Current Projects
Afghanistan: An Area of Rivalry
As India tiptoes toward the six-nation conference on Afghanistan in Moscow on Wednesday — comprising Russia, China, India, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan — a new process is beginning with regard to regional security. Quintessentially, a novel regional format is in the making. Kabul's participation in such a process will give it added international legitimacy. However, issues remain, which can be put into three clusters. At the most obvious level, it needs to be understood at the outset that India happens to be the odd man out in this proposed regional format. India is not quite there where the rest of the grouping has reached as regards perceptions regarding Taliban. The regional consensus — as indeed international consensus — is that Taliban's reconciliation, being an Afghan entity, is the key to an enduring settlement. Also, there is consensus that the prolongation of the war makes no sense, and the stalemate cannot be broken except through political means. All the other five countries participating in the Moscow meet maintain contacts with the Taliban in one way or another and they are willing to acknowledge it, too. India, therefore, needs a reality check: How long can it bury the head in the sand and insist on the imperative of waging a robust war against the Taliban when others tend to see the conflict more as fratricidal strife? Second, there is no gainsaying the fact that Pakistan has a key role to play in an enduring Afghan settlement. Even Iran, which has been at loggerheads with Pakistan over the Afghan situation, has harmonised its stance with Pakistan. Again, India is a solitary exception. From the second half of the nineties, India began viewing the Afghan situation in zero sum terms - although Taliban or the al-Qaeda operating out of Afghanistan — never perpetrated terrorist acts on Indian soil. Suffice it to say, India-Pakistan tensions today have become a significant complicating factor in reaching an Afghan settlement, and, arguably, that could...
Sabawoon Showcase – February 08, 2017
Raffia Qaseem Baig; The First Ever Lady Constable in Pakistan to Serve in the Bomb Disposal Unit (BDU) The latest episode of Jwandai Jazbey (living spirits) featured the first ever lady constable in Pakistan serving in the BDU of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Police, Ms. Raffia Qaseem Baig. Ms. Baig said that she always had a great passion for joining air force, army or police. She preferred to join the KP Police in 2010 despite the availability of other opportunities. Being part of KP police, she has offered her services for the BDU, one of the riskiest units of policing. She said: “The inspiration behind joining the BDU of KP police was an incident that happened to me few years back. While I was taking a medical test as a requirement of recruitment process, a bomb went off causing many casualties and deaths. My mother got very scared. She advised me not to join the police but I told her that death is an unavoidable fact. One should believe in Allah only and offer services to bring a positive change in the society.” She discussed her experiences about the capacity building initiatives in KP Police. She said: “I have received the best training in police training school recently inaugurated by KP Police. I was really excited to see the training of how to manage the long range machine gun, anti-person mine, anti-tank mine, hand grenade, suicide bomb jackets etc. I learnt about explosives i.e. Trinitrotoluene (TNT), detonators, prim-cord etc. I am proud as a female for participating side by side with my male colleagues in every operation we have conducted so far.” She added that even if her physique was not so much suitable for working in BDU, she was still motivated enough to sacrifice her life for the sake of public safety. She recalled that once she visited the crime scene when a bomb went off on Warsak Road. Many people were astonished to see I didn’t have the special dress for disposing bomb. The reason is weight of the dress which is 75 kg and it is hard for a 50 Kg...
Hekmatyar taken off UN sanctions list: Paving the way for his return – and Hezb-e Islami’s reunification?
