Current Projects
Coal Energy: at What Cost?
Minister of Planning and Development Ahsan Iqbal recently informed the parliamentary committee on CPEC that Thar coal would be used for electricity for the next 400 years and that two transmission lines were being installed at Mariari — one to Lahore, and another to Faisalabad, which will be connected to the national grid, benefiting all parts of the country. He also stated that some 11,000 MW of electricity will be added to the national grid by 2018 with the help of the biggest energy investment in the history of Pakistan under CPEC. It will be great news if Pakistan can get rid of power outages in major cities. But the bad news is that over 8,000 MW of this energy will come from coal — major source of carbon emissions in China itself. What consequences will the coal-fired plants, particularly in central Punjab have, usually enveloped by smog in December? China, which surpassed the US in carbon dioxide emission in 2007 becoming leader in world pollution, is already reeling from the impact of the coal energy. In 2014, for instance, Chinese scientists compared the toxic haze to a “nuclear winter” that “has started slowing down photosynthesis in plants.” And recently in December 2016, environmental protection officials called on the government to issue red smog alerts for 23 cities in northern China. Beijing officials had already issued a red alert after warnings of a build-up of toxic air pollution during cold weather. An additional nine industrial cities had also been advised to issue the lowest-level orange alert. In fact, images of school children taking exam in an open football stadium enveloped in a dense cloud of noxious pollution, which triggered the smog “red alert” on December 20, went viral on the social media. Taking cognisance of the choking smog, Chinese officials began taking its environmental problems seriously in the year 2014. They struck a deal with the US to reduce the rate of its carbon emissions by 2030. Statistics from the Chinese National...
Changing Ties
The Indo-US strategic partnership has been a source of constant tension in Pak-US ties in recent years. The US has pursued ‘de-hyphenation’ ie dealing with Islamabad and New Delhi relatively independently of each other. Central to this has been its hands-off approach on contentious Pak-India issues. Donald Trump has excited the Pakistani policy space by hinting at his willingness to reconsider the US line. Pakistani officials in touch with Washington have been trying to determine if Trump will actually consider a more proactive effort to improve Pak-India ties. While there’s no definitive answer, one can point to factors that will influence the Trump White House’s final policy. President Obama’s experience is a starting point. Candidate Obama was explicit in promising a regional approach to South Asia during the 2008 campaign. His reasoning confirmed an appreciation of the link between Pak-India tensions and their fallout on Afghanistan: to solve Afghanistan, one needs improvement on the Pak-India front. The Indians shot down his idea and US policy recoiled to its de-hyphenation default. A tougher US line is on the cards for Pakistan. First, the Washington policy establishment is even more solidly committed to opposing US involvement in Pak-India issues than it was eight years ago. I have challenged the wisdom of this stance given that it contradicts US interest in South Asia. But few accept the proposition. Still, some in Pakistan hope that the Trump team may be less worried about defying Washington’s establishment. Perhaps. But a new administration with multiple policy positions seemingly at odds with this establishment would have to pick its battles carefully. Non-priorities like Pak-India may be ones to sacrifice. Second, Trump’s position on China will complicate things. If Sino-US competition accentuates, India will be even more important as a counterweight to Beijing. India’s leverage over the US would increase, and it will demand that Washington put...
CPEC: Lessons from History
How does one get a grip on the proposed China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its associated investments without any hard information except for the hype? In the absence of any mechanism for credible evaluation I suggest we hold it up against a historical parallel and see what emerges by way of tentative conclusions. Some discussion grounded in real experience may be better than taking sides in the dark. Around the turn of the 20th century, the British invested vast sums of money in the part of the subcontinent that now comprises Pakistan. Amongst these investments were the network of canals and barrages, the post and telegraph, and roads and railways. All included it would have likely added up in real terms to be bigger than the $56 billion associated with CPEC. What came of all that investment and what economic transformations did it sustain? At the macro level, Pakistan remains a desperately poor country with around a third of its population struggling to survive below the poverty line. Almost half the population is functionally illiterate without access to safe water and sanitation or adequate healthcare. Stunting, malnutrition and infant and maternal mortality are at levels considered unacceptable in the rest of the world. The sobering conclusion would be that even if the investments had huge economic payoffs, extremely venal governance ensured that while some people became phenomenally rich very few of the benefits trickled down to the majority in any meaningful sense. What came of all the colonial-era investment and what economic transformations did it sustain? Notwithstanding the issues of governance and distribution, which remain as critical now as then, the question remains: did the investments have huge economic payoffs? Even to speculate intelligently on the question one would need to disaggregate the investments and consider them separately. Take the canal colonies and the barrages. I believe most people would accept that the outcomes were...
