September the United States, India and Afghanistan would finally hold a trilateral dialogue in New York this month. For those who have been watching Indian maneuverings during the decades-long government of President Hamid Karzai and Pakistan’s continued failure to assuage Afghan’s concerns regarding Islamabad efforts to persuade Taliban groups to remain engaged in national reconciliation process aimed at reduction of violence and establishing lasting peace in Afghanistan, the tripartite agreement is not a big surprise. With Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) of Afghanistan, Pakistan, the United States and China dead, and no possibility of all Taliban groups minus Hekmat Gulbadeen Yar group...
Prepare for The Worst: The Indian State Is In Retreat In Kashmir
In case anyone hasn’t cottoned on yet, let us say up front: This is not a reprise of 2010. The daring attack at Uri on Sunday should make that clear. Sadly, one reason it happened is that those in authority have cussedly refused to accept the seriousness of the situation in Kashmir; internal and external factors are not mutually exclusive. We have stumbled, blinkered if not blindfolded, into the fog of war. The demonstrations across Kashmir since July 8 were only one strain of a complex development that is still in its early stages. Sadly, top functionaries of the state, the Army, home ministry, the intelligence setup and the Opposition have viewed the events as no more than a repeat of 2010. In fact, what we have witnessed in Kashmir is the overture to a dark opera that will unveil scenes from hell as it progresses from act to frightening act. I hope this prediction is wrong, but it is time to examine the worst-case scenario: A repeat of what happened from 1962 to 1965, compressed into a crushing punch. During those years, Chinese troops advanced into Indian territory in 1962, the Valley erupted in uproar a year later, Pakistan intensely shelled the Ceasefire Line (now the Line of Control) from July 1964, and launched Operation Gibraltar a year later. That operation was an attempt to take over Kashmir through coordinated action by infiltrators, war manoeuvres by the Pakistan Army and by ordinary Kashmiris who Pakistani strategists hoped would rise in revolt. It did not work. But there are at least three reasons why current Pakistani strategists might want to try again. One, China is backing them now; Bhutto’s wooing of the dragon from 1963 on has paid off richly. Two, the past two months must have convinced them that the Kashmiris will revolt this time — indeed, already have. Three, they may think that the West is on board, based on recent noises from the US media and the UN. Upping the ante through Balochistan is an ambitious gambit, but the finest...
Surgical Strikes Post-Uri?
The writer heads the independent Centre for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad and is author of Pakistan: Pivot of Hizbut Tahrir’s Global Caliphate Within hours of the Uri attack, many Indians began drumming up the idea of surgical strikes into Pakistan. This chorus takes one back to the outrage that the November 26, 2008 Mumbai attacks had caused across India. Then, the tone and tenor that most Indians, including some of their best writers such C Raja Mohan, deployed was one of punishing lessons for Pakistan through surgical strikes. And this forces me to recall a conversation I had with one senior military official. Then I had dismissed this as a typical propaganda against President Asif Ali Zardari. But the new situation prompts me to place this conversation on record, particularly because ex foreign minister Khursid Kasuri too narrated an encounter along the same lines. One late evening in early December on that year, President Zardari summoned a meeting with prime minister Yousuf Raza Gillani and the army chief General Ashfaq Kayani. The subject being the furious Indian mood. At one point, the president threw a question at both Kayani and Gillani; “what if we allowed the Indians a few symbolic strikes at certain insignificant places. This could help in cooling down their rage,” the official had recounted. A baffled General Kayani, the official said, looked at Gillani for his opinion. “I think this could be counter-productive for us, politically unwise,” Gilani said. Emboldened by this, Kayani finally spoke out; Mr President, how can we afford this politically. A single shot fired from across the border would amount to declaration of war and my own army officers, our people will lynch us if did not respond to it. With this the meeting came to an abrupt end. Once in the car, the embittered army chief called up the chief and asked him to scramble jets for a round-the-clock aerial patrol of the eastern border regions. The near corroboration of this...
Responding to a Dangerous Time
Following joint analysis has been penned by Pakistan's three former foreign secretaries Inam ul Haq, Riaz Hussain Khokhar, Riaz Mohammad Khan, and Mahmud Durrani, retired major general an ex-national security advisor. It resonates most of common sentiment across the country and CRSS is therefore reproducing for the benefit of the larger readership. Pakistan is facing an exceptionally dangerous challenge with aggressive rhetoric and threats from India and Afghanistan and hostile narratives gaining resonance in Washington. Failing to suppress the sustained uprising in India-held Kashmir, the Modi government has intensified its smear campaign against Pakistan in yet another attempt to portray the Kashmiri protest as Pakistan-inspired terrorism. Following the attack on the Uri Indian army camp, India may heat up the Line of Control (LoC) to detract attention from its atrocities in the Valley. Pakistan should even be ready for worse. In this trying situation, Pakistan can rely on diplomatic support from China and friends in the Islamic world. But much depends on our own defence preparedness and our diplomacy. We need to devise a policy response that helps reduce the threat without giving the Kashmiris a feeling of a let-down. First we must address our vitiated relations with Kabul and Washington which have nosedived since the collapse of the quadripartite process. Regardless of the grave policy errors made since its intervention in Afghanistan, much like those made later in Iraq, Washington has chosen to blame Pakistan for its woes in Afghanistan. Both Washington and Kabul believe that sanctuaries in Pakistan sustain the Afghan Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. Our well-intentioned commitment to nudge the Taliban towards reconciliation, bring them to the negotiating table and our apparent eagerness to play a role have turned us into a Taliban accomplice. It is time to rethink our Taliban policy. We must make a clear policy declaration that Pakistan cannot take...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.