Current Projects
Afghan Exodus: Afghan asylum seekers in Europe (1) – the changing situation
In 2016, Afghans remained the second-largest group both of migrants seeking protection in Europe and of those formally applying for asylum. Meanwhile, numbers of arrivals – both in general and in terms of Afghans – have dropped significantly, compared with the peak in late 2015, as European countries have since made getting, staying and integrating there more complicated. Numbers of asylum applications widely differed between European countries. Furthermore, the EU and individual member states put agreements in place with the Afghan government that allow “voluntary” and “enforced” returns of larger numbers of rejected asylum seekers. In this first part of a three-part dispatch, AAN’s co-director Thomas Ruttig looks at the latest figures and trends as well as changes in policy and social climate that impacted the situation for Afghan asylum seekers in Europe. This will be followed by an overview of the situation in a number of individual European countries (part 2) and a case study on Germany, the largest recipient country in Europe for refugees (part 3). The last part will also draw some conclusions. Overall figures The overall number of arriving migrants in Europe has dropped sharply in 2016. Arrivals from non-European countries of origin to Europe – ie the 28 EU member-countries (including brexiting UK) plus the four non-members (Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein) – decreased from the 1,015,000 in the peak year of 2015 to close to over 362,000 in 2016, ie by two thirds. (These UNHCR figures – see a daily update here – only count those arriving across the Mediterranean, which is by far the most important entry route. There are no statistics about other routes where much smaller numbers of migrants can be assumed, for example through Russia.) Of these first time applicants from all countries of origin, Germany registered just under 63 per cent, almost the same percentage as in 2015 (more detail in part 3). It was followed by Sweden (11.8 per cent),...
CHINA WATCH [FEBRUARY 7- 13] CHINA BLOCKS MOVE AGAINST AZHAR
China blocked the move at the United Nations (UN) to sanction the head of Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), Masood Azhar. Pakistan has said that it supports China on all the major issues and opposes any attempt to undermine its sovereignty. The Senate Standing Committee on Communications raised the issue of the western route of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Around twelve energy generation projects will be completed by the end of 2018 under the early harvest projects of CPEC. Pakistan has decided to take a loan of $600 million from China. Beijing has revealed its plan of investing $24.8 billion to develop a highway network in its Xinjiang region for the purpose of improved connectivity with Pakistan. Three of China’s warships are part of the Pakistan Navy-led international exercise Aman-17 being held in the Arabian Sea. China Blocks Move against Azhar: China yet again blocked the move at the UN to sanction the head of Pakistan-based JeM, Masood Azhar.[1] The move was initiated by the United States and supported by the United Kingdom and France as an effort to show solidarity with India.[2] New Delhi has accused JeM and its leader of carrying out attacks on Indian territory and consequently ramped up its efforts to get the Azhar banned by the UN. However, China, most probably at the behest of Pakistan, has foiled the move time again. The move can remain in place for six months – extendable to three months – and can be converted into a block to dismiss the proposal altogether. In a protest against Beijing’s move, New Delhi soon issued a demarche to China.[3] Though China’s action has been primarily motivated by friendship with Pakistan, the efforts to protect the leader of a militant group have confounded analysts and world leaders. Support against Separatists: Pakistan has said that it supports China on all the major issues and opposes any attempt to undermine its sovereignty.[4] The assurance for support was made in a meeting between Special...
