Current Projects
CHINA WATCH [DECEMBER 14-19] CHABAHAR COMPLEMENTS THE CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR (CPEC)
Minister for Planning, Development and Reform Ahsan Iqbal stated that Chabahar port complements the CPEC. Russian ambassador to Pakistan has said that his country “strongly” supports the CPEC project. According to media reports, in the next phase of CPEC, Karachi-Peshawar railway tracks will be made signal-free and gate-free. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) government has proposed multiple alternative routes for the western alignment of the CPEC. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has inaugurated Sorab-Hoshab highway on the western route of CPEC. Chabahar Complements CPEC: Minister for Planning, Development and Reform Ahsan Iqbal has said that Pakistan does not look at the Chabahar port’s progress as a competition but a development that complements the CPEC.[1] He added that “[W]e are the poorest integrated region in the world” and that CPEC is not only meant for Pakistan but the entire region.[2] His statement was intended to pacify the skepticism regarding the development of Chabahar port in neighboring Iran. In May 2016, India, Iran and Afghanistan had signed an agreement to build a transport-and-trade corridor through Afghanistan by developing the strategic port of Chabahar in Iran.[3] Due to New Delhi’s central role in that development, some security observers in Pakistan started looking at this deal as ‘a security threat’ to Islamabad.[4] The clarification on the part of minister might be an important step towards the inclusion of the neighboring countries with an interest in CPEC. Russia Supports CPEC: Russian ambassador to Pakistan Alexy Y. Dedov stated that his country “strongly” supports the CPEC project.[5] He noted that the corridor is crucial for Pakistan’s economy and regional connectivity. Dedov added that CPEC was a component of China’s Silk Road and that his country was also working on a similar Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Last month Moscow had rejected the reports by Pakistani media that Russia was holding ‘secret negations’ with Islamabad to become part...
Failing Rhetoric
At a recent news briefing at the Pentagon, Gen John W. Nicholson, the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan claimed that the Pak-Afghan region has the highest concentration of terrorist groups in the world. Out of the 98 US-designated terrorist groups around the world, 20 were in the Pak-Afghan region. Interestingly he claimed, thirteen of these 20 groups were based in Afghanistan and seven in Pakistan. Though these is the last month of Obama’s administration, its military officials are still in a state of denial that US failed in its 15 years war against Taliban and others and continued to blame Pakistan for hosting seven terrorist groups. The U.S. Department of State Country Reports on Terrorism for 2014 & 2015, however, show decrease in terrorist attacks and related casualties in Pakistan and recognize its military accomplishments in “under-governed” areas. Afghan and American officials are increasingly worried that deepening of ties between Russia and Taliban insurgents could complicate an already precarious security situation. Such a concern is linked to a statement of the Russian Special envoy to Afghanistan (Zamir Kabulov) (November 15, 2016) wherein he observed that there is no quick and cheap solution in Afghanistan and Taliban were a “real political force” on “the same page with Russia”. The US commanders are seeing too many flies in the soup. General John Nicholson said in Washington that Russia had joined Iran and Pakistan as countries with a "malign influence" in Afghanistan, and Moscow was lending legitimacy to the Taliban. Afghan intelligence and defence officials are nervous that in recent months a series of meetings with representatives of Taliban, took place in Russia and Tajikistan. The Afghan President has hardly recovered from the Iranian confession that it has been in contact with Taliban. Afghanistan and US are concerned that Russia has called a meeting of Pakistan, China and Iran to discuss the Afghan situation in December....
