Current Projects
CHINA WATCH [DECEMBER 6- 13] ‘WARRIOR-4’ EXERCISE
The successful conclusion of counter-terrorism exercise between the special forces of China and Pakistan was the leading story of this week. Pakistan and China launched a web portal about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Chinese Commander of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Western Theatre, General Zhao Zongqi met the Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa at General Headquarters (GHQ) Rawalpindi. Pakistan Navy has established ‘Task Force-88’ (TF-88) for the seaward security of Gwadar port and protection of associated sea lanes. The second round of the negotiations of the second phase of China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was held on December 6-7 in Islamabad. Pakistan and China inked the third protocol to the Avoidance of Double Taxation Agreement. The Secretary General of Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazal (JUI-F), Ghafoor Haideri has urged the government to address the reservations of KP and Balochistan on CPEC. Warrior-4 Exercise: The two-month long Pakistan-China exercise ‘Warrior-4’ focused on high impact counter-terrorism operations both in rural and urban areas came to conclusion at the National Counter-Terrorism Center (NCTC) at Pabbi on Thursday. Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamnar Javed Bajwa visited NCTC to witness the concluding session of the exercise between the special forces of both the countries.[1] In his speech the COAS said that shared experiences had improved the counter-terror combat skills of both Chinese and Pakistani forces and had also integrated the armies of the two countries. Later the Chinese Military Commander praised the Pakistan Army for its highest standard of training and skills and said that it was an asset that China would continue to benefit from.[2] Though far lower in scale as compared to that of Pakistan, China also has witnessed terrorist activities in the western region of Xinijang. Against this backdrop, joint counter-terrorism exercises with Pakistani forces which have extensive experience in the...
ISKP’s Battle for Minds: What Are Its Main Messages and Who Do They Attract?
The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) uses propaganda to carve out new space in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s already crowded jihadi landscape. It uses popular media and promotes a distinct narrative of Salafi-jihadism tailored to local preferences and focused on specific themes. In the first part of this dispatch, AAN’s Borhan Osman analyses the propaganda messages ISKP uses to try to recruit Afghans. In the second part, he takes a closer look at the impact these messages have on their target audience. In its previous dispatches on ISKP, AAN focused on its emergence as an insurgent group and franchise of the Iraq/Syria-based ‘Islamic State’ (Daesh) in Afghanistan, as well as adjacent parts of Pakistan; why Nangarhar became the locus of the group; and the strength of its Kabul cell that claimed three major attacks (one of them targeting a western embassy’s private guards and two others on Shia gatherings in the capital). With this, we have characterised a new ‘sender’ – the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) – in Afghanistan’s war theatre (and the wider region to which the ISKP refers as “Khorasan” (1)). This war, importantly, is also a propaganda war. In this part of our series on the ISKP, we turn to its message and the channels over which it is spread in an attempt to assess the impact it could have on its target audience. ISKP’s use of media ISKP uses several media platforms to spread its propaganda. This includes through Afghanistan’s most popular medium, the radio (given the country’s high rates of illiteracy), as well as through social media, which is extremely popular among young Afghans. ISKP maintains an on-and-off FM radio station, Khilafat Ghag (Voice of the Caliphate), diffused throughout most of Nangarhar and parts of Kunar. It has issued dozens of short propaganda films, brochures and e-books and efficiently uses social media – Facebook, Twitter and Telegram – to publicise its statements and reach out to potential recruits. ISKP’s visual...
