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Trump Can’t End the War in Afghanistan Without Iran

During his bid for the U.S. presidency, Donald Trump all but ignored the war in Afghanistan. He did, however, pledge to reduce the footprint of U.S. intervention abroad, end nation-building, and most notably rip up the Iran deal. Yet these policies are incongruent because the U.S. simply cannot leave Afghanistan as a functioning state without the help of Iran. The refusal of U.S. policymakers to accept this reality is one reason the war against the Taliban has lasted 15 years and Afghanistan remains effectively partitioned between Kabul and the militants. While Afghanistan has six immediate neighbors, its two most relevant borders are with Pakistan and Iran. Both borders remain porous and useful to the Taliban, with arms and militants moving in and out of Pakistan, and opium moving through Iran. The curtailment of the opium trade and therefore the Taliban’s cash flow was a key component of President Barack Obama’s 2009 surge to retake Afghanistan. Elite Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) Foreign-Deployed Advisory and Support Teams (FAST) worked with special forces in southwest Afghanistan to destroy the opium labs and disrupt the flow out of the country. Although difficult to verify, it appears unlikely that the U.S. and Iran effectively coordinated in drug interdiction. Meanwhile Iran serves as the escape hatch through which Afghanistan supplies around 90 percent of the world’s opium. Despite historical animosity, Iran and the United State would have made natural allies in Afghanistan. After 9/11, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei condemned the attacks and, in a stark contrast to the scenes of jubilation observed in some Middle Eastern cities, Tehran publicly mourned the attacks. In 1998, the Taliban killed 11 Iranian diplomats in Mazar-i-Sharif and on the eve of 9/11 Iran was already conducting a proxy war against the Taliban through material support of the Northern Alliance. Iran shares many cultural and linguistic similarities with various ethnic groups in Afghanistan...

Trump Can't End the War in Afghanistan Without Iran

During his bid for the U.S. presidency, Donald Trump all but ignored the war in Afghanistan. He did, however, pledge to reduce the footprint of U.S. intervention abroad, end nation-building, and most notably rip up the Iran deal. Yet these policies are incongruent because the U.S. simply cannot leave Afghanistan as a functioning state without the help of Iran. The refusal of U.S. policymakers to accept this reality is one reason the war against the Taliban has lasted 15 years and Afghanistan remains effectively partitioned between Kabul and the militants. While Afghanistan has six immediate neighbors, its two most relevant borders are with Pakistan and Iran. Both borders remain porous and useful to the Taliban, with arms and militants moving in and out of Pakistan, and opium moving through Iran. The curtailment of the opium trade and therefore the Taliban’s cash flow was a key component of President Barack Obama’s 2009 surge to retake Afghanistan. Elite Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) Foreign-Deployed Advisory and Support Teams (FAST) worked with special forces in southwest Afghanistan to destroy the opium labs and disrupt the flow out of the country. Although difficult to verify, it appears unlikely that the U.S. and Iran effectively coordinated in drug interdiction. Meanwhile Iran serves as the escape hatch through which Afghanistan supplies around 90 percent of the world’s opium. Despite historical animosity, Iran and the United State would have made natural allies in Afghanistan. After 9/11, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei condemned the attacks and, in a stark contrast to the scenes of jubilation observed in some Middle Eastern cities, Tehran publicly mourned the attacks. In 1998, the Taliban killed 11 Iranian diplomats in Mazar-i-Sharif and on the eve of 9/11 Iran was already conducting a proxy war against the Taliban through material support of the Northern Alliance. Iran shares many cultural and linguistic similarities with various ethnic groups in Afghanistan...

