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Akhundzada’s Challenges Bigger than his Predecessor

Taliban chief Hibatullah Akhundzada faces multiple internal and external challenges; internally, his movement is marred by differences and rebellion by smaller factions. The rebuttal of Taliban talks with the Afghan government and then its senior members’ private confirmation does show the desperate state of affairs inside the movement. Firstly, some of the Taliban senior leaders are opposing the idea of talks with Kabul as they dub the Afghan government as a US puppet. According to them, such a move could negatively affect the morale of their foot soldiers who are fighting against the government in Kabul. The Taliban breakaway faction, Mullah Rasool group, is opposing the talks openly and any move of negotiations with Kabul could push the disgruntled members of Taliban toward him. The Rasool’s group does not the government in Kabul and has been opposing the current Taliban leaders for differences with them since the days of Mullah Akhtar Mansoor to whom it never pledged allegiance and opposed his selection as the Taliban Chief. Several Taliban commanders including Manan Khan Niazi were angry with Mansoor for concealing Omar’s death and issuing statements for two years in his name.[1] They finally gathered and appointed Rasool as their Chief. Rasool was later on reportedly arrested in Pakistan.[2] Secondly, Akhundzada’s fighters are literally unable to hold to a territory for longer periods of time because of the lethal US air force. Thirdly, Taliban sources said that some of their leaders are war-fatigued and would like to find a way out of conflict the way Hezb-e-Islami’s Hekmetyar did. The loss of local support base probably is another big challenge. Regional dynamics is also in play right now; China and Pakistan, too, are eager to realize the dream of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that will not be possible if militancy continues in Afghanistan. Iran, too, is eager to expand its economic linkages through Pakistan to China and India. All this is...

Sindh Assembly Passes Bill Against Forced Religious Conversions

Sindh Assembly unanimously passed on Thursday a law against forced conversion of religion in the province. A private bill, Criminal Law (Protection of Minorities), was tabled by Pakistan Muslim League – Functional (PML-F) lawmaker Nand Kumar a year ago. It was referred to the standing committee for minority and human rights for feedback and has now been returned to the assembly. Sindh is the first assembly in Pakistan to pass the law. “Forced conversion is an abhorrent and violent offence and an issue that has become prevalent across Sindh [that] must be eliminated by recognising the importance of tolerance, peace and respect for all religions and persons, irrespective of their religion,” the bill read. The law will focus on recognising the right to freedom of religion of all persons, the right to freedom to marry and freedom of choice of marriage of all persons. Age of conversion According to the bill, no person shall be deemed to have changed their religion until they attain the age of maturity, which is 18 years. Similarly, the decision of a minor to convert to another religion will not be recognised until they reach the age of maturity. Defining the punishments for forced conversion, the bill states that any person who forcibly converts another person shall be liable to imprisonment ranging from five years to life and a fine will have to be paid to the victim. Whoever performs or facilitates a marriage while having knowledge that either one or both the parties are victims of forced conversion shall be liable to imprisonment for a minimum of three years or a fine to be paid to the victim or victims. “This shall also include any persons who have provided logistical support or any other essential services for the marriage ceremony,” states the law. It adds that in a case of forced conversion, the accused shall also be liable for other offences, including kidnapping, abduction or compelling a woman for marriage. Complaint mechanism Regarding the mechanism of...

