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Return of Afghan Refugees to Afghanistan Surges as Country Copes to Rebuild
This is seriously aggravating the government's capacity to absorb refugees in an already difficult environment of high unemployment and internally displaced people after decades of conflict. While the Afghan government works to strengthen internal coordination and strategic planning, the international community also needs to play a vital role in providing financial and humanitarian support to avert a crisis and limit the damage to Afghanistan’s already challenging social and security conditions, and development prospects. From trickle to flood Aid officials estimate that more than 700,000 refugees returned to Afghanistan in 2016. Afghans—the second largest refugee group after Syrians, according to the UN’s refugee agency—are primarily returning from Pakistan, often not voluntarily. There are also returnees from Iran and to a lesser extent from Europe. Analysts project that up to 2½ million will follow over the next 18 months, which will add nearly 10 percent to Afghanistan’s population (see infographic below). To put this in perspective, this would be akin to 50 million migrants entering the European Union over a two-year period. Many of the Afghans who lived abroad for decades are returning to a country facing conflict, insecurity, and widespread poverty. Given the difficult economic climate, prospects for returnees are generally poor. While there are also wealthier returnees, a typical returning refugee has a high risk of falling into poverty—they are typically laborers and workers in the informal economy with limited savings, or small business owners who are forced to liquidate their assets at fire sale prices. Moreover, the prospects for absorbing returning refugees are further complicated by the existence of more than one million internally displaced people, the number of which significantly increased in 2016 as the insurgency intensified. Together with the large number of people who already live in poverty in Afghanistan, these problems will severely stretch...
Moscow Move Heralds No Grand Strategy
There are many conflicting views why Russia has returned to Afghanistan, more as an ally of Taliban rather than a partner of the coalition government of Afghanistan in seeking peace and stability. Within the Afghanistan establishment, there is a strong negative reaction, criticizing the rationale of holding a trilateral meeting (with China & Pakistan) in Moscow on Afghanistan on December 27. Though the meeting did not include any party from Afghanistan, it was viewed as "alarming" and anti Afghan "interference in the internal affairs of Afghanistan". The Afghan Government spokesperson lamented the exclusion of Afghanistan and slammed the meet saying how could it facilitate an Afghan solution. “MOFA spokesperson said, "We are worried about what the reasons behind the meeting are and want the relevant parties to explain.” Seemingly, the said move was caused by the on-going geostrategic developments impacting China, Pakistan and Russia. The meeting was not designed to formulate a grand strategy to firm up support for Taliban who have been in contact with Russia and China for sometime now. Also, three countries had met twice already and discussed Afghanistan. In the wake of a change in the US administration and the ground reality that despite repeated attempts by the international community failed to effect political reconciliation, the attempt by three nuclear countries bordering Afghanistan was to explore how to bring the parties to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, Russia is also supporting Iran’s entry into the relatively new process. Tehran has been Moscow’s ally in the fight against IS in Syria. In a separate troika, Russia, Iran and Turkey reaffirmed “their determination to jointly fight the IS”. Some statements from Russian officials generated misgivings. For instance Ambassador Zamir Kabulov, Russia’s top Afghanistan hand, expressed concern over a long-term U.S. military presence in the region, stating that there is no “clear-cut answer” as to why the...