CPEC to Generate Returns for Paying Back Foreign Debt
Pakistan has completed its loan programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September this year with inflows of $6.4 billion over a period of 36 months. This borrowing helped ease the strain on the balance of payments and enabled the country to bear cost of its foreign debt. In the meantime, foreign currency reserves of the country, which had dropped to dangerously low levels three years ago, swelled to an all-time high in 2016. The loan programme successfully ended at a time when Pakistan kicked off work on a raft of infrastructure projects including the building of energy plants and ports and construction of roads and highways under the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). There is important relationship between the IMF loan and CPEC as Pakistan will start repaying the IMF debt in 2018 and this will be the time when CPEC will start giving returns to Beijing and Islamabad. Arif Habib Limited Head of Research Shahbaz Ashraf calculated that China had so far invested $15-16 billion in CPEC projects. The projects, especially the power production plants, would help Pakistan’s GDP to grow by an additional two percentage points from FY19, he said. Apart from this, services to China for transporting its trade cargo via Pakistan would generate $500-700 million per annum for Islamabad, Ashraf said. “This amount may be utilised to pay back China’s debt for CPEC projects, which is mostly included in the power tariff to be recovered from end-consumers.” The first of the power projects is expected to come online by June 2017 in Punjab. It will give some boost to the national economy and create resources for the country to clear IMF loan as well as service and reduce the huge overall foreign debt worth around $74 billion. However, such developments will not come easily unless the government has the courage to tackle the persisting challenges and address fundamental faults in the economy and the political system. “Significant challenges remain...
Pakistan and India: Current Issues and Future Directions
Pakistan and India are facing serious difficulties in their bilateral relations. Though they are not in a state of war, a virtual warlike situation exists on the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir. They are engaged in an intense propaganda against each other. Their mutual antagonism has increased since Narendra Modi became India’s Prime Minister in May 2014. An interesting feature of the difficult Pakistan-India relation is that there is a wide discrepancy in the informal and personal interaction between Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the policies of their governments. The goodwill reflected the personal interaction of the two Prime Ministers has not played any moderating role on the troubled relations between the two governments. India holds Pakistan responsible for all terrorist incidents in mainland India and Indian-administered Kashmir. The major incidents enumerated by India include the terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament (December 2001), the attack in Mumbai (November 2008), the military camp Pathankot attack (January 2016), the military camp in Uri attack (September 2016), and an attack of Nagrota Army Camp near Jammu City (November 2016). India blames Lashkar-e-Tayyaba/Jamaat-ud-Dawa, Jaish-i-Muhammad for these terrorist incidents and wants that the chiefs of these organizations should be handed over to it. Further, it also wants the completion of the trial of Lashkar-i-Tayyaba activists in connection with the Mumbai attack that has been going on in Rawalpindi since their arrest in December 2008. India refuses to hold any dialogue with Pakistan until the latter adopts punitive measures against the above named groups and puts these out of action. This pre-condition for holding the talks is coupled with India’s persistent campaign for isolating Pakistan at the international and regional levels and getting it declared as a terrorist state by the United States and the UN. It is not an advisable strategy on the part of...
Pakistani Image on an Afghan Campus
During a recent visit to the Balkh University in this northern city in Afghanistan, students were found to be critical of Pakistan’s polices, but many had positive observations and called for more Pakistani scholarships and greater people-to-people contacts. Interactions with local people dispelled certain notions prevalent in Pakistan about northern parts of Afghanistan. Incidentally, this correspondent encountered just one student among a group as large as 80 students at the university had lived in Peshawar as a refugee, but everyone else knew Pakistan very well and were aware of Islamabad’s policies about Afghanistan. Unlike Afghan government leaders, students presented a balanced approach towards Pakistan; they did not just confine themselves to leveling allegations against Pakistan but they were thankful to Pakistan for building the university’s Liaquat Ali Khan Engineering Faculty. The block was built with Pakistani assistance to Afghanistan amounting to more than $18 million. “I and my fellow students are grateful to Pakistan for contributing to building this university in Balkh province. But, this is not enough; we need help to improve information technology and other departments too,” Mohammed Humayoon, a student studying Uzbek language and arts said during a question-answer session. Highlighting “great difficulties faced by (the Afghan) people in acquiring Pakistani visas,” he urged the governments of the two countries to improve transit trade, adding that goods from Pakistan could be used to bolster links with the Balkh province. The interaction with students was part of an unofficial track-II dialogue titled ‘Beyond Boundaries’ during which students frankly discussed various issues with Pakistani and Afghan participants. Appreciating Pakistan for helping Afghan refugees for nearly 40 years, Farzana, a student of the engineering department, said: “We are surprised at the recent treatment of Sharbat Gula in Pakistan. Can you explain why this was...
