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Brics Summit: India Must Bide Time to Deal With China As Relationship With Pakistan Hit A New Low
The Brics Summit this weekend in Goa comes at a time when India-Pakistan relationship has hit a new low. Between Pakistan's renewed intransigence in leveraging anti-India proxies to prosecute its Kashmir agenda, and India's signal that will meet the same using limited military options, the discussions in Goa will invariably be coloured by the recent events in South Asia. Of special interest would be the stance China takes on terrorism during the Summit and whether it will look beyond its all-weather friendship with Pakistan to accommodate India's concerns when it comes to cross-border – and increasingly Islamist – terrorism. China's calculations will be driven by the relative weights its puts on its geopolitical imperatives behind supporting Pakistan, its professed desire to upgrade its relationship with an increasingly assertive India, and its own vulnerabilities when it comes to Islamist terrorism in the restive region of Xinjiang. At the face of it, China and Pakistan make for a strange couple – an avowedly secular one-party government on a relentless march towards domestic prosperity and international influence, and a revanchist power driven by the mosque and the military and in the news almost always for the wrong reasons. But there is a certain logic to this marriage of convenience between China and Pakistan. That China sees Pakistan as a geopolitical instrument to balance India's nearly-hegemonic presence in South Asia is obvious. China sees no reason why it can't also be an ersatz South Asian power by cultivating a client in the region. It also sees Pakistan as a key link to the Islamic world – especially at a time when it expands its footprint to the west of Asia. Finally, it views the proposed port of Gwadar in Balochistan as a key to mitigating its Malacca dilemma. That Pakistan can also emerge as a convenient location to dump its industrial surpluses and as low-cost labour base (especially as China moves towards higher-end manufacturing and the...
BRICS Goa Declaration Reflects Many Political Issues Important for Russia
Moscow is satisfied with the 8th BRICS summit outcome, Deputy Foreign Minister and Russia's BRICS Sherpa Sergey Ryabkov told Sputnik on Monday. GOA (Sputnik) – Moscow is satisfied with the 8th BRICS summit outcome, as the final declaration reflects many political issues important for Russia, Deputy Foreign Minister and Russia's BRICS Sherpa Sergey Ryabkov told Sputnik on Monday. Goa documents [Goa declaration and action plan on its implementation] reflect many political topics important for us, including the peaceful usage of space," Ryabkov said. In Goa declaration, leaders welcomed the recent decision by the UN Committee’s on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space working group to set guidelines for long-term sustainability of outer space by 2018. "Moreover, for the first time the declaration clearly set forth the support for the Russian initiative to work out an international convention to prohibit chemical and biological terrorism. It has never been mentioned before," Ryabkov said. He added that Russia was also satisfied with the mentioning of unacceptability of unilateral sanctions. These wordings are new. We used to have more standardized texts [declarations] before. Now they are much more focused on specifics and what we want to implement," Ryabkov said. The eighth annual BRICS event took place in India’s Goa on October 15 – 16, and was attended by leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, who discussed a plan for cooperation in the near future as well as a wide range of political, economic and security issues. This article originally appeared on www.sputniknews.com, October 17, 2016. Original link. Disclaimer: Views expressed in the article are not necessarily supported by CRSS.
Brics A Damp Squib: Narendra Modi Govt Should Check Its Obsession With Pakistan
The Brics summit and the overlapping Bimstec outreach meet of regional powers in Goa over the weekend were hyped up beyond expectation to deliver unrealistic results. "It was a damp squib," said former Cabinet Secretary Naresh Chandra. While terrorism was part of the Goa Declaration, Pakistan was not named. This had to do with China, and Russia did not try to overrule President Xi Jinping either. In its obsession with Pakistan, India overlooked the obvious: China would play its hand. Beijing had done so on the issue of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and over Masood Azhar in the UN Security Council. Why did India believe that China would change its views? That is a question both Indian diplomats and the government must answer. Goa was to play a pivotal part in India's diplomatic efforts to isolate Pakistan. Terror emanating from Pakistan was to be the main focus at both these meets. Ever since the Uri attack, Indian diplomacy has got stuck on a one point agenda: get the world to side with you and condemn Pakistan. This is all very well, but at a time when Indian ambitions of being a global player under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is soaring, the constant focus on Pakistan is bringing the country down to the India-Pakistan sub continental matrix. This is something successive governments had fought against for decades. Delhi would be piqued, if visiting dignitaries, especially from the US and other western nations, would also visit Pakistan. India wanted to break away from this with its connotations of the South Asian context. After Uri, India's entire foreign policy seems to be entirely focused on Pakistan. "The Goa meet is a textbook lesson on how not to conduct India's diplomacy," said the former bureaucrat who has a good hold on foreign affairs. He was also India's ambassador to the US when India conducted its nuclear tests in 1998. Considering that the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa grouping of the emerging economies is more a trade body, it was...