Discussing Afghanistan

The power structures we have come to expect to dominate South Asia are slowly being replaced. The disaster that is the US war in Afghanistan means fewer countries trust it or expect it to deliver stability. The election of Narendra Modi in India has made it all but impossible for Pakistan to maintain good relations with its Eastern neighbour. China, thanks to the CPEC, has made a bold bid to be the primary political player in the region. And now Russia is trying to make its influence felt in the region too. The country that was humiliatingly forced to withdraw from Afghanistan in 1989 is now trying to have its voice heard in planning for the conflict-ridden country’s future. Moscow will be holding a conference, along with Pakistan and China, in December to discuss the situation in Afghanistan and what can be done about it. The meeting will be held the same month as the Heart of Asia conference in India, which is also concerned with peace and stability in Afghanistan. Russia is clearly hoping to dislodge Indian hegemony in South Asia by overtly supporting its neighbours and becoming more involved in regional issues. The opening to do so is certainly there since both Heart of Asia and the US-led Quadrilateral Crisis Group have failed to achieve any diplomatic breakthroughs in Afghanistan. Russia has made other moves recently showing it is ready to pursue a closer alliance with Pakistan. At the Brics summit in India, Russia and China were at the forefront of moves to block India from adopting a resolution denouncing Pakistan as a terrorist state. Russia also carried out joint military exercises with Pakistan, a clear thumb in the eye for India, which has traditionally been a Russian ally. The US, meanwhile, has drifted every closer to India and at the UN General Assembly meeting in September it even held a trilateral meeting with India and Afghanistan without inviting Pakistan. Such moves have led us to Moscow. Of course, Russia has close to zero influence in...

Trump Can't End the War in Afghanistan Without Iran

During his bid for the U.S. presidency, Donald Trump all but ignored the war in Afghanistan. He did, however, pledge to reduce the footprint of U.S. intervention abroad, end nation-building, and most notably rip up the Iran deal. Yet these policies are incongruent because the U.S. simply cannot leave Afghanistan as a functioning state without the help of Iran. The refusal of U.S. policymakers to accept this reality is one reason the war against the Taliban has lasted 15 years and Afghanistan remains effectively partitioned between Kabul and the militants. While Afghanistan has six immediate neighbors, its two most relevant borders are with Pakistan and Iran. Both borders remain porous and useful to the Taliban, with arms and militants moving in and out of Pakistan, and opium moving through Iran. The curtailment of the opium trade and therefore the Taliban’s cash flow was a key component of President Barack Obama’s 2009 surge to retake Afghanistan. Elite Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) Foreign-Deployed Advisory and Support Teams (FAST) worked with special forces in southwest Afghanistan to destroy the opium labs and disrupt the flow out of the country. Although difficult to verify, it appears unlikely that the U.S. and Iran effectively coordinated in drug interdiction. Meanwhile Iran serves as the escape hatch through which Afghanistan supplies around 90 percent of the world’s opium. Despite historical animosity, Iran and the United State would have made natural allies in Afghanistan. After 9/11, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei condemned the attacks and, in a stark contrast to the scenes of jubilation observed in some Middle Eastern cities, Tehran publicly mourned the attacks. In 1998, the Taliban killed 11 Iranian diplomats in Mazar-i-Sharif and on the eve of 9/11 Iran was already conducting a proxy war against the Taliban through material support of the Northern Alliance. Iran shares many cultural and linguistic similarities with various ethnic groups in Afghanistan...

Trump Can’t End the War in Afghanistan Without Iran

During his bid for the U.S. presidency, Donald Trump all but ignored the war in Afghanistan. He did, however, pledge to reduce the footprint of U.S. intervention abroad, end nation-building, and most notably rip up the Iran deal. Yet these policies are incongruent because the U.S. simply cannot leave Afghanistan as a functioning state without the help of Iran. The refusal of U.S. policymakers to accept this reality is one reason the war against the Taliban has lasted 15 years and Afghanistan remains effectively partitioned between Kabul and the militants. While Afghanistan has six immediate neighbors, its two most relevant borders are with Pakistan and Iran. Both borders remain porous and useful to the Taliban, with arms and militants moving in and out of Pakistan, and opium moving through Iran. The curtailment of the opium trade and therefore the Taliban’s cash flow was a key component of President Barack Obama’s 2009 surge to retake Afghanistan. Elite Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) Foreign-Deployed Advisory and Support Teams (FAST) worked with special forces in southwest Afghanistan to destroy the opium labs and disrupt the flow out of the country. Although difficult to verify, it appears unlikely that the U.S. and Iran effectively coordinated in drug interdiction. Meanwhile Iran serves as the escape hatch through which Afghanistan supplies around 90 percent of the world’s opium. Despite historical animosity, Iran and the United State would have made natural allies in Afghanistan. After 9/11, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei condemned the attacks and, in a stark contrast to the scenes of jubilation observed in some Middle Eastern cities, Tehran publicly mourned the attacks. In 1998, the Taliban killed 11 Iranian diplomats in Mazar-i-Sharif and on the eve of 9/11 Iran was already conducting a proxy war against the Taliban through material support of the Northern Alliance. Iran shares many cultural and linguistic similarities with various ethnic groups in Afghanistan...

