Current Projects
Crisis of Conscience
Events since April last year, when the Panama Papers caused ripples across the world, and the ensuing debates in Pakistan, leave little doubt that this finds itself in throes of a crisis of conscience, spearheaded by the status quo stakeholders including the military, politicians, business tycoons, legal wizards and media czars. Endless cutting remarks by the former chief justice Anwar Zaheer Jamali and many of the present judges were an indicator for this crisis of integrity. Similarly, the Panama Papers’ case represents a test for Pakistan’s senior judiciary. The outcome will also help us understand whether personal morality and financial integrity count at all in a country or will the judges adjudicate the matter based on legal arguments and “insufficient evidence.” If they opt for the latter, this will only reinforce the fact that Pakistan remains caught in a severe crisis of integrity because of the multiple powerful nexuses that exist. Back in mid-1980s, the chief minister of a German province, Schleswig-Holstein, committed suicide after he was caught lying before parliament and the press. Similarly, a former German president, Christian Wulff, stepped down in 2012 following a series of financial scandals and the request by a provincial prosecution department to lift his immunity which allowed them to interrogate him. Wulff did not ask for the “proof first”. Neither did he insist on retaining immunity from prosecution. In this unfortunate country, integrity hardly matters. Even the most honourable legal brains stand up before the court to defend notorious wheelers-dealers. Pakistan seems to be ruled by mighty political, legal, business and media cartels. All benefit also from the powerful military establishment which picks and chooses its favourites as and when needed. These alliances of convenience survive and thrive at the cost of the teeming hapless millions of citizens. And litigation keeps piling up for two simple reasons: a) the regime guiding the legal...
Annual Security Report – 2016 (Executive Summary)
Fatalities from Violence by Province – 2016 Pakistan appeared to have made prominent success this year in curbing the sources of violence that had been threatening peace and security not just in Pakistan but in the region. There was a nearly 45% reduction in the number of violence-related fatalities in 2016, which continued the trend of reduction from 2014. In fact, since 2014, there has been an overall reduction of nearly 66%. From a total casualties of 6,572 (4,647 dead and 1,927 injured) reported in 2015, the figure came down to 4,324 (2,610 dead 1,714 injured) in 2016 (table 1). This reflects the success of the kinetic operations across the country by security forces, both military and civilian As reflected by the data, a downward trend in violence was observed throughout the year, and December 2016 was the least violent month of the year (table 2). Fatalities from Violence by Region – 2015 vs. 2016 Regionally, there were some exceptions. Two provinces, Punjab and Balochistan, had a marginal increase in violence this year. Fatalities from violence in Balochistan went up from 719 in 2015 to 798 this year, an upsurge of nearly 10%. Punjab lost 424 persons to violence during this year that was the highest number of fatalities in the province during the last four years. Both of these provinces were the targets of suicide attacks that increased the casualty count. Balochistan had four suicide attacks, leaving 97 persons dead, including 52 lawyers, while Punjab had one suicide attack in Gulshan Iqbal Park, Lahore that left 74 persons dead of whom 29 were children. Districts with Highest Fatalities in Pakistan – 2015 vs. 2016 Karachi, Quetta, Lahore, and Peshawar, all of which host provincial capitals, were among the districts most affected of violence during this year (table 4). However, when compared with the last year figures, a significant drop in fatalities was recognizable during this year at all capital cities with the exception of Quetta and Lahore. Even...