Indian, Afghan Intelligence Agencies Supporting Terrorism in Pakistan: IB Chief
Intelligence Bureau (IB) Director General Aftab Sultan, while speaking in the Senate standing committee meeting on Tuesday, said a large number of terrorists arrested during the last three years had connections with and were working for the Indian and Afghan intelligence agencies. “Out of the 865 terrorists arrested during the last three years, a significant number had connections with India’s RAW and the Afghan NDS,” said the chief of intelligence agency. The IB chief also said that China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is endangered by foreign intelligence agencies and anti-state elements. Replying to a question regarding missing persons during the Senate sub-committee’s meeting, Sultan stated that the IB was conducting 478 inquiries for missing persons, out of which 427 inquiries have been completed. Jadhav's arrest Earlier in March, law enforcement agencies announced the arrest of Kulbushan Jadhav, saying he had been picked up during an intelligence-based raid in Balochistan's Chaman area. The Indian Foreign Ministry earlier had confirmed the arrested man was a former Indian Navy officer, but the Pakistani government claimed to have recovered travel documents and multiple fake identities of Jadhav, establishing him as an Indian spy who entered into Balochistan through Iran — holding a valid Iranian visa. Jadhav was shifted to Islamabad for interrogation, during which an unnamed official said the spy revealed that he had purchased boats at the Iranian port in Chabahar in order to target Karachi and Gwadar ports in a terrorist plot. The official had said the 'RAW agent' is believed to be expert at Naval fighting techniques. Jadhav's confessions In a confessional video aired by the Inter-Services Public Relations and Federal Information Minister Pervaiz Rasheed at a joint press conference, Jadhav said: "I am still a serving officer in the Indian Navy and will be due for retirement in 2022." "By 2002, I commenced intelligence operations. In 2003, I established a...
Taliban and Afghanistan Restart Secret Talks In Qatar
The Taliban and representatives of the Afghan government have restarted secret talks in the Gulf state of Qatar, senior sources within the insurgency and the Kabul government have told the Guardian. Among those present at the meetings held in September and October was Mullah Abdul Manan Akhund, brother of Mullah Omar, the former Taliban chief who led the movement from its earliest days until his death in 2013. The two rounds of talks are the first known negotiations to have taken place since a Pakistan-brokered process entirely broke down following the death in a US drone strike of Omar’s successor, Mullah Akhtar Mansoor. Doha has been a centre for Taliban diplomacy since the movement was granted permission to set up an office in the Qatari capital in 2013, although that initiative became one of the many attempts to start a peace process that ultimately came to nothing following complaints from the Afghan government. Mullah Omar’s son, Mohammad Yaqoob, is expected to soon join the Doha group, a Taliban source said, in a move that would further bolster the authority of the office. No Pakistani official took part in either the October or September meetings, according to a member of the Taliban’s leadership council, the Quetta Shura. He said Islamabad has lost much of its traditional influence over a movement it has been associated with since it rose to power in Afghanistan in the mid-1990s. But according to the Taliban official, a senior US diplomat was present in the Qatar meetings. The US embassy in Afghanistan declined to comment on the claim. The Taliban official said the first meeting in early September “went positively and was held in a trouble-free atmosphere” in which Akhund sat face to face with Mohammed Masoom Stanekzai, Afghanistan’s intelligence chief. A second meeting took place in early October, despite continued fighting between government and insurgent forces. Recent weeks have seen the Taliban overrun Kunduz, a provincial capital, for the...
