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Analysis: Rising Tensions; Possible Pakistan-India War Viewpoint
The Indian analysts and experts believe that once a war sparks between India and Pakistan, New Delhi and Islamabad cannot fight more than 18 days. Ajai Sanhi, the Executive Director of the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi has commented on the flaring tensions between India and Pakistan, saying that the Indian leaders are well aware that they cannot engage in a battle with Pakistan that lasts more than 15 days. At the same time, it is not possible for Pakistan to manage a direct war with India for a long time. Meanwhile, some hard-line Hindu leaders and army commanders have asked the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take heavy-handed measures against Pakistan including intruding the Pakistani territory and launching military operations against the Pakistani extremist groups. However, many experts have argued that New Delhi is not qualified for this kind of measures. According to the AFP, the Indian leaders are now examining five war plans to fight Pakistan. Ajit Dobby, a military and defense analyst at The Week magazine has written an article about the recent tensions between Islamabad and New Delhi. He wrote that India has stationed infiltrating forces in Pakistan, particularly in Kashmir region, and at the present time it can inflict damages on Pakistan using them. According to Dobby, India will try to isolate Pakistan internationally. To this end, it is following some plans, the analyst said. The present time is the best time for India to realize this goal. Meanwhile, the media in India have called on their government to recall the Indian ambassador to Pakistan. For long years India secretly has been offering support for the separatist movements in Pakistan’s Balochistan province in a bid to spread instability across the area and so prepare the ground for sectarian and ethnic clashes there. But, to surprise of all, the Indian prime minister a couple of weeks ago in his speech has openly announced backing of the separatists of...
Another Repatriation Centre for Afghan Refugees Opened
The United Nations refugee agency inaugurated on Wednesday its second voluntary repatriation centre to facilitate the safe and dignified return of Afghan refugees to their homeland. With the opening of the new centre in Azakhel, Nowshera, the UNHCR now has the capacity to facilitate the return of up to 10,000 refugees everyday through the Torkham border crossing. The inauguration ceremony was attended, among others, by UNHCR Representative in Pakistan Indrika Ratwatte, Chief Commissioner for Afghan Refugees Dr Imran Zeb Khan and Afghan Ambassador to Pakistan Dr Omar Zakhilwal. A high-level delegation comprising ambassadors of the European Union, Austria, the Czech Republic and Denmark and charge d’ affaires of the Netherlands was also present. Speaking on the occasion, Mr Ratwatte commended the Pakistani government for extending the stay of Afghan refugees in the country to March 31 next year. “The extension is an important decision made by the government of Pakistan which recognises the importance of policies to manage the legal stay of registered Afghans in Pakistan,” he said. Dr Zeb Khan said the government had ensured that the repatriation remained voluntary in nature and that the refugees returned home in safety and dignity. He also acknowledged the Afghan government’s commitment towards facilitating the repatriation process and praised the steps being taken by it to enable the refugees’ sustainable reintegration in their country. Ambassador Zakhilwal encouraged the Afghan refugees to return home “despite the many challenges” and join the nation-building process. He said the fact that Afghan refugees were returning to their homeland of their free will demonstrated their confidence in the efforts being made in this regard by the Afghan national unity government. The ambassadors visited the repatriation centres at Azakhel and Chamkani, in Peshawar, met elders of the Afghan Refugee Shura and talked to them about their time spent in Pakistan and their...
In A First For Post-Taliban Afghanistan, A Grass-Roots Protest Movement Challenges The Government
Two years after assuming power, Afghanistan’s flailing, U.S.-brokered unity government is facing a growing challenge from the biggest grass-roots protest movement since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. Calling themselves the Enlightening, members of the Hazara ethnic minority have mobilized several mass demonstrations against what they say is systematic discrimination by President Ashraf Ghani’s government. They want more economic development and a greater share of positions in the Cabinet, ambassador corps and military. Organizers called off a protest planned for this week in Kabul and agreed to begin talks with the government, averting a possibly tense showdown as the government marks its second anniversary Thursday. With security in Kabul increasingly fragile, United Nations and civil society representatives persuaded Enlightening leaders to cancel the protest. “Given the security challenges, we can’t reach our goals only by continuing protests,” said Sultan Haidari, 36, an activist in Kabul. “There are ways to achieve our demands through talks. … I think more protests will be the last option.” But the group said it would resume demonstrations if the negotiations with the government fail. The Afghan government said in a statement that it “respected the civil movements and [is] ready for any discussions about demands that have been considered by the people.” The last time the group took to the streets of Kabul, two months ago, twin explosions killed more than 80 people and wounded hundreds. The Islamic State militant organization claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it targeted Shiite Muslims; most Hazaras are Shiite. Enlightening leaders say the government has failed to launch a proper investigation. Another mass gathering would have embarrassed Ghani’s government just a week before an international conference in Brussels at which the United States and other donor countries are expected to tout progress in Afghanistan and renew funding pledges....
