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Afghanistan: Beset by Geo-Politics
The Trump administration plans to beef up its nearly 9000 troops with another 4,000 with the stated objective of training and assisting the Afghan security forces on the way to peace and reconciliation. This addition comes in extremely difficult times, defined by divisions and disagreements within Kabul’s ruling and security circles. President Ghani is lording over a divided house and this is keeping the Taliban also back from engagement for peace. Additionally, multiple conflicting factors continue to cloud prospects of peace in Afghanistan. And the heart of this unfortunate country’s current political and security crisis sits the new so-called Great Game, driven by big powers’ quest for influence over Afghanistan and the region. The fact that Russia refused to sign off a joint declaration at the end of the Kabul Peace Summit on June also points to this rivalry. Its representative defended the move saying the declaration was being imposed on participants without any prior discussions. Conflicting regional approach: Although all stakeholders talk of a regional approach, yet a big difference separates the US-Indo-Afghan approach from that of Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran and Turkey; the former, according to the Pakistani officials, want action against non-state actors in the entire region. The Indo-US-Afghan narrative on the issue includes Lashkare Taiba (LeT) as well as Jaishe Mohammad (JeM) and by implication a multilateral verification plus action mechanism could include even these Pakistan-based outlawed entities. The mechanism could practically serve as the consent for the “kinetic and hot” pursuit into the heartland of Pakistan and thus entail complicating consequences for the government. The other group of countries looks at it differently; they take President Ashraf Ghani’s talk at the Munich conference early this year on its face value; as many as 20 non-state militia and terrorist groups are currently using the Afghan soil and it requires a collective...
CHINA WATCH [JUNE 13 – 19] CHINA’S RIFT WITH PAKISTAN?
Beijing has brushed off the reports of a rift with Pakistan in the aftermath of the killing of two Chinese nationals in Pakistan. According to Afghan media reports, China is expected to play mediatory role in improving relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. China dismissed the apprehensions that Indo-Pak rivalry and tensions could overwhelm the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) platform. China has urged Pakistan to increase military cooperation between the two countries for regional peace and stability. International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said the outlook for Pakistan’s economy was good because of massive investments under CPEC but has also warned of related risks for progress in the future. Federal Minster for Planning and Development Ahsan Iqbal has said that China was expected to fund the long-delayed Diamer-Bhasha dam. China Brushes Off Rift with Pakistan: Beijing has brushed off the reports of a rift with Pakistan in the aftermath of the killing of two Chinese nationals in Pakistan. Some media outlets had pointed out that during the Astana summit of the SCO this month, President Xi Jinping shunned a meeting with Pakistan’s prime Minster Nawaz Sharif but held meetings with other heads of state at the same time. The move was ascribed to China’s displeasure over Pakistan’s failure to protect Chinese citizens. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said that “I can tell you that during the 17th SCO heads of the state meeting, President Xi met with Pakistan Prime Minister Sharif several times.”[i] He added “[S]ome media reports are just nonsense and unwanted. China and Pakistan enjoy an all-weather strategic partnership.” This whole development unfolded in the aftermath of abduction of two Chinese nationals by armed men who claimed to be Islamic State (IS) fighters, in Quetta. Pakistan’s security forces conducted a special military operation in Mastung area of Baluchistan but could not recover the abducted persons. Later on, the IS claimed to...
Q&A: Taliban Infiltrate Afghan Army to Target Foreign Troop
An uptick in attacks by Afghan National army soldiers against foreign troops would seem a worrisome trend ahead of the deployment of another 4,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan in the latest attempt by Washington to turn around the protracted war against insurgents. Two so-called insider attacks, in which a soldier in an Afghan National Army uniform turns his weapon on foreign troops, in as many weeks have killed three U.S. soldiers and wounded another seven. Insider attacks have been occurring with deadly regularity since 2011. According to an April report by the Modern War Institute at America’s West Point it was in 2011 that “insider attacks became the preferred war-fighting tactic of the Taliban, an organization that understood well how to apply limited resources for maximum effect.” The report says since 2007, insider attacks have killed 157 NATO personnel and 557 members of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. But it also blames many attacks against foreign troops on what it calls cultural friction, where Afghans become infuriated by a perceived insult. In June alone there were two separate attacks on U.S. soldiers by Afghans wearing an Afghan army uniform. In March another insider attack killed three U.S. soldiers. In April, Taliban fighters dressed in Afghan army uniforms passed through several security rings to enter a base in northern Afghanistan’s Balkh province and kill as many as 140 Afghan soldiers. The attacks come as U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to bolster Washington’s presence in Afghanistan to stem the violence and the Taliban’s military advances, particularly in rural areas of the country, and largely in the south and the east. But the emergence of an affiliate of the Islamic State group has created a sense of urgency to turn the war around. WHAT HAVE THE LATEST INSIDER ATTACKS LOOKED LIKE AND WHAT DO THEY SAY ABOUT INSURGENTS’ ABILITY TO INFILTRATE? The diverse locations of the two most recent insider attacks shows the depth of...