Sabawoon Showcase – February 09, 2017
Celebration of National Women’s Day in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The latest episode of Ranra (light) discussed the significance of National Women’s Day (NWD) and its celebrations in KP. Other points of discussion included contributions of women to socio-economic development, female rights and responsibilities, Swara, domestic violence, sexual harassment, early child marriages, lack of education, political and social awareness among women, and female entrepreneurships in KP. Moreover, the program also highlighted different challenges faced by the women in society. Two Peshawar based social activists, Ms. Saima Inayat and Mr. Maqsood Anwar, were the in-studio guests. Ms. Inayat said: “NWD is observed with an aim to show respect to women and highlight their valuable contributions. We need to educate our sisters in rural areas on priority basis about their rights given the rise in the cases of honor killings, domestic violence, Swara, and child marriages.” Mr. Maqsood said: “There is a lack of education and the religious and cultural limitations don’t allow a woman to live her life according to her own will. Though Islam stresses upon equal rights of both male and female, unfortunately religion is misinterpreted by some so-called religious clerics thus denying the women their basic rights.” A radio report shed light on the celebration of NWD in different parts of KP and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Two listeners participated live in the program. They discussed the importance of women’s participation in different walks of life and urged government to improve female education in FATA. About Sabawoon Sabawoon airs in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). It is designed to highlight the local issues and promote the fundamental governance values, such as democracy, rule of law, women’s rights, and equal citizenry. The show airs Monday through Thursday every week under four themes on FM-101.5 Peshawar and Dera Ismail Khan 711...
Afghanistan: An Area of Rivalry
As India tiptoes toward the six-nation conference on Afghanistan in Moscow on Wednesday — comprising Russia, China, India, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan — a new process is beginning with regard to regional security. Quintessentially, a novel regional format is in the making. Kabul's participation in such a process will give it added international legitimacy. However, issues remain, which can be put into three clusters. At the most obvious level, it needs to be understood at the outset that India happens to be the odd man out in this proposed regional format. India is not quite there where the rest of the grouping has reached as regards perceptions regarding Taliban. The regional consensus — as indeed international consensus — is that Taliban's reconciliation, being an Afghan entity, is the key to an enduring settlement. Also, there is consensus that the prolongation of the war makes no sense, and the stalemate cannot be broken except through political means. All the other five countries participating in the Moscow meet maintain contacts with the Taliban in one way or another and they are willing to acknowledge it, too. India, therefore, needs a reality check: How long can it bury the head in the sand and insist on the imperative of waging a robust war against the Taliban when others tend to see the conflict more as fratricidal strife? Second, there is no gainsaying the fact that Pakistan has a key role to play in an enduring Afghan settlement. Even Iran, which has been at loggerheads with Pakistan over the Afghan situation, has harmonised its stance with Pakistan. Again, India is a solitary exception. From the second half of the nineties, India began viewing the Afghan situation in zero sum terms - although Taliban or the al-Qaeda operating out of Afghanistan — never perpetrated terrorist acts on Indian soil. Suffice it to say, India-Pakistan tensions today have become a significant complicating factor in reaching an Afghan settlement, and, arguably, that could...
Sabawoon Showcase – February 08, 2017
Raffia Qaseem Baig; The First Ever Lady Constable in Pakistan to Serve in the Bomb Disposal Unit (BDU) The latest episode of Jwandai Jazbey (living spirits) featured the first ever lady constable in Pakistan serving in the BDU of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Police, Ms. Raffia Qaseem Baig. Ms. Baig said that she always had a great passion for joining air force, army or police. She preferred to join the KP Police in 2010 despite the availability of other opportunities. Being part of KP police, she has offered her services for the BDU, one of the riskiest units of policing. She said: “The inspiration behind joining the BDU of KP police was an incident that happened to me few years back. While I was taking a medical test as a requirement of recruitment process, a bomb went off causing many casualties and deaths. My mother got very scared. She advised me not to join the police but I told her that death is an unavoidable fact. One should believe in Allah only and offer services to bring a positive change in the society.” She discussed her experiences about the capacity building initiatives in KP Police. She said: “I have received the best training in police training school recently inaugurated by KP Police. I was really excited to see the training of how to manage the long range machine gun, anti-person mine, anti-tank mine, hand grenade, suicide bomb jackets etc. I learnt about explosives i.e. Trinitrotoluene (TNT), detonators, prim-cord etc. I am proud as a female for participating side by side with my male colleagues in every operation we have conducted so far.” She added that even if her physique was not so much suitable for working in BDU, she was still motivated enough to sacrifice her life for the sake of public safety. She recalled that once she visited the crime scene when a bomb went off on Warsak Road. Many people were astonished to see I didn’t have the special dress for disposing bomb. The reason is weight of the dress which is 75 kg and it is hard for a 50 Kg...
