Current Projects
Pak-Afghan Youth Dialogue Session One
The Center for Research and Security Studies held its first Pak-Afghan Youth Dialogue under its newly undertaken initiative – the Afghan Studies Center, at its head office in Islamabad on Thursday, on May 18, 2017. It was attended by 20 participants, some of who traveled from Karachi, Bajaur Agency and Peshawar to participate in this dialogue. Mr. Imtiaz Gul, CRSS Executive Director, Mr. Mian Sanaullah, former Ambassador and advisor at CRSS, Mr. Aized Ali, Project Director of CRSS’ Pakistan-Afghanistan Track 1.5/II project Beyond Boundaries and Sitwat Waqar Bokhari and Saddam Hussein, editors at Afghan Studies Center, represented CRSS. The dialogue began with Mr. Imtiaz Gul welcoming the participants in his opening remarks and highlighting the importance of youth forums to serve as a bridge between the people of both countries and in mitigating the rising hostility in recent years. Mr. Aized Ali further informed the participants about CRSS’ Pakistan-Afghanistan Track 1.5/II Project Beyond Boundaries which comprised of a total of 12 meetings, 6 each in Pakistan and Afghanistan, between parliamentarians and civil society members from both countries. He stated that the idea of the Afghan Studies Center emerged from the engagement with the youth during Beyond Boundaries’ members’ visits to universities in both countries. Mr. Mian Sanaullah next welcomed the participants and expressed his optimism in the youth of both countries to take forward the message of peace. A short video of a cultural event featuring singers from both countries hosted by CRSS in Islamabad in Beyond Boundaries’ last meeting was shown to the participants. Sitwat Waqar Bokhari, who was moderating the session, introduced the theme “Understanding Pak-Afghan Trust Deficit: The Role of the Youth in the Way Forward” to the participants and opened the floor for discussion. The discussion began with participants from both sides sharing their insightful views on the theme and the role of the youth in...
CRSS holds Roundtable discussion on CPEC and Regional Security with visiting Chinese delegation of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR)
The Director of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) visited the Center for Research and Security Studies along with his CICIR colleagues; Mr. Yan Shuai, Mr. Chen Wenxin, and Mr. Wang Shida, on Tuesday 16 May, 2017, for a dialogue on ‘CPEC and Regional Security’ hosted by CRSS at its head office in Islamabad. CRSS was represented by Pakistani experts; Dr. Shoaib Suddle; former IG Police, Lt. Gen (retd) Talat Masood; former Defence Secretary, Mr. Salman Bashir; former Foreign Secretary, AVM (retd) Ateeb Siddiqui; former Head and Commandant of Air Force Air war College, and Lt. Gen (retd) Masood Aslam; former Ambassador. CICIR Director, Mr. Xianoqing, in his introductory remarks, noted that the relations of both countries have upgraded to a new level with the commencement of “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” (CPEC); where earlier they were restricted to only a political and military relationship, now Pak-China relations have broadened to include economic cooperation and infrastructure development. Chen Wenxin, Deputy Director CICIR expressed his concern that while the overall security situation in Pakistan has improved, Balochistan continues to face increased terrorist attacks. He also said that it is heartening to see that Pakistan has also become a member of Shanghai Cooperation Organistaion (SCO) recently and now Beijing has friends under the SCO framework. China looks forward to reaping maximum benefits by collaborating with Pakistan under this framework. Former Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir congratulated Chinese friends on a successful ‘China Summit,’ terming it as a prodigious initiative in contemporary times. Pakistan like China also wants India to be part of the “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) initiative, but India has so far decided to stay away, he stated. He further mentioned three factors influencing Indian policy towards Pakistan, namely; a) Extremist ideological narrative of BJP which is itself lethal for Indian Union b) New...