Q&A: Taliban Infiltrate Afghan Army to Target Foreign Troop
An uptick in attacks by Afghan National army soldiers against foreign troops would seem a worrisome trend ahead of the deployment of another 4,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan in the latest attempt by Washington to turn around the protracted war against insurgents. Two so-called insider attacks, in which a soldier in an Afghan National Army uniform turns his weapon on foreign troops, in as many weeks have killed three U.S. soldiers and wounded another seven. Insider attacks have been occurring with deadly regularity since 2011. According to an April report by the Modern War Institute at America’s West Point it was in 2011 that “insider attacks became the preferred war-fighting tactic of the Taliban, an organization that understood well how to apply limited resources for maximum effect.” The report says since 2007, insider attacks have killed 157 NATO personnel and 557 members of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. But it also blames many attacks against foreign troops on what it calls cultural friction, where Afghans become infuriated by a perceived insult. In June alone there were two separate attacks on U.S. soldiers by Afghans wearing an Afghan army uniform. In March another insider attack killed three U.S. soldiers. In April, Taliban fighters dressed in Afghan army uniforms passed through several security rings to enter a base in northern Afghanistan’s Balkh province and kill as many as 140 Afghan soldiers. The attacks come as U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to bolster Washington’s presence in Afghanistan to stem the violence and the Taliban’s military advances, particularly in rural areas of the country, and largely in the south and the east. But the emergence of an affiliate of the Islamic State group has created a sense of urgency to turn the war around. WHAT HAVE THE LATEST INSIDER ATTACKS LOOKED LIKE AND WHAT DO THEY SAY ABOUT INSURGENTS’ ABILITY TO INFILTRATE? The diverse locations of the two most recent insider attacks shows the depth of...
Why is Pakistan the Focus of Global Terrorist Incubation When Evidence Suggests Otherwise?
In her soon-to-be released memoir, I Was Told to Come Alone, Souad Mekhennet, a young Washington Post security correspondent who grew up as a Muslim in Germany recounts her work exploring the roots of Islamic radicalism. Born in Germany to a Turkish mother and a Moroccan father, Souad Mekhennet’s unique cultural identity granted her access to some of the most wanted terrorist operatives in the world where she has attempted to discover “what is in the minds of these young jihadists, and how can we understand and defuse it?” Her travels take her from the German neighborhoods where the 9/11 plotters were radicalized and the Iraqi neighborhoods where Sunnis and Shia turned against one another, all the way to the Turkish-Syrian border, encountering with intelligence agents, and secretive meetings with members of the inner circles of Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and ISIS all along. In her travels across the Middle East and North Africa, she documents her terrifying run-ins with various intelligence services and reveals why the Arab Spring never lived up to its promise. Returning to Europe, she uncovers the identity of the notorious ISIS executioner “Jihadi John” a British Arab living in London who had been shown on gruesome videos of radicals beheading captives. In France, Belgium, and her native Germany, she reveals how terror has infiltrated the heart of the Western civilization. Based on copious interviews with members of jihadi groups, torture victims, families of men drawn into terrorism, refugees, and desperate citizens, Mekhennet exposes the sources of rage against the West. She is as frustrated with the West’s insistence that all Muslims are terrorists as she is with the horrific image of the West held by indoctrinated jihadi militants, who watch videos of atrocities carried out by Western-backed regimes as part of the recruitment process. Mekhennet is also frustrated by the Western media’s glossing over reality: she wonders, for example, why the uprisings known as...
