Despite a continued decline in violence annually and quarterly, the first quarter of 2016 saw a slight upsurge of violence, particularly in the Punjab province, when compared against Q4, 2015. Analysts have long predicted that Punjab will be targeted by extremists as their room to maneuver has been systematically choked in other parts of the country, particularly the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Karachi. Following a horrific bombing in Punjab’s capital Lahore on March 27, 2016, that left 72 dead, many of them Christians celebrating Easter, the focus of the anti-extremism drive finally shifted to Punjab. The next quarter will begin to paint a better picture of the efficacy of the Punjab operation, aimed at eliminating both militants and criminals.
While most of the provinces experienced an escalation in violence, the province of Sindh recorded a significant decline in the number of victims of violence during this quarter – an achievement that could be attributed to the ongoing operation in Sindh or to a strategic shift in the policies of the militants. The decline in violence in Sindh, particularly District Karachi – which has historically been the most violent district in the country – puts the total number of fatalities significantly lower than the same time period from 2015.
The first quarter also established that despite government and military claims, terrorists and militants have significant inroads into major population centers and are facilitated by locals. The fact that the terrorists can strike at universities, military and civilian infrastructure, and religious gatherings in the country’s second largest city, is a stark reminder that the fight is far from over.
To assess and evaluate what new challenges and threats are being faced by the country, this report makes use of the national print and electronic media sources. CRSS endeavors to ensure that the data is as accurate as possible within the available resources. However, it does not rule out errors and omissions, which are always a possibility in such statistical work. Such mistakes, nevertheless, do not grossly affect the overall outcome and conclusions of this report.
Readers can approach CRSS for information related to this report. Alternately, you may send your queries to mail@crss.pk, directly to Mohammad Nafees, Senior Research Fellow, CRSS – the author of the report (nafees@crss.pk), or Zeeshan Salahuddin, Senior Research Fellow (zeeshan@crss.pk) – the editor.