Update On Afghanistan’s Electoral Process: Electoral Deadlock Broken – For Now
Afghanistan’s electoral reform process, a major part of the National Unity Government’s programme, has been slow and painful with its high stakes and divided government positions. But over the last few months two significant hurdles have been taken: the new electoral law has finally been passed, and the new electoral commissions have been appointed. Although the commissions are ready to start planning the country’s overdue parliamentary and district council elections, the problems that have long held back the electoral process are far from resolved. In particular, the questions of what electoral system to employ and how to organise voting have now been passed on to the IEC to grapple with. AAN’s Martine van Bijlert and Ali Yawar Adili answer key questions on where we are now. Why has Afghanistan’s electoral process been so complicated? Afghanistan’s post-Taleban electoral process has been vulnerable from the very beginning: from fraud during the election itself, to manipulation in its aftermath when trying to settle on the winners, to power games that seek to shape the electoral infrastructure in the run-up to the elections. It was precisely this inability to arrive at an unambiguous outcome in the 2014 presidential elections that resulted in the current, somewhat combustible National Unity Government (NUG) made up of President Ashraf Ghani and the newly established position of Chief Executive, Dr Abdullah Abdullah. As part of the political agreement (full text here), the two sides agreed to fundamental electoral reform ahead of the next elections – planned for 2015, but yet to take place – despite reluctance on the part of the presidential camp. The demands for electoral reform from the Abdullah camp largely focused on the complete overhaul of the electoral bodies – the Independent Election Commission (IEC) and the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) – which they accused of having overseen widespread fraud in favour of the president in the 2014 elections, and...
Afghan Weekly (Dec 10 – Dec 16, 2016)
The Taliban militants group in Afghanistan has offered new demands for ending their insurgency in the country this week, including direct talks with the United States. Their new conditions entail recognition of their political office in Qatar and removal of the group's members from the UN blacklist.[1] In a formal letter sent to the UN Security Council, the Government of Afghanistan urged to remove the sanctions from the leaders of the Hezbi Islami organization[2] while, on December 14, Hekmatyar’s notorious Commander Faryadi Zardad was deported from the UK to Afghanistan. According to the Human Rights Watch, this poses dangers for witnesses who testified against the former warlord in his 2005 conviction for torture and hostage taking.[3] On the other hand, a group of 34 Afghan asylum seekers arrived in Kabul on Thursday after being deported from Germany, the first such batch to be sent back after their applications were rejected. According to Islamuddin Jurat, a spokesman for the Afghan Ministry of Refugees, around 10,000 Afghans have had to return from Europe this year, even as the security situation has been worsening in the country amid an escalating Taliban insurgency.[4] More such updates on security, internal politics, international engagements and socio-economic developments in Afghanistan from the past week follow below. Security Overview A top Al-Qaeda leader who was channeling funds to the militants in Afghanistan was arrested during an operation in eastern Nangarhar province, the MOI revealed last Friday. [5] 14 militants were killed in separate airstrikes conducted in southern and western parts of the country, the Ministry of Interior (MoI) said on Saturday.[6] The US Army will deploy an armor brigade and an aviation brigade totaling about 2,300 soldiers to Afghanistan this winter, the service announced.[7] A major operation involving the air and ground forces of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) has been underway in...
The Tangled History of the Afghanistan-India-Pakistan Triangle
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, speaking at the sixth Heart of Asia Conference in Amritsar, India, not only criticized Pakistan but, importantly, also rejected $500 million in aid from Pakistan, recently pledged at the Brussels conference in Europe. Just after his return to the country, Ashraf Ghani went further, saying “We want dignified relations, not charity.” The Afghan president, in a fit of optimism, added, “If we are allowed [to live] peacefully we can find $500 million and if [there is peace] for five years we would be in a situation to give others $500 million.” Ghani’s rejection marked the lowest ebb of bilateral relations between Kabul-Islamabad in the last 15 years and particularly during the rule of the National Unity Government (NUG) in Afghanistan. True, Kabul-Islamabad’s honeymoon ended long ago, and the NUG has snubbed Islamabad already since Pakistan’s failure to bring the Taliban to negotiating table for promised talks in March 2015 and later in March 2016. However, Ghani’s latest remarks are the first time in the last 15 years that Kabul has rejected a nation’s aid. This change in Kabul’s Pakistan policy sparked enormous reactions in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Sartaj Aziz, Pakistan’s foreign affairs adviser and top representatives at the Heart of Asia Conference, slammed Ghani’s remarks as “baseless accusations.” He said, “It is simplistic to blame only one country for the recent upsurge in violence. We need to have an objective and holistic view.” When Aziz returned home, he told reporters in Islamabad that “Ashraf Ghani’s statement was meant to please India.” He added, “India’s efforts to divide us [Pakistan and Afghanistan] will not go very far.” Reactions in Kabul, however, were mostly positive. The Pakistani reaction can be clearly understood by a look into Pakistani print and electronic Urdu and English media, where Ghani’s snub was covered widely initially and then vanished from headlines as media turned their attention to news of...