Afghan Taliban Consider Options On Resuming Talks

The Afghan Taliban have been involved in ‘intense discussions’ on the crafting of a strategy for the possible resumption of peace negotiations, a member of the Taliban political office in Qatar said on Wednesday. Speaking by Skype, the Taliban negotiator said the leadership has also taken field commanders into confidence about the expected political process in a clear sign that the group is looking for a consensus view. “We are now exploring the options for talks with foreign stakeholders, as well as with the Afghan side,” the Taliban leader told The Express Tribune in an interview from Qatar. He was speaking on the condition that he would not be identified by name. “It will be a national level decision. The consultation process was strong. The Taliban military commanders, who had not been on-board earlier, have also been taken into confidence. I would say the consultation process was initiated at the grassroots level this time,” he said. He rejected the notion that the Taliban want a military solution to the Afghan problem. “We want a non-military solution,” he added. He condemned President Ashraf Ghani’s recent move to seek UN sanctions on Taliban chief Maulvi Haibatullah and said any such act could undermine the on-going efforts for talks. “We think that the Kabul administration’s efforts are aimed at creating hurdles in the way of peace. We view such acts as anti-peace. It seems the government leaders do not show sincerity in the political process,” he said. When asked if the talks would be held in Qatar, he said other countries could also host talks but the centre would remain the Qatar office, which is still closed. Responding to a question, he said the Taliban could accept the guarantee of Russia, China and other countries. The Taliban leader welcomed the growing Russian role in the Afghan peace process and said the Taliban view Moscow’s efforts as “positive.” He said the Taliban did not attend the Pugwash conference in Islamabad because they were not...

Rise of IS

MONDAY’S appalling suicide attack on a Shia mosque in the heart of Kabul highlights the bloody, expanding footprint of the militant Islamic State group in Afghanistan. Despite President Ashraf Ghani’s frequent assertions that IS poses no significant threat to the Afghans, the group is spreading its tentacles from Nangarhar province to the nation’s fortified capital and beyond. Over 30 civilians, including children, were killed and scores wounded in the bombing of the Baqir ul-Uloom mosque in the Darul Aman area — the third devastating assault on the Shia community since July. The two previous strikes had also been claimed by the militant Sunni group, which is intent on striking fear in people’s hearts through large-scale massacres. IS-perpetrated terror has sparked grave concerns and outrage in the minority sect, which has good reason to criticise the government and its US allies for being unable to prevent a recurrence of terrorist acts against it. Such incidents have contributed to stoking tribal and factional rivalries in a country once known for sectarian harmony. In July, IS bragged about targeting Hazara protesters in Kabul. At least 80 people were killed in the suicide bombing. The Shia community, constituting 10-15pc of Afghanistan’s population, has long complained of discrimination, killings and kidnappings. Thousands of Hazara people were killed or brutally tortured during the Afghan Taliban’s rule. Both in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Hazaras have been a prime target of the Taliban, Lashkar-i-Jhangvi and IS. IS has shaken Kabul, which can hardly cope with the situation. IS operations in Nangarhar, Kabul, Balkh and Zabul provinces have shaken an administration that can hardly cope with the challenges before it, notably the security situation. Every time the president touts his government’s security gains, both the Taliban and IS return with greater vengeance. And that’s why the presidential assertions are no longer taken seriously by cynical civilians,...

Pakistan Counters ISIL’s Strategy of Buying Militant Loyalty

Pakistan is foiling attempts by the "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" (ISIL) to fund key terrorist leaders and elements aiming to promote extremism and militancy in the country, security analysts tell Pakistan Forward. "ISIL is offering millions of rupees to key leaders of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant groups in the country in an attempt to develop its foothold in the region and carry out its agenda of bloodshed", a senior security official told Pakistan Forward. ISIL leaders in Afghanistan are approaching leaders of banned Pakistani militant outfits and are offering them large amounts of money as a way to gain their support, the official said on condition of anonymity. Knowing this, security organisations have further tightened the noose around banned militant outfits and enhanced their vigilance to thwart ISIL's ambition of penetrating Pakistan, he said. "Security agencies have arrested dozens of ISIL-affiliated militants in Pakistan this year who have confessed to interrogators about ISIL's strategy of offering funding to militants in Pakistan to lure them into ISIL's ... global terrorist network", he said. All security organisations and intelligence agencies are co-ordinating with each other and sharing information to ensure that ISIL does not succeed in establishing a network in Pakistan, he said. "We have heard about offers of financing by ISIL to militant groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan, including TTP," Peshawar-based senior security analyst Brig. (ret.) Mehmood Shah told Pakistan Forward. Uzbek militants and some TTP leaders based in Afghanistan have already announced allegiance to ISIL in exchange for money as they faced financial problems after the Pakistani army's Operation Zarb-e-Azb and targeted operations in Karachi and other parts of the country, Shah said. The army launched Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan in June 2014. The offensive continues today. ISIL has failed so far to establish a presence in Pakistan because of...