Where does Pakistan fit in Russia’s South Asia strategy?
Ever since the Cold War, relations between Moscow and Islamabad have remained weak. Back then during the time of bipolarity, Pakistan was a close ally of the United States while India mainly sided with the Soviet Union. Moscow and Islamabad were involved in military activities against each other with devastating consequences. In 1971 the Soviet Union supplied weapons and helped to arrange training camps for the Mukti Bahini guerrilla resistance movement in East Pakistan (as described by Ex-Soviet KGB foreign intelligence chief Leonid Shebarshin and Indian Intelligence Bureau officer Malloy Krishna Dhar). Moscow contributed to Pakistan's defeat in the 1971 war and the emergence of Bangladesh as a state. Pakistan became a key supplying hub for weapons and fighters during the 1979-1989 war in Afghanistan and the main training field for jihadists. This war contributed to the disintegration of the Soviet Union. After the collapse of the USSR there was no reason for Russia and Pakistan to avoid each other. Despite welcoming signals from Islamabad, Russian leaders were slow in their moving towards Pakistan. Russian President Vladimir Putin never visited Pakistan and it was only on Apr. 11, 2007, 16 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, when then Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov visited Islamabad. Moving towards cooperation The decision to facilitate cooperation between Russia and Pakistan was long expected. It was made only recently, in 2014, and resulted in the visit of the Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu to Islamabad on Nov. 20, 2014. After that both countries passed a number of milestones. Minister Shoygu signed an agreement on military cooperation. The two countries agreed on delivery of four Mi-35M Hind-E combat helicopters. They may arrive in Pakistan later this year. In 2016 the Kalashnikov Concern participated in the trials for a main new assault rifle for Pakistan's infantry. The media in both countries reported about possible deals on additional...
CHINA WATCH [JANUARY 10-16] SECURITY OF THE CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR (CPEC)
Developments regarding the security of CPEC were the prominent news of this week. China handed over two ships to Pakistan for the joint security of CPEC sea route. Chinese ambassador to Pakistan, Sun Weidong, conveyed China’s satisfaction on security arrangements for CPEC. The English daily, The Express Tribune, reported that the government of Pakistan has been thinking over the idea of treating the Chinese funding under CPEC as FDI. A report of China Central Television (CCTV) said that China’s exports to Pakistan have considerably increased in the aftermath of launching of CPEC. A bench of Peshawar High Court gave the prime minister and planning, development and reforms division a fortnight to come up with answer to a petition filed by KP Assembly Speaker Asad Qaiar. Ships for Gwadar Port: China handed over two ships to Pakistan for the joint security of CPEC sea route.[1] The ships which were built in China and equipped with the state-of-art guns were handed over to Pakistan Navy in a ceremony at Gwadar port.[2] These ships are named as Hingol and Bisol after the two nearby rivers. In addition to these two ships, China plans to give Pakistan two more ships for the same purpose. These ships are under construction in China and will be named as Dasht and Zhob.[3] Pakistan and China are cautious about the security of Gwadar port particularly against the backdrop of India’s increasingly assertive regional diplomacy. New Delhi has, on the one hand, shown serious reservations against the CPEC and on the other, ramped up its strategic cooperation with Washington. The U.S. has been keen on countering China through India’s rise in the India Ocean. It is under these circumstances that China and Pakistan are increasing their naval cooperation to secure Gwadar port from any challenge that might emanate from the Indian Ocean. CPEC funds as FDI: The English daily, The Express Tribune, reported that the government of Pakistan has been thinking over the idea of treating the...