The United Nations has lifted the sanctions against Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the leader of the Islamic Party of Afghanistan. This was the next step in the implementation of the peace agreement signed by the Afghan government and Hezb in September 2016. It paves the way for the return of the former mujahedin leader, one of the most contentious figures in recent Afghan history – a hero of the jihad according to supporters, a war criminal according to detractors. AAN’s co-director Thomas Ruttig follows up on earlier AAN analysis of the peace agreement, looks at what happens next and possible implications for Hekmatyar’s party (with input from Kate Clark, Fazal Muzhary and Ehsan Qaane). Over four months after the peace deal between the Afghan government and Hezb-e Islami was signed by President Ashraf Ghani and Hezb leader (amir) Gulbuddin Hekmatyar (who was not personally present but brought in via video link), the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has taken Hekmatyar off its sanctions list. A press release about this measure was published on 3 February 2017 (see the full text in the annex to this dispatch). Without it, the government would have been obliged to detain Hekmatyar if he came to Kabul openly. In the September 2016 agreement with Hezb-e Islami Afghanistan (HIA, Islamic Party of Afghanistan), the Afghan government had committed to take measures that would remove “all sanctions” against the leadership and members of Hezb as a prerequisite for its implementation. (Read earlier AAN analysis of the agreement and its possible repercussion. This stipulation in the agreement does not only refer to the now lifted UN sanctions. Hezb and/or Hekmatyar were also blacklisted by individual states and organisations such as the US, the UK and the European Union. (1) There have been no official statements, so far, by those sides on a changed status of Hezb or Hekmatyar. Until the agreement was signed, Hezb, after the Taleban, had been the second largest organisation...
Afghan Weekly (Feb 03 - Feb 09, 2017)
The peace measures in Afghanistan, most often prove to be in shadows, but the recent peace accord of Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin Hekmatyar with Afghan Government is being considered as a silver lining in the cloud. With these rapidly moving developments, different maneuvers to expedite the peace process are being employed by Russia, China, Pakistan and other regional and international actors. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Afghanistan now has been formally invited to another round due in mid-February in Moscow, where high level representatives from China, Iran, India and Pakistan will be present.[1] Lavrov made this announcement on February 07 in Moscow after talks with his visiting Afghan counterpart, Salahuddin Rabbani, revealing that most of these countries had already confirmed their participation. China, too, is engaging both the Afghan Government and Taliban for a settlement through dialogue. Deng Xijun, China’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, has said to the Afghan Government that negotiations with the Taliban is the only way forward. The Chinese envoy also said that during their talks with the Taliban they had encouraged them to do the same.[2] The internal actors and stakeholders in Afghanistan are disparately trying to impress upon their mantras for truce. The High Peace Council (HPC) has said that it has defined a new peace process strategy which they hope will influence Taliban insurgents to join peace negotiations with the Afghan Government. The new peace process strategy ought to be indigenous and will seek no involvement of others.[3] A somewhat similar notion was shared in a separate conference in Kabul which was organized by Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS). In the conference, former National Security Advisor Rangeen Dadfar Spanta told the participants that Afghanistan has to break away from the reliance on certain nations and work on new concepts.[4] A multipronged policy will help Afghanistan to be in more...
Sabawoon Showcase – February 07, 2017
Regional Review of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) The latest episode of Da Simay Jaaj (regional review) discussed several public issues such as education, health, sports, and developmental projects in different parts of KP. The show contained reports on: Problems faced by students of Government Primary School, Mohmand Agency, due to the lack of proper building and other basic facilities. The international skiing competition in Malam Jabba, Swat, organized by Pakistan Army to promote peace and tourism in the region. Upgradation of 17 government schools in Dera Ismail Khan District and the demand of local people to boost the literacy rate and increase the teachers’ attendance at schools. KP’s Governor, Mr. Iqbal Zafar Jhagra’s visit to North Waziristan Agency and announcement of developmental schemes for the region. The strike by Para Medical Association of Kohat District because of the non-payment of salaries since August 2016. Listeners’ Response: Three listeners from North Waziristan Agency shared their feedback in the show through live calls. They appreciated the initiation of developmental schemes but lamented that after the commencement, such projects were usually not covered by financial backing. They urged the government to ensure the sustainable working of these schemes in the long run. About Sabawoon Sabawoon airs in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). It is designed to highlight the local issues and promote the fundamental governance values, such as democracy, rule of law, women’s rights, and equal citizenry. The show airs Monday through Thursday every week under four themes on FM-101.5 Peshawar and Dera Ismail Khan 711 KHZ from 3:20 PM to 4:00 PM. On Monday, Jarga Maraka covers current affairs and important regional issues with an input from government and other senior officials. On Tuesday, Da Simay Jaaj gives an overview of the top stories from KP and FATA regions....
