Farooq Yousaf | CRSS Research Associate
The public uprising against dictatorial regimes in some of the Arab countries is meanwhile known as the Arab Spring. It has become synonymous with protests against regimes in the Arabian Peninsula. The protestsbegan inTunisia in December 2010, and have since spread to Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Syria, Yemen, Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco and Oman. The movement was successful in Tunisia and Egypt, where both President Bin Ali and President Mubarak were ousted amid growing pressure from the masses. The movement also led towards civil war in Libya coupled with civil uprisings in Bahrain, Syria and Yemen. Many minor protests have also been witnessed in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Sudan.
As masses began thronging the Tahrir Square in Cairo late January, many people around the world also began asking whether Pakistan could alsoface a spring of its own. The context obviously was the burgeoning sense of insecurity among the masses, terrorist violence, coupled with the crisis of governance and economy.These tumultuous events also raised a major question: was this all inspired by Al Qaeda or to what extent did this organization impact these events at all? Or was it a spontaneous outpour of craving for democratic rights´regardless of what Al Qaeda and its affiliates have been telling the people all around the world in general, and in the Muslim world in particular?
Origin of the Crisis
The self-immolation of Mohamed Bouaziziin Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia, for his ill treatment by the police laid the foundation for the history books for a new chapter known as the Arab Spring[1]. The first revolution of its kind beganunfolding in Tunisia in January (2011), and was popularly dubbed as ‘Jasmine’ revolution. In this case, twenty six years old Mohamed, a vegetable vendorwas the sole earner for his family of eight. On December 17, 2010, a policewoman confiscated his unlicensed vegetable cart and slapped him forarguing over the issue. Bouazizi in response went to the local administrative headquarters to lodge a complaint, but no one heard him.Within an hour of the incident, he came back with inflammable liquid and set himself onfire.[2], [3]Fighting for his life with 90% severe burns, he died 18 days afterhe torched himself,leaving behind the seeds for a defining revolution for the Arab world. Soon after the event, riots erupted in his native town of Sidi Bouzid. The protests gained momentum and spread like fire to all parts of the country. These protests got an additional push from the prevalent high unemployment rate, rampant corruption, and higher rate of inflation, and lack of freedom of speech in most of the Arab/Muslim societies.[4]
It was nothing less than a scene from a documentary, when scenes of protestors celebrating on Army Tanks in Tahrir Square, Egypt were telecast by media around the globe.[5]Month long camps, sit-ins and protests finally culminated in the departure of President Hosni Mubarik, a move that promised a better and democratic future the masses.The successful movement to overthrow two dictators in a row altered the geo-political and geo-strategic landscape of region and extra-region. Many regimes and allies in Arab world close to the US, have to re-examine their respective foreign policies, in order to incorporate common interests of their people.[6]Ironically, a revolution initially tagged as an agenda-drivencampaign by Al-Qaidaturned to be a movement solely based on a quest for fundamental human and democratic rights and underlined a fatigue with decade-long family dynasties ruling them.[7]It was this craving that drove millions to the streets, and not Al Qaeda trans-nationalist, militant appeal. Bahrain faced similar uprisings like in Tunisia and Egypt, but with the support of Saudi Arabia, and sheer silence by the USA and other advocates of human rights, the regime succeeded in quashing the initial wave of demonstrations successfully. The presence of US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain constituted one major reason for no American, British or German outcry over high-handed quashing of pro-democracy protests in Bahrain.
Al-Qaeda after the Arab Spring
One of the major corollaries to the Arab Spring was Al-Qaida decline in popularity in the region. Al-Qaida and Osama Bin Laden seemed an afterthought during the revolution. There were no banners or posters in support of either Osama or Al-Qaida in Egypt, Tunisia or Saudi Arabia. Occasional images among thousands would appear but that also went unnoticed.[8]The past few months of public upheaval has barely witnessed or heard the Al Qaeda leaders nor did any of the new crusaders for democracy vow revenge on any western country or its leader ´ an inherent ingredient of Al Qaeda political statement. Calls by some for eliminating Western influence from their countries fell on deaf ears. This obviously confronts Al-Qaeda with a new challenge, a challenge expected to be even more daunting inthe post Osama bin Laden-scenario.