CPEC: An Opportunity for Further Opportunities
Much has been written about how the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project will turn Pakistan’s fortunes around merely by being a transit for raw materials and energy resources to western China. There is the notion that Gwadar will become a ‘new Dubai’, a glimmering El Dorado on the shores of the Arabian Sea and the source of untold riches. Indeed, many pictures of a supposed future Gwadar are actually of Hong Kong, the epitome of modernity with its iconic towering skyscrapers. However, what is required is a ‘new Rotterdam’, a vast container port stretching out endlessly into the desert with the purpose of getting goods in and out of the country. Gwadar should therefore be considered more of a gateway to landlocked Asia due to the CPEC available to also serve the Central Asian states via Afghanistan. These states could be encouraged to use Gwadar by offering an area of the container storage facility for their exclusive use if they in return used Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) vessels for transport. While containerisation is the hallmark of maritime trade today, however, there is still scope for further opportunities for Pakistan (and others) to expedite exports, (especially to the Arabian Peninsula), by establishing a cargo ferry service. Combined road/sea transportation could be considerably cheaper than air freight for some foodstuffs for example that could travel via Gwadar, embarking on a ferry to an peninsula port for onward travel via its road network, while facilitating Middle Eastern trade with Pakistan, China and Central Asia in reverse. There would also be further opportunities for Pakistan to exploit if such a ferry service was established. It would also provide Pakistan with a strategic sealift capability through the use of these vessels as naval auxiliaries to be chartered or requisitioned in times of crisis, such as environmental/humanitarian/disaster relief operations, support of regional UN missions, and military support to...
Gwadar, CPEC and Emerging Global Order
Earlier, last year the security of Gwadar port was entrusted to Pakistan Navy. The task has since been conscientiously executed via an agile and efficient Marine battalion of the navy. Sited roughly 635 km from Karachi and 120 km from the Iranian border by road, Pakistan’s strategic port of Gwadar constitutes what may be called “bedrock” of CPEC. The government to government CPEC agreements have created bright prospects for optimum utilization of Gwadar port. The mammoth project will harness the benefits accruing out of regional trade connectivity of western China, CARs and Afghanistan with this port. To connect port to the highway network, “Gwadar port Eastbay Expressway” project was agreed for funding under CPEC. The project was approved by ECNEC at an estimated cost of Rs 14 billion. The “Expressway” will connect Gwadar port with Makran coastal highway, a distance of 18.9km. A double track rail link along the “Expressway” is also part of the project. In addition, a “Free Zone” spread over an area 9.23 sq km adjacent and north-west of the port is also being established. The likely economic benefits that Gwadar can produce are tremendous. An estimated revenue of US$40 billion and generation of two million jobs could be enormous impetus for Pakistan’s economy as an emerging market. By now however external actors inimical to CPEC have come out openly with their malevolence. India is doing what it may take to ensure that CPEC does not happen. As part of Modi-Doval doctrine, India has violated the ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC) 103 times during the past one year and 58 times following the Uri incident. In early November, Indian navy conducted a major exercise in North Arabian Sea along the coast of Gujrat, just next to Karachi. The current situation in North Arabian Sea and South Asia is extraordinary and unsettling. All channels of communications between India and Pakistan including media, track II diplomacy etc are blocked. This upping the...
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TESTIMONIALS
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.