Afghan Taliban Consider Options On Resuming Talks

The Afghan Taliban have been involved in ‘intense discussions’ on the crafting of a strategy for the possible resumption of peace negotiations, a member of the Taliban political office in Qatar said on Wednesday. Speaking by Skype, the Taliban negotiator said the leadership has also taken field commanders into confidence about the expected political process in a clear sign that the group is looking for a consensus view. “We are now exploring the options for talks with foreign stakeholders, as well as with the Afghan side,” the Taliban leader told The Express Tribune in an interview from Qatar. He was speaking on the condition that he would not be identified by name. “It will be a national level decision. The consultation process was strong. The Taliban military commanders, who had not been on-board earlier, have also been taken into confidence. I would say the consultation process was initiated at the grassroots level this time,” he said. He rejected the notion that the Taliban want a military solution to the Afghan problem. “We want a non-military solution,” he added. He condemned President Ashraf Ghani’s recent move to seek UN sanctions on Taliban chief Maulvi Haibatullah and said any such act could undermine the on-going efforts for talks. “We think that the Kabul administration’s efforts are aimed at creating hurdles in the way of peace. We view such acts as anti-peace. It seems the government leaders do not show sincerity in the political process,” he said. When asked if the talks would be held in Qatar, he said other countries could also host talks but the centre would remain the Qatar office, which is still closed. Responding to a question, he said the Taliban could accept the guarantee of Russia, China and other countries. The Taliban leader welcomed the growing Russian role in the Afghan peace process and said the Taliban view Moscow’s efforts as “positive.” He said the Taliban did not attend the Pugwash conference in Islamabad because they were not...

Rise of IS

MONDAY’S appalling suicide attack on a Shia mosque in the heart of Kabul highlights the bloody, expanding footprint of the militant Islamic State group in Afghanistan. Despite President Ashraf Ghani’s frequent assertions that IS poses no significant threat to the Afghans, the group is spreading its tentacles from Nangarhar province to the nation’s fortified capital and beyond. Over 30 civilians, including children, were killed and scores wounded in the bombing of the Baqir ul-Uloom mosque in the Darul Aman area — the third devastating assault on the Shia community since July. The two previous strikes had also been claimed by the militant Sunni group, which is intent on striking fear in people’s hearts through large-scale massacres. IS-perpetrated terror has sparked grave concerns and outrage in the minority sect, which has good reason to criticise the government and its US allies for being unable to prevent a recurrence of terrorist acts against it. Such incidents have contributed to stoking tribal and factional rivalries in a country once known for sectarian harmony. In July, IS bragged about targeting Hazara protesters in Kabul. At least 80 people were killed in the suicide bombing. The Shia community, constituting 10-15pc of Afghanistan’s population, has long complained of discrimination, killings and kidnappings. Thousands of Hazara people were killed or brutally tortured during the Afghan Taliban’s rule. Both in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Hazaras have been a prime target of the Taliban, Lashkar-i-Jhangvi and IS. IS has shaken Kabul, which can hardly cope with the situation. IS operations in Nangarhar, Kabul, Balkh and Zabul provinces have shaken an administration that can hardly cope with the challenges before it, notably the security situation. Every time the president touts his government’s security gains, both the Taliban and IS return with greater vengeance. And that’s why the presidential assertions are no longer taken seriously by cynical civilians,...