‘US Army Airlifted Karzai to Pakistan After He Survived Taliban Attack’
The American military helicopters had airlifted Hamid Karzai to Pakistan in November 2001 after the Taliban attacked on a compound where he stayed. After the Taliban killed prominent leader Abdul Haq in eastern Nangarhar, who was poised to become Afghan ruler after the US military toppled the Taliban regime, they had launched an attack to kill Karzai in Uruzgan province. Karzai had entered Afghanistan from Quetta when the US started military operations against the Taliban in October 2001. "Karzai survived and the American helicopters airlifted him along with some fighters and took him to Jacobabad air field in Pakistan on November 4, 2001," i1 has been revealed in the Pashto-language book "Mullah Muhammad Omar, Taliban and Afghanistan". Jacobabad airfield was one of the few air bases military ruler Pervez Musharraf had handed over to the US for operations against the Taliban. Mutmain has been one of the Taliban's media persons who remained very close to Mullah Omar and as a confidant attended some important confidential meetings. He also remained a witness to the decision making process of the Taliban leaders on major issues. Therefore, his book offers a unique insight into the thinking process of the Taliban, especially on matters of foreign policy and puritanical injunctions. In the book, the first of its kind, Abdul Hai Mutmain provides new insight into the way Mullah Omar led the Taliban during both its rule in the 1990s and in the period of its re-emergence in the 2000s. The author says, "Karzai remained with the American military at Jacobabad for two weeks but he would tell the media through satellite phone that he is in Uruzgan." The US forces again brought Karzai to Harawat district in Uruzgan at a time when the Taliban war machine had been weakened. Taliban fighters were again sent to target Karzai but the US airstrikes killed several fighters and foiled their attempt to reach Karzai, who was later installed as the Afghan interim leader at the Bonn...
Will Nawaz Submit ‘Tampered Documents’ Before JIT Today?
Abig question surrounding Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s appearance today before the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) is whether he will draw on documents that have been tampered with? Only a day earlier, the JIT brought to the notice of the Supreme Court the institutional impediments that it said were being raised to obstruct investigation. Not only have some government departments gone into a non-cooperative mode, some records related to the Panamagate case were being tampered with, the JIT report to the apex court said. The JIT’s CMA (civil miscellaneous application) in fact prompted Justice Ijazul Ahsan into resonating JIT’s complaint that certain institutions were changing and tampering with the record. “Even forgery has been carried out,” he observed. Addressing Additional Attorney General Waqar Rana, another judge, Justice Sheikh Azmat Saeed, warned of “far-reaching consequences in case of forgery”. The JIT has refrained from naming persons or institutions but those familiar with the investigations back in the 1990s of the Sharifs’ asset believe the JIT made a veiled reference to the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), which during General Musharraf’s tenure conducted exhaustive inquiries into the family accounts. Even before Musharraf, Rehman Malik, PPP's home minister and ex-FIA chief, had made similar inquiries in the early 1990s. Based on conversations with NAB officials late Tuesday evening before and after Iftar dinners, one can assume that this anti-corruption watchdog has been working overtime to "set things right" ahead of Sharif's deposition before the JIT. For understandable reasons these officials cannot be named. If the JIT application and the court proceedings on Monday were any indicator, battle-lines have been drawn between the Supreme Court and the Sharif family. If what has played out in the court so far is real/serious stuff - particularly in view of the critical, if not derogatory, public remarks by PML-N leaders about the conduct of the...
New India is Running Amok
A SMALL event is sometimes more revealing than a cataclysmic one that grabs headlines. Last month, the government-run Indian Institute of Mass Communication in Delhi became the venue for a distasteful display of the ruling BJP’s ideology. The chief speaker at the provocatively titled conclave, ‘Nationalist Journalism in Today’s Context’ was a police officer notorious for his human rights violations in Chhattisgarh state where a Maoist insurgency is under way. As a pointer possibly to how media is expected to behave in these changed times, the event started with a yagna (ritual worship conducted before a fire). The point of this exercise was simply to cock a snook at the media in general and the liberals in particular. As the institute’s director general said dismissively to outraged students, “If you can listen to the Hurriyat, why can’t we listen to Kalluri [the discredited police from Chhattisgarh]?” To be deliberatively provocative is the leitmotif of the Narendra Modi regime which is constantly testing the limits of outrage. The new normal is scary. Attacks on cow traders and dairy farmers have grown bolder by the day and become routine. Demonetisation of last November, unprecedented in its scale, was another such operation. It was not with any idea of unearthing black money or weeding out corruption as Modi initially claimed while withdrawing 86 per cent of the currency in use but a ruthless exercise in social engineering wrapped in the flag of nationalism. The insane measure inflicted untold hardship on the poor and put the opposition politicians and economists on the back foot while the prime minister mocked them for their lack of patriotism for daring to criticise the policy. As the nation muddled its way through the chaos of a policy that changed daily and sometimes several times in a day, Modi used his minister for information and broadcasting M. Venkaiah Naidu to tell Indians that demonetisation was actually aimed at “ushering in a behavioural change at...