Sabawoon Showcase: Local Sports and Need for their Revival
January 12, 2017, Peshawar: The latest episode of Sabawoon[i], flagship radio program of Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), was about the significance of local games and need for their revival. The discussion shed light on different traditional and local sports in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), role of sports in promoting peace and harmony, impact of terrorism on local sports, and the role of sports department in promoting the spirit of games among youth. Furthermore, the program highlighted the adverse effects of social media and technology-based games on youth’s interest in sports. The program was aired under the theme of Ranra (light) on Thursday. Mr. Islam Gul Afridi, journalist from Khyber Agency, was the show guest. A radio report discussed the importance of sports for society and individual’s health. It also analyzed factors behind the decline of local games. Five callers participated live in the show. They expressed their views about the local games from different angles. Mr. Islam said: “Traditional sports are the identity of our society. Parents, sports department, and government should collectively work for their revival.” Sabawoon airs Monday through Thursday on FM-101.5 Peshawar & DI Khan 711 KHZ from 3:20 PM to 4:00 PM. [i] Sabawoon is a flagship radio program by CRSS in the KP/FATA region, designed to highlight local issues, and promote fundamental global values such as women’s rights, rule of law, equal citizenry, democracy, governance and accountability. It airs four times a week, under four themes. On Monday, Jarga Marrakka covers current affairs and issues, coupled with government and other senior officials. On Tuesday, Da Semi Jaaj gives a holistic regional overview of the most important stories across the length and breadth of KP/FATA. On Wednesday, Jwandai Jazbey covers issues most important to youth, students and females. Finally, on Thursday, Ranra covers social issues that...
Afghanistan: US Marines Headed Back to Helmand Province
Approximately 300 Marines will deploy to Afghanistan's Helmand Province this spring, returning to the scene of some of the fiercest battles in America's 15-year-long engagement there. The commandant of the Marine Corps, Gen. Robert Neller, said Thursday that the troops have "no delusions about the difficulty and the challenges they're going to face." The Marines will be tasked with training and advising Afghan soldiers and police in the volatile opium-rich province. Afghan security forces there have been locked in constant clashes with Taliban insurgents, who have managed to reestablish a significant presence. Helmand sits in the country's southwest. While geographically large, it is very rural and contains only about 3% of the Afghan population. "The enemy has fought hard for Helmand," Gen. John Nicholson, the commander of US forces in Afghanistan, told reporters at the Pentagon last month. Nicholson said the Taliban "receive much of their funding from the narcotics trafficking that occurs out of Helmand," adding that "there's a nexus here between the insurgency and criminal networks that's occurring in Helmand that makes Helmand such a difficult fight." "This is a mission we've always been ready for," Lt. Gen. William Beydler, who oversees Marines in the region, told reporters last week. The contingent of Marines will replace US Army advisers currently carrying out the mission, forming "Task Force Southwest," to be commanded by Brig. Gen. Roger Turner Jr. "They continue to need international support," Turner said of the Afghan troops, noting that US personnel would be focusing on intelligence and logistics advice. Some of the troops will be operating in the vicinity of Camp Leatherneck, the one-time home of thousands of Marines in Afghanistan. "The Marine Corps has a deep operational history in Afghanistan, particularly Helmand Province," Turner said, with Beydler noting that Marines first deployed to the province in 2001 and later fought battles against...
Waiting for Release: Will Afghans cleared to leave Guantanamo get out before Trump gets in?
American president-elect Donald Trump has said that no more detainees should be transferred out of America’s war on terror detention camp in Guantanamo Bay. He takes office on 20 January 2017, which leaves the Obama administration just a few days to get men cleared for transfer out of Cuba. Among those waiting to see if their cases go through in time are three Afghans, money changer Wali Mohammed, chokidar Abdul Zahir and seller of plastic flowers Bostan Karim. All have been in detention since 2002 and, AAN’s Kate Clark reports, the cases against them were always among the flimsiest. When Obama came into office in 2009, he vowed to close Guantanamo down. Congress blocked this, stopping him from transferring detainees to the American mainland for trial or incarceration. His only success has been in reducing the population; it should be down from 242 in 2009 to, if all goes to plan, around 40 by 20 January 2017 when he leaves the White House. Anyone remaining after that, it would seem from Trump’s statements on Guantanamo, is likely to be there a very long time. During the election campaign, he praised the detention camp, saying he would like to bring more detainees there. (He also praised waterboarding, although he said it was not “tough enough” and even if it did not work, he would authorise it because “they deserve it anyway for what they do to us.”) Then, on 3 January 2017, Trump tweeted that no more detainees should be transferred; they were “extremely dangerous people,” he said and “should not be allowed back onto the battlefield.” Prisoners cleared for transfer In mid-December 2016, there were still 22 detainees who had been cleared for transfer by a body known as the Periodic Review Board – which can also order the continuing detention or military trial of detainees. The New York Times reported that the US government had found countries willing to take 17 or 18 of them: The effort was part of a burst of urgent, high-level diplomatic talks aimed at moving as...
