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Reduction in Violence
A NEW report shows that the number of fatalities and injuries from violence in 2016 declined sharply from the previous year. The report, prepared by the Centre for Research and Security Studies, shows there was a 45pc reduction in fatalities last year due to violence, though the decrease in injuries from violence was a more modest 11pc. There are grounds for some cheer in this report, and taken as a whole, the figures at the national level point towards an improvement in the security situation in the country. But a closer look reveals a few disturbing patterns. For one, violent incidents of a sectarian nature appear to have spread to areas that were previously unaffected, particularly towns in Sindh. Second, the terrorists appear to have adapted to the tougher security measures around the country by resorting to more attacks using improvised explosive devices, landmines and suicide attackers, which killed almost twice as many people in 2016 as in the previous year. These attacks have also become more indiscriminate, killing women and children as well as members of all communities who happen to be in the vicinity. The attack in Gulshan-i-Iqbal Park in Lahore is a prime example. Supposedly an instance of communal violence, the suicide bombing claimed the lives of those belonging to many faiths, including 29 children in the playground. The reduction in the overall level of violence is to be welcomed, but the patterns of violence in 2016 suggest that the terrorism threat in the country is adapting in deadly ways and much work remains to be done to turn the corner in this battle. An emphasis on civil law enforcement is crucial to carry the battle forward into the new era of terrorism threats that appears to be opening up before us. It will be vital to reform the police and enhance judicial capacities to meet the new challenges, as well as work harder to de-legitimise terrorist and extremist narratives in order to drain this swamp. This editorial appeared in Dawn News,...
Will 2017 See More Suicide Bombings? Sadly, Probably Yes
As the new year dawns, there is some final bad news from 2016. Figures collected by Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) and due to be published shortly show that 2016 was a particularly grim year for suicide bombings. Between January and November this year we noted 236 suicide attacks globally, as reported in reputable English-language media. Such terror strikes resulted in 11,621 deaths and injuries, a 19% increase on the same period the year before, and 78% (9,020) of the total harmed have been civilians. Suicide bombs have, it seems, shifted from being an exceptional weapon of war – used rarely – to one almost normalised. This year, 21 countries saw at least one suicide attack. Will 2017 offer some respite from suicide attacks? Sadly, it is not likely. If there is a dark prediction to be made, it is that more harm will come from suicide bombs than ever before. It is important to note that the annual number of suicide bombings globally, over the past six years (the time that AOAV has been running its global monitor of explosive violence), has not dramatically fluctuated. The year with the highest number of suicide attacks – 2013 – saw 270 strikes. The year with the lowest – 2011 – saw 205. Not that major a difference. What concerns, though, is that suicide attacks are becoming more expertly targeted and, in turn, deadlier. By the end of November 2016, the average number of civilian casualties per attack this year stands at 38. This compares to 24 in 2014. Furthermore, the fact that the armed group Islamic State is losing territory indicates a possible future rise in suicide attacks. Such attacks have already taken place from Paris to Jakarta, and are a result of tactical decisions made by Isis leaders, as well as a desire among Isis supporters to “avenge” the caliphate. In 2016, Isis claimed more than 1,000 “martyrdom” operations. Such figures are difficult to verify, but the group has certainly increased its suicide operations and Isis boasts a long list of willing...