Pakistan, India, and Kashmir
The House of Commons debate on Kashmir and the resulting motion in which Indian excesses on the Line of Control were noted, dialogue between the Pakistan and India for the resolution of the Kashmir dispute was encouraged and the Kashmiri right to self determination according to the United States Security Council resolution was reiterated is indeed a diplomatic victory for Pakistan. This message coming from the United Kingdom’s parliament is a significant rebuke for India, which has felt that it can continue to deny the Kashmiri people their basic rights with impunity. Indeed, as the violence following the killing of BurhanWani showed India, even if governmental apathy to Indian actions continues to exist in the international stage, its actions would not go unnoticed in the foreign media. And it was precisely this fear that drove India to engage in bellicosity in Pakistan, as it shifted focus away from Kashmir through its war mongering rhetoric. Now that those tensions, precipitated by the Uri attack, have simmered down, the signal by the UK House of Commons has come at an opportune moment. Perhaps, this would put the necessary international pressure on India to consider the possibility of dialogue with Pakistan, which it has rejected repeatedly despite Pakistan’s insistence on numerous occasions. However, the signal from the UK House of Commons must not be taken as something that it is not. It is a diplomatic victory for putting outside pressure on India to bring it to the negotiating table, but it is nowhere near sufficient to guarantee that India budges from its present position on the dispute, let alone compel India for talks. In any case, it must not be forgotten that no foreign power can solve the Kashmir dispute for India and Pakistan. At most, it can act as a mediator. And at the moment no one seems willing to embroil themselves in a dispute that has very slim chances of getting resolved. Hence, the initiative needs to come from the two countries in which...
What to Watch? Key issues to follow in Afghanistan in 2017
As in most years, the feeling in January 2017 is that this will be another crucial year for Afghanistan. The AAN team has identified several key themes that we think it important to follow this year. They range from crises in the Afghan government and how changes in global politics, particularly the change of administration in Washington, will affect governance and peace efforts in Afghanistan, to the Afghan government’s efforts in the field of basic rights and freedoms for all and, of course, migration, both Afghans leaving and returning. The list of issues reflects the worry that, in 2017, Afghanistan will be left increasingly alone to sort out its old and new challenges, despite commitments of continued international support. Key issues to watch in 2017: Internal crisis in the government The Afghan government has been in a state of relatively stable crisis. The set-up of the National Unity Government (NUG) and its complex power-sharing arrangements has paralysed governance in Afghanistan and this is likely to continue with several ongoing crises flaring up again in 2017. 2016 saw several attempts to reorganise the power-sharing arrangement, most recently through the removal of ministers by parliament (which has not yet been accepted by the executive); the negotiations between Balkh provincial governor and chairman of Jamiat-e Islami’s Executive Council Atta Muhammad Nur and the President Ashraf Ghani (which has, by design, undermined the position of Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah); the uproar around the alleged attack on former governor of Jowzjan Ahmad Ishchi by, or on the order of, Vice-President Abdul Rashid Dostum; and Hezb-e Islami’s demands for a greater share in power after its September 2016 peace agreement with the government. For now, there seems to be a lull in the various negotiations, as the various actors wait to see how the United States administration will pan out and what that will mean for their relative positions. The legality of the NUG,...
Sabawoon Showcase: Online Businesses and Jobs Opportunities
January 25, 2016, Peshawar: The latest episode of Sabawoon[i], flagship radio program of Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), discussed the online businesses and employment opportunities for youth in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The key points of discussion included the free lancing, web-based and telephonic jobs, virtual assistant and online service requirements, importance of social media in products and services marketing, social innovation and its impact on traditional businesses, and effects of globalization and technological development on businesses. Furthermore, the program highlighted on the trainings and capacity building programs offered by KP and federal government for the youth in KP and FATA and significance of business studies and entrepreneurship for creating business environment in the region. The program was aired under the theme of Jwandai Jazbey (living spirits) on Wednesday. Mr. Muhammad Ilyas, social activist and student of entrepreneurship studies at the Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, was the studio guest. A radio report shed light on the input of female entrepreneurs and experts in KP. Three callers took part live in the program. They urged the government and educational institutions to spread awareness about online businesses and jobs. Mr. Ilyas, observed: “There are many web based platforms where one can offer his/her services online for a wide range of companies and can earn money. Our educational institutions should impart such skills to the students so that instead of looking only for Pakistan-based jobs they can also offer their services to foreign companies while being in Pakistan.” Sabawoon airs Monday through Thursday on FM-101.5 Peshawar & DI Khan 711 KHZ from 3:20 PM to 4:00 PM. [i] Sabawoon is a flagship radio program by CRSS in the KP/FATA region, designed to highlight local issues, and promote fundamental global values such as women’s rights, rule...