Pakistan Counters ISIL's Strategy of Buying Militant Loyalty

Pakistan is foiling attempts by the "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" (ISIL) to fund key terrorist leaders and elements aiming to promote extremism and militancy in the country, security analysts tell Pakistan Forward. "ISIL is offering millions of rupees to key leaders of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant groups in the country in an attempt to develop its foothold in the region and carry out its agenda of bloodshed", a senior security official told Pakistan Forward. ISIL leaders in Afghanistan are approaching leaders of banned Pakistani militant outfits and are offering them large amounts of money as a way to gain their support, the official said on condition of anonymity. Knowing this, security organisations have further tightened the noose around banned militant outfits and enhanced their vigilance to thwart ISIL's ambition of penetrating Pakistan, he said. "Security agencies have arrested dozens of ISIL-affiliated militants in Pakistan this year who have confessed to interrogators about ISIL's strategy of offering funding to militants in Pakistan to lure them into ISIL's ... global terrorist network", he said. All security organisations and intelligence agencies are co-ordinating with each other and sharing information to ensure that ISIL does not succeed in establishing a network in Pakistan, he said. "We have heard about offers of financing by ISIL to militant groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan, including TTP," Peshawar-based senior security analyst Brig. (ret.) Mehmood Shah told Pakistan Forward. Uzbek militants and some TTP leaders based in Afghanistan have already announced allegiance to ISIL in exchange for money as they faced financial problems after the Pakistani army's Operation Zarb-e-Azb and targeted operations in Karachi and other parts of the country, Shah said. The army launched Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan in June 2014. The offensive continues today. ISIL has failed so far to establish a presence in Pakistan because of...

HRW Calls for ‘Security Plan’ To Protect Afghanistan’s Shi’a

An international rights group has urged the Afghan government to develop a "security plan" to better protect the minority Shi'a community during high-profile public events. Human Rights Watch (HRW) made the call in a statement on November 21, a day after a suicide bomber killed at least 30 worshipers at a Shi'ite mosque in Kabul during the observance of a religious ceremony. Militants affiliated with the extremist Islamic State (IS) group claimed responsibility for the attack -- their fourth on gatherings by Afghanistan’s Shi'a community since July, according to HRW. The New York-based group also said that sectarian suicide attacks have injured or killed more than 500 Shi'a in Afghanistan since July. The IS group has "stepped up its horrific and unlawful attacks" on Shi'ite public gatherings, "making no place safe," HRW researcher Patricia Gossman said. "The government, Shi'a leaders, and civil society groups should work together to develop appropriate ways to improve security during vulnerable public and religious gatherings [...] so that Shi'a community members can exercise their basic rights," she added. This article originally appeared on www.rferl.org, 24 November, 2016. Original link. Disclaimer: Views expressed in the article are not necessarily supported by CRSS.