Three Important Lessons Behind the Recent News Emerging from Afghanistan
Fifteen years ago, then-U.S. first lady Laura Bush guest-hosted the president’s weekly radio address to talk about Afghanistan. “Because of our recent military gains in much of Afghanistan, women are no longer imprisoned in their homes,” she told Americans, still reeling from the 9/11 attacks. “The fight against terrorism is also a fight for the rights and dignity of women.” But how are Afghan women doing today, 15 years into a war that has cost billions of dollars, and tens of thousands of deaths of civilians and soldiers? A few recent stories help answer this question. First the good news. Reuters recently reported on 20 women who are part of team of 80 engineers working to rebuild Kabul’s Darulaman Palace. This was no special program to empower women — a government official said the women were chosen simply because they were among the best applicants. Darulaman Palace, a grand ruin on a hill overlooking Kabul, is deeply symbolic. Built by a reformist king in the 1920s, it burned twice, and was reconstructed twice, before being destroyed a third time in 1990, as fighting engulfed the city. That female Afghan engineers are helping rebuild it says something deeply encouraging about both Afghan women and Afghan men. Only 15 years after the fall of the Taliban regime allowed women to regain access to education, at least a few Afghan women are excelling in fields like engineering, where women are grossly underrepresented around the world. Afghan men, who make up the vast majority of government officials in a country where gender inequality remains deeply engrained in society, are having the good sense to hire them. Now, the horrifying news. On December 17, five women who work as guards at Kandahar airport in southern Afghanistan were gunned down on their way to work, along with their male driver. A member of the Kandahar provincial council, Niamatullah Wafa, seemingly dismissed the murders in a Facebook post, writing, “Women should stay in their homes with hijab and...
Crisis of Conscience
Events since April last year, when the Panama Papers caused ripples across the world, and the ensuing debates in Pakistan, leave little doubt that this finds itself in throes of a crisis of conscience, spearheaded by the status quo stakeholders including the military, politicians, business tycoons, legal wizards and media czars. Endless cutting remarks by the former chief justice Anwar Zaheer Jamali and many of the present judges were an indicator for this crisis of integrity. Similarly, the Panama Papers’ case represents a test for Pakistan’s senior judiciary. The outcome will also help us understand whether personal morality and financial integrity count at all in a country or will the judges adjudicate the matter based on legal arguments and “insufficient evidence.” If they opt for the latter, this will only reinforce the fact that Pakistan remains caught in a severe crisis of integrity because of the multiple powerful nexuses that exist. Back in mid-1980s, the chief minister of a German province, Schleswig-Holstein, committed suicide after he was caught lying before parliament and the press. Similarly, a former German president, Christian Wulff, stepped down in 2012 following a series of financial scandals and the request by a provincial prosecution department to lift his immunity which allowed them to interrogate him. Wulff did not ask for the “proof first”. Neither did he insist on retaining immunity from prosecution. In this unfortunate country, integrity hardly matters. Even the most honourable legal brains stand up before the court to defend notorious wheelers-dealers. Pakistan seems to be ruled by mighty political, legal, business and media cartels. All benefit also from the powerful military establishment which picks and chooses its favourites as and when needed. These alliances of convenience survive and thrive at the cost of the teeming hapless millions of citizens. And litigation keeps piling up for two simple reasons: a) the regime guiding the legal...
Annual Security Report – 2016 (Executive Summary)
Fatalities from Violence by Province – 2016 Pakistan appeared to have made prominent success this year in curbing the sources of violence that had been threatening peace and security not just in Pakistan but in the region. There was a nearly 45% reduction in the number of violence-related fatalities in 2016, which continued the trend of reduction from 2014. In fact, since 2014, there has been an overall reduction of nearly 66%. From a total casualties of 6,572 (4,647 dead and 1,927 injured) reported in 2015, the figure came down to 4,324 (2,610 dead 1,714 injured) in 2016 (table 1). This reflects the success of the kinetic operations across the country by security forces, both military and civilian As reflected by the data, a downward trend in violence was observed throughout the year, and December 2016 was the least violent month of the year (table 2). Fatalities from Violence by Region – 2015 vs. 2016 Regionally, there were some exceptions. Two provinces, Punjab and Balochistan, had a marginal increase in violence this year. Fatalities from violence in Balochistan went up from 719 in 2015 to 798 this year, an upsurge of nearly 10%. Punjab lost 424 persons to violence during this year that was the highest number of fatalities in the province during the last four years. Both of these provinces were the targets of suicide attacks that increased the casualty count. Balochistan had four suicide attacks, leaving 97 persons dead, including 52 lawyers, while Punjab had one suicide attack in Gulshan Iqbal Park, Lahore that left 74 persons dead of whom 29 were children. Districts with Highest Fatalities in Pakistan – 2015 vs. 2016 Karachi, Quetta, Lahore, and Peshawar, all of which host provincial capitals, were among the districts most affected of violence during this year (table 4). However, when compared with the last year figures, a significant drop in fatalities was recognizable during this year at all capital cities with the exception of Quetta and Lahore. Even...
