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Will Demonetisation Take Modi Down?
The ill-advised banishing of two critical currency notes by Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to have incurred everyone’s wrath in India but his diehard supporters won’t relent. That and a perpetually divided opposition are a good hint that he will sail through the current crisis too, if it is that, possibly even turning adversity into a careening goal. In most other countries, the head of government would have been forced to go for inflicting the mess that has been let loose on the Indian economy. Modi’s abrupt withdrawal of the 500 and 1,000-rupee notes from November 8 midnight sent people begging to the banks for loose change, but that too is in short supply. A few have passed away waiting in endless queues to change old notes with those that work. Banks and ATMs seem ill-equipped for the task, and riot police have been guarding the outlets against irate mobs. Those who succeed in getting hold of a new 2,000-rupee note or even the new 500-rupee one can’t use it for want of change. Goalposts have shifted about the purpose of the so-called demonetisation. It was first advertised as the surest way to end corruption and terrorism. Now we hear the idea is to turn India into a cashless economy. The latter may be the least damaging afterthought, but it is not bereft of controversy. Mr Modi featured in full-page ads for a high-speed mobile phone launched by the Reliance Group of Mukesh Ambani. How could the prime minister openly support a corporate house, giving it an edge over others? The chaos that has followed India’s decommissioning of 500- and 1,000-rupee notes is the first big setback for the BJP The ad did not go down well with Mr Ambani’s business rivals. Reports say the Reliance Group is to be fined all of 500 rupees for the apparent breach of protocol. The morning after Mr Modi destroyed the currency notes, full-page ads were sponsored by a recently launched electronic wallet outfit, which lauded the prime minister’s decision. Smart phones and electronic...
Afghan Weekly (Dec 02 – Dec 09, 2016)
Following the one-day Heart of Asia ministerial conference in Amritsar, India, on December 04, 2016, 14 countries in the region adopted a declaration and called for an immediate end to all forms of terrorism and to the financing of the problem in Afghanistan. Despite the tensions with India at the Line of Control (LoC), Pakistan attended the conference, reaffirming that Pakistan was against all forms and manifestations of terrorism and a regional and collective approach was required to overcome this menace.[1] On the other hand, in a speech on the US approach to counterterrorism, President Obama stated that “War has been a part of life in Afghanistan for over 30 years, and the United States cannot eliminate the Taliban or end violence in that country.[2] However, he said “But what we can do is deny al Qaeda a safe haven, and what we can do is support Afghans who want a better future, which is why we have worked not only with their military, but we’ve backed a unity government in Kabul.” A New York Times story this week also reported that the Taliban militants have been receiving financial support from the Saudis as the insurgency led by the group has entered its 15th year with the group intensifying attacks since the Afghan forces took full security lead last year.[3] More updates on the security, internal politics, international engagements and socio-economic developments in Afghanistan from the past week follow below. Security Overview Some seminaries in southern Ghazni are training armed militants, the governor alleged – a claim vehemently rejected by the insurgents.[4] Nine Insurgents were killed in a joint Afghan military operation in northern Kunduz province while eight other insurgents were injured on December 04.[5] US drone strike killed 2 ISIS militants in eastern Nangarhar province of Afghanistan on December 04.[6] A prominent leader of the loyalists of ISIS was killed during a clash with the security forces in northern Jawzjan province of...
Sabawoon Showcase: Exclusive Show with Ms. Margaret Adamson, Australian High Commissioner to Pakistan, on Female Rights
The latest episode of Sabawoon, flagship radio program of Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), focused on the women’s rights, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Our special guest for the program was Her Excellency Margaret Adamson, the Australian High Commissioner (AHC) in Pakistan. The key discussion points included women rights, problems faced by women in KP and FATA, importance of education and freedom for women, male predominance in society, role of women in economic development and prosperity, women protection and safety, hurdles faced by females due to internal displacement as a result of security operations, and inclusion of women in decision making and legislation. Moreover, the program also highlighted the steps taken by the AHC to promote gender equality, eliminate violence against women, and the launch of a toll free number to report domestic violence against women with the support of Australian government. The program was aired under the theme of “Ranra” (light) on Thursday. In adition to the AHC, Ms. Nosheen Orakzai, representative of Takra Qabaili Khwendee (Capable Tribals Sisters) Peshawar, and THIRD GUEST, participated in the show as the studio guests. Her excellency Ms. Margaret Adamson, Australian High Commissioner to Pakistan, said: “In collaboration with the KP government and a civil society organization, we have launched the helpline no. 0800-2227. This helpline is a platform for the people of KP to report and register the cases of domestic violence against women. Necessary help will be provided on timely basis both for emergency and routine cases. The helpline is initially launched in seven districts of KP but in the second phase it will be extended to the whole province.” Her excellency added, “Education is fundamental for every person in society. But female education is key for a prosperous, productive, and harmonious society. For the development and economic prosperity of a...