Sabawoon Showcase: Regional Review of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)
January 3, 2017, Peshawar: The latest episode of Sabawoon[i], flagship radio program of Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), was presented under the theme of Da Semi Jaaj (regional review) on Tuesday. This program presents prominent news from the region and provides a crisp analysis. The following reports were included in the program: The problems faced by residents due to encroachments in Kohat city and the lack of local government’s response The issue of dirty roads and absence of a proper communication system in Orakzai agency A protest staged by people against the prolonged power outages in Mohmand agency A book expo in the district Swat organized by a nonprofit organization to encourage book reading habits Lack of basic facilities and usable equipment in Dera Ismail Khan’s district hospital Sabawoon airs Monday through Thursday on FM-101.5 Peshawar & DI Khan 711 KHZ from 3:20 PM to 4:00 PM. [i] Sabawoon is a flagship radio program by CRSS in the KP/FATA region, designed to highlight local issues, and promote fundamental global values such as women’s rights, rule of law, equal citizenry, democracy, governance and accountability. It airs four times a week, under four themes. On Monday, Jarga Marrakka covers current affairs and issues, coupled with government and other senior officials. On Tuesday, Da Semi Jaaj gives a holistic regional overview of the most important stories across the length and breadth of KP/FATA. On Wednesday, Jwandai Jazbey covers issues most important to youth, students and females. Finally, on Thursday, Ranra covers social issues that have a cultural angle and/or impact.
The Rise of Taliban Diplomacy
Since the formation of the Afghan National Unity Government (NUG), the regional competition between the Taliban and the NUG has peaked. The Taliban has widened its diplomatic relations with Russia, China, Iran, and some Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries as well as international organizations to counter the influence of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s regional anti-terror proposal. There are several apparent motives behind the Taliban’s outreach: to decrease misperceptions and concerns about the Taliban and strive to change international opinion, which is currently stacked against them; to get supports for the Taliban’s war against U.S. “occupation”; to negotiate prisoner swaps; and to discuss the Afghan peace process. The Taliban was apparently successful in winning the hearts and minds of China and Russia. In the trilateral Russia-China-Pakistan meeting held in Moscow in late December, all three countries agreed on a “flexible approach to remove certain figures from sanctions lists as part of efforts to foster a peaceful dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban movement.” Two months earlier, Ghani had urged the UN to add Taliban leader Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada to the sanctions list. Recently, the Russian ambassador to Afghanistan also publicly confirmed rumors that Moscow has contacts with the Taliban. To understand the diplomatic competition between the Taliban and the government in Kabul, this piece looks at Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s three-tiered diplomatic policy, the Taliban’s response, and the current state of the Taliban’s relations with important regional countries. Ashraf Ghani’s Three-Tiered Strategy Since assuming the presidency, Ghani has tried a three-tiered diplomatic strategy aimed at ensuring the survival of his government and either cracking down on the insurgency (i.e., the Taliban) or bringing them to negotiating table. The First Tier: Mending Ties with the West Contrary to Hamid Karzai’s second term, Ghani’s foreign policy...
Russia Getting Into Afghan Act
The gathering in Moscow last week — the third in the series of consultations between Russia, China and Pakistan — underlines growing concern about the spillover effect of the Afghan crisis in the region. The initiative is the latest example of Russian assertion of its diplomatic power amidst growing frustration over the American failure to deliver peace in Afghanistan. An underlying cause of anxiety is the growing threat of the militant Islamic State group spreading its tentacles in the war-torn country. But it is still unclear whether the new alliance will be able to help reach a negotiated political solution to the Afghan conflict. Although the Kabul government has now been invited for the next round of talks, its exclusion from the earlier meetings cast a shadow over the process. Not surprisingly, the United States was not invited to the Moscow initiated process. It is, however, premature to assume that the new nexus could replace the quadrilateral forum that included the US along with Pakistan, China and Afghanistan. The quadrilateral talks have been suspended for almost one year after the collapse of efforts to bring the Afghan Taliban insurgents to the negotiating table. The killing of Mullah Akhtar Mansour, the Taliban chief, in a CIA drone strike last May has further diminished hopes for the talks to resume. It is quite apparent that no peace effort could succeed without the tacit support, if not active participation, of the US, which still has about 10,000 troops involved in counter-insurgency operations in Afghanistan. Things have become more complicated with the political transition in Washington. Like other foreign policy issues, there is complete confusion over the Afghan policy in the soon-to-be installed Trump administration. Moscow’s initiative to build a regional alliance against IS points to a changing geo-political landscape. That has perhaps compelled the three countries to find a regional solution to the Afghan crisis that directly affects...
