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Prepare for The Worst: The Indian State Is In Retreat In Kashmir
In case anyone hasn’t cottoned on yet, let us say up front: This is not a reprise of 2010. The daring attack at Uri on Sunday should make that clear. Sadly, one reason it happened is that those in authority have cussedly refused to accept the seriousness of the situation in Kashmir; internal and external factors are not mutually exclusive. We have stumbled, blinkered if not blindfolded, into the fog of war. The demonstrations across Kashmir since July 8 were only one strain of a complex development that is still in its early stages. Sadly, top functionaries of the state, the Army, home ministry, the intelligence setup and the Opposition have viewed the events as no more than a repeat of 2010. In fact, what we have witnessed in Kashmir is the overture to a dark opera that will unveil scenes from hell as it progresses from act to frightening act. I hope this prediction is wrong, but it is time to examine the worst-case scenario: A repeat of what happened from 1962 to 1965, compressed into a crushing punch. During those years, Chinese troops advanced into Indian territory in 1962, the Valley erupted in uproar a year later, Pakistan intensely shelled the Ceasefire Line (now the Line of Control) from July 1964, and launched Operation Gibraltar a year later. That operation was an attempt to take over Kashmir through coordinated action by infiltrators, war manoeuvres by the Pakistan Army and by ordinary Kashmiris who Pakistani strategists hoped would rise in revolt. It did not work. But there are at least three reasons why current Pakistani strategists might want to try again. One, China is backing them now; Bhutto’s wooing of the dragon from 1963 on has paid off richly. Two, the past two months must have convinced them that the Kashmiris will revolt this time — indeed, already have. Three, they may think that the West is on board, based on recent noises from the US media and the UN. Upping the ante through Balochistan is an ambitious gambit, but the finest...
Surgical Strikes Post-Uri?
The writer heads the independent Centre for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad and is author of Pakistan: Pivot of Hizbut Tahrir’s Global Caliphate Within hours of the Uri attack, many Indians began drumming up the idea of surgical strikes into Pakistan. This chorus takes one back to the outrage that the November 26, 2008 Mumbai attacks had caused across India. Then, the tone and tenor that most Indians, including some of their best writers such C Raja Mohan, deployed was one of punishing lessons for Pakistan through surgical strikes. And this forces me to recall a conversation I had with one senior military official. Then I had dismissed this as a typical propaganda against President Asif Ali Zardari. But the new situation prompts me to place this conversation on record, particularly because ex foreign minister Khursid Kasuri too narrated an encounter along the same lines. One late evening in early December on that year, President Zardari summoned a meeting with prime minister Yousuf Raza Gillani and the army chief General Ashfaq Kayani. The subject being the furious Indian mood. At one point, the president threw a question at both Kayani and Gillani; “what if we allowed the Indians a few symbolic strikes at certain insignificant places. This could help in cooling down their rage,” the official had recounted. A baffled General Kayani, the official said, looked at Gillani for his opinion. “I think this could be counter-productive for us, politically unwise,” Gilani said. Emboldened by this, Kayani finally spoke out; Mr President, how can we afford this politically. A single shot fired from across the border would amount to declaration of war and my own army officers, our people will lynch us if did not respond to it. With this the meeting came to an abrupt end. Once in the car, the embittered army chief called up the chief and asked him to scramble jets for a round-the-clock aerial patrol of the eastern border regions. The near corroboration of this...