Iran keen to join CPEC, says envoy
Iran on Thursday reiterated its desire to join the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and offered to commit its ‘full potential’ for the mega regional connectivity project. “Iran is eager to join CPEC with its full capabilities, possibilities and abilities,” Iran’s Ambassador Mehdi Honardoost said while speaking at the Oxbridge Lecture here. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani first expressed interest in joining the CPEC during his meeting with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in September last year. China welcomed Iran’s interest and its envoy in Islamabad Sun Weidong has said that his country is awaiting Iranian inclusion in the project. Pakistan too has described it as a “good step”. However, analysts fear that progress towards embracing Iran was being impeded by Pakistani concerns about Tehran’s close association with India and Saudi Arabia’s apprehensions about Iranian involvement in the project. Mr Honardoost, while responding to a question, acknowledged that Pak-Iran ties were not at the “best point”. He attributed the problems to an ‘external element’ affecting the relationship and the two neighbours not fully comprehending each other’s point of view due to lack of information. “We expect Pakistan to move forward. Trade should not be affected by other developments,” he said in a general comment. The envoy, who candidly responded to several queries, parried a question about how Iran planned to collaborate in CPEC, while having partnership with India that is not only opposed to the project, but is believed to be involved in sabotaging it. “It is not important if some country is not keen to join it,” he observed almost downplaying New Delhi’s opposition. Iran, he stressed, could contribute significantly to CPEC. He said Iran’s rich energy resources, well-developed transport infrastructure, and progress in other fields, including nanotechnology, would add to CPEC once it joins it. Moreover, Mr Honardoost...
Afghanistan: The risk of forgetting
As Afghanistan is falling off the global agenda the security situation there is continuing to deteriorate. This presents two key concerns for the international community – that once again the country could become a haven for extremism through Daesh and that huge numbers of Afghans may continue to become displaced and leave to become migrants. British Council policy analyst Elizabeth Cameron, who has worked in the country for several years, argues that it needs a renewed focus from Western policymakers. Most Afghans celebrate their birthdays on January 1st. After the fall of the Taliban in 2001, international NGOs, agencies and armies entered to try and stabilise the country; bringing with them job opportunities and governance reforms. To apply for these jobs Afghans needed a date of birth - something that went largely unrecorded in the turbulence of the past - and what date is easier to remember than New Year’s Day? But this New Year, Afghanistan itself is struggling to be remembered. It has gradually fallen off the international agenda since entering a supposed ‘decade of transformation’ following its political, military, and economic transition in 2014. International governments hoped this transformation would bring it greater self-reliance after Presidential elections and the withdrawal of most international forces and much foreign aid. Journalists have moved on, the news and political agendas overtaken by other crises - not least in Syria. The once busy schedule of Afghanistan-based discussion events in western capitals has almost evaporated. Yet the conflict in Afghanistan continues and insecurity is increasing. Coalition troops, scheduled to be pulled out by the end of 2014, quietly remained, though reduced in numbers and with an ‘assist and advise’ role. The UK took on the responsibility of leading the training at the Afghan National Army Officer Academy, which has trained more than 1,300 graduates. This year, amidst a worsening security situation,...