Changing Ties
ONE of Pakistan’s greatest diplomatic achievements during the Cold War was to simultaneously enjoy strong ties with the United States and China. With the end of the Cold War and the retreat of Soviet forces from Afghanistan, this triangular relationship has changed. Pakistan’s ties to Beijing have never been stronger, while ties to Washington are once again troubled. Nothing symbolises this shift more than CPEC. China has offered Pakistan over $50 billion in investments for critical infrastructure projects as prospects for greater financial and military assistance from Washington dim. Washington has good reasons to be supportive — or at least not negative — about CPEC. If Pakistan can raise its game and make the most of this opportunity, CPEC will not just be one more external lending stream, it can help Pakistan achieve sustainable economic growth, one predicate for national, if not regional stability. There are, however, challenges to be overcome before extravagant visions of CPEC can be realised. Thriving port cities depend on location and historic patterns of commerce. Habitual Pakistani frictions between provinces and civil-military relations are complicating the takeoff stage. Beijing does not have a track record of philanthropy with respect to foreign investments. CPEC is not a gift; it’s a mutual opportunity, accompanied with interest rates. And Pakistan is in no position to drive hard bargains. The US may not compete with China for influence in Pakistan. The upswing in China-Pakistan relations extends well beyond CPEC. Beijing is also helping Pakistan by placing road blocks before India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group and preventing the UN from adding Jaish-e-Mohammad chief Masood Azhar to its listing of terrorists. In contrast, the US Defence Authorisation Act passed by the Congress conditions half of the assistance given to Pakistan on demonstrable steps against terror groups. Not that long ago, in 2009, Washington decided to make a...
Will Demonetisation Take Modi Down?
The ill-advised banishing of two critical currency notes by Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to have incurred everyone’s wrath in India but his diehard supporters won’t relent. That and a perpetually divided opposition are a good hint that he will sail through the current crisis too, if it is that, possibly even turning adversity into a careening goal. In most other countries, the head of government would have been forced to go for inflicting the mess that has been let loose on the Indian economy. Modi’s abrupt withdrawal of the 500 and 1,000-rupee notes from November 8 midnight sent people begging to the banks for loose change, but that too is in short supply. A few have passed away waiting in endless queues to change old notes with those that work. Banks and ATMs seem ill-equipped for the task, and riot police have been guarding the outlets against irate mobs. Those who succeed in getting hold of a new 2,000-rupee note or even the new 500-rupee one can’t use it for want of change. Goalposts have shifted about the purpose of the so-called demonetisation. It was first advertised as the surest way to end corruption and terrorism. Now we hear the idea is to turn India into a cashless economy. The latter may be the least damaging afterthought, but it is not bereft of controversy. Mr Modi featured in full-page ads for a high-speed mobile phone launched by the Reliance Group of Mukesh Ambani. How could the prime minister openly support a corporate house, giving it an edge over others? The chaos that has followed India’s decommissioning of 500- and 1,000-rupee notes is the first big setback for the BJP The ad did not go down well with Mr Ambani’s business rivals. Reports say the Reliance Group is to be fined all of 500 rupees for the apparent breach of protocol. The morning after Mr Modi destroyed the currency notes, full-page ads were sponsored by a recently launched electronic wallet outfit, which lauded the prime minister’s decision. Smart phones and electronic...
Afghan Weekly (Dec 02 – Dec 09, 2016)
Following the one-day Heart of Asia ministerial conference in Amritsar, India, on December 04, 2016, 14 countries in the region adopted a declaration and called for an immediate end to all forms of terrorism and to the financing of the problem in Afghanistan. Despite the tensions with India at the Line of Control (LoC), Pakistan attended the conference, reaffirming that Pakistan was against all forms and manifestations of terrorism and a regional and collective approach was required to overcome this menace.[1] On the other hand, in a speech on the US approach to counterterrorism, President Obama stated that “War has been a part of life in Afghanistan for over 30 years, and the United States cannot eliminate the Taliban or end violence in that country.[2] However, he said “But what we can do is deny al Qaeda a safe haven, and what we can do is support Afghans who want a better future, which is why we have worked not only with their military, but we’ve backed a unity government in Kabul.” A New York Times story this week also reported that the Taliban militants have been receiving financial support from the Saudis as the insurgency led by the group has entered its 15th year with the group intensifying attacks since the Afghan forces took full security lead last year.[3] More updates on the security, internal politics, international engagements and socio-economic developments in Afghanistan from the past week follow below. Security Overview Some seminaries in southern Ghazni are training armed militants, the governor alleged – a claim vehemently rejected by the insurgents.[4] Nine Insurgents were killed in a joint Afghan military operation in northern Kunduz province while eight other insurgents were injured on December 04.[5] US drone strike killed 2 ISIS militants in eastern Nangarhar province of Afghanistan on December 04.[6] A prominent leader of the loyalists of ISIS was killed during a clash with the security forces in northern Jawzjan province of...