Need for new Afghan policy
Owing to chequered relations with Afghanistan, Pakistan could never develop a comprehensive Afghan policy. A common perception ran through all governments from 1947 to 1979 that erratic relations could be managed. Firstly, Afghanistan was not considered strong enough to pose any serious threat to Pakistan. Secondly, Indian influence in Kabul was not as lethal as today. Thirdly, Pakistan had the US backing during the Cold War era. Pakistan’s responses to crisis in the relationship, in general, remained casual and reactive, mostly preserving legitimacy of the Durand Line. The Soviet intervention in 1979 awakened the government in Islamabad to realize its folly. Pakistan saw the “buffer” disappearing and a super power assuming the status of a “near neighbor”. Potential challenges were grave. All apprehensions of the “cold bear” reaching warm waters of the Indian Ocean started looking real. It was feared that India under the Indo- Soviet Treaty of 1971 might stir up trouble at the western border to weaken Pakistan watch at its Eastern frontier. This entirely new situation warranted a rethink and resetting of the half-baked Afghan policy to exploit Pakistan’s strategic locational advantage. Large cache of literature exists to explain how and why Pakistan chose to become a front state and an ally of the US against the Soviets. And how in following years till now Afghanistan bled and those who basked in defeating Communists suffered. Their woeful bloody torment never abated, though the Geneva Accord was signed on April 14, 1988. During this turbulent time Pakistan made use of intelligence information, technical assistance, training facilities offered, high tech surveillance equipment received and information exchanged with key allies including US, China, Saudi Arabia, UK etc. to evolve a little more consistent Afghan policy. The salient feature of this embryonic policy, nevertheless, corresponded to Pakistan’s need for stable friendly relations with the government in...
Why has Afghanistan fallen into the abyss?
October 7, this year, marked 15 years of US invasion of Afghanistan and its - still ongoing - war on terror post 9/11 attacks. With little, or no, progress over the years, the situation on ground in Afghanistan remains bleak in terms of security and economy. And with the international media losing its interest in the country and its situation, Afghanistan has fallen into an abyss of insecurity, uncertainty and, above all, chronic corruption. SIGAR (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction), in its recently published report on ‘Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan’, draws important lessons from the US expenditure and its failures in Afghanistan since 2001. According to this report, unlike common perception, corruption is not only confined to Afghan ruling elite and institutions, but is widespread among the US and European contractors as well. It was further revealed by SIGAR that the corruption was primarily fuelled by influx of billions of US dollars whose oversight was not only faulty, but also dubious. Even after acknowledging - year in year out – that corruption was the biggest problem haunting Afghanistan, political and security goals set by the White House and US military always took the front, with corruption put on the back burner. Since 2001, Afghanistan has constantly remained between the 165th and 180th ranks on global index of corruption. The report further notes that “there is a general consensus that Afghan corruption has swelled to unprecedented levels since Zahir Shah’s overthrow in 1973—and especially after the Taliban regime’s rollback in 2001.” Source: SIGAR, Report 2016. It is a letdown that with such widespread corruption, directly affecting progress in Afghanistan, the US administration opted to ignore the grave nature of the situation. As one senior US official notes: “In a conflict environment, oversight is difficult, but our systems of accountability are also poor. So when you push large...