Govt Signals Willingness For Talks With Militant Outfits
With the war escalating in different parts of the country, the Ashraf Ghani administration on Wednesday signaled its willingness to consider different options on peace negotiations with militants. Presidential spokesman Haroon Chakhansuri indicated the government’s readiness for reconciliation talks, when approached for comments on a British newspaper regarding recent meetings between government and Taliban representatives. In response to an emailed query from Pajhwok Afghan News, Chakhansuri said: “Recently, we saw a notable number of Taliban’s Quetta Shura members showing willingness to engage in peace talks and that they understand it's important for them to establish contacts for political process directly with the government.” A day earlier, a British newspaper reported Mullah Abdul Manan Akhund, brother of Mullah Omar, was among participants of secret the meetings held in September and October.The two rounds of talks are the first known negotiations to have taken place since a Pakistan-brokered process broke down following the death in a US drone strike of Mullah Akhtar Mansoor. Chakhansuri believed the peace deal with the Hezb-i-Islami Afghanistan, led by Gulbadin Hekmatyar, had probably made an impact on other rebel outfits. There was more confidence among different groups in the government’s willingness to engaging in direct talks. Also on Wednesday, the Taliban denied resuming clandestine peace negotiations with Afghan government representatives in Qatar. “We reject the Guardian report regarding the resumption of talks between the Islamic Emirate and the Afghan government,” Zabihullah Mujahid said. This article originally appeared on www.pajhwok.com, October 19, 2016. Original link. Disclaimer: Views expressed in the article are not necessarily supported by CRSS.
Taliban-Kabul Talks Begin
On the 15th anniversary of the US invasion of Afghanistan, talks between representatives of Taliban and the Afghan Government have taken place in Doha, Qatar. Several rounds of talks had been held in late September and early October. The Afghan side was led by Mr Stanikzai, Afghan chief of Intelligence, while the Taliban team also included brother of the late Mullah Omar. A US representative also participated in the negotiations. Taliban agreeing to meet with Kabul government’s and US officials is a slight modification of their stance on the issue of parleys with the Afghan Government. After the death of Mullah Mansoor, the movement had resolved not to sit for talks with government representatives or with the Americans. It appears that those in favour of entering into negotiations have prevailed. An important dimension of the interaction is the near-absence of Pakistani mediators. The Doha round of talks has been preceded by arrests, in Pakistan,of a number of top ranking leaders of the Taliban movement mainly in Balochistan’s Pakhtun areas. The direct contacts between Taliban and the Kabul regime also show that communication channels have been established between the two entities—bypassing Islamabad. This is seen as a major victory for Kabul in its endeavours to seek direct access to the Taliban leadership without soliciting help from Islamabad. The Doha talks also show the deepening distrust between the Taliban and Pakistani officials. A breakdown of Islamabad-Kabul contacts is another factor that forced Ashraf Ghani’s government to intensify efforts to engage the Taliban in negotiations. Perhaps the most important cause of the Kabul government’s keenness to open talks with the Taliban is the relentless offensive launched by the latter in recent weeks and the impending fears of the fall of many towns both in North Afghanistan as well as the Taliban’s strongholds of Helmand, Kabul is also genuinely worried about any escalation in the number of defections...