Sabawoon Showcase: Exclusive Show with Ms. Margaret Adamson, Australian High Commissioner to Pakistan, on Female Rights
The latest episode of Sabawoon, flagship radio program of Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), focused on the women’s rights, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Our special guest for the program was Her Excellency Margaret Adamson, the Australian High Commissioner (AHC) in Pakistan. The key discussion points included women rights, problems faced by women in KP and FATA, importance of education and freedom for women, male predominance in society, role of women in economic development and prosperity, women protection and safety, hurdles faced by females due to internal displacement as a result of security operations, and inclusion of women in decision making and legislation. Moreover, the program also highlighted the steps taken by the AHC to promote gender equality, eliminate violence against women, and the launch of a toll free number to report domestic violence against women with the support of Australian government. The program was aired under the theme of “Ranra” (light) on Thursday. In adition to the AHC, Ms. Nosheen Orakzai, representative of Takra Qabaili Khwendee (Capable Tribals Sisters) Peshawar, and THIRD GUEST, participated in the show as the studio guests. Her excellency Ms. Margaret Adamson, Australian High Commissioner to Pakistan, said: “In collaboration with the KP government and a civil society organization, we have launched the helpline no. 0800-2227. This helpline is a platform for the people of KP to report and register the cases of domestic violence against women. Necessary help will be provided on timely basis both for emergency and routine cases. The helpline is initially launched in seven districts of KP but in the second phase it will be extended to the whole province.” Her excellency added, “Education is fundamental for every person in society. But female education is key for a prosperous, productive, and harmonious society. For the development and economic prosperity of a...
Need for new Afghan policy
Owing to chequered relations with Afghanistan, Pakistan could never develop a comprehensive Afghan policy. A common perception ran through all governments from 1947 to 1979 that erratic relations could be managed. Firstly, Afghanistan was not considered strong enough to pose any serious threat to Pakistan. Secondly, Indian influence in Kabul was not as lethal as today. Thirdly, Pakistan had the US backing during the Cold War era. Pakistan’s responses to crisis in the relationship, in general, remained casual and reactive, mostly preserving legitimacy of the Durand Line. The Soviet intervention in 1979 awakened the government in Islamabad to realize its folly. Pakistan saw the “buffer” disappearing and a super power assuming the status of a “near neighbor”. Potential challenges were grave. All apprehensions of the “cold bear” reaching warm waters of the Indian Ocean started looking real. It was feared that India under the Indo- Soviet Treaty of 1971 might stir up trouble at the western border to weaken Pakistan watch at its Eastern frontier. This entirely new situation warranted a rethink and resetting of the half-baked Afghan policy to exploit Pakistan’s strategic locational advantage. Large cache of literature exists to explain how and why Pakistan chose to become a front state and an ally of the US against the Soviets. And how in following years till now Afghanistan bled and those who basked in defeating Communists suffered. Their woeful bloody torment never abated, though the Geneva Accord was signed on April 14, 1988. During this turbulent time Pakistan made use of intelligence information, technical assistance, training facilities offered, high tech surveillance equipment received and information exchanged with key allies including US, China, Saudi Arabia, UK etc. to evolve a little more consistent Afghan policy. The salient feature of this embryonic policy, nevertheless, corresponded to Pakistan’s need for stable friendly relations with the government in...
Why has Afghanistan fallen into the abyss?
