Current Projects
Trump Inherits the 'Good War'
The question of what President-elect Donald Trump has planned for Afghanistan rarely came up during his run for the presidency. As is the sometimes-custom of Trump, apart from several tweets (“Let's get out of Afghanistan?”) and inflammatory comments (“Karzai is a crook”), it’s unclear what he wants to do in the country, despite the fact that it is the site of the longest war in U.S. history. Since 2002, the international community has spent some $100 billion on rebuilding the country and its economy. Nearly 70 percent of Afghanistan's annual income is from international donors. Washington itself “is by far the largest spender on the Afghan armed forces and government. Without U.S. financial support, it is difficult to imagine the state, in its current form, surviving,” said Thomas Ruttig, the co-founder of the Afghanistan Analysts Network, an independent, non-profit think tank. Yet the next American president has been a harsh critic of the very aid the Afghan state depends on, according to Barnett Rubin, director of New York University’s Center on International Cooperation and a long-time adviser on Afghanistan to both the UN and the United States. “He believes it’s wasted money,” Rubin said. In Afghanistan, Trump may have a strong argument. Despite what the United States has spent there in the name of improving security, UN figures indicate that civilian deaths have reached a new peak since the beginning of the census in 2009. Between January 1 and September 30 of this year, the UN recorded 2,562 conflict-related civilians deaths and 5,835 injuries. Meanwhile, Transparency International has repeatedly accused Afghan politicians of stealing millions of dollars of aid money. Corruption is also one of the main causes of the extreme poverty afflicting the country. Rubin said Trump would face congressional opposition if he tried to cut off all of Afghanistan’s aid. “But I think [such aid] will come into much greater question than if Hillary Clinton has been elected,”...
Trump Inherits the ‘Good War’
The question of what President-elect Donald Trump has planned for Afghanistan rarely came up during his run for the presidency. As is the sometimes-custom of Trump, apart from several tweets (“Let's get out of Afghanistan?”) and inflammatory comments (“Karzai is a crook”), it’s unclear what he wants to do in the country, despite the fact that it is the site of the longest war in U.S. history. Since 2002, the international community has spent some $100 billion on rebuilding the country and its economy. Nearly 70 percent of Afghanistan's annual income is from international donors. Washington itself “is by far the largest spender on the Afghan armed forces and government. Without U.S. financial support, it is difficult to imagine the state, in its current form, surviving,” said Thomas Ruttig, the co-founder of the Afghanistan Analysts Network, an independent, non-profit think tank. Yet the next American president has been a harsh critic of the very aid the Afghan state depends on, according to Barnett Rubin, director of New York University’s Center on International Cooperation and a long-time adviser on Afghanistan to both the UN and the United States. “He believes it’s wasted money,” Rubin said. In Afghanistan, Trump may have a strong argument. Despite what the United States has spent there in the name of improving security, UN figures indicate that civilian deaths have reached a new peak since the beginning of the census in 2009. Between January 1 and September 30 of this year, the UN recorded 2,562 conflict-related civilians deaths and 5,835 injuries. Meanwhile, Transparency International has repeatedly accused Afghan politicians of stealing millions of dollars of aid money. Corruption is also one of the main causes of the extreme poverty afflicting the country. Rubin said Trump would face congressional opposition if he tried to cut off all of Afghanistan’s aid. “But I think [such aid] will come into much greater question than if Hillary Clinton has been elected,”...