A NATO Rethink on Afghanistan?
Moscow invites the regional players to discuss peace mid-Feb Is a US-led NATO rethink on Afghanistan and Pakistan underway? Has the Indian policy of “isolating” Pakistan outlived its temporal utility following some immature moves by the Indian prime minister and the Afghan president? These critical questions flow from a flurry of some overt and covert high-profile foreign diplomatic visits to Islamabad between Jan 27 and Feb 7. They brought with them many questions, and wondered whether and what Pakistan can do to help revive the Afghan peace process, whether high-level changes in the Pakistani security establishment offer a window of opportunity for the Afghan peace talks, and will Pakistan tag along Russia and China to pursue the Afghan reconciliation process? Another big question emerging from the interactions with foreign dignitaries revolved around continued western support for the Afghan government; is unqualified US-NATO support for Afghanistan and the unchallenged acceptance of the Kabul narrative on Pakistan resulting in “indifference and inaction” from the current government? It looks like we shall have to convey in categorical terms that the Trump support for and the NATO commitment to Afghanistan’s security and development is not an open-ended affair, said one US official. Most visitors also wondered whether brazen terrorist attacks reduce pressure on Ashraf Ghani to take action on the peace front. Terrorist attacks are condemnable, we expect Pakistan to curb the flow of militants and criminals from its side, said one European official, but it certainly cannot be an “excuse for inaction” by Kabul. And can the government really sustain itself by refusing to indulge in talks with the Taliban as political opposition or can it really afford to play on the military option? Also, another realization that one could discern from these interactions was that, “we can hardly change the Pakistani security establishment’s matrix.” “We tried it for over a decade but...
Taliban, Warlords, Kuchis and Stability
The opponents of the Kabul regime believe that the government has failed on almost all accounts. In this context, mention is often made to the growing tension between the two power pegs within the government, increased financial corruption of government functionaries, the declining control of provinces and their leaders, absence of national resolve to enforce the rule of law, reliance of listing local militia to enforce government law and the failure to deal with surging Taliban, etc. They try to project that the government has been busy merely reiterating stale, hackneyed, and already proved ineffective stratagem. While there is neither legal, nor religious restraint to implement good governance, at least in areas under government control, no effort on the part of ineffective Kabul politicians is in evidence for a national common vision. A few of them realize that perhaps Afghans themselves could have handled the situation, were there no other countries and their strategic games including proxies. Apart from dealing with the bloody outcomes of 20 years of war-like situation and 15 years of active war fought by foreign powers, the government is fractured along ethnic fault lines, fully exhausted. In such a situation, any amount of financial and military support would be inadequate for the government to overcome its myriad challenges. At the same time, the government must realize that it has no option to fail in Afghanistan, which has re-emerged as the new theatre of the new great game, dominated both by economic and civilizational conflicts. This time, the world is marked by assertive multi-polar powers and their fast shifting positions on old and new issues of world order. The incursion of religious extremism coupled with terrorism make this mixture more lethal and deadly. As a result, Afghanistan has become an interesting place to test their geostrategic games. It does not matter whether big powers win or lose in Afghanistan. The war was lost in Vietnam but it...
Sabawoon Showcase – February 6, 2017
Adulteration in Food Items and Its Legal Implications The latest episode of Jarga Maraka (debate and council) took up the issue of adulterated food items in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), its legal implications and measures adopted by the government to curb this menace. Other points of discussion included the role of district administration in controlling the debasement of food items, rules and regulations about hygienic food in KP, laboratory tests of food items, health hazards caused by adulteration of food items, and penalties imposed against the offenders by the district government in Peshawar. The show also highlighted the role of government and media in educating public about the importance of safe and hygienic food. Mr. Ateeq Humayun, a senior journalist, was the in-studio guest while Mr. Kashif Uddin, a Peshawar based journalist, shared his views through live call. Mr. Humayun said: “The KP government must empower the health department and devise an effective mechanism to curb the dilution and adulteration of food items. This problem has already caused many health issues in the entire province.” Mr. Kashif said: “The current penalties for adulteration do not conform to the type of contamination crimes being perpetrated. Rules should conform to the level of the threat.” A radio report shared data about the culprits found involved in mixing of chemicals into milk in district Peshawar. Three callers participated live in the program. They urged the food control department to expand its checks and control to the far flung districts of KP. About Sabawoon Sabawoon airs in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). It is designed to highlight the local issues and promote the fundamental governance values, such as democracy, rule of law, women’s rights, and equal citizenry. The show airs Monday through Thursday every week under four themes on FM-101.5 Peshawar and Dera Ismail Khan 711 KHZ from 3:20 PM to 4:00 PM. On Monday, Jarga Maraka...