Hekmatyar taken off UN sanctions list: Paving the way for his return – and Hezb-e Islami’s reunification?
The United Nations has lifted the sanctions against Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the leader of the Islamic Party of Afghanistan. This was the next step in the implementation of the peace agreement signed by the Afghan government and Hezb in September 2016. It paves the way for the return of the former mujahedin leader, one of the most contentious figures in recent Afghan history – a hero of the jihad according to supporters, a war criminal according to detractors. AAN’s co-director Thomas Ruttig follows up on earlier AAN analysis of the peace agreement, looks at what happens next and possible implications for Hekmatyar’s party (with input from Kate Clark, Fazal Muzhary and Ehsan Qaane). Over four months after the peace deal between the Afghan government and Hezb-e Islami was signed by President Ashraf Ghani and Hezb leader (amir) Gulbuddin Hekmatyar (who was not personally present but brought in via video link), the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has taken Hekmatyar off its sanctions list. A press release about this measure was published on 3 February 2017 (see the full text in the annex to this dispatch). Without it, the government would have been obliged to detain Hekmatyar if he came to Kabul openly. In the September 2016 agreement with Hezb-e Islami Afghanistan (HIA, Islamic Party of Afghanistan), the Afghan government had committed to take measures that would remove “all sanctions” against the leadership and members of Hezb as a prerequisite for its implementation. (Read earlier AAN analysis of the agreement and its possible repercussion. This stipulation in the agreement does not only refer to the now lifted UN sanctions. Hezb and/or Hekmatyar were also blacklisted by individual states and organisations such as the US, the UK and the European Union. (1) There have been no official statements, so far, by those sides on a changed status of Hezb or Hekmatyar. Until the agreement was signed, Hezb, after the Taleban, had been the second largest organisation...
Afghan Weekly (Feb 03 - Feb 09, 2017)
The peace measures in Afghanistan, most often prove to be in shadows, but the recent peace accord of Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin Hekmatyar with Afghan Government is being considered as a silver lining in the cloud. With these rapidly moving developments, different maneuvers to expedite the peace process are being employed by Russia, China, Pakistan and other regional and international actors. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Afghanistan now has been formally invited to another round due in mid-February in Moscow, where high level representatives from China, Iran, India and Pakistan will be present.[1] Lavrov made this announcement on February 07 in Moscow after talks with his visiting Afghan counterpart, Salahuddin Rabbani, revealing that most of these countries had already confirmed their participation. China, too, is engaging both the Afghan Government and Taliban for a settlement through dialogue. Deng Xijun, China’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, has said to the Afghan Government that negotiations with the Taliban is the only way forward. The Chinese envoy also said that during their talks with the Taliban they had encouraged them to do the same.[2] The internal actors and stakeholders in Afghanistan are disparately trying to impress upon their mantras for truce. The High Peace Council (HPC) has said that it has defined a new peace process strategy which they hope will influence Taliban insurgents to join peace negotiations with the Afghan Government. The new peace process strategy ought to be indigenous and will seek no involvement of others.[3] A somewhat similar notion was shared in a separate conference in Kabul which was organized by Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS). In the conference, former National Security Advisor Rangeen Dadfar Spanta told the participants that Afghanistan has to break away from the reliance on certain nations and work on new concepts.[4] A multipronged policy will help Afghanistan to be in more...