PM heads cabinet meeting on FATA Reforms Committee Report
The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) has been in the throes of insurgency and disorder for the last fifteen years. Reforms for the semi-autonomous region have been at the top of the agenda for the national counterterrorism strategy, dubbed the National Action Plan (NAP). On November 8, 2015, FATA Reforms Committee was formed. It is headed by the Advisor to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz as it chairman and governor Khyber Pukhtunkhwa (KP), federal minister for state and frontier regions, federal minister for law and justice and the national security advisor as its members was formulated. The committee works on consultations and recommendations for reforms in FATA on the basis of the following four themes: Maintain the status quo but introduce judicial/administrative reforms and increase focus on development activities; create FATA Council on the pattern of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB); FATA to become a separate province and Integrate FATA with KP The committee has visited all the seven agencies and held 16 meetings with all the stake-holders including, notables and politicians of FATA, media persons, students, business community, lawyers and political parties.[1] In August 2016, it came up with a report which overwhelmingly recommended that FATA should be integrated with KP which will require a transition period of 5 years. Other recommendations for reform include: rehabilitation and reconstruction; socio-economic development of FATA; elected local bodies for FATA; legal reforms; capacity building of law enforcement agencies (LEAs) and land settlement in FATA. On Thursday, the Prime Minister headed a cabinet meeting to discuss the FATA Reforms Committee’s report in detail.[2] The government decided to hold further consultations on the reforms to evolve political consensus. Two political parties, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazal (JUI-F) and Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) had expressed reservations about the FATA’s merger with KP. The PM vowed...
Sabawoon Showcase: Importance of Sports Activities in the Revival of Peace in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)
December 14, 2016, Peshawar: The latest episode of Sabawoon, flagship radio program of Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), focused on the role of sports in promoting peace and harmony in FATA. The program was aired under the theme of Jwandai Jazbey (living spirits) on Wednesday. Mr. Shahid Shinwari, President FATA Olympic Association, participated as the studio guest in the show. The key points of discussion included the contribution of sports activities to peace building, initiation of games for women, organizing sports events in FATA and creating opportunities for FATA’s youth to excel in sports industry. Moreover, the program underscored the lack of sports facilities in FATA and the role of FATA Olympic Association in organizing different games in the region. A radio report on the central theme of the program was made part of the program. The report shed light on the plans of FATA Sports Directorate to promote sports activities and build sports facilities for the purpose of sustainable peace in the region. Mr. Shahid Shinwari, President FATA Olympic Association, said: “Militancy has negatively impacted the denizens of FATA. A thick layer of fear still shrouds the region and that is why people avoid public gatherings. To overcome this situation, the Association is planning to organize different games and festivals throughout FATA. We are optimistic that such initiatives will help revitalize peace in the region.” Sabawoon airs Monday through Thursday on FM-101.5 Peshawar & DI Khan 711 KHZ from 3:20 PM to 4:00 PM. [1] About Sabawoon Sabawoon is a flagship radio program by CRSS in the KP/FATA region, designed to highlight local issues, and promote fundamental global values such as women’s rights, rule of law, equal citizenry, democracy, governance and accountability. It airs four times a week, under four themes. On Monday, Jarga Marrakka covers current affairs and issues, coupled with government and other senior officials. On Tuesday, Da...
CHINA WATCH [DECEMBER 14-19] CHABAHAR COMPLEMENTS THE CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR (CPEC)
Minister for Planning, Development and Reform Ahsan Iqbal stated that Chabahar port complements the CPEC. Russian ambassador to Pakistan has said that his country “strongly” supports the CPEC project. According to media reports, in the next phase of CPEC, Karachi-Peshawar railway tracks will be made signal-free and gate-free. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) government has proposed multiple alternative routes for the western alignment of the CPEC. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has inaugurated Sorab-Hoshab highway on the western route of CPEC. Chabahar Complements CPEC: Minister for Planning, Development and Reform Ahsan Iqbal has said that Pakistan does not look at the Chabahar port’s progress as a competition but a development that complements the CPEC.[1] He added that “[W]e are the poorest integrated region in the world” and that CPEC is not only meant for Pakistan but the entire region.[2] His statement was intended to pacify the skepticism regarding the development of Chabahar port in neighboring Iran. In May 2016, India, Iran and Afghanistan had signed an agreement to build a transport-and-trade corridor through Afghanistan by developing the strategic port of Chabahar in Iran.[3] Due to New Delhi’s central role in that development, some security observers in Pakistan started looking at this deal as ‘a security threat’ to Islamabad.[4] The clarification on the part of minister might be an important step towards the inclusion of the neighboring countries with an interest in CPEC. Russia Supports CPEC: Russian ambassador to Pakistan Alexy Y. Dedov stated that his country “strongly” supports the CPEC project.[5] He noted that the corridor is crucial for Pakistan’s economy and regional connectivity. Dedov added that CPEC was a component of China’s Silk Road and that his country was also working on a similar Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Last month Moscow had rejected the reports by Pakistani media that Russia was holding ‘secret negations’ with Islamabad to become part...