Responding to a Dangerous Time
Following joint analysis has been penned by Pakistan's three former foreign secretaries Inam ul Haq, Riaz Hussain Khokhar, Riaz Mohammad Khan, and Mahmud Durrani, retired major general an ex-national security advisor. It resonates most of common sentiment across the country and CRSS is therefore reproducing for the benefit of the larger readership. Pakistan is facing an exceptionally dangerous challenge with aggressive rhetoric and threats from India and Afghanistan and hostile narratives gaining resonance in Washington. Failing to suppress the sustained uprising in India-held Kashmir, the Modi government has intensified its smear campaign against Pakistan in yet another attempt to portray the Kashmiri protest as Pakistan-inspired terrorism. Following the attack on the Uri Indian army camp, India may heat up the Line of Control (LoC) to detract attention from its atrocities in the Valley. Pakistan should even be ready for worse. In this trying situation, Pakistan can rely on diplomatic support from China and friends in the Islamic world. But much depends on our own defence preparedness and our diplomacy. We need to devise a policy response that helps reduce the threat without giving the Kashmiris a feeling of a let-down. First we must address our vitiated relations with Kabul and Washington which have nosedived since the collapse of the quadripartite process. Regardless of the grave policy errors made since its intervention in Afghanistan, much like those made later in Iraq, Washington has chosen to blame Pakistan for its woes in Afghanistan. Both Washington and Kabul believe that sanctuaries in Pakistan sustain the Afghan Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. Our well-intentioned commitment to nudge the Taliban towards reconciliation, bring them to the negotiating table and our apparent eagerness to play a role have turned us into a Taliban accomplice. It is time to rethink our Taliban policy. We must make a clear policy declaration that Pakistan cannot take...
No Morality Merchants in IOK
Despite the ongoing unprecedented oppressive Indian brutalities against Kashmiri youth and women in the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK), major global powers have not condemned the Narendra Modi government. So far, the killing of over 100 persons, blinding of hundreds of young people and injuring of over 4000 young and old people have largely failed to receive world attention and sympathy. The indifference is disquieting. Is it because of the economic power of India that the world has chosen to ignore the massive violence of human rights or the international community is not fully convinced that Kashmiris have the inalienable right to decide about their future. In Pakistan, successive governments have been accused of not pursuing consistent global support campaign to flag the Indian cruelty against the Kashmiri youth. While multiple factors exist for lapse on part of our successive governments, some basic elements, which caused sizeable global support for similar human rights violations, are missing in case of IOK agitation. In this context, it will be interesting to delve into the important elements posted by Clifford Bob in his essay entitled The Merchants of Morality (Foreign Policy 129(2002): 36-45) to identify what factors have impeded the genuine suffering of Kashmiris from reaching a broader audience in the “harsh Darwinian marketplace” of “global injustices”. The notion that a cause must compete for the World’s sympathy, money, and attention represents a troubling and perplexing irony, in the words of Bob (2002), because the most dire and troubling crises are never the ones with the most widespread reception, lest they “distort their principles” and “alienate their constituencies” to appease “self-interested donors”. Bob cites the prominence of the Tibetan cause as opposed to that of the Uighurs, wherein both nations are allegedly subsumed by China, but only one of these two, which is personified by the Dalai Lama, draws large media reception and resonance....
Pakistan and Afghanistan Fight Terrorism, Boost Trade
Pakistan and Afghanistan are co-operating on a number of projects aimed at encouraging development and trade and restoring peace in the region. The most recent project approved by Pakistani authorities is the Peshawar-Kabul Expressway, Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Nafees Zakaria told Pakistan Forward. When completed, the expressway will stretch 276km between Peshawar and Kabul, according to the Pakistani National Highway Authority (NHA). The highway will eliminate a missing link between Afghanistan and the Pakistani seaport of Karachi. A smaller road does connect the cities now, but the future expressway will have four lanes, according to the NHA. Pakistan already has started building a two-lane (dual carriageway) highway almost entirely in Afghanistan, between Jalalabad and the Torkham border crossing, NHA spokesman Kashif Zaman said, adding that the highway, when complete, will replace a single-lane Jalalabad-Torkham road that dates back to 2006. "Such co-operation is a pre-requisite for fruitful political engagement," said Imtiaz Gul, executive director of the Islamabad-based Centre for Research and Security Studies. "Roads bring people together." The countries are major trading partners. Pakistan is the largest importer of Afghan goods, buying US $188m (Rs. 19.6 billion) worth in 2014, according to the World Trade Organisation. That same year, Afghanistan bought US $1.3 billion (Rs. 135.9 billion) of Pakistani merchandise. The countries plan to raise their annual bilateral trade to US $5 billion (Rs. 522.5 billion) by 2018, Pakistani Prime Minister Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif confirmed last November in Islamabad to visiting Afghan Minister of Finance Eklil Ahmad Hakimi. "Pakistan believes that a peaceful, prosperous and progressive Afghanistan is in the best interest of the country and the region," Nawaz Sharif said at the time. "Pakistan will extend all possible support to Afghanistan ... to consolidate a long-term bilateral and regional...