Blaming Pakistan Not to Solve Afghanistan’s Problems
Yet again Mr Ashraf Ghani, the erstwhile Afghan President, blamed Pakistan for his government’s sinking fortunes. Taking advantage of Indian support at the Heart of Asia conference in Amritsar, he declined Pakistan’s pledged US$500 million for development projects and then added that Afghanistan had suffered the highest number of casualties last year. He apparently blamed Pakistan for the military losses his army has been suffering this year also. To be exact, Mr Ashraf Ghani is ignoring the ground realities.According to one US think-tank’s recent report, the Afghan forces are “incapable of rolling back gains made by a resurgent Taliban over the past several months” without a larger US military presence in the country. Additionally, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, or SIGAR, in its quarterly report to the US Congress, stated: “Of the 407 districts within the 34 provinces, 258 districts were under government control (88 districts) or influence (170), 33 districts (in 16 provinces) were under insurgent control (8) or influence (25), and 116 districts were ‘contested.” The report was released on October 30, 2016. Meanwhile, the US Forces-Afghanistan, or USFOR-A, said this year that the Afghan government controls or influences 68.5% of the population (22 million) and controls 61.3% of Afghanistan’s territory (350,000 square kilometers), and the Taliban controls or influences 8.1% (2.8 million) and controls 8.7% of the ground (66,000 square kilometers). The remaining 28.5% of the population (7.3 million) and 22.7% of the land (183,000 square kilometers) is contested. The bad news for Mr Ghani is that several experts, including American analysts, believe that the USFOR-A’s report is rather optimistic; they think the Taliban control more areas in Afghanistan than were disclosed. Ghani’s allegations do not take account of the fact that the US officials have admitted that 5,500 Afghan security forces died in just 2015 and that was far more...
Ties Between Russia and The Taliban Worry Afghan, U.S. Officials
Afghan and American officials are increasingly worried that any deepening of ties between Russia and Taliban militants fighting to topple the government in Kabul could complicate an already precarious security situation. Russian officials have denied they provide aid to the insurgents, who are contesting large swathes of territory and inflicting heavy casualties, and say their limited contacts are aimed at bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table. Leaders in Kabul say Russian support for the Afghan Taliban appears to be mostly political so far. But a series of recent meetings they say has taken place in Moscow and Tajikistan has made Afghan intelligence and defence officials nervous about more direct support including weapons or funding. A senior Afghan security official called Russian support for the Taliban a "dangerous new trend", an analysis echoed by the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, General John Nicholson. He told reporters at a briefing in Washington last week that Russia had joined Iran and Pakistan as countries with a "malign influence" in Afghanistan, and said Moscow was lending legitimacy to the Taliban. Russia's ambassador to Kabul, Alexander Mantytskiy, told reporters on Thursday that his government's contacts with the insurgent group were aimed at ensuring the safety of Russian citizens and encouraging peace talks. "We do not have intensive contacts with the Taliban," he said through an interpreter, adding that Russia favored a negotiated peace in Afghanistan which could only happen by cultivating contacts with all players, including the Taliban. Mantytskiy expressed annoyance at persistant accusations of Russian collaboration with the Taliban, saying the statements by American and Afghan officials were an effort to distract attention from the worsening conflict. "They are trying to put the blame for their failures on our shoulders," he told Reuters. ANOTHER "GREAT GAME"? Afghanistan has long been the scene of international intrigue and...