CHINA WATCH [May 9 – 15] SUMMIT OF THE BELT AND ROAD FORUM (BRF) FOR INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
The summit of the BRF for International Cooperation in Beijing was the top story of the last week. China and Pakistan signed new deals worth nearly $500 ahead of the summit. In its efforts to induce New Delhi to attend the BRF summit, China showed willingness to rename the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, India did not participate in the BRF summit and called the initiative as “unsustainable debt”. Two major terrorist attacks in Baluchistan refreshed the questions about the security of the CPEC. In an exclusive report, English daily Dawn has revealed the details of the much-awaited masterplan of the CPEC. A large number of protestors gathered in Skardu to protest against the exclusion of Gligit-Baltistan (GB) form the CPEC projects. The Director of the United States (U.S.) National Intelligence, Daniel Coats, observed that the CPEC “will probably offer militants and terrorists additional targets.” CPEC in the Limelight: China and Pakistan inked new deals worth nearly $500 ahead of the Belt and Road summit in Beijing.[i] Pakistan’s delegation at the summit is led by Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif, Chief Ministers of all the four provinces and some cabinet ministers. The agreements signed included: a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on bilateral cooperation within the framework of the Silk Road initiative, agreement for up gradation of the main track ML-I, MoU about a dry port in Havelian, and three agreements related to economic and technical cooperation worth 3.4 billion yuan for the Gwadar port and East Bay Expressway.[ii] On the other hand, the Chinese President Xi Jinping in a meeting with Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif called for pushing forward the construction of the CPEC.[iii] The Pakistani PM warned that CPEC should not be politicised and said the corridor was open to all countries.[iv] He went on to say that “[W]e are not striving to merely leverage geography for economic prosperity; we are also trying to build a peaceful, connected and...
Q1 Security Report – 2017
Executive Summary: After witnessing a marked drop in fatalities from violence during last year, the trend continued, despite a sudden upturn in violence during the second month in this quarter. The CPEC initiative, foreign intervention, and security lapses were some factors that led the militants and their supporters to strike using new strategies. Of all the regions in Pakistan, only Sindh showed an upsurge, when compared to data from last year’s first quarter. Every other province/region had declining amounts of violence-related casualties. While the ongoing military operation against outlaws forced the militant outfits like Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Lashkar-e-Islami (LI), and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) to go into hiding, Da’ish (or Islamic State (IS)) also made itself known by claiming major suicide attacks at two Sufi shrines in Sindh and Balochistan. In February, eleven coordinated attacks were reported across the country. Having lost thousands of militants in security operations, and with thousands more in custody, the militant ability to continue with such attacks was viewed as a shocking development and unprecedented given Pakistan’s recent gains. Overall, the security situation continues to improve, although we are seeing more of a plateau in progress, as expected. It is hoped that with kinetic gains, the state apparatus also focuses on the softer side of things to try and eliminate extremism, which is the root cause of terrorism in the country. To assess and evaluate what new challenges and threats are being faced by the country, this report makes use of the national print and electronic media sources. CRSS endeavors to ensure that the data is as accurate as possible within the available resources. However, it does not rule out errors and omissions, which are always a possibility in such public-source statistical work. Such mistakes, nevertheless, do not grossly affect the overall outcome and conclusions of this report. It must also be said that this...
CHINA WATCH [May 3 – 8] CHINA REJECTS MEDDLING IN KASHMIR ISSUE
China rejected the suggestion of intervening in Kashmir issue, calling it a bilateral dispute between India and Pakistan. China has reminded India that skipping the ‘One Belt One Road’ (OBOR) summit this month in Beijing would not be favourable for India. Chinese ambassador Sun Weidong has sought to dispel concerns about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Pakistan’s anti-corruption body National Accountability Bureau (NAB) has signed an agreement with China to jointly oversee projects and ensure transparency. China Rejects Meddling in Kashmir Issue: China rejected the proposition of intervening in Kashmir issue, calling it a bilateral dispute between India and Pakistan. China’s Foreign Ministry told IANS in a statement that “China’s position on the issue of Kashmir is clear and consistent. It is an issue left over from history between India and Pakistan and shall be properly addressed by India and Pakistan through consultation and negotiation.”[i] The statement added that “[B]uilding of the CPEC does not affect China’s position on the issue.” The clarification on the part of Beijing came days after a commentary in the state-run Global Times argued that due to its interest of massive investments in the region, time was ripe for Beijing to play its role in resolving the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan.[ii] Although China generally supports Pakistan in later’s diplomatic and military equation against India, it adheres to the policy of non-interference in Kashmir issue. Such an approach helps Beijing balance relations with New Delhi’s on the one hand, and on the other, stick to the policy of non-interference in internal affairs of other countries. India’s Refusal to Join OBOR summit: China has reminded India that skipping the OBOR summit this month on May 14 and 15 in Beijing would not be favourable for India. While voicing his views about New Delhi’s hesitation to send its representative to the summit, China’s Foreign Minster Wang Yi said that...