Sabawoon Showcase: Performance of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Government in 2016
January 2, 2017, Peshawar: The latest episode of Sabawoon[i], flagship radio program of Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), reviewed the performance of KP government during the last year. The key discussion points included the budget allocation for developmental schemes, collaborative projects with civil society organizations and increasing investment in health and education sectors. Moreover, the program highlighted the legislations by KP government to ensure transparency and accountability, right to public information and services and e-governance program. The program was aired under the theme of Jarga Marrakka (debate and council) on Monday. Mr. Arif Yousaf, Advisor to KP Chief Minister, and Mr. Zahid Nadeem, Town-1 Nazim Peshawar, participated as the studio guests. A radio report was included in the program. It highlighted the progress made by district governments in Mardan and Peshawar. Furthermore, the report shed light on the KP government’s investments in the secondary and higher levels of education. Ten callers took part live in the program. They shared views about the performance of respective district governments regarding the initiation of developmental projects. They raised concerns about the lack of government attention towards some areas of development. Mr. Arif Yousaf said: “The initiation of local government system is a big achievement of our government. It has an enabled us outreach every part of KP and has helped implement hundreds of small projects.” Sabawoon airs Monday through Thursday on FM-101.5 Peshawar & DI Khan 711 KHZ from 3:20 PM to 4:00 PM. [i] Sabawoon is a flagship radio program by CRSS in the KP/FATA region, designed to highlight local issues, and promote fundamental global values such as women’s rights, rule of law, equal citizenry, democracy, governance and accountability. It airs four times a week, under four themes. On Monday, Jarga Marrakka covers current affairs and issues, coupled with...
Who Defines Violent Non-State Actors in International Politics?
December 14, 2016, witnessed a surprising unfolding of events in Syria, with the Assad forces declaring a victory over the rebel groups in Eastern Aleppo. There were mixed scenes of misery and jubilation on the social and electronic media, with majority of the social media focused on the alleged brutality of Russian and Assad forces killing innocent women and children in the city. On the global front, the US and Russian envoys to the UN also traded barbs at each other. The US tried to shame Russia for supporting Assad and killing Syrians, whereas Russia accused the US of supporting and nourishing non state actors, such as ISIS and the Free Syrian Army. With the complicated war fronts and intra-state conflicts in modern times, especially in South Asia and Middle East, there remains a void on defining violent fringe groups, commonly known as Violent Non State Actors, or VNSAs. Where Afghanistan’s commonly known VNSAs are the Taliban, Pakistan’s NSAs include Tehrik i Taliban and armed groups based in FATA, Balochistan and South Punjab. In international arena, Al Qaeda and ISIS (or ISIL) are the most talked-about VNSAs currently. Now what makes the whole concept of NSAs interesting is how one party can see them as illegitimate groups, whereas the other party see them more on the lines of having a legitimate right to take up arms against the state. For the sake of understanding, one can assume that VNSAs, irrespective of the circumstances, are never to be backed by a legitimate state. Yet, there remains a major dilemma on who defines the legitimacy of VNSAs in current global politics. The VNSA dilemma has taken to the fore since the Syrian war started, with countless groups, all claiming to be legitimate representatives of Syrian people, aiming to overthrow Bashar al-Assad and his regime. The US government, over the course of Obama presidency, has openly supported most of these groups calling for Assad to leave. The Free Syrian Army, which clearly falls under...
Analysis: Can The Supreme Court Ban India’s Communal Habit?
