By: Imtiaz Gul

The veteran Baloch sardar and former chief minister of Balochistan, Sardar Ataullah Khan Mengal, rang the alarm bells again. After his meeting with PML-N chief Mian Nawaz Sharif on December 19 in Karachi, he cautioned that the atrocities against the Baloch havepushed the situation in chronically volatile province to a ¿point of no return–. He reprimanded the Pakistani security establishment, and held ‘the Punjabi army’ responsible forinhuman treatment of the Balochis.

‘Baloch youth don–t want— a Pakistan in which they receive mutilated bodies of their compatriots— they are being systematically eliminated and forced to seek refuge in the mountains,’ observed the founding chief of the Balochistan National Party. It is to be noted that Sardar Ataullah Mengal is one of three sardars in the province, whom former President Parvez Musharraf, termed anti-state. The other two are late Sardar Nawab Akbar Bugti and Sardar Khair Bux Marri.

Mengal also accused Interior Minister Rehman Malik of using bullying language against the Balochis; emulating the tone and rhetoric of former president Musharraf. Against the backdrop of this strident disdain expressed by a sane politician against the federation; one needs to look beyond political narrative of this ever ticking ¿time bomb– of Pakistan. The history of state vs. province relation suggests that despite the efforts by the former to address the thorny issues in the province, the situation on ground never took a turn for the better. And this unfolding fragility of the situation in Balochistan reached to its climax during 2011.

Indubitably the area-wise largest but population-wise tiny Balochistan province most probably as much a microcosm of Pakistan security and political crisis as is FATA; almost 450 murders since January so far; dozens of abductions, and hundreds of attacks on key security and utility installations suggest that the province is currently going through one of the worst phase of its political, economic and security turmoil of its post-Pakistan accession history. Following figures sonorously magnify the soaring instability in the province. (See the chart)

Source:Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS)

Based on the trends CRSS observed that since January this year, one could narrow down the current wave of violence in Balochistan most probably to four key categories i.e. Baloch separatists, sectarian, external and internal forces (security agencies). All of them are so intricately intertwined that no easy deduction is possible for pinpointing the culprits behind most of the violent incidences.

Moreover, the thumping presence and devastating impact of the religious extremists in the province is evident from the fact that the highest number of attacks on NATO supplies were carried out in Balochistan during last four years, ostensibly by Taliban or pro-Taliban elements. The recent unprecedented surge in attacks against the Shia people of Hazara community also bears testimony to the fact that sectarian outfits such as Lashkar-e- Jhangvi are preying upon the undefended segments of society in the province. Pakistani security agencies blame external forces such as Afghanistan, USA and India of stoking and supporting nationalist violence in Balochistan to allegedly force Pakistan into accepting their demands. Many of these demands include seriously clamping down the terrorist organizations such as the so-called Quetta Shura, Haqqani network, and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, which are freely operating in the province.

The nexus between violence and perpetrators have turned so murky and at times overlapping that senior vice president, National Party of Balochistan, Senator Mir Hasil Bizenjo even slated several ministers in Balochistan provincial cabinet for their collusion with the criminals and killers in abductions for ransom, a perception that runs deep across Balochistan.

Sectarian violence, the data suggests, claimedthe second highest number of lives after those caused by the separatist nationalist violence during 2003-2011. Shia Muslims were the prime victims of sectarian attacks and majority of these events occurred in Quetta (237) and Jhal Magsi (36).Although most of the victims were Shia and Sunni Muslims, Hindus also got affected of this violence that forced them to migrate to other parts of the province or the country.There are also some recent media reports suggesting that the people belonging to the Hindu community are migrating to India due to the prevalent precarious security situation in the province. Among different kinds of violence, suicide attacks were the major cause of deaths (150) followed by fatal attacks (114) and bomb attacks (10). Banned militant organizations, namely Taliban, and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, were the ones that often claimed responsibility of such attacks and the sectarian minority Hazara community living in the region was the major victim of this violence.

Against this backdrop of deteriorating law and order situation and the state responses to tackle the challenges, Dr. Malik Baloch, a moderate nationalist leader, flatly dismisses the Balochistan Package, scorns the pre-dominance of the security forces in governance and security matters and considers them as a major source ofdiscontent among the Baloch people in particular. Despite all of these misgivings, Dr. Baloch still pretends to be optimistic. He illustrated recently during aseminar in Islamabad that the dominant majority of the Baloch people are probably still pro-federation, provided that their bruised egos are balmed and their genuine issues are addressed. The present provincial assembly, he lamented, had lost its relevance and only a fresh mandate could probably help restore the Baloch trust in the political system that is leaking and creaking under ubiquitous bad governance, soaring violence and chronic apathy on the part of rulers in Islamabad.

(Imtiaz Gul is the Executive Director of the independent Centre for Research and Security Studies, and a Fellow of International House of Japan / Japan Foundation, Tokyo)