Failing Rhetoric
At a recent news briefing at the Pentagon, Gen John W. Nicholson, the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan claimed that the Pak-Afghan region has the highest concentration of terrorist groups in the world. Out of the 98 US-designated terrorist groups around the world, 20 were in the Pak-Afghan region. Interestingly he claimed, thirteen of these 20 groups were based in Afghanistan and seven in Pakistan. Though these is the last month of Obama’s administration, its military officials are still in a state of denial that US failed in its 15 years war against Taliban and others and continued to blame Pakistan for hosting seven terrorist groups. The U.S. Department of State Country Reports on Terrorism for 2014 & 2015, however, show decrease in terrorist attacks and related casualties in Pakistan and recognize its military accomplishments in “under-governed” areas. Afghan and American officials are increasingly worried that deepening of ties between Russia and Taliban insurgents could complicate an already precarious security situation. Such a concern is linked to a statement of the Russian Special envoy to Afghanistan (Zamir Kabulov) (November 15, 2016) wherein he observed that there is no quick and cheap solution in Afghanistan and Taliban were a “real political force” on “the same page with Russia”. The US commanders are seeing too many flies in the soup. General John Nicholson said in Washington that Russia had joined Iran and Pakistan as countries with a "malign influence" in Afghanistan, and Moscow was lending legitimacy to the Taliban. Afghan intelligence and defence officials are nervous that in recent months a series of meetings with representatives of Taliban, took place in Russia and Tajikistan. The Afghan President has hardly recovered from the Iranian confession that it has been in contact with Taliban. Afghanistan and US are concerned that Russia has called a meeting of Pakistan, China and Iran to discuss the Afghan situation in December....
CPEC to Generate Returns for Paying Back Foreign Debt
Pakistan has completed its loan programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September this year with inflows of $6.4 billion over a period of 36 months. This borrowing helped ease the strain on the balance of payments and enabled the country to bear cost of its foreign debt. In the meantime, foreign currency reserves of the country, which had dropped to dangerously low levels three years ago, swelled to an all-time high in 2016. The loan programme successfully ended at a time when Pakistan kicked off work on a raft of infrastructure projects including the building of energy plants and ports and construction of roads and highways under the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). There is important relationship between the IMF loan and CPEC as Pakistan will start repaying the IMF debt in 2018 and this will be the time when CPEC will start giving returns to Beijing and Islamabad. Arif Habib Limited Head of Research Shahbaz Ashraf calculated that China had so far invested $15-16 billion in CPEC projects. The projects, especially the power production plants, would help Pakistan’s GDP to grow by an additional two percentage points from FY19, he said. Apart from this, services to China for transporting its trade cargo via Pakistan would generate $500-700 million per annum for Islamabad, Ashraf said. “This amount may be utilised to pay back China’s debt for CPEC projects, which is mostly included in the power tariff to be recovered from end-consumers.” The first of the power projects is expected to come online by June 2017 in Punjab. It will give some boost to the national economy and create resources for the country to clear IMF loan as well as service and reduce the huge overall foreign debt worth around $74 billion. However, such developments will not come easily unless the government has the courage to tackle the persisting challenges and address fundamental faults in the economy and the political system. “Significant challenges remain...