Coordinated Bombs in Kabul Kill Senior Afghan Officials at Defense Ministry
A pair of coordinated Taliban bombings targeted the Afghan Defense Ministry in a crowded neighborhood of Kabul on Monday, officials said, killing at least 24 people and wounding dozens, among them senior security officials. Sediq Sediqqi, a spokesman for the Interior Ministry, said an army general and a police colonel in charge of the area’s security were among the dead. Other officials said the deputy director of President Ashraf Ghani’s elite protection force had also been killed. At least 50 people were wounded, Mr. Sediqqi said. A spokesman for the Health Ministry put that number at 91. Hours later, just before midnight, a third explosion shook much of the city. Witnesses said that a car bomb had exploded outside a guesthouse near Kabul Bank, in the downtown Shar-e Naw neighborhood, and that gunmen had then tried to enter the house. Police special forces rushed to the scene, and sporadic gunfire could be heard. The Defense Ministry is near a crowded bazaar along the Kabul River, and the earlier explosions happened just as official hours were ending and government employees were heading home. The presidential palace and several other government agencies are also in the area. Mohammad Radmanish, a Defense Ministry spokesman, said both blasts had been suicide bombings. The first bomber detonated his explosives by a bridge outside the entrance to the ministry around 3:30 p.m. “When people and security forces arrived for help, the second attacker blew himself up among the crowd,” Mr. Radmanish said. Zabihullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesman, said in a statement to the news media that his group was responsible for the explosions. The Taliban’s statement said that the first blast had been caused by placed explosives and that the second one had been a suicide bombing. The bombings were the latest in a summer-long wave of attacks on government or Western targets in the capital, including a complex attack by gunmen with suicide vests on the American University that killed...
Ashraf Ghani Meets Modi in Delhi: Full Text of India-Afghanistan Joint Statement
Prime Minister Narendra Modi received Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani on Wednesday on his second trip to India. Both the countries exchanged several agreements on extradition, mutual legal assistance treaty, peaceful uses of outer space, according to the Ministry of External Affairs. Modi and Ghani expressed concern at the continued use of terrorism and violence in region for achieving political objectives. They also agreed that this phenomenon presented the single biggest threat to peace, stability and progress in the region and beyond. Both the leaders also reaffirmed their resolve to counter terrorism and strengthen security and defence cooperation. Later in the day, Ghani, along with Minister of State for External Affairs VK Singh, will address an interactive business meeting. The visiting dignitary will also deliver a speech at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses before paying a courtesy call on President Pranab Mukherjee in the evening. Here is the India-Afghanistan joint statement released by MEA during the visit: The President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan His Excellency Dr Mohammad Ashraf Ghani was warmly welcomed on his working visit to India on 14 and 15 September, 2016. During the visit, he held discussions with Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and will be received later on Wednesday by Rashtrapatiji. Meeting President Ghani, Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi fondly recalled his visits to Kabul and Herat in December 2015 and June this year, respectively. The Prime Minister mentioned that he cherished both the warm reception he had received during those visits and the fruitful discussions then and in his other meetings with the President in Tehran (May 2016) and Tashkent (June 2016). Both leaders expressed their happiness at the close and regular consultations between India and Afghanistan at all levels, which have served to guide their strategic partnership and strengthen all-round cooperation. Recalling that India-Afghanistan...