Pakistan Forward, USA, Quotes Data From CRSS’s Annual Security Report 2016 In Its Security Analysis
Following report by Pakistan Forward, USA, is based on the annual security report 2016 by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) which states that as many as 149 Pakistani militants were killed in Afghanistan in the last two years – 111 in 2016 and 38 in 2015 , by US drones, the Afghan armed forces and the Pakistani military’s crackdown against terrorists in the border regions. This statistical evidence suggests that these terrorists fled the Pakistan operations and set up shelters mostly in eastern Afghanistan. Report: Stepped-up action against militants in Afghanistan, Pakistan ‘paying off’ Pakistani Taliban fighters stand with their seized weapons as they are presented to the media in Kabul on January 5, 2016. Nine foreign terrorists were arrested with their weapons by Afghan border police in Nazyan district of Nangarhar province and were transferred to Kabul, Sediq Sediqqi, spokesman of the Ministry of Interior said. AFP PHOTO. The security crackdown leaves no room for militant safe havens on either side of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Stepped-up actions against militants in Afghanistan and Pakistan are paying off, according to the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) 2016 Annual Security Report. Pakistani militants hiding across the border in Afghanistan are no longer finding safe havens there, data show. During the past two years, 149 Pakistani militants were killed in Afghanistan — 111 in 2016 and 38 in 2015, the Islamabad-based security think tank reported. “Most of the militants killed in Afghanistan belonged to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and had taken shelter in Afghanistan,” CRSS Executive Director Imtiaz Gul told Pakistan Forward. A few militants belonging to Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) who had escaped from Shawal, North Waziristan, during Operation Zarb-e-Azb were killed in Afghanistan either in coalition air strikes or by Pakistani or Afghan security forces, he said. The killing of TTP and LeJ militants and...
Multilateralism: Hostage to Geo-Politics
At a May 2015 global forum in Beijing, former President Hamid Karzai had talked of high time to "recommit ourselves to peaceful conflict resolution, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of individual countries and non-interference. At the same time he applauded China's push for the meanwhile household concept of One Belt One Road (OBOR). Drawing on Beijing's experience in dealing with its neighbours, Krazai had suggested this Chinese approach could "help our countries rise above narrow interpretations of national security, rooted in multilateralism, dialogue and driven by the spirit of cooperation in an increasingly inter-dependent world. But the failure thus far of the various Afghanistan-focused processes - Heart of Asia (HoA), Quadrilateral Contact Group (QCG), the US-Indo-Afghanistan trilateral, and the Moscow Initiative, the latest of such efforts. Beijing too is now quietly leading a multi-tier trilateral involving both Pakistan and Afghanistan to help the two out of their current acrimony. Beijing realises that without peace and stability in Afghanistan, the outreach and effectiveness of CPEC will remain limited. All these initiatives beg a basic question; can a bi-, tri- or multilateral process succeed when accompanied by conflicting geo-political interests of major stakeholders? While Karzai and his successor President Ghani do verbally commit to the idea of multilateralism for conflict resolution and regional economic development, vested interest in Kabul, it seems, is working against those ideals. The relatively low-level Afghan participation in the two Moscow conferences was perhaps an indicator for this. Both Moscow and Beijing had pleaded with Kabul to elevate the level of participation but in vain. Can it be the reason why Afghanistan has not been invited to a OBOR conference at Beijing middle of the month? Leaders from around three dozen countries, including Prime minister Nawaz Sharif, are officially participating in the high-profile...