Pak-Afghan Region Has Highest Concentration of Terrorists: US
The Pak-Afghan region has the highest concentration of terrorist groups in the world, warns Gen John W. Nicholson, the commander of US and Nato forces in Afghanistan. In an annual assessment of US military operations in Afghanistan this year, the general also took credit for rescuing former prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s son from a militant hideout in Afghanistan earlier this year and for killing the perpetrator of the Dec 16, 2014 terrorist attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar. At a recent news briefing at the Pentagon, Gen Nicholson said that there were 98 US-designated terrorist groups around the world and 20 of them were in the Pak-Afghan region. “This represents the highest concentration of terrorist groups anywhere in the world,” he added. Thirteen of these 20 groups were based in Afghanistan and seven in Pakistan. Gen Nicholson said that the groups operating in this region often “mix and converge”, which made them even more dangerous. “For example, Islamic State of Khorasan today is formed of members of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and even some former members of the Afghan Taliban,” he said. Throughout the year, US counter-terrorism (CT) forces focused on these groups, conducting over 350 operations against Al Qaeda and the militant Islamic State group in 2016 and dozens more against other groups. In these operations, US forces killed or captured nearly 50 leaders of AQIS (Al Qaeda Indian Subcontinent) leaders. Additionally, about 200 other members of Al Qaeda and the Al Qaeda Islamic State groups were killed or captured as well. “Our CT forces rescued the son of the former Pakistani prime minister Gilani in a raid against Al Qaeda in eastern Afghanistan… and killed five emirs of these 20 terrorist groups,” he said. “We killed Hamidullah, the emir of the Islamic Jihad Union, and Omar Khalifa, who is the Tariq Gidar Group emir.” The Tariq Gidar Group carried out the attack on the Army Public School,...
Education A ‘Beacon of Hope’ In Afghanistan
Education in Afghanistan has historically mirrored the ups and downs of the socio-political upheavals in the country. However, the Afghan people’s demand for quality education, their efforts to ensure greater access, and their belief in education as a transformative force has been unwavering, and is especially true today. In 2015, over 9.2 million students (39 percent female) attended schools, with local school shuras (community-led decision-making bodies) playing a key role in driving this nine-fold increase since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. Despite today’s deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, schools continue to serve as beacons of hope for Afghan people. In The Asia Foundation’s just-released 2016 Survey of Afghan People, newly opened schools for girls rank fourth in a list of 10 reasons why Afghan people think that their country is moving in the right direction. This reflects the public conviction that education positively changes the trajectory of children’s lives, expands their opportunities, and has the potential to enable them to find jobs and integrate into mainstream society in the future. Among the many benefits of education is the opportunity it affords for economic advancement. This is particularly relevant now as Afghanistan’s economy is further challenged. One of the top reasons people are pessimistic in Afghanistan is due to unemployment. Educationally marginalized Afghans tend to be further economically disadvantaged, as the survey results suggest. A positive correlation (stronger for Afghan women compared to men) exists between the respondent’s education and income level. Among Afghans who report having some level of formal schooling, 56.6 percent say they earn an income, compared to 35.2 percent of Afghans who stated they never attended formal school. Among Afghan women who report some level of formal education, 16.6 percent are employed, compared to those with no formal education of which 6.1 percent were employed. Similarly,...
62 Banned Groups Active In Sindh, Says Official Report
An official report authored by the Sindh home ministry has identified 62 banned religious or sectarian organisations active in the province, including the re-emergence of 35 such groups, it emerged on Wednesday. “We have identified 62 banned religious / sectarian organisations and have requested the Ministry of Interior (MoI) for more information [about them],” said the report that was shared with the apex committee in a recent meeting. It said the investigation revealed that 35 groups, which had gone into hibernation after being slapped with the ban by the federal government, had re-emerged. Most of those groups [12], said the report, re-emerged in Benazirabad, the native district of the co-chairman of the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party. Besides, six of them resurfaced in Sukkur, five in Mirpurkhas, three each in Hyderabad and Korangi, and two each in Karachi West, Sujawal and Tando Mohammad Khan. Officials said the government had included 602 persons in the IVth Schedule of the banned organisations in Sindh. According to anti-terrorism law, the federal government may list a person “as a proscribed person in the Fourth Schedule on an ex-parte basis”, if there are reasonable grounds to believe that, such person is concerned in terrorism [category A]; an activist, office-bearer or an associate of an organisation kept under observation or banned [category B]; and in any way concerned or suspected to be concerned with such organisation or affiliated with any group or organisation suspected to be involved in terrorism or sectarianism or acting on behalf of, or at the direction of, any person or organisation proscribed under the ATC Act [category C]. Most of such individuals [221] belonged to the banned Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), of whom 154 have been put under category A. The remaining persons belonging to other organisations are as under: Khudam-ul-Islam [four], Harkat-ul-Mujahideen [19], Mohajir Qaumi Movement-Haqiqi [three], Pakistan Sunni Tehrik [10],...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.