Islamabad (December 28, 2012): Bad governance, mismanagement, deficit legal framework and lack of financial discipline are plunging the state deeper into the abyss. Present government has failed to check the decline in almost every sphere of governance. This was consensus among different experts, academicians and participants at a seminar ¿Audit 2012: Perspectives on Economy, Energy, Rule of Law and Democratization– organized by the Center for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad at Marriott Hotel on December 28, 2012. People from media, legal background academics, civil society, and students participated in the event, which was arranged to look back the progress and setbacks in 2012.
Addressing the seminar, Dr Ishfaq Hassan Khan, Principal and Dean of NUST School of Business said that Pakistani economy has never been in such a bad shape as it is today. He falsified present government stance that it inherited a shattered economy through facts and figures compiled by the government itself, and world financial institutions. ‘Total GDP increased from $60 billion in 2000-01 to $170 billion in 2007. The real GDP growth was seven percent with low inflation during the same period. The government policies contributed in reduction of poverty and improvement of social indicators’ he underlined. The macroeconomic progress, according to Dr Khan, resulted from the implementation of a series of structural reforms during last government era. He observed that with these figures, when a government starts with deception that it inherited ruined economy then we end up 2012 like economic situation. He said that present government replaced four finance ministers, six finance secretaries, four governors of State Bank of Pakistan, and six chairman of Federal Bureau of Revenue in its tenure so far. ‘So when there is no stability in economic management team then how can we have stable economy’, he questioned.
Dr Khan narrated that though there were challenges during the tenure of current government, yet it could address these challenges through better financial discipline and political will. But unfortunately, it failed miserably so far, to address these challenges and the result is 2.9 percent GDP growth. Meanwhile, budget deficit averaged seven percent of GDP; public debt more than doubled in four years. Over 20 billion dollar foreign debt added in four years. Inflation persisted in double digits in 50 months in row. Pak rupee lost 36 percent of its value, noted Dr Khan.
Regarding outlook for coming year, he said that Pakistan economy will grow around three percent of GDP. Investment to GDP ratio will further decline, industrial growth will remain flat, Pakistan will face large financing gap and will not be able to serviceits external debt obligations. Pakistan will have to go to IMF again, he projected. He said that no party will win all out majority and therefore coalition government will further hamper the prospects of reviving economy. He observed that financial discipline will be litmus test for the new government. We have the capacity to recover but need will power and honesty of purpose, he concluded.
Regarding rule of law, Supreme Court Advocate Ahmer Bilal Soofi said that the existing anti-terrorism law of 1997 was made in sectarian context but recent war is launched by the terrorists against state and its people and thus the context has altogether changed. Each of conflicts like in Karachi, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA and Balochistan have different actors and factors involved and so these do demand different legal framework. He underlined that so far the current government has failed to put together a robust legal framework.
He narrated that the government has only made laudable legal effort in FATA by promulgating Presidential Ordinance in the Aid of Civilian Government of 2011. He proposed that the government should take initiative and introduce anti-terror laws at the federal level as well to fight the war on terror on solid legal grounds. ‘Article 5 of the Constitution of Pakistan underlines that every individual has accent to the Constitution and loyalty to the state’, therefore the current government should invoke this Article, he suggested, to answer immediate legal questions arising out of detention and arrest of suspected terrorists. He also appreciated the government for passing much needed Fair Trial Bill 2012. ‘With this bill, we have interceptive law now rather a responsive law’, he said. ‘When there is choice between right to life and right to privacy then the choice should be obvious’, he noted.
Former Chairman National Reconstruction Bureau Danyal Aziz said that although the most important step of the present government was passage was the passage of 18thAmendment, yet the state and society failed to reap the fruits of devolution due to the missing of local government structure. ‘Article 148 of the Constitution says that each provincial government has responsibility to transfer power to electedlocal representatives, but the current government violated this provision by not arranging local government elections in last five years. ‘If we want to address insurgency we need to put in place responsive and effective local government system. Because according to theorists 80 percentcauses of insurgency can be addressed through political intervention and only 20 percent through military’, he suggested.
Energy expert Arshad Abbasi said that oil production has decreased by five percent in last one year and also we are importing oil with impurities due to the reigning corruption in oil and gas sectors in Pakistan. He observed that energy crisis in Pakistan is due to mismanagement and corruption. He disclosed that we have electricity capacity of 235000 MW but we can only generate 14000 MW due to lack of resources and mismanagement, while our demand is 18000 MW. He proposed that the government should invest heavily in hydropower projects rather hugely subsidizing the import of oil.