Afghan Weekly (Jan 06 – Jan 12, 2017)
Speaking to Asharq al-Awsat, an Arab newspaper, on Wednesday, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani stressed on the need for Islamic countries to help bring peace in Afghanistan. "We hope that Islamic countries, including Saudi Arabia, exert pressure on extremist leaders to push them toward reconciliation," he stated while describing Saudi-Afghan relations as strong and essential. He advocated that it was important for Taliban to separate itself from terrorist groups that pose a threat to Islamic nations. Afghans across the board long for peace, Ghani added, and that the Islamic countries should leverage their influence to push extremist leaders towards reconciliation. Commenting on Pakistan, Ghani said that Pakistan’s best interest lies with the Afghan government.[1] Earlier on Monday, General John W Nicholson, Commander Resolute Support Mission and US Forces, in Afghanistan travelled to Pakistan’s North Waziristan border region that until recently was dubbed as an ‘epicenter of global terrorism’. The Pakistan military said that local commanders briefed General John Nicholson on counterterrorism operations and post-conflict social development underway in the area near the Afghan border.[2] On the occasion, Pakistan’s Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa stressed the necessity for setting a "bilateral border security mechanism" between Pakistan and Afghanistan and called for the NATO mission to play its significant role in making it possible. The visiting dignitary recognized the inevitability of bilateral border security coordination.[3] Meanwhile, the Afghan Government signed an $11.4 million contract with a Turkish company on January 07 to build a prefabricated housing factory in the country and, another contract with a Chinese construction firm to build an important road in central Afghanistan – called the Dare-e-Sof and Yakawlang Road project.[4] Afghan CEO Abdullah Abdullah also headed a high-ranking delegation on visit to Tehran on January 11 to confer with...
Dangerous Nexus
In a latest attack against ethnic minorities, some armed men killed nine Shia Hazara miners in the northern Baghlan province of Afghanistan last Friday. The government blamed the militant Islamic State group for the brazen attack on the coalminers in the Tala Wa Barfak district of central Baghlan province. The incident forced around 2000 Shias to stage a protest in western Afghanistan against the growing sectarian attacks by the group for better protection by the government. The militant Islamic State (IS), better known as Daesh, has been making steady inroads into the country, raising the spectre of sectarian discord in the region. Afghanistan saw a wave of such attacks on the Shia community last year, almost all claimed by the IS. In October 2016, some 14 Shias were killed in a powerful blast at a mosque in the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif hours after gunmen targeted Shia worshipers in a shrine in Kabul, killing 18 people. Barely a few days into the new year, in a similar move, five members of the Shia Hazara community were injured when gunmen riding two motorbikes sprayed a vehicle near the Killi Mubarak area on Spiny road in Quetta, Pakistan. Lashkar-e-Jhangvie Al Alami was quick to claim the responsibility for the attack. This is not the first such incident. The province has seen a wave of sectarian attacks in the past, most of them claimed by the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. Until a few months ago, the Islamic State was largely confined to the eastern Nangrahar province of Afghanistan that borders Pakistan’s troubled tribal belt. But, of late, the notorious militant organisation has steadily been expanding its operations into other parts of the country. On the Pakistani side of the border, sectarian militant groups has reportedly been expanding its activities across the country. Last week, police sub inspector Iqbal Mehmood was gunned down in Gulshan-e-Johar in Karachi. This was followed by two more consecutive hand grenade attacks that injured constable Muhammad...
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TESTIMONIALS
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.