Flawed approach to Pakistan
THERE are several choices that Pakistan has made over the decades that have contributed to regional problems and there continue to be areas where official rhetoric and policies on the ground do not quite match. But increasingly apparent is the sense that regional dynamics are once again converging against Pakistan and its interests. And once again, terrorism and Afghanistan are the sources of growing regional differences. Testifying before the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Olson resorted to what has long been a cornerstone, and a flawed one at that, of US policy towards Pakistan: seeing this country through the prism of Afghanistan. With the centrality of US demands of Pakistan concerning in some way or the other the need for stabilising Afghanistan, is it really surprising that so much suspicion still remains here about America’s true goals and intentions? It is not so much that America’s demands are wrong — a terror-free neighbourhood is in the fundamental interest of all — than the seemingly lopsided focus of demands. For a decade and a half now, the US has directly and indirectly tried to defeat the Afghan Taliban insurgency without quite acknowledging that much of that victory depends on Kabul providing a viable and reliable governance alternative. First, the Hamid Karzai era was propped up regardless of the obviously and massively damaging choices that dispensation made for political stability and governance. Now, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is also being insulated from domestic pressures by a virtual American guarantee that the National Unity Government will complete its term no matter if it delivers on constitutional and governance reforms. Freed from having to bear the weight of querulous domestic politics alone thanks to US support, Mr Ghani is turning to external issues, which, in this case, means essentially blaming Pakistan for all of Afghanistan’s internal problems and seeking...
Misunderstanding Afghanistan
Pakistanis, no matter what their political inclination may be, rarely consider Afghanistan a sovereign set of people. There are the right-wingers for whom Afghanistan is a country where we can fight our eternal battles against India. Not quite home but a place where he have home advantage – like Misbah’s team playing their cricket in the UAE. Others profess concern for Afghanistan but that usually ends up taking a paternalistic form, an ‘Oh, poor Afghanistan’ kind of pity which does not give the country and its rulers the agency to be responsible for charting their own course. This infantalisation of Afghanistan is particularly severe when discussing the country’s ties with India. The billion dollars in aid that India has offered Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is seen, depending on where one falls on the hawk-dove spectrum, either as proof that the two countries are scheming against us or understood as a natural response to our constant meddling. Here’s a thought: maybe Afghanistan is doing what’s best for it and is accepting even more money from the country that is the fifth largest donor to the country. Any deal with India has to have a certain amount of anti-Pakistan rhetoric built into it but maybe, for once, everything isn’t about us. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is no ideologue. He is certainly an ambitious schemer but that is balanced out by his technocratic instincts. His predecessor Hamid Karzai was similar but had rougher edges, likely because he was at least in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion and its aftermath. Ghani served Afghanistan in the vital battlefields of Columbia University, Berkeley, Johns Hopkins and the World Bank. This is a man with ice-cold pragmatism running through his veins. After his election as president in 2014 – or rather his brokered agreement with Abdullah Abdullah in 2014 which elevated him to the presidency – Ghani was conciliatory towards Pakistan. Bilateral visits were filled with warm words. Analysts in Pakistan...
It takes Two to Tango
Before looking at the future of the current thaw, let us rewind to the tumultuous year of 1999. In February that year, Atal Behari Vajpayee became the first Indian prime minister to cross Wahga border on board a bus and eventually visit the Minar-e-Pakistan as a great gesture of recognition of the Muslim state. Within five months of that historic visit, he received probably the biggest snub when his forces found out that Pakistan Army and militants had intruded into the Indian-controlled Kashmiri territory and occupied several strategic peaks. The ensuing summer was hot and ended with humiliation for Pakistan when prime minister Nawaz Sharif had to rush to Washington and sign a deal virtually dictated by New Delhi. Six months later, the Indians endured another blow. This time, militants hijacked the flight 814 from Nepal and eventually landed it in Kandahar. On December 30th, Indian foreign minister Jaswant Singh flew into Kandahar with Omar Saeed Sheikh, Maulana Masood Azhar and Mushtaq Zargar for their release in return for some 250 Indian passengers. “We will never surrender to terrorists,” an agitated and upset Singh told media after handing over four Kashmiri militants to Taliban foreign minister Abdul Wakeel Muttawakil. Within ten months, Pakistani military and militants had delivered two serious blows to the Indian ego, and that became the basis for the Indo-US strategic dialogue on terrorism, with counter-terrorism cooperation being the key component. “We will absorb what you have done to us,” Vivek Katju, the chief negotiator of the Indian team told me outside the Kandahar airport terminal on December 31st, pointing to the aircraft, which was being readied for the flight back. “But you will not be able to absorb what we might do to you.” His words clearly implied his belief that Pakistani agencies were behind the aircraft hijacking. The rest is open to imagination. It took the Indian leadership about four years to recover from the insult at Kandahar...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.