Afghan Delegation Arrives for Track 1.5/2 Dialogue
A ten-member Afghan delegation comprising members of civil society and parliament arrived in Islamabad on Tuesday, October 18, 2016 for the first meeting in the land-mark series of Track 1.5/2 meetings/ dialogues. This initiative titled “Beyond Boundaries|Phase II” has been undertaken by the Islamabad based Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) – as part of its efforts to improve bilateral relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The project is being implemented in strategic partnership with Centers’ Afghan Counterpart organization Women & Peace Studies Organization (WPSO) and funded by the British High Commission in Islamabad. The Phase I of the project - which ran through November 2015 to March 2016 - brought together Afghan and Pakistani security and civil society experts for an unprecedented series of six meetings to: discuss bilateral acrimony, help deescalate the heightened tensions, soothe the bitter context and explore ways of improved cooperation between the two neighbours. The ongoing Phase II aims to convene six more meetings; formulating Pakistan Afghanistan Joint Committee (PAJC) with members from both the countries and address the same goals in a more focused manner. The Phase II of the project builds on the successful outcome of its prequel “Beyond Boundaries” which did a good job of initial ice-breaking, scene setting and laid foundation for more result-oriented conversations and structured dialogue to generate more actionable policy recommendations around the identified issues of border management, security, easement of formal trade, refugees, media-intellectual exchanges. The spectrum of potential discussion grounds has been further enhanced by the addition of issues like health, education and importance of dialogue for peace process after orientation meetings of the project. The idea of Pak- Afghan Joint Committee (PAJC) was to develop a bilateral Track II mechanism to try and help overcome the deeply-rooted...
Gwadar, CPEC and Questions
The extremely cautious and calculated Chinese approach -meticulous planning and patient/quiet execution represents a sharp contrast to the way Pakistani politics and bureaucracy works. Chinese officials and friends privately often complain of the propensity among Pakistanis of unnecessary bluster, emotional sloganeering and little pro-active approaches. For the Chinese dream of One Belt One Road and its offspring China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Gwadar holds the key. And that is why Chinese strategists and planners chose it for realising the first of the three corridors President Xi Jinping proposed. That is why the Chinese have snubbed the Indian premier Modi over re for instance, childishly/stupidly tried to drag President Xi Jinping and Putin into condemning Pakistan, without realising that Chinese policies and actions stem from deep thinking and meticulous planning. But Pakistanis must now adapt themselves to the Chinese expectations of hard work, detailed planning and self-less execution. The entire endeavour holds great promise for both China and Pakistan, and Balochistan in particular. And Gwadar is strategically central to this dream of development. What are the Pakistani leaders doing for the extremely under-developed and embattled Balochistan and KP? Their talk on CPEC and Gwadar as its lynchpin in fact begs numerous questions; where does the common man from Gwadar fit into these grand plans? Are the provincial and the governments at all cognisant of the skilled human resource that is required to service the shipping and industrial units envisioned for the free trading zone being set up. The focus on the impact of and the relevance of the socio-economic and environmental issues for the common man usually gets lost in the lofty strategic and economic discourse. As of now, this becomes obvious when moving through the dusty, dirty and mostly decrepit Gwadar old town. It offers a contrast to the grandiose official talk surrounding CPEC. The...
How the BRICS Can Help End War in Syria and Establish a New, Just World Order
The eighth BRICS Summit in Goa, India is winding down. On the eve of the summit, President Putin gave an interview to Sputnik and India's IANS news agency, outlining the BRICS' role in resolving the Syrian crisis. Experts say the Russian leader will do everything he can to use the organization to accelerate the creation of a multipolar world order. utin arrived in Goa on Saturday, starting his program of meetings with the leaders of India, China, Brazil and South Africa off with talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. On Sunday, BRICS leaders officially adopted the Goa Declaration. Crucially, this included a provision on the need to fully implement UN Security Council resolutions calling for peace in Syria and the continuation of the fight against terrorism, including against Daesh and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (aka Nusra Front). Commenting on the significance of the summit, Svobodnaya Pressa columnist Sergei Aksenov noted that Moscow has invested a great deal of political capital in the event. "In the context of global tensions, the decisions taken by the BRICS countries may seriously affect the international situation," the journalist wrote. President Putin confirmed as much in an interview for Sputnik and India's IANS news agency on the eve of the summit. Emphasizing that the BRICS group of countries "is one of the key elements of the emerging multipolar world," Putin pointed out that "our countries reject the policy of coercive pressure and infringement upon the sovereignty of other states." We take similar stances on urgent international issues, including the Syrian crisis and the Middle East settlement," Putin added. Noting that the BRICS powers have a "shared commitment" to observing fundamental principles of international law, including the central role of the United Nations, the president stressed that "with some Western countries attempting to promote their unilateral approaches, this position becomes even more relevant." In the past,...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.