Chinese Daily Blames Indian, Western Media for Exaggerating Impact of Quetta Abduction
A Chinese state-run newspaper blamed the Indian and Western media on Tuesday for exaggerating the impact of the abduction of two Chinese nationals in Quetta last month. “Some Indian and Western media intend to exaggerate the impacts of the incident,” the Global Times wrote in its editorial. Lee Zing Yang, 24, and Meng Li Si, 26, were abducted in Jinnah Town of the provincial capital on May 24. Later, the Islamic State terrorist group claimed it had killed the abductees. However, the claim could not be verified as yet. “They aim at badmouthing and disrupting China-Pakistan economic cooperation by linking the terror act caused by religious conflict to the political and economic cooperation between the two countries,” the editorial read. According to the paper, South Korea missionaries misguided the two Chinese nationals into preaching Christianity. “Apart from recruiting young people in China, South Korean missionaries send teenagers to conduct missionary activities in Muslim countries,” it said. “Compared to Chinese, more South Koreans have been killed abroad due to risky missionary activities in conservative regions,” it maintained. “The atrocity committed by the Islamic State is appalling,” the editorial read. “But it cannot drive a wedge between China and Pakistan, nor will the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) be disrupted.” On Monday, Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan was told that the couple belonged to a group of Chinese people who had obtained a business visa for Pakistan but were engaged in “preaching”. However, instead of carrying out any business activity they went to Quetta where they were engaged in evangelical activities under the garb of learning Urdu from a Korean national, Juan Won Seo, who owns the ARK Info Tech Institute. The minister said it was highly unfortunate that a misuse of the terms of business visa contributed to the unfortunate incident of the abduction. He directed secretary interior to investigate...
CHINA WATCH [JUNE 6 – JUNE 12] THE QUESTION OF CHINESE NATIONALS’ SECURITY
The Islamic States (IS) claimed to have killed the two Chinese nationals kidnapped in Quetta on May 24. Pentagon, in its annual report, has reckoned that Beijing was set to expand its military footprint across the globe including Pakistan. Pakistan (as well as India) has become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). A Chinese naval fleet of three warships arrived at Pakistan port city of Karachi for a four-day goodwill and training visit. Chief Minister (CM) of Sindh, Syed Murad Ali Shah has complained that the centre has not taken his provincial government into confidence over Sukkur-Multan highway and other projects being executed under the CPEC. The Question of Chinese Nationals’ Security: In a serious blow to the efforts of Pakistan to ensure the safety of Chinese nationals working on the CPEC projects, the so-called IS claimed to have killed the two Chinese nationals kidnapped in Quetta on May 24.[i] The news outlet of IS, Amaq, said “Islamic State fighters have killed two Chinese people they had been holding in Baluchistan province, southwest Pakistan.” In response to the news, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman, Hua Chunying, told media that Pakistani authorities told Beijing the abducted Chinese national were ‘probably dead’.[ii] She added “[W]e have taken note of relevant reports and we express our grave concern.” On the other hand, Pakistan Foreign Office stated the government was working to confirm the authenticity of the reports of the killings. The statement added “[W]e are in constant contact with the Chinese Government.” It is noteworthy that the IS claim came hours after the Pakistan’s military media wing Inter-Services Public Relations released the details of a three-day operation conducted against IS in Mastung area of Balochistan. The operation that was conducted from June 1 to 3 killed 12 ‘hardcore terrorists, including two suicide bombers’ but could not recover the abducted Chinese nationals.[iii] The incident is...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.