Sabawoon Showcase: Regional Review of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)
January 3, 2017, Peshawar: The latest episode of Sabawoon[i], flagship radio program of Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), was presented under the theme of Da Semi Jaaj (regional review) on Tuesday. This program presents prominent news from the region and provides a crisp analysis. The following reports were included in the program: The problems faced by residents due to encroachments in Kohat city and the lack of local government’s response The issue of dirty roads and absence of a proper communication system in Orakzai agency A protest staged by people against the prolonged power outages in Mohmand agency A book expo in the district Swat organized by a nonprofit organization to encourage book reading habits Lack of basic facilities and usable equipment in Dera Ismail Khan’s district hospital Sabawoon airs Monday through Thursday on FM-101.5 Peshawar & DI Khan 711 KHZ from 3:20 PM to 4:00 PM. [i] Sabawoon is a flagship radio program by CRSS in the KP/FATA region, designed to highlight local issues, and promote fundamental global values such as women’s rights, rule of law, equal citizenry, democracy, governance and accountability. It airs four times a week, under four themes. On Monday, Jarga Marrakka covers current affairs and issues, coupled with government and other senior officials. On Tuesday, Da Semi Jaaj gives a holistic regional overview of the most important stories across the length and breadth of KP/FATA. On Wednesday, Jwandai Jazbey covers issues most important to youth, students and females. Finally, on Thursday, Ranra covers social issues that have a cultural angle and/or impact.
The Rise of Taliban Diplomacy
Since the formation of the Afghan National Unity Government (NUG), the regional competition between the Taliban and the NUG has peaked. The Taliban has widened its diplomatic relations with Russia, China, Iran, and some Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries as well as international organizations to counter the influence of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s regional anti-terror proposal. There are several apparent motives behind the Taliban’s outreach: to decrease misperceptions and concerns about the Taliban and strive to change international opinion, which is currently stacked against them; to get supports for the Taliban’s war against U.S. “occupation”; to negotiate prisoner swaps; and to discuss the Afghan peace process. The Taliban was apparently successful in winning the hearts and minds of China and Russia. In the trilateral Russia-China-Pakistan meeting held in Moscow in late December, all three countries agreed on a “flexible approach to remove certain figures from sanctions lists as part of efforts to foster a peaceful dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban movement.” Two months earlier, Ghani had urged the UN to add Taliban leader Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada to the sanctions list. Recently, the Russian ambassador to Afghanistan also publicly confirmed rumors that Moscow has contacts with the Taliban. To understand the diplomatic competition between the Taliban and the government in Kabul, this piece looks at Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s three-tiered diplomatic policy, the Taliban’s response, and the current state of the Taliban’s relations with important regional countries. Ashraf Ghani’s Three-Tiered Strategy Since assuming the presidency, Ghani has tried a three-tiered diplomatic strategy aimed at ensuring the survival of his government and either cracking down on the insurgency (i.e., the Taliban) or bringing them to negotiating table. The First Tier: Mending Ties with the West Contrary to Hamid Karzai’s second term, Ghani’s foreign policy...
Russia Getting Into Afghan Act
The gathering in Moscow last week — the third in the series of consultations between Russia, China and Pakistan — underlines growing concern about the spillover effect of the Afghan crisis in the region. The initiative is the latest example of Russian assertion of its diplomatic power amidst growing frustration over the American failure to deliver peace in Afghanistan. An underlying cause of anxiety is the growing threat of the militant Islamic State group spreading its tentacles in the war-torn country. But it is still unclear whether the new alliance will be able to help reach a negotiated political solution to the Afghan conflict. Although the Kabul government has now been invited for the next round of talks, its exclusion from the earlier meetings cast a shadow over the process. Not surprisingly, the United States was not invited to the Moscow initiated process. It is, however, premature to assume that the new nexus could replace the quadrilateral forum that included the US along with Pakistan, China and Afghanistan. The quadrilateral talks have been suspended for almost one year after the collapse of efforts to bring the Afghan Taliban insurgents to the negotiating table. The killing of Mullah Akhtar Mansour, the Taliban chief, in a CIA drone strike last May has further diminished hopes for the talks to resume. It is quite apparent that no peace effort could succeed without the tacit support, if not active participation, of the US, which still has about 10,000 troops involved in counter-insurgency operations in Afghanistan. Things have become more complicated with the political transition in Washington. Like other foreign policy issues, there is complete confusion over the Afghan policy in the soon-to-be installed Trump administration. Moscow’s initiative to build a regional alliance against IS points to a changing geo-political landscape. That has perhaps compelled the three countries to find a regional solution to the Afghan crisis that directly affects...