EU's Secret Ultimatum to Afghanistan: Accept 80,000 Deportees or Lose Aid
When international donors and the Afghan government convene in Brussels next week, the EU secretly plans to threaten Afghanistan with a reduction in aid if the war-torn country does not accept at least 80,000 deported asylum seekers. According to a leaked restricted memo (pdf), the EU will make some of its aid “migration sensitive”, even while acknowledging that security in Afghanistan is worsening. Meanwhile, the Afghan government is also struggling with internal turmoil, and has failed to revive the economy or produce jobs for the young who leave the country in droves. It would be challenging for Afghanistan to absorb 80,000 deportations. So far, in 2016, about 5,000 Afghans have returned voluntarily from Europe. “This is putting unreasonable pressure on the Afghan government, which is not able to respond to such numbers,” said Timor Sharan, senior analyst for the International Crisis Group in Afghanistan. Afghans make up the second largest group of migrants arriving in Europe, with1 96,170 applying for asylum (pdf) last year. At the two-day summit in Brussels, which begins on 4 October, international donors are expected to roughly match the $4bn (£3bn) annually pledged at the 2012 Tokyo conference over the next four years. The pressure on Afghanistan is part of a broader EU strategy of making aid to poor countries conditional on them accepting deported migrants. The best known example is the €6bn deal (£5.2bn) offered to Turkey in exchange for taking back asylum seekers and improving border controls. Other targeted countries include Niger, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Lebanon and Libya. The EU has also considered similar deals with Eritrea and Sudan, the governments of which are accused of crimes against humanity and war crimes. In Afghanistan, analysts warn that the EU is sending people back to danger and destitution. Yousuf* fled Afghanistan in 2011. His father was a policeman under the communist regime of the 1980s. Yousuf, 28, himself a communist, received threats...
EU’s Secret Ultimatum to Afghanistan: Accept 80,000 Deportees or Lose Aid
When international donors and the Afghan government convene in Brussels next week, the EU secretly plans to threaten Afghanistan with a reduction in aid if the war-torn country does not accept at least 80,000 deported asylum seekers. According to a leaked restricted memo (pdf), the EU will make some of its aid “migration sensitive”, even while acknowledging that security in Afghanistan is worsening. Meanwhile, the Afghan government is also struggling with internal turmoil, and has failed to revive the economy or produce jobs for the young who leave the country in droves. It would be challenging for Afghanistan to absorb 80,000 deportations. So far, in 2016, about 5,000 Afghans have returned voluntarily from Europe. “This is putting unreasonable pressure on the Afghan government, which is not able to respond to such numbers,” said Timor Sharan, senior analyst for the International Crisis Group in Afghanistan. Afghans make up the second largest group of migrants arriving in Europe, with1 96,170 applying for asylum (pdf) last year. At the two-day summit in Brussels, which begins on 4 October, international donors are expected to roughly match the $4bn (£3bn) annually pledged at the 2012 Tokyo conference over the next four years. The pressure on Afghanistan is part of a broader EU strategy of making aid to poor countries conditional on them accepting deported migrants. The best known example is the €6bn deal (£5.2bn) offered to Turkey in exchange for taking back asylum seekers and improving border controls. Other targeted countries include Niger, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Lebanon and Libya. The EU has also considered similar deals with Eritrea and Sudan, the governments of which are accused of crimes against humanity and war crimes. In Afghanistan, analysts warn that the EU is sending people back to danger and destitution. Yousuf* fled Afghanistan in 2011. His father was a policeman under the communist regime of the 1980s. Yousuf, 28, himself a communist, received threats...
SCO Starts First-Ever Military Exercises In Kyrgyzstan
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is conducting its first joint military exercises in Kyrgyzstan, just weeks after a suicide bomber attacked the Chinese embassy in Bishkek. The 2016 version of the SCO's Peace Mission exercise kicked off on Thursday at the Edelweiss training center near Lake Issyk-Kul. As is often the case, the scenario of the exercise involves an "anti-terror" operation with considerably heavier firepower than is usually employed against terrorists. Chinese helicopters, for example,practiced using air-to-air missiles. "The need to conduct such exercises is dictated by modern realities," said Colonel Ruslan Mukambetov, the Kyrgyzstan officer commanding the exercises. "They have repeatedly proven their relevance and significance amid the current international situation, both in the SCO area of responsibility and in the world at large... In addition to its direct purpose - the fight against terrorism, extremism and separatism - they also promote closer military cooperation between our countries’ armed forces." There seems to be some discrepancies in the reporting of how many troops are involved: The official Chinese People's Liberation Army news site said that it was 1,100, while Mukambetov said it was 2,000. The Russian contingent is reportedly 500 strong, and the Chinese, about 300. In any case, that's a big drop from the last iteration of these exercises, in 2014 in China, when7,000 troops took part. The China Defense Blog noted that the numbers involved are "a far cry" from the scale of past exercises. The fact that the exercises coincide so closely with the attack on the Chinese embassy in Bishkek is a coincidence, as these were planned long in advance, but it's nevertheless one that's given the drills an extra resonance. The July 30 embassy attack involved "Uighur terrorist groups," Kyrgyzstan's State Committee on National Security announced. That raised the specter of the long-running Uighur insurgency in Xinjiang, just across the...
