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Afghanistan Weekly Field Report | 22 to 28 January 2017
The total number of individuals displaced by conflict in 2016 has risen to 636,503, as joint teams continue to finalise assessments of those displaced last year. In 2017 so far, 2,864 individuals have been verified as displaced. Around 42 per cent are located in hard to access areas. Northern/North Eastern: Military operations including airstrikes in areas surrounding Kunduz city continued for the sixth consecutive week, with 1,470 individuals displaced in 2016 (located hitherto in inaccessible areas) verified in the past week. In Faryab, 455 IDPs were verified in Maimana city. In 2017 so far, over 1,114 verified IDPs have been displaced from the Northern/North Eastern region; approximately 39 per cent of the country total. Central: Following military operations in Kapisa, 1,288 IDPs have been verified in Tagab district, with a reported further 281 unverified IDPs in Kabul to be assessed next week. In Kabul, undocumented returnees from Pakistan continue to arrive, with 826 individuals verified in the past week. Southern: The overall security situation remained static in Uruzgan, Hilmand and Zabul, with NSAG maintaining frontline positions. In Uruzgan, 3,206 individuals displaced in 2016 were verified in Tirin Kot. In Qalat district, Zabul, heavy rains destroyed homes, with 231 individuals affected. Assessments for rain-affected families in Kandahar is ongoing. In 2017 so far, 1,211 verified individuals have been displaced from the south; around 42 per cent of the country total. Eastern: Military operations including airstrikes continued in Nangarhar, Laghman, Kunar and Nuristan. While there were no new reports of displacements, local officials in Nuristan raised concerns about the deteriorating security situation. Western: The security situation in the Western provinces remains unstable, with reports of small numbers of displacements. In Hirat city, 63 individuals were verified displaced from Jawand district in Badghis, and 35 individuals from Sangin in Hilmand....
Fourth Generation War and The Intelligence Arm
In the evolving security paradigm across the world, intelligence arm has assumed the role of an important component in statecraft. Their tasking however vary in accordance with the political system in place. In mature democracies the input of these organizations is considered with utmost seriousness especially in matters relating to national security. With nuclear weapons on their inventory, the belligerent countries now mostly resort to soft power to subdue the opponents and further their national interests. Soft power application in the fourth generation war primarily by the intelligence organizations is now considered as the main effort in executing state policies. It will not be out of place to say that in the current environment the intelligence arm forms truly the first line of defense. Pakistan's premier intelligence agency, ISI, rose to prominence as a consequence of international response against Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in 1979. Becoming a front line state, courtesy its geography, Pakistan found itself in the eye of a storm and the next in line of Soviet expansionist designs. Financially supported by the US and gulf countries the entire resistance movement was operationalized and managed by ISI that ultimately led to the defeat and subsequent break up of Soviet Union in 1989. Thence onwards this agency remained close to the hearts and minds of both its enemies and friends alike. With Kashmir still remaining as unfinished agenda of Partition, Pakistan perpetually remains under constant Indian covert and overt threat. The very recent open overtures by Indian National Security Advisor Mr. Ajit Doval to unleash its fourth generation offensive against Pakistan compels the country to remain prepared and alert on all fronts keeping its intelligence capability at all times ready. With turmoil in Afghanistan in its 16th year and hardly any hope for improvement in situation visible, Pakistan continues to suffer its direct fallout especially on internal...