Pakistan Counters ISIL's Strategy of Buying Militant Loyalty

Pakistan is foiling attempts by the "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" (ISIL) to fund key terrorist leaders and elements aiming to promote extremism and militancy in the country, security analysts tell Pakistan Forward. "ISIL is offering millions of rupees to key leaders of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant groups in the country in an attempt to develop its foothold in the region and carry out its agenda of bloodshed", a senior security official told Pakistan Forward. ISIL leaders in Afghanistan are approaching leaders of banned Pakistani militant outfits and are offering them large amounts of money as a way to gain their support, the official said on condition of anonymity. Knowing this, security organisations have further tightened the noose around banned militant outfits and enhanced their vigilance to thwart ISIL's ambition of penetrating Pakistan, he said. "Security agencies have arrested dozens of ISIL-affiliated militants in Pakistan this year who have confessed to interrogators about ISIL's strategy of offering funding to militants in Pakistan to lure them into ISIL's ... global terrorist network", he said. All security organisations and intelligence agencies are co-ordinating with each other and sharing information to ensure that ISIL does not succeed in establishing a network in Pakistan, he said. "We have heard about offers of financing by ISIL to militant groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan, including TTP," Peshawar-based senior security analyst Brig. (ret.) Mehmood Shah told Pakistan Forward. Uzbek militants and some TTP leaders based in Afghanistan have already announced allegiance to ISIL in exchange for money as they faced financial problems after the Pakistani army's Operation Zarb-e-Azb and targeted operations in Karachi and other parts of the country, Shah said. The army launched Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan in June 2014. The offensive continues today. ISIL has failed so far to establish a presence in Pakistan because of...

Pakistan Counters ISIL’s Strategy of Buying Militant Loyalty

Pakistan is foiling attempts by the "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" (ISIL) to fund key terrorist leaders and elements aiming to promote extremism and militancy in the country, security analysts tell Pakistan Forward. "ISIL is offering millions of rupees to key leaders of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant groups in the country in an attempt to develop its foothold in the region and carry out its agenda of bloodshed", a senior security official told Pakistan Forward. ISIL leaders in Afghanistan are approaching leaders of banned Pakistani militant outfits and are offering them large amounts of money as a way to gain their support, the official said on condition of anonymity. Knowing this, security organisations have further tightened the noose around banned militant outfits and enhanced their vigilance to thwart ISIL's ambition of penetrating Pakistan, he said. "Security agencies have arrested dozens of ISIL-affiliated militants in Pakistan this year who have confessed to interrogators about ISIL's strategy of offering funding to militants in Pakistan to lure them into ISIL's ... global terrorist network", he said. All security organisations and intelligence agencies are co-ordinating with each other and sharing information to ensure that ISIL does not succeed in establishing a network in Pakistan, he said. "We have heard about offers of financing by ISIL to militant groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan, including TTP," Peshawar-based senior security analyst Brig. (ret.) Mehmood Shah told Pakistan Forward. Uzbek militants and some TTP leaders based in Afghanistan have already announced allegiance to ISIL in exchange for money as they faced financial problems after the Pakistani army's Operation Zarb-e-Azb and targeted operations in Karachi and other parts of the country, Shah said. The army launched Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan in June 2014. The offensive continues today. ISIL has failed so far to establish a presence in Pakistan because of...

HRW Calls for 'Security Plan' To Protect Afghanistan's Shi'a

An international rights group has urged the Afghan government to develop a "security plan" to better protect the minority Shi'a community during high-profile public events. Human Rights Watch (HRW) made the call in a statement on November 21, a day after a suicide bomber killed at least 30 worshipers at a Shi'ite mosque in Kabul during the observance of a religious ceremony. Militants affiliated with the extremist Islamic State (IS) group claimed responsibility for the attack -- their fourth on gatherings by Afghanistan’s Shi'a community since July, according to HRW. The New York-based group also said that sectarian suicide attacks have injured or killed more than 500 Shi'a in Afghanistan since July. The IS group has "stepped up its horrific and unlawful attacks" on Shi'ite public gatherings, "making no place safe," HRW researcher Patricia Gossman said. "The government, Shi'a leaders, and civil society groups should work together to develop appropriate ways to improve security during vulnerable public and religious gatherings [...] so that Shi'a community members can exercise their basic rights," she added. This article originally appeared on www.rferl.org, 24 November, 2016. Original link. Disclaimer: Views expressed in the article are not necessarily supported by CRSS.