October 7, this year, marked 15 years of US invasion of Afghanistan and its - still ongoing - war on terror post 9/11 attacks. With little, or no, progress over the years, the situation on ground in Afghanistan remains bleak in terms of security and economy. And with the international media losing its interest in the country and its situation, Afghanistan has fallen into an abyss of insecurity, uncertainty and, above all, chronic corruption. SIGAR (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction), in its recently published report on ‘Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan’, draws important lessons from the US expenditure and its failures in Afghanistan since 2001. According to this report, unlike common perception, corruption is not only confined to Afghan ruling elite and institutions, but is widespread among the US and European contractors as well. It was further revealed by SIGAR that the corruption was primarily fuelled by influx of billions of US dollars whose oversight was not only faulty, but also dubious. Even after acknowledging - year in year out – that corruption was the biggest problem haunting Afghanistan, political and security goals set by the White House and US military always took the front, with corruption put on the back burner. Since 2001, Afghanistan has constantly remained between the 165th and 180th ranks on global index of corruption. The report further notes that “there is a general consensus that Afghan corruption has swelled to unprecedented levels since Zahir Shah’s overthrow in 1973—and especially after the Taliban regime’s rollback in 2001.” Source: SIGAR, Report 2016. It is a letdown that with such widespread corruption, directly affecting progress in Afghanistan, the US administration opted to ignore the grave nature of the situation. As one senior US official notes: “In a conflict environment, oversight is difficult, but our systems of accountability are also poor. So when you push large...
Blaming Pakistan Not to Solve Afghanistan’s Problems
Yet again Mr Ashraf Ghani, the erstwhile Afghan President, blamed Pakistan for his government’s sinking fortunes. Taking advantage of Indian support at the Heart of Asia conference in Amritsar, he declined Pakistan’s pledged US$500 million for development projects and then added that Afghanistan had suffered the highest number of casualties last year. He apparently blamed Pakistan for the military losses his army has been suffering this year also. To be exact, Mr Ashraf Ghani is ignoring the ground realities.According to one US think-tank’s recent report, the Afghan forces are “incapable of rolling back gains made by a resurgent Taliban over the past several months” without a larger US military presence in the country. Additionally, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, or SIGAR, in its quarterly report to the US Congress, stated: “Of the 407 districts within the 34 provinces, 258 districts were under government control (88 districts) or influence (170), 33 districts (in 16 provinces) were under insurgent control (8) or influence (25), and 116 districts were ‘contested.” The report was released on October 30, 2016. Meanwhile, the US Forces-Afghanistan, or USFOR-A, said this year that the Afghan government controls or influences 68.5% of the population (22 million) and controls 61.3% of Afghanistan’s territory (350,000 square kilometers), and the Taliban controls or influences 8.1% (2.8 million) and controls 8.7% of the ground (66,000 square kilometers). The remaining 28.5% of the population (7.3 million) and 22.7% of the land (183,000 square kilometers) is contested. The bad news for Mr Ghani is that several experts, including American analysts, believe that the USFOR-A’s report is rather optimistic; they think the Taliban control more areas in Afghanistan than were disclosed. Ghani’s allegations do not take account of the fact that the US officials have admitted that 5,500 Afghan security forces died in just 2015 and that was far more...
Ties Between Russia and The Taliban Worry Afghan, U.S. Officials
Afghan and American officials are increasingly worried that any deepening of ties between Russia and Taliban militants fighting to topple the government in Kabul could complicate an already precarious security situation. Russian officials have denied they provide aid to the insurgents, who are contesting large swathes of territory and inflicting heavy casualties, and say their limited contacts are aimed at bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table. Leaders in Kabul say Russian support for the Afghan Taliban appears to be mostly political so far. But a series of recent meetings they say has taken place in Moscow and Tajikistan has made Afghan intelligence and defence officials nervous about more direct support including weapons or funding. A senior Afghan security official called Russian support for the Taliban a "dangerous new trend", an analysis echoed by the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, General John Nicholson. He told reporters at a briefing in Washington last week that Russia had joined Iran and Pakistan as countries with a "malign influence" in Afghanistan, and said Moscow was lending legitimacy to the Taliban. Russia's ambassador to Kabul, Alexander Mantytskiy, told reporters on Thursday that his government's contacts with the insurgent group were aimed at ensuring the safety of Russian citizens and encouraging peace talks. "We do not have intensive contacts with the Taliban," he said through an interpreter, adding that Russia favored a negotiated peace in Afghanistan which could only happen by cultivating contacts with all players, including the Taliban. Mantytskiy expressed annoyance at persistant accusations of Russian collaboration with the Taliban, saying the statements by American and Afghan officials were an effort to distract attention from the worsening conflict. "They are trying to put the blame for their failures on our shoulders," he told Reuters. ANOTHER "GREAT GAME"? Afghanistan has long been the scene of international intrigue and...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.