Afghanistan: Perceptions
No country can exist in isolation in the age of globalisation. It has to prioritise its own interests and engage accordingly with other countries. Due to its strategic location, weak economy and decades-long rivalries with a strong neighbour, Pakistan needs cordial relations with its neighbours and other countries in the periphery. Being a superpower, the US has special importance for Pakistan. Similarly, the importance of Iran and Russia cannot be ignored. China, a rising power, has not only been a strategic friend but has also become an economic partner. India – a historical foe and one of the largest countries in South Asia – also has to be on our priority list. However, Afghanistan – which is, comparatively, a weak and poor neighbour – is of greater importance to Pakistan. The reasons for building stronger ties with Afghanistan are manifold. First, both countries have strong social, political and strategic links. Pakistan’s stability therefore depends on stability in Afghanistan. Second, the West views Pakistan within the context of Afghanistan. Third, Afghanistan’s situation directly affects and defines Islamabad’s relation with the US, Russia, China, India and Iran. Fourth, Pakistan has involved itself for many decades in Afghanistan and made a social and political investment that no other country can match up to. The decade-long instability in Afghanistan and its impact on Pakistan has compelled me to explore and understand the situation in Afghanistan. I have travelled extensively to Afghanistan in my quest to develop a stronger understanding on the subject. From time to time, I have reported, written and used my TV show to highlight Afghanistan’s crises with the hope of resolving them and bringing the two countries closer. I paid a huge cost, both mentally and physically, for pursuing this aim and was even arrested by the Taliban in 1998. At this crucial stage, when relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have touched the lowest ebb, I consider it...
Sabawoon Showcase: Effects of Militancy on Hospitality and Hujra Culture
January 26, 2017, Peshawar: The topic of the latest episode of Sabawoon, the flagship radio program of the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), was hospitality and Hujra culture and the negative impacts of militancy on this phenomenon. Other points of discussion included the distinct features of Pashtun culture, history of Pashtun literature, negative impacts of social media on cultural values and norms, lack of awareness among youth about their own culture, and the role of teachers and elders in revival of Hujra and hospitality culture. The show was aired under the theme of Ranra (light) on Thursday. Mr. Zaryab Yousafzai, a PhD Scholar and Lecturer at the Islamia College University Peshawar, was the studio guest. Mr. Yousafzai said: “Hospitality is one of the prominent characteristics of Pashtuns living all over the world, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan. We can inculcate our cultural traits in the young generation and make them aware about the advancement in the world through proper education.” A radio report highlighted the significance of Hujra and hospitality in Pashtun culture and the consequences of extremism for this tradition. Five callers participated live in the show. They discussed the subject from various angles and shared their views about the importance of Hujra and hospitality. About Sabawoon Sabawoon airs in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Federally Administered Tribal Areas. It is designed to highlight the local issues and promote the fundamental governance values, such as democracy, rule of law, women’s rights, and equal citizenry. The show airs Monday through Thursday every week under four themes on FM-101.5 Peshawar and Dera Ismail Khan 711 KHZ from 3:20 PM to 4:00 PM. On Monday, Jarga Maraka covers current affairs and important regional issues along with input from the government and other senior officials. On Tuesday, Da Simay Jaaj gives an overview of the top stories from KP and FATA regions. Jwandai Jazbey airs on Wednesday and...
CHINA WATCH [JANUARY 24-30] IRAN KEEN ON RELATIONS WITH PAKISTAN
Iran’s efforts to become part of China-Pakistan initiatives for cooperation and development was the top news of this week. A group of different political parties and civil society organizations has opposed the meeting of All Parties Conference (APC) on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A top Iranian official has hinted at the formation of four-nation alliance against the backdrop of regional and international developments. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has devised a plan to prevent the misuse of duty and tax concessions granted on import of goods for the CPEC projects. A top military official has sought that the fiber optic cables be laid down along the CPEC route for the security reasons. Iran’s Interest in CPEC: Iran has reiterated its interest in joining the CPEC. The country’s envoy to Islamabad, Mehdi Honordoost, said “Iran is ready to join CPEC with full capabilities, possibilities and abilities.”[1] He reckoned that Iran’s rich energy resources, well developed transport infrastructure and progress in other fields would contribute to the functioning of the corridor. As for Tehran’s amity with New Delhi – a country that has categorically opposed CPEC – is concerned, Honordoost downplayed this factor and noted that “[I]t is not important if some country is not keen to join it.” It is not the first time Iran has shown keen interest to be part of this multi-billion project. In September last, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani had expressed the desire to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. China also had also welcomed Iran’s interest. However, Pakistan seems to be dragging its feet on all of Iran’s positive postures. Islamabad has been wary of Iran’s relations with India and has shown greater inclination towards Saudi Arabia – a staunch rival of Iran. Hence, in the foreseeable future, there is a lesser prospect for Iran’s joining the project. APC Opposed: A group of different political parties and civil society organizations, Corridor Front, has...