Afghan Weekly (Jan 20 – Jan 26, 2017)
This week on January 20, Donald John Trump was sworn in as the 45th President of the United States of America. Donald Trump cautiously did not give any roadmap for the Afghanistan challenge or make any other significant mention in his campaign except for a telephonic conversation with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani earlier in December 2016. Trump had vowed to help unearth Afghanistan’s massive natural resources which include some of the world’s rare earth elements. He had also pledged support to review Kabul’s requirements in security related issues and assist the Afghan government accordingly. Afghanistan’s Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah welcomed Donald Trump’s commitment made to the US forces based in Afghanistan. The Chief Executive further added that he is hopeful that the relations and cooperation between the two countries will further enhance under the administration of President Trump.[1] Meanwhile, Taliban also responded to the power change in United States. The group has asked President Donald Trump to review the Afghanistan policy and not to follow the previous approaches. In a statement released following the US presidential inauguration, Taliban said the violence in Afghanistan will continue if the Trump administration continued to follow the approaches of the previous US administrations led by Barack Obama and George Bush. The Taliban have called on President Donald Trump to withdraw US forces from the Afghan morass.[2] The statement by the Taliban came as the Trump administration has still not unveiled its policy in Afghanistan so far. On the contrary, recognizing Trump’s different perspective on Russia, the former Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said that the US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin must work together on Afghanistan for peace and regional stability. Amid rapidly changing developments, Islamabad is preparing for tough talks with Kabul in the upcoming General Qamar Bajwa’s visit to Afghanistan soon; the...
Women, Peace, and Security: Afghanistan-Pakistan Women’s Policy Brief
The Pakistan-Afghan Women’s Forum for Peace and Democracy (PAWFPD) was established in 2012 to enhance cross-border cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This initiative engages and empowers women from both countries to participate in processes that help to build peace in the region. In October 2015, the United Nations Security Council convened a High-level Review to assess 15 years of progress at the global, regional and national levels on resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security. Through the Afghanistan- Pakistan Women Policy Brief, PAWFPD will build on the review of this document and utilize it as an opportunity to gather women’s perspectives on solutions to security issues in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The policy brief will seek to assist decision-makers navigate similar security issues facing Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as provide guidance to the respective governments. Since 2001, militancy and terrorism have grown in Afghanistan and Pakistan destabilizing all socio-political and economic efforts at bringing stability and prosperity to both countries and the region. To prevent the rise in escalation of violence and ultimately bring an end to the conflict, the Afghan government launched a peace process engaging the Taliban in 2010. In Pakistan, talks with Taliban militants in 2014 failed because of intransigent attitudes and unacceptable demands by the latter. The military then launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb in June 2014, mostly targeting militant hideouts in North Waziristan. As a reaction, the militants attacked the Army Public School in Peshawar, claiming the lives of 144 school-children. This gruesome attack galvanized the civilian-military leadership and, as a result, the counter-terror National Action Plan with preemptive, prevention and punitive elements were adopted. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan are trying to bring forth a political solution in tandem with military efforts in tackling terrorism and bringing peace to the border region....
Security Sector Reform: Long Overdue in Afghanistan
More than 38 people were killed in twin bombings in Kabul. Another blast in Kandahar claimed at least seven lives and injured over a dozen, including the United Arab Emirates’ ambassador, who was visiting the city to inaugurate multiple projects. Afghanistan’s failure to bring reform to its security apparatus has been central to the continuation of unabated and enduring violence in the country. In 2016 alone, Afghan security forces lost more than 15,000 personnel in battle and more than 1,600 Afghan civilians were killed. At the leadership positions from the beginning of the new government, commanders have often integrated their ethnic militias into the Afghan National Army (ANA), Afghan National Police (ANP), and National Directorate of Security (NDS). An overwhelming number of ANA and ANP officers are ethnic Tajik former Jamiat-e-Islami militias and represented disproportionately. Even though there is a policy in place to represent all ethnicities proportionately, the criteria is fulfilled by the rank and file. Men lacking even high school degrees rose to the highest military ranks overnight. Afghanistan today has nearly 1,000 generals, more than the U.S. active duty military — the strongest military in the world. A staggering number of those generals have acquired these ranks through ethnic or family patronage. Each one of these generals has dozens of bodyguards and great compensation and logistical needs, sucking a great sum of resources from the national budget. Since its invasion in 2001, the United States alone has spent more than $64 billion in building up Afghanistan, including its police and military. Yet all of that has not bought the Afghans sustainable security institutions. The Afghan Air Force still runs on a few dysfunctional helicopters. Afghan security forces are struggling on, all owing to a lack of good leadership, coordination, and widespread corruption. Leaders of the security forces, former Northern Alliance militia, have never received...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.