Afghan Jihad & Emergence of Transnational Networks
As a follow-up of its activities in 2010, the CRSS has published four research reports that deal with some of the most pressing contemporary issues facing Pakistan. One report lists the causes that impede stability of Pakistan and have been at the heart of the country’s continuous crisis of governance and instability. The second looks at the crisis in the troubled province of Balochistan. The third report offers a brief overview of the socio-political dynamics of Pakistan’s largest city ´ Karachi ´ on the Arabian sea. The fourth report traces the evolution of Afghan jihadist forces into trans-national Islamist networks, led and inspired by Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood.
These reports are an attempt to provide readers interested in the subject with an insight into the inter-play among various socio-political stakeholders in the society.
As far as the ‘Causes of Instability in Pakistan’ is concerned, it lists several factors – the most important structural and triggering causes – that underlie Pakistan’s continuous political turmoil and the economic crisis, accentuated by the questionable war against terrorism that was unleashed almost a decade ago.
This report draws a distinction between ‘structural’ and ‘trigger’ causes of instability. Based on a wide range of interviews with important stake-holders across the social, political, economic and military spectrum, the Centre was able to pinpoint the Objectives’ Resolution, the unbalanced civil-military relations, absence of good governance, inter-provincial disharmony, the armed forces’ predominance of foreign policy, the country’s geography, the vague status of FATA, as some of the structural causes of instability. On the other hand, some of the events of international dimensions such as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the post 9/11 war on terror, Pakistani military operations in the FATA and Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa regions, the tendency among smaller/regional parties like the MQM and the JUI to exploit bigger parties in power-sharing stand out as trigger causes of instability.
(CRSS Research Fellow Amanullah Sipra worked as the main contributor to this report).
The second report ´ ¿Balochistan ´ Pakistan’s Festering Wound– – is an endeavour to go beyond the shallow analysis and provide a critical insight into the sociopolitical dynamics of Pakistan’s geographically largest province. Because of the raging Baloch insurgency, crime, an over-bearing presence of the security forces, and extremely poor governance, this province currently resembles a CRSS ´ 2010 cauldron of multiple conflicts and crises. This report explains some of the determinants of Balochistan’s current crisis such as the Baloch nationalist insurgency, Pashtun nationalist undercurrents, tribalism, involvement of the security forces in socio-political issues and a spate of natural calamities (earthquakes/floods) in the last decade or so. They have resulted in diminishing public trust in the federal government and the army, mistrust of the provincial government, mounting resentment among Baloch nationalists in particular, a spate of political target-killing of settlers (Punjabi and Urdu-speaking communities), sectarian violence (largely targeting the Shi’a Muslims), breakdown of law and order, and the resultant socio-economic crisis, impacting the lives of common people. The primary purpose of this write-up is to look at the Baloch nationalist narrative from a distance, and then attempt to sift facts from fiction.
(Imtiaz Gul was the major contributor to this report).
The third report titled ‘Karachi ´ Seething under Violence and Terror’, critically analyzes the underlying causes of violence and instability in this mega city, which entail grave implications for the national economy, as well as for the local socio-political order.
Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city and the commercial capital, has been in the grip of deadly violence for quite some time. The violence reached alarming levels during 2010, with over 1400 murders, mostly ranked as ‘target killings’ by ethnic groups opposed to each other. Rivalries among major political parties, which vie for protecting and expanding their political and business interests, also lie at the heart of this violence. The chaos and mayhem thus created provides opportunities for other elements ´ sectarian and criminal groups ´ to pursue their agendas. These groups also enjoy political patronage that allows them a huge space to operate with impunity.
(Research Fellow Hira Kashif worked as the main contributor to this report).
The fourth report ¿Afghan Jihad & Emergence of Transnational Networks– examines the role of Islamist networks and the influence that they drew from the Muslim Brotherhood and Al-Qaeda in particular in the Af-Pak region. It also explains how local likeminded outfits used Al-qaeda anti-western jargon to recruit foot-soldiers and also enlist support within the society. These developments not only threw up several new local militant outfits but also helped in the creation of charity organizations which went on to serve as re+cruitment and financial conduits for the radical Wahabist / Salafi reformists.
As a whole these networks have assumed an alarming significance in the poorly-governed and economically struggling segments of the Pakistani and Afghan societies.
(Imtiaz Gul, and CRSS Research Fellows Amanullah Sipra, Hira Kashif and Omer Khitab Orakzai contributed to this report).
The reports areavailable inPDF format on the CRSS website. They can also be requested via email info@crss.pk or mail at House 36-B, Str. 30, F- 8/1, Islamabad, Pakistan.