Pakistan and India: Current Issues and Future Directions
Pakistan and India are facing serious difficulties in their bilateral relations. Though they are not in a state of war, a virtual warlike situation exists on the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir. They are engaged in an intense propaganda against each other. Their mutual antagonism has increased since Narendra Modi became India’s Prime Minister in May 2014. An interesting feature of the difficult Pakistan-India relation is that there is a wide discrepancy in the informal and personal interaction between Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the policies of their governments. The goodwill reflected the personal interaction of the two Prime Ministers has not played any moderating role on the troubled relations between the two governments. India holds Pakistan responsible for all terrorist incidents in mainland India and Indian-administered Kashmir. The major incidents enumerated by India include the terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament (December 2001), the attack in Mumbai (November 2008), the military camp Pathankot attack (January 2016), the military camp in Uri attack (September 2016), and an attack of Nagrota Army Camp near Jammu City (November 2016). India blames Lashkar-e-Tayyaba/Jamaat-ud-Dawa, Jaish-i-Muhammad for these terrorist incidents and wants that the chiefs of these organizations should be handed over to it. Further, it also wants the completion of the trial of Lashkar-i-Tayyaba activists in connection with the Mumbai attack that has been going on in Rawalpindi since their arrest in December 2008. India refuses to hold any dialogue with Pakistan until the latter adopts punitive measures against the above named groups and puts these out of action. This pre-condition for holding the talks is coupled with India’s persistent campaign for isolating Pakistan at the international and regional levels and getting it declared as a terrorist state by the United States and the UN. It is not an advisable strategy on the part of...
Pakistani Image on an Afghan Campus
During a recent visit to the Balkh University in this northern city in Afghanistan, students were found to be critical of Pakistan’s polices, but many had positive observations and called for more Pakistani scholarships and greater people-to-people contacts. Interactions with local people dispelled certain notions prevalent in Pakistan about northern parts of Afghanistan. Incidentally, this correspondent encountered just one student among a group as large as 80 students at the university had lived in Peshawar as a refugee, but everyone else knew Pakistan very well and were aware of Islamabad’s policies about Afghanistan. Unlike Afghan government leaders, students presented a balanced approach towards Pakistan; they did not just confine themselves to leveling allegations against Pakistan but they were thankful to Pakistan for building the university’s Liaquat Ali Khan Engineering Faculty. The block was built with Pakistani assistance to Afghanistan amounting to more than $18 million. “I and my fellow students are grateful to Pakistan for contributing to building this university in Balkh province. But, this is not enough; we need help to improve information technology and other departments too,” Mohammed Humayoon, a student studying Uzbek language and arts said during a question-answer session. Highlighting “great difficulties faced by (the Afghan) people in acquiring Pakistani visas,” he urged the governments of the two countries to improve transit trade, adding that goods from Pakistan could be used to bolster links with the Balkh province. The interaction with students was part of an unofficial track-II dialogue titled ‘Beyond Boundaries’ during which students frankly discussed various issues with Pakistani and Afghan participants. Appreciating Pakistan for helping Afghan refugees for nearly 40 years, Farzana, a student of the engineering department, said: “We are surprised at the recent treatment of Sharbat Gula in Pakistan. Can you explain why this was...
Update On Afghanistan’s Electoral Process: Electoral Deadlock Broken – For Now
Afghanistan’s electoral reform process, a major part of the National Unity Government’s programme, has been slow and painful with its high stakes and divided government positions. But over the last few months two significant hurdles have been taken: the new electoral law has finally been passed, and the new electoral commissions have been appointed. Although the commissions are ready to start planning the country’s overdue parliamentary and district council elections, the problems that have long held back the electoral process are far from resolved. In particular, the questions of what electoral system to employ and how to organise voting have now been passed on to the IEC to grapple with. AAN’s Martine van Bijlert and Ali Yawar Adili answer key questions on where we are now. Why has Afghanistan’s electoral process been so complicated? Afghanistan’s post-Taleban electoral process has been vulnerable from the very beginning: from fraud during the election itself, to manipulation in its aftermath when trying to settle on the winners, to power games that seek to shape the electoral infrastructure in the run-up to the elections. It was precisely this inability to arrive at an unambiguous outcome in the 2014 presidential elections that resulted in the current, somewhat combustible National Unity Government (NUG) made up of President Ashraf Ghani and the newly established position of Chief Executive, Dr Abdullah Abdullah. As part of the political agreement (full text here), the two sides agreed to fundamental electoral reform ahead of the next elections – planned for 2015, but yet to take place – despite reluctance on the part of the presidential camp. The demands for electoral reform from the Abdullah camp largely focused on the complete overhaul of the electoral bodies – the Independent Election Commission (IEC) and the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) – which they accused of having overseen widespread fraud in favour of the president in the 2014 elections, and...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.