HRW Calls for 'Security Plan' To Protect Afghanistan's Shi'a

An international rights group has urged the Afghan government to develop a "security plan" to better protect the minority Shi'a community during high-profile public events. Human Rights Watch (HRW) made the call in a statement on November 21, a day after a suicide bomber killed at least 30 worshipers at a Shi'ite mosque in Kabul during the observance of a religious ceremony. Militants affiliated with the extremist Islamic State (IS) group claimed responsibility for the attack -- their fourth on gatherings by Afghanistan’s Shi'a community since July, according to HRW. The New York-based group also said that sectarian suicide attacks have injured or killed more than 500 Shi'a in Afghanistan since July. The IS group has "stepped up its horrific and unlawful attacks" on Shi'ite public gatherings, "making no place safe," HRW researcher Patricia Gossman said. "The government, Shi'a leaders, and civil society groups should work together to develop appropriate ways to improve security during vulnerable public and religious gatherings [...] so that Shi'a community members can exercise their basic rights," she added. This article originally appeared on www.rferl.org, 24 November, 2016. Original link. Disclaimer: Views expressed in the article are not necessarily supported by CRSS.

India Speeds Up Rebuilding Activity in Afghanistan

India has stepped up rebuilding activity in Afghanistan in line with its commitment to propel the wartorn nation back on the development track. The move comes just days ahead of a mega multilateral meet that the Narendra Modi government is hosting in Amritsar to contribute to Afghan stability. Ahead of the December 4 Heart of Asia Conference on Afghanistan, India has come forward to restart a factory in Mazar-e-Sharif, build a runway at Balkh airport and assist the Afghan government in harnessing the economic potential of Salma Dam, which was built with India’s assistance. A tiles factory in Afghanistan’s northern Mazar-e-Sharif city will resume production soon with India’s support, said people familiar with the development India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan Manpreet Vohra recently met Balkh province governor Atta Mohammad Noor to finalise the project. Noor, who had helped thwart a terror attack on the Indian consulate in Mazar earlier this year, is a strong proponent of Afghanistan-India ties. India is also constructing the main approach way to the Balkh or Mazar-e-Sharif international airport. The airport has facilities for up to 1,000 passengers, making it one of the largest airports in Afghanistan. Originally built by the Soviets in 1950s, the new international terminal was inaugurated in 2013. Delhi has also come forward in boosting agro-related industry in the landlocked nation. Kabul recently launched fish farming in the mega Salam Dam in western Herat province which was built with financial support from India. The Salma Dam project was inaugurated by Modi and President Ashraf Ghani when the Indian PM visited Herat en route to Qatar, Europe and the US. The dam, with a 640-million cubic metre reservoir, is expected to produce 42 MW electricit, which can help irrigate about 80 hectares of land. India has played a big role in rebuilding Afghanistan following the fall of Taliban regime in 2001. Since 2002, India has committed $2 bn for the socio-economic...

The Sharif Exit

No body knows what transpired behind the scenes until November 21, when the ISPR officially gave away General Raheel Sharif’s address to a gathering of Army and Rangers personnel as a “farewell call.”This ended the suspense around the General’s future. All this ensured despite his announcement back in January in which he had declared not to seek any extension. With General Sharif’s honourable exit, Pakistan achieves another milestone; within eight years, full democratic transition and a smooth security leadership transition. General Sharif appeared as an untiring soldier switching between the GHQ, visits to border and trouble spots such as Karachi and Quetta. He seemed to have taken the December 16, 2015 attack on the Army Public School as a personal tragedy and an institutional challenge. The National Action Plan and his rigorous perusal of national and provincial apex committees stemmed from his resolve to take on terrorists disguised as Islamists. He built on the string of operations — Bajaur in August 2007, Swat and South Waziristan (May/October 2009 respectively), under General Kayani. The latter turned the Pakistan Army into a hardened counter-terror and counter-insurgency force, while General Sharif took this operational capability to new levels with the Operation Zarb-e-Azb. This won him appreciation all over the globe. In this perusal, though, the General at times intruded into the foreign affairs domain, causing discomfort within the civilian power corridors. This overstepping often flowed from indecision or inaction by the civilians when it came to dealing with challenges on the eastern and western borders and provided reasons for discord with the civilian leadership. Largely, the General’s departure is socio-politically significant. Firstly, an uncontroversial change of the COAS-baton, underscores the growing maturity of the Pakistani society with all stakeholders exercising restraint and mindful of the hazards of unilateral decision-making. National...