Putin Submits Treaty on Anti-Terrorist Cooperation With China for Ratification
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday has submitted an agreement between Russia and China on cooperation against terrorism, separatism and extremism for ratification by parliament, according to the State Duma's electronic database. MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Oleg Syromolotov was appointed the official representative of the president in the State Duma and the Federation Council for the ratification procedure. The agreement between Russia and the People's Republic of China was signed in Beijing on September 27, 2010. It envisions the development of bilateral cooperation in counterterrorism strategy, including joint measures for prevention, detection and suppression of terror activities. It stipulates an exchange of data concerning terrorist organizations, their proposed operations, the sources of financing, as well as information about illegal use of explosives, weapons and ammunition. The agreement is aimed at strengthening of Russia-China cooperation against terrorism based on the Shanghai Convention on Combating Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism, signed on June 15, 2001, and the SCO Convention Against Terrorism, singed on June 16, 2009, in Yekaterinburg. This article originally appeared on www.sputniknews.com, September 29 2016. Original link. Disclaimer: Views expressed in the article are not necessarily supported by CRSS.
Next SCO Exercise Peace Mission Due in Russia In 2018
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s member-countries will hold the next joint military exercise Peace Mission in Russia in 2018, the deputy chief of Russia’s General Staff, Sergey Istrakov, told the media on Tuesday. "The SCO chiefs of general staffs met in session to make a decision that their next meeting and next Peace Mission exercise will be held in Russia in 2018," Istrakov said. The SCO military officials reviewed the performance of the SCO regional anti-terrorist structure, the military-political situation in the region and measures to combat terrorism and religious extremism. They underscored the need for the defense ministries to present a common front in joint resistance to threats to security," Istrakov said. The current Peace Mission-2016 exercise is underway in Kyrgyzstan. It began on September 15 and will end tomorrow, September 21. Military contingents from Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan are taking part. This article originally appeared on www.in.rbth.com, September 20 2016. Original link. Disclaimer: Views expressed in the article are not necessarily supported by CRSS.
Should We Rethink Kashmir?
PRIME MINISTER Nawaz Sharif has perhaps done all that he could to draw the international community’s attention to the Kashmiri people’s ordeal. He and members of his large entourage spoke of India-held Kashmir to whoever they met in New York. By all accounts offered by our media services, the Kashmir mission, carried out with unusual vigour, went off well — this despite a slight slip while drafting the press release on the meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry and the attempt by Pakistan’s enemies to sabotage its efforts by attacking the Indian military camp at Uri. But was the world listening? The question is unavoidable in view of, among other things, the international community’s decision some years ago to delete the Kashmir issue from the list of its concerns. While voices may continue to be raised here and there in sympathy with the victims of oppression in any part of Jammu and Kashmir, the issue has been left to be resolved bilaterally by India and Pakistan. For many years now, the friends of India and Pakistan , and also of the people of Kashmir, have not gone beyond offering help to facilitate a negotiated settlement. Pakistan’s establishment has traditionally held the view that large-scale disorder in the Kashmir valley, gross violations of human rights, or a popular uprising there will oblige the world community to intervene and help the Kashmiri people gain their rights. Despite being tested several times this thesis has not been confirmed. What will happen in future cannot be foretold, but political realism cautions against putting excessive reliance on the international community’s capacity to intervene effectively. The whole of South Asia is paying heavily for the India-Pakistan confrontation. Now that bilateral talks offer the only way to settle the Kashmir issue, Pakistan cannot but continue to give priority to efforts in that direction. That India has responded with frenzied sabre-rattling, belatedly tempered with guile, is not...
Hidden Costs of CPEC
AN important announcement from the government went relatively unnoticed given the atmosphere that prevails, so let me reconstruct a timeline here to give everybody a better idea of what is going on. Last year on April 21, the day after Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Pakistan, the military put out a press release announcing the creation of a ‘Special Security Division for Pak-China Economic Projects’, which would consist of nine army battalions and six wings of civil armed forces, to be commanded by a major general. The force was supposed to be one of several being created for protection of Chinese investments and personnel in the country. The fact that the press release came the day after Xi Jinping’s visit, during which he also met the army high command, suggests that the matter was discussed between them during the meeting. In May, the finance minister told a Senate standing committee that Rs136 billion would be required for completing the military operation in North Waziristan, including the cost of rehabilitating the displaced people, and other security-related expenditures, which according to at least one report included the cost of raising the CPEC security force. The funding was programmed into the budget in June, and a waiver was obtained from the IMF from including this expense in the ceiling on the fiscal deficit, since it was a “one-off” measure. By September of that year, the fiscal deficit target had already been blown by more than Rs100 billion, and the finance minister was busy putting together a package of new, midyear revenue measures to help plug the shortfall. This package became a prior action under the IMF programme, which said in its eighth review that the federal government took measures to contain its expenditures “despite unforeseen expenditures of PRs 53 billion on account of Zarb-i-Azb military operations, hosting of Temporarily Displaced People (TDPs)”. Security expenditure has been growing at an alarming rate over the...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.