For Smooth One-Belt, China Takes Af-Pak Diplomacy up a Notch
China is running full-steam ahead with multi-tier diplomacy to create a synergy of thought and action among regional countries as part of its intense focus on the realization of its ambitious One-Belt, One-Road (OBOR) initiatives. It believes that the objectives would be hard to achieve if political conflicts kept regional countries at loggerheads. Stability and development require peaceful neighbourhoods. China, which is still struggling with many social problems, poverty and economic disparities in various parts of its own turf, is ostensibly anxious to get as many neighbours on board as possible to collectively overcome these challenges—both in and around China. Detractors call this westward expansion. Beijing prefers to peg it as an attempt to share the dividends of economic development with other developing countries for the simple reason that China will prosper only if its neighborhood is stable and benefiting from its trade and development. Recent interactions with Chinese officials, academics and intelligentsia offered insight into how they clearly see a more integrated Asian region as the key to the success of their OBOR initiatives. Beijing also feels that peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan and intra-Afghan dialogue for reconciliation within Afghanistan is the key to the OBOR flagship China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) initiative. This is why, using ministerial, bureaucratic, and civil society channels, Beijing is working hard to convey both to Afghanistan and Pakistan that they must mend fences. China has indicated its readiness to mediate between Pakistan and Afghanistan too. Yet, the attitude of these two countries would determine the nature and extent of the Chinese involvement in such a process, officials caution They acknowledge that Afghanistan is a “tragedy country” which is still facing problems because of external players. Chinese leadership is also vocal about the external influences on Afghanistan. We believe that no outside power...
CHINA WATCH [April 25- May 2] ‘LONG TERM PLAN’ (LTP) FOR THE CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR (CPEC)
A Chinese diplomat has confirmed that Pakistan and China were working towards the early finalisation of an LPT for the CPEC. Iran has reiterated that it was keen on joining the CEPC. The federal planning, development and reform ministry requested the Peshawar High Court (PHC) to dismiss the petition filed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) government. Chinese ambassador to Pakistan Sun Weidong said that since Pakistan was not producing the goods needed in China, it had trade deficit with China. Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Zakaullah has said that the navy was ready to face any challenge in the Indian Ocean after the completion of the CPEC. Under the revised priority list of the CPEC, Pakistan and China have set the electricity generation capacity at 11,000MW. ‘LTP’ for CPEC: The political and Press Counsellor at the Chinese embassy in Islamabad Jian Han has confirmed that Pakistan and China were working towards the early finalisation of an LPT for the CPEC.[i] It is believed that the concerned ‘LPT’ could be finalised during the Belt and Road summit to be held in Beijing on May 14 and 15. According to Mr. Jian the LPT “would set the focus for CPEC construction in the future.” On the other hand, CPEC’s Project Director Hassan Daud Butt said that the plan would serve as a blueprint for further progress in CPEC from present till 2030.[ii] He added that under Early Harvest Projects, to be completed in 2018, about 7,000 MW of electricity would be added to the national grid and linkages of eastern and western routes would be completed. While China seems to be interested in the construction of CPEC as a launching pad for its grand strategy of ‘Belt and Road Initiative’, Pakistan’s incumbent government is in the rush to cash on the completion of projects for electoral gains in the next general elections. Beyond all the glowing official narratives, many questions and reservations loom large over the different aspects of CPEC which the two governments have yet to address....
Why Not Publish The JIT Report?
Government’s actions based on the JIT report on Dawn Leaks (dismissals of two technocrats) has unfortunately resuscitated the latent fault lines in Pakistan’s political landscape. Almost at the same time, Supreme Court’s Panama ruling has exposed the contradictions as well as the impudence of Pakistan’s ruling elites. As far the Panama ruling, the epilogue of a recent article from former ambassador Ashraf Jehangir Qazi (published in Dawn, May 1) comprehensively encapsulates the worrisome situation that resonated during the Panama case as well. Pakistan is among the countries most exposed to climate change, unmanageable population growth, leadership corruption, criminally irresponsible governance, economic collapse and nuclear catastrophe. With a prime minister temporarily reprieved but permanently discredited by the supreme judiciary, ask not for whom the doomsday clock shall toll. This quote depicts an unfortunate reality of the current day Pakistan; civilian rulers ride into power using the chariot of democracy. But once ensconced in the position of power, their focus turns to personal and party gains instead of thinking of the federation of Pakistan and its teeming millions. Personal greed and self-glorification takes precedence over good responsible governance, transparency and accountability vis a vis the electorate take the back seat. Noted commentator Ayaz Amir rightly described this “a state of mind” during a tv show, thereby meaning that once in power, the ruling elites love to dodge and dribble the law to their advantage, often at the cost of their own claims to democracy. Now to the Dawn leaks; the sacking, first of Pervez Rasheed, and then Tariq Fatmi and Rao Tehseen, the principal information officer, exemplifies this typical attitude; by offering the two as the scapegoats, the government naively believed it would dodge the General Headquarter (GHQ). This the prime minister’s office despite the understanding that the report of the Joint Investigation...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.