Sabawoon Showcase: Performance of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Government in 2016
January 2, 2017, Peshawar: The latest episode of Sabawoon[i], flagship radio program of Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), reviewed the performance of KP government during the last year. The key discussion points included the budget allocation for developmental schemes, collaborative projects with civil society organizations and increasing investment in health and education sectors. Moreover, the program highlighted the legislations by KP government to ensure transparency and accountability, right to public information and services and e-governance program. The program was aired under the theme of Jarga Marrakka (debate and council) on Monday. Mr. Arif Yousaf, Advisor to KP Chief Minister, and Mr. Zahid Nadeem, Town-1 Nazim Peshawar, participated as the studio guests. A radio report was included in the program. It highlighted the progress made by district governments in Mardan and Peshawar. Furthermore, the report shed light on the KP government’s investments in the secondary and higher levels of education. Ten callers took part live in the program. They shared views about the performance of respective district governments regarding the initiation of developmental projects. They raised concerns about the lack of government attention towards some areas of development. Mr. Arif Yousaf said: “The initiation of local government system is a big achievement of our government. It has an enabled us outreach every part of KP and has helped implement hundreds of small projects.” Sabawoon airs Monday through Thursday on FM-101.5 Peshawar & DI Khan 711 KHZ from 3:20 PM to 4:00 PM. [i] Sabawoon is a flagship radio program by CRSS in the KP/FATA region, designed to highlight local issues, and promote fundamental global values such as women’s rights, rule of law, equal citizenry, democracy, governance and accountability. It airs four times a week, under four themes. On Monday, Jarga Marrakka covers current affairs and issues, coupled with...
Who Defines Violent Non-State Actors in International Politics?
December 14, 2016, witnessed a surprising unfolding of events in Syria, with the Assad forces declaring a victory over the rebel groups in Eastern Aleppo. There were mixed scenes of misery and jubilation on the social and electronic media, with majority of the social media focused on the alleged brutality of Russian and Assad forces killing innocent women and children in the city. On the global front, the US and Russian envoys to the UN also traded barbs at each other. The US tried to shame Russia for supporting Assad and killing Syrians, whereas Russia accused the US of supporting and nourishing non state actors, such as ISIS and the Free Syrian Army. With the complicated war fronts and intra-state conflicts in modern times, especially in South Asia and Middle East, there remains a void on defining violent fringe groups, commonly known as Violent Non State Actors, or VNSAs. Where Afghanistan’s commonly known VNSAs are the Taliban, Pakistan’s NSAs include Tehrik i Taliban and armed groups based in FATA, Balochistan and South Punjab. In international arena, Al Qaeda and ISIS (or ISIL) are the most talked-about VNSAs currently. Now what makes the whole concept of NSAs interesting is how one party can see them as illegitimate groups, whereas the other party see them more on the lines of having a legitimate right to take up arms against the state. For the sake of understanding, one can assume that VNSAs, irrespective of the circumstances, are never to be backed by a legitimate state. Yet, there remains a major dilemma on who defines the legitimacy of VNSAs in current global politics. The VNSA dilemma has taken to the fore since the Syrian war started, with countless groups, all claiming to be legitimate representatives of Syrian people, aiming to overthrow Bashar al-Assad and his regime. The US government, over the course of Obama presidency, has openly supported most of these groups calling for Assad to leave. The Free Syrian Army, which clearly falls under...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.