Job Opening: Project Coordinator – Pakistan Center for Excellence (PACE)
A project coordinator position for PACE, the flagship initiative from the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) has opened up. Pakistan Center of Excellence (PACE) is a major CVE project by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) designed to trigger critical thinking through a discourse anchored in fundamental global values such as socio-political diversity, acceptance of diversity, rule of law and equal citizenry, as well as the rights afforded within Pakistan’s Constitution (articles 8-28). This landmark project is running with the support of the government of Netherlands. The goal of PACE is to create a critical mass of young leaders equipped with critical/analytical skills to critically analyze issues, look at others as equal citizens, correct misperceptions about non-Muslims, and ask questions about their perceived reality. PACE will promote a socio-political discourse – the alternate narrative on democratic rights and responsibilities anchored in the globally accepted and practiced concepts such as rule of law, equal citizenry, secular governance as a primary condition for social cohesion and tolerance for, and acceptance of cultural diversity. Achieve Informed Message Multiplication: As part of this it, PACE hopes to mount a politically informed intellectual challenge to those exploiting religion through their narrow interpretations of faith. This would primarily be achieved through a structured interactive engagement with the selected cadre of young working professionals drawn from all over Pakistan – persons who are potential opinion multipliers, such as television anchors, radio jockeys and university professors and lecturers. Reconnect with Constitution - Empowerment Through Rule of Law: The initiative will attempt to reconnect people with the constitution of Pakistan and the fundamental human rights afforded therein (article 8-28). It will sensitize these participants on the virtues of universally acknowledged democratic values...
Return of Afghan Refugees to Afghanistan Surges as Country Copes to Rebuild
This is seriously aggravating the government's capacity to absorb refugees in an already difficult environment of high unemployment and internally displaced people after decades of conflict. While the Afghan government works to strengthen internal coordination and strategic planning, the international community also needs to play a vital role in providing financial and humanitarian support to avert a crisis and limit the damage to Afghanistan’s already challenging social and security conditions, and development prospects. From trickle to flood Aid officials estimate that more than 700,000 refugees returned to Afghanistan in 2016. Afghans—the second largest refugee group after Syrians, according to the UN’s refugee agency—are primarily returning from Pakistan, often not voluntarily. There are also returnees from Iran and to a lesser extent from Europe. Analysts project that up to 2½ million will follow over the next 18 months, which will add nearly 10 percent to Afghanistan’s population (see infographic below). To put this in perspective, this would be akin to 50 million migrants entering the European Union over a two-year period. Many of the Afghans who lived abroad for decades are returning to a country facing conflict, insecurity, and widespread poverty. Given the difficult economic climate, prospects for returnees are generally poor. While there are also wealthier returnees, a typical returning refugee has a high risk of falling into poverty—they are typically laborers and workers in the informal economy with limited savings, or small business owners who are forced to liquidate their assets at fire sale prices. Moreover, the prospects for absorbing returning refugees are further complicated by the existence of more than one million internally displaced people, the number of which significantly increased in 2016 as the insurgency intensified. Together with the large number of people who already live in poverty in Afghanistan, these problems will severely stretch...
Moscow Move Heralds No Grand Strategy
There are many conflicting views why Russia has returned to Afghanistan, more as an ally of Taliban rather than a partner of the coalition government of Afghanistan in seeking peace and stability. Within the Afghanistan establishment, there is a strong negative reaction, criticizing the rationale of holding a trilateral meeting (with China & Pakistan) in Moscow on Afghanistan on December 27. Though the meeting did not include any party from Afghanistan, it was viewed as "alarming" and anti Afghan "interference in the internal affairs of Afghanistan". The Afghan Government spokesperson lamented the exclusion of Afghanistan and slammed the meet saying how could it facilitate an Afghan solution. “MOFA spokesperson said, "We are worried about what the reasons behind the meeting are and want the relevant parties to explain.” Seemingly, the said move was caused by the on-going geostrategic developments impacting China, Pakistan and Russia. The meeting was not designed to formulate a grand strategy to firm up support for Taliban who have been in contact with Russia and China for sometime now. Also, three countries had met twice already and discussed Afghanistan. In the wake of a change in the US administration and the ground reality that despite repeated attempts by the international community failed to effect political reconciliation, the attempt by three nuclear countries bordering Afghanistan was to explore how to bring the parties to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, Russia is also supporting Iran’s entry into the relatively new process. Tehran has been Moscow’s ally in the fight against IS in Syria. In a separate troika, Russia, Iran and Turkey reaffirmed “their determination to jointly fight the IS”. Some statements from Russian officials generated misgivings. For instance Ambassador Zamir Kabulov, Russia’s top Afghanistan hand, expressed concern over a long-term U.S. military presence in the region, stating that there is no “clear-cut answer” as to why the...