The Supreme Court of India on Monday reportedly prohibited politicians from using peoples’ religion or caste to garner their votes, and the verdict has been described as one that could force political parties to change their strategy for the coming elections. The court had expressed a similar view in October. “No politician can seek a vote in the name of caste, creed or religion,” said Chief Justice T.S. Thakur in an order, adding that election process must be a “secular exercise” Gandhiji said of the western civilisation that it was a good idea. The same can be said on behalf of the apex court’s verdict. It is a good idea. However, it looks untenable in its execution. Clever politicians seldom appeal directly to their constituents to vote according to their religion or caste. More often in practice it is done deviously. For example, some people may ‘discover’ in an Uttar Pradesh village, bang on the eve of its state polls, that a Muslim ironsmith had slaughtered a cow for his daughter’s wedding. The dubious discovery could be enough of a trigger for a violent communal polarisation, without the politician lifting a finger. The country is replete with any number of permutations that could easily waylay the Supreme Court’s judgment without inviting contempt proceedings. Examine: Is it safe to be a communal peace hero in India? If the Supreme Court prohibited the media against fanning religious trouble, on the other hand, which is how communalism gets oxygen, it could begin to help stem the rot. Another approach to deter the use of communalism in politics can be to speed up the cases in communal riots. For example, punish the guilty in the one involving the demolition of the Babri masjid in Ayodhya. Deterring hate speech could be another condition to make politics less communalism-prone and that is a major challenge. Narrow nationalsim Does the ambit of communalism include narrow nationalism, for example, the act of calling Indian Muslims agents of Pakistan?...
Pakistan muddles along
Pakistan has endured over a decade of political discord, security crises and prolonged military rule. In 2016, the fragile civilian-led government experienced both setbacks and successes following this legacy of instability. Back in 2013, Pakistan underwent an unusual military to civil transition, beginning with the appointment of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in democratic elections in June. In November of that year, General Ashfaq Kayani handed the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) baton to General Raheel Sharif. And in December, Iftikhar Chaudhry — the iconic yet controversial chief justice — also retired. In November 2016, General Qamar Hayat Bajwa was appointed the new COAS and in December Sharif picked Lieutenant-General Naveed Mukhtar as the head of the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency. These new appointments were a huge step forward in Pakistan’s troubled journey to becoming a civilian-led government. They also meant that the country saw the backs of three generals in a span of just eight years. During this period the army’s control over certain issues — such as terrorism — increased, as the federal and provincial civilian governments kept ceding space to the army due to the government’s own disunity and weakness. On several occasions General Sharif cautioned the government against corruption and poor governance as his power and popularity grew. Beyond domestic political transition, Pakistan also negotiated a difficult international environment in 2016. In terms of Pakistan–Afghanistan relations, General Sharif began discussions with Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani in earnest as he was determined to drag the Taliban to the table. But he was thwarted on all sides by various vested interests within the two countries’ intelligence agencies. By November 2016, relations between the two countries were at rock bottom and some of the dreaded Pakistan Taliban factions embodied by the Tehreeke Taliban Pakistan (TTP) had begun morphing into the so-called Islamic State...
The Economics of CPEC
In a country where negativity and cynicism reign supreme, critics and detractors of all kinds are revered, and emotional outbursts and fabricated stories dominate the air waves and social media, it is difficult to present a dispassionate analysis of national issues. Since China announced the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), more time and energy has been spent in finding faults, poking holes and raising doubts based on speculation and conjecture. Had this investment been announced in another developing country, the national reaction would be: how do we plan to ensure maximisation of benefits to the economy? What are the weaknesses and deficiencies in the existing set-up we need to overcome? But this type of thinking is not in our DNA. We are either in a mood for celebration and self-congratulations or outright condemnation and depiction of exaggerated pitfalls. There are three types of reservations against CPEC. First, those who believe that this whole endeavour is designed to benefit Punjab to the neglect of the three smaller provinces. Fanning parochial and ethnic prejudices, doubts are created about the narrow impact of these projects. Second, that the country would be saddled with costly external loans and outflows forcing Pakistan to go for another bailout. Frightening numbers such as totals of $110 billion are floating around. Third, some Baloch youth believe that they would become a minority in their own province. Mistrust and not perceived economic gains underlies such anxiety. The government has not helped matters as it has not placed all the data and information about capital structure, detailed sources of financing, project sponsors etc pertaining to CPEC, in the public domain. There are three types of reservations against CPEC. How can we address them? This article, to allay some of the reservations, proposes that the Planning Commission and PIDE use the well-established framework of cost-benefit analysis to evaluate and monitor the net benefits...
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TESTIMONIALS
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.