Sabawoon Showcase – February 07, 2017
Regional Review of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) The latest episode of Da Simay Jaaj (regional review) discussed several public issues such as education, health, sports, and developmental projects in different parts of KP. The show contained reports on: Problems faced by students of Government Primary School, Mohmand Agency, due to the lack of proper building and other basic facilities. The international skiing competition in Malam Jabba, Swat, organized by Pakistan Army to promote peace and tourism in the region. Upgradation of 17 government schools in Dera Ismail Khan District and the demand of local people to boost the literacy rate and increase the teachers’ attendance at schools. KP’s Governor, Mr. Iqbal Zafar Jhagra’s visit to North Waziristan Agency and announcement of developmental schemes for the region. The strike by Para Medical Association of Kohat District because of the non-payment of salaries since August 2016. Listeners’ Response: Three listeners from North Waziristan Agency shared their feedback in the show through live calls. They appreciated the initiation of developmental schemes but lamented that after the commencement, such projects were usually not covered by financial backing. They urged the government to ensure the sustainable working of these schemes in the long run. About Sabawoon Sabawoon airs in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). It is designed to highlight the local issues and promote the fundamental governance values, such as democracy, rule of law, women’s rights, and equal citizenry. The show airs Monday through Thursday every week under four themes on FM-101.5 Peshawar and Dera Ismail Khan 711 KHZ from 3:20 PM to 4:00 PM. On Monday, Jarga Maraka covers current affairs and important regional issues with an input from government and other senior officials. On Tuesday, Da Simay Jaaj gives an overview of the top stories from KP and FATA regions....
A NATO Rethink on Afghanistan?
Moscow invites the regional players to discuss peace mid-Feb Is a US-led NATO rethink on Afghanistan and Pakistan underway? Has the Indian policy of “isolating” Pakistan outlived its temporal utility following some immature moves by the Indian prime minister and the Afghan president? These critical questions flow from a flurry of some overt and covert high-profile foreign diplomatic visits to Islamabad between Jan 27 and Feb 7. They brought with them many questions, and wondered whether and what Pakistan can do to help revive the Afghan peace process, whether high-level changes in the Pakistani security establishment offer a window of opportunity for the Afghan peace talks, and will Pakistan tag along Russia and China to pursue the Afghan reconciliation process? Another big question emerging from the interactions with foreign dignitaries revolved around continued western support for the Afghan government; is unqualified US-NATO support for Afghanistan and the unchallenged acceptance of the Kabul narrative on Pakistan resulting in “indifference and inaction” from the current government? It looks like we shall have to convey in categorical terms that the Trump support for and the NATO commitment to Afghanistan’s security and development is not an open-ended affair, said one US official. Most visitors also wondered whether brazen terrorist attacks reduce pressure on Ashraf Ghani to take action on the peace front. Terrorist attacks are condemnable, we expect Pakistan to curb the flow of militants and criminals from its side, said one European official, but it certainly cannot be an “excuse for inaction” by Kabul. And can the government really sustain itself by refusing to indulge in talks with the Taliban as political opposition or can it really afford to play on the military option? Also, another realization that one could discern from these interactions was that, “we can hardly change the Pakistani security establishment’s matrix.” “We tried it for over a decade but...
Taliban, Warlords, Kuchis and Stability
The opponents of the Kabul regime believe that the government has failed on almost all accounts. In this context, mention is often made to the growing tension between the two power pegs within the government, increased financial corruption of government functionaries, the declining control of provinces and their leaders, absence of national resolve to enforce the rule of law, reliance of listing local militia to enforce government law and the failure to deal with surging Taliban, etc. They try to project that the government has been busy merely reiterating stale, hackneyed, and already proved ineffective stratagem. While there is neither legal, nor religious restraint to implement good governance, at least in areas under government control, no effort on the part of ineffective Kabul politicians is in evidence for a national common vision. A few of them realize that perhaps Afghans themselves could have handled the situation, were there no other countries and their strategic games including proxies. Apart from dealing with the bloody outcomes of 20 years of war-like situation and 15 years of active war fought by foreign powers, the government is fractured along ethnic fault lines, fully exhausted. In such a situation, any amount of financial and military support would be inadequate for the government to overcome its myriad challenges. At the same time, the government must realize that it has no option to fail in Afghanistan, which has re-emerged as the new theatre of the new great game, dominated both by economic and civilizational conflicts. This time, the world is marked by assertive multi-polar powers and their fast shifting positions on old and new issues of world order. The incursion of religious extremism coupled with terrorism make this mixture more lethal and deadly. As a result, Afghanistan has become an interesting place to test their geostrategic games. It does not matter whether big powers win or lose in Afghanistan. The war was lost in Vietnam but it...
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TESTIMONIALS
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.