Trump Vs. Pakistan
What will President Trump’s foreign policy be like, and how will it affect Pakistan? His inauguration speech broadly pointed to an anti-globalization, anti-internationalism, and strongly nationalistic stance, but gives no policy clues. For that, we need the help of more tangible evidence that should include but not be limited to the executive orders he has issued during the first week of his presidency. Trump 101 Four general impressions of Trump jump out of these executive orders. First, he is abysmally ignorant about how the world works and has a tendency to ignore or deny what he does not know. Second, he is a man whose formative influences in foreign affairs are based on long entrenched prejudices and biases — as evidenced by his talk of the trade deals he has allegedly always known were ripoffs. Third, he is someone who will remain wedded to his base for reasons of politics as much as for holding sway over adulating millions to validate his superego, which is typical of a strongman psyche. And lastly, he is a complex personality, thick-skinned on criticism of his policies and thin-skinned on personal slights. That makes him a poor politician and a bad diplomat. But we need to go beyond these impressions and look at more evidence to make any informed guesses about his foreign policy, which these executive orders touch only tangentially. The evidence would be, on one hand, Trump’s long-lasting campaign rhetoric, of which the inauguration speech was the finale, his tweets, personal background and business career; and on the other what his secretaries of state and defense have said at their confirmation hearings. Their remarks are so much at odds with Trump’s own statements that we are tempted to presume they would not have so spoken if they believed this would not be reflected in policy. In all likelihood, Trump’s primary focus will be on domestic issues like the economy, jobs and security; and in foreign policy on hybrid issues – foreign policy issues with high...
Security Situation in Afghanistan and Events in Kabul (2016 – 2017)
“Afghanistan is an Islamic republic.”[1] “The U.S. government estimates the total population at 32.6 million (July 2015 estimate).”[2] “Further hindering Afghanistan is that its economy and society are still fragile after decades of warfare that left about 2 million dead, 700,000 widows and orphans, and about 1 million Afghan children raised in refugee camps outside Afghanistan. More than 3.5 million Afghan refugees have since returned, although a comparable number remain outside Afghanistan.”[3] State and Non-State Actors “Since December 2014, when the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) ended its combat role in Afghanistan, the ANSF has performed reasonably well in face-to-face encounters with the Taliban. However, it failed spectacularly in defending Kunduz. Some 7,000 security personnel could not hold the city against an assault by a few hundred Taliban fighters. It lays bare the ANSF’s weakness in fighting in urban settings. Analysts observe that the fall of Kunduz is not so much the outcome of the Taliban’s fighting abilities as of the ANSF’s failures, poor leadership, and low morale.”[4] “As casualties mounted to dramatic levels in 2015, even according to official figures that are most likely underestimated, the Afghan National Army (ANA) has for the first time begun experiencing serious problems in recruitment. The army also experienced a resurgence of ghost soldiering (soldiers who are listed as being on active duty, but who do not serve)—a problem which had been largely contained by 2010. The units most exposed in the fighting were seriously depleted and under-strength by November. The withdrawal of the mentors/advisers from the ANA tactical units in 2014 exposed a range of weaknesses in logistical capabilities, planning, procurement, equipment maintenance and administration. The resulting paradox is an ANA less mobile then the insurgents, despite the fact that it remains more or less in control of the main highways of the country. […] The...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.