He spent seven years undercover in Pakistan, recruited rebels as informants in disputed Kashmir, and once disguised himself as a rickshaw driver to infiltrate a militant group inside India’s holiest Sikh temple. Now some consider Ajit Doval the most powerful person in India after Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Modi picked Doval as his National Security Advisor, a position that holds more sway than the ministers of defense and foreign affairs. It puts Doval in charge of talks with arch-rival Pakistan. He visits arms manufacturers to discuss strategic capabilities, and orchestrates the response to militant attacks, liaising daily with Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar, the nation’s top diplomat. Since Doval took the job, he has supported a nationalist agenda while adopting a tougher line against hostile neighbors. That has growing economic ramifications as China funds a $45 billion trade corridor through Pakistan that bypasses India and as both China and India eye resource-rich neighbors in central Asia like Afghanistan. “Every strategic issue in this region involves security in a way that it doesn’t in other regions,” says R. K. Sawhney, a former director general of military intelligence who’s known Doval for nearly two decades. “As the profile of the country grows, the profile of the national security advisor grows.” Short, trim and bespectacled, Doval shuns the limelight and rarely appears in public. His office said he wasn’t available for an interview. Six people who have known him personally for years—some of whom requested not to be identified because he dislikes publicity—said Doval is overseeing India’s most delicate diplomatic issues. Shortly after taking office, Modi sent Doval as his special envoy to Afghanistan and brought him on his first foreign trip to Bhutan. He’s also special representative in charge of talks with China over a disputed border, a task made more difficult as China plans to invest millions into transportation links through Kashmir, an...

He spent seven years undercover in Pakistan, recruited rebels as informants in disputed Kashmir, and once disguised himself as a rickshaw driver to infiltrate a militant group inside India’s holiest Sikh temple. Now some consider Ajit Doval the most powerful person in India after Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Modi picked Doval as his National Security Advisor, a position that holds more sway than the ministers of defense and foreign affairs. It puts Doval in charge of talks with arch-rival Pakistan. He visits arms manufacturers to discuss strategic capabilities, and orchestrates the response to militant attacks, liaising daily with Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar, the nation’s top diplomat. Since Doval took the job, he has supported a nationalist agenda while adopting a tougher line against hostile neighbors. That has growing economic ramifications as China funds a $45 billion trade corridor through Pakistan that bypasses India and as both China and India eye resource-rich neighbors in central Asia like Afghanistan. “Every strategic issue in this region involves security in a way that it doesn’t in other regions,” says R. K. Sawhney, a former director general of military intelligence who’s known Doval for nearly two decades. “As the profile of the country grows, the profile of the national security advisor grows.” Short, trim and bespectacled, Doval shuns the limelight and rarely appears in public. His office said he wasn’t available for an interview. Six people who have known him personally for years—some of whom requested not to be identified because he dislikes publicity—said Doval is overseeing India’s most delicate diplomatic issues. Shortly after taking office, Modi sent Doval as his special envoy to Afghanistan and brought him on his first foreign trip to Bhutan. He’s also special representative in charge of talks with China over a disputed border, a task made more difficult as China plans to invest millions into transportation links through Kashmir, an...

  In case anyone hasn’t cottoned on yet, let us say up front: This is not a reprise of 2010. The daring attack at Uri on Sunday should make that clear. Sadly, one reason it happened is that those in authority have cussedly refused to accept the seriousness of the situation in Kashmir; internal and external factors are not mutually exclusive. We have stumbled, blinkered if not blindfolded, into the fog of war. The demonstrations across Kashmir since July 8 were only one strain of a complex development that is still in its early stages. Sadly, top functionaries of the state, the Army, home ministry, the intelligence setup and the Opposition have viewed the events as no more than a repeat of 2010. In fact, what we have witnessed in Kashmir is the overture to a dark opera that will unveil scenes from hell as it progresses from act to frightening act. I hope this prediction is wrong, but it is time to examine the worst-case scenario: A repeat of what happened from 1962 to 1965, compressed into a crushing punch. During those years, Chinese troops advanced into Indian territory in 1962, the Valley erupted in uproar a year later, Pakistan intensely shelled the Ceasefire Line (now the Line of Control) from July 1964, and launched Operation Gibraltar a year later. That operation was an attempt to take over Kashmir through coordinated action by infiltrators, war manoeuvres by the Pakistan Army and by ordinary Kashmiris who Pakistani strategists hoped would rise in revolt. It did not work. But there are at least three reasons why current Pakistani strategists might want to try again. One, China is backing them now; Bhutto’s wooing of the dragon from 1963 on has paid off richly. Two, the past two months must have convinced them that the Kashmiris will revolt this time — indeed, already have. Three, they may think that the West is on board, based on recent noises from the US media and the UN. Upping the ante through Balochistan is an ambitious gambit, but the finest...