Pakistan, India, and Kashmir
The House of Commons debate on Kashmir and the resulting motion in which Indian excesses on the Line of Control were noted, dialogue between the Pakistan and India for the resolution of the Kashmir dispute was encouraged and the Kashmiri right to self determination according to the United States Security Council resolution was reiterated is indeed a diplomatic victory for Pakistan. This message coming from the United Kingdom’s parliament is a significant rebuke for India, which has felt that it can continue to deny the Kashmiri people their basic rights with impunity. Indeed, as the violence following the killing of BurhanWani showed India, even if governmental apathy to Indian actions continues to exist in the international stage, its actions would not go unnoticed in the foreign media. And it was precisely this fear that drove India to engage in bellicosity in Pakistan, as it shifted focus away from Kashmir through its war mongering rhetoric. Now that those tensions, precipitated by the Uri attack, have simmered down, the signal by the UK House of Commons has come at an opportune moment. Perhaps, this would put the necessary international pressure on India to consider the possibility of dialogue with Pakistan, which it has rejected repeatedly despite Pakistan’s insistence on numerous occasions. However, the signal from the UK House of Commons must not be taken as something that it is not. It is a diplomatic victory for putting outside pressure on India to bring it to the negotiating table, but it is nowhere near sufficient to guarantee that India budges from its present position on the dispute, let alone compel India for talks. In any case, it must not be forgotten that no foreign power can solve the Kashmir dispute for India and Pakistan. At most, it can act as a mediator. And at the moment no one seems willing to embroil themselves in a dispute that has very slim chances of getting resolved. Hence, the initiative needs to come from the two countries in which...
What to Watch? Key issues to follow in Afghanistan in 2017
As in most years, the feeling in January 2017 is that this will be another crucial year for Afghanistan. The AAN team has identified several key themes that we think it important to follow this year. They range from crises in the Afghan government and how changes in global politics, particularly the change of administration in Washington, will affect governance and peace efforts in Afghanistan, to the Afghan government’s efforts in the field of basic rights and freedoms for all and, of course, migration, both Afghans leaving and returning. The list of issues reflects the worry that, in 2017, Afghanistan will be left increasingly alone to sort out its old and new challenges, despite commitments of continued international support. Key issues to watch in 2017: Internal crisis in the government The Afghan government has been in a state of relatively stable crisis. The set-up of the National Unity Government (NUG) and its complex power-sharing arrangements has paralysed governance in Afghanistan and this is likely to continue with several ongoing crises flaring up again in 2017. 2016 saw several attempts to reorganise the power-sharing arrangement, most recently through the removal of ministers by parliament (which has not yet been accepted by the executive); the negotiations between Balkh provincial governor and chairman of Jamiat-e Islami’s Executive Council Atta Muhammad Nur and the President Ashraf Ghani (which has, by design, undermined the position of Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah); the uproar around the alleged attack on former governor of Jowzjan Ahmad Ishchi by, or on the order of, Vice-President Abdul Rashid Dostum; and Hezb-e Islami’s demands for a greater share in power after its September 2016 peace agreement with the government. For now, there seems to be a lull in the various negotiations, as the various actors wait to see how the United States administration will pan out and what that will mean for their relative positions. The legality of the NUG,...
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TESTIMONIALS
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.