The secular Arab revolt was a bolt from the blue for Al-Qaida and all the Muslim extremist groups operating in the region. The leaders ousted amid revolts were on basis of socio-economic issues and basic rights for the masses. These groups are finding it hard to capitalize on this upheaval that allowed them a minimal vacuum to leave their mark during the protests. Although the current situation doesn–t allow the extremist groups to gel with the masses facing enhanced perils, but on the other hand, they may find opportunities in coming months. That is why Al-Qaida seems to have been increasing its efforts in a bid to regain its lost popularity. One of those efforts was in form of an essay written by Anwar al-Awlaki, a Yemeni-American cleric and top propagandist for Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, which American counterterrorism officials consider the most dangerous Al-Qaeda affiliate.In his essay on the online magazine ‘Inspire’ titled, ‘The Tsunami of Change,’ Awlaki highlighted that the protests, by having broken the ‘barriers of fear’ and by ousting seemingly immutable dictators who protected ‘American imperial interests’ in the region, would work to Al Qaeda longer-term political advantage.[9]
In a desperate attempt to regain public attention, Al Sahab, the media wing of Al-Qaida, released Osama audio tape on May 18, by, in which Osama praised the revolts against the regimes of Tunisia and Egypt. In the same message, Osama urged for the need of creating a Muslim Council for revolutionary advice to spread revolts all around the Muslim world.’A delay may cause the opportunity to be lost, and carrying it out before the right time will increase the number of casualties,’ said the message.[10]Zawahiri also tried to get in the act through his message for revolution but his message came just a week before Mubarak was forced out of office. The message was not as intriguing for the Egyptians as it only criticized democracy as a form of government without a major emphasis on success of the Egyptians.Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Brookings Institute, says that in recent years, Al-Qaeda morphed from an organization into an idea, “—and the idea has proven increasingly unattractive to most Arabs,” he quotes. Bin Laden, Hamid says, “presided over Al-Qaeda’s turn toward irrelevance in the past five years.”[11]
In other attempts Al-Qaida militants fought alongside the rebels in Libya and Egypt so as to show support for the movements. It is also trying to fill the chasm left by regime changes, as well as capturing small territories in countries such as Yemen, declaring them as Islamic Emirates so as to stamp their authority. The pro Al-Qaida scholars and clerics have started to speak freely that would also provide a boost to the organization mujahedeen.
Even before the movement, Al-Qaida was losing its appeal among major sections of the society all over the world, where it claimed to be carrying out its activities. The organization ideology was already rejected in Osama homeland of Saudi Arabia and Zawahiri Egypt.The militant activities are mostly carried out by the local extremist organizations such as the Tehrik-e-Taliban in Pakistan, calling Al-Qaida their parent organization and Osama their leader. Al-Qaida of a decade ago was far stronger than the current one, but it does not take out of the equation, the danger posed by even the weaker contingent.
The status of Al-Qaida as a political alternative seems irrelevant in most countries with theexception of Yemen, the only Arab state with a marginal influence of Al-Qaida, though not threatening the regime of Ali Abdullah Saleh.Saleh has been criticized for allowing the militants to capture the area of Zinjibar, so as to distract the protestors from the mass movement. He also claims that without him, Al-Qaida would thrive in the country leading to chaos and anarchy, a ruse that Gadhafi also invoked in an attempt to preempt active US-led invasion of his country. Al-Qaida is only one of the many factors that is taking Yemen towards destruction and motivating the masses to come on the streets. This scenario makes Yemen possiblythe only playing field,along with some regions in Somalia, for Al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations.
The rapid progress of Al-Qaida and other militant contingents, over the years, reflects the failure of Muslim societies as a whole. If revolts and peaceful movements like Arab Spring would have been initiated in the past, it probably would have dealt a severe blow to the militant philosophy of Al-Qaida. Osama bin Laden sole agenda was throwing out Western powers, specifically the USA, from the Muslim countries as the people were not having the courage to do so. Arab Spring has proved that the people had the capacity to do that, and that, too, through non violent means. They have already overthrown two tyrants and are determined to add more to the list.
US Role in Revolts
Though Arab Spring caught US government and policy makers off guard, yet scores of US-based rights– groups and organizations played a vital role in this uprising, supporting and training activists on its soil.The New York Times, in an article, written by Ron Nixon of April 14, 2011, noted that ‘even as the United States poured billions of dollars into foreign military programs and anti-terrorism campaigns, a small core of American government-financed organizations were promoting democracy in authoritarian Arab states’. It also indicates the change of US plan for the Middle East, where regime change and replacement of these regimes with US trained democratic leaders seems imminent.[12]Analysts in the US believe that the United States– democracy building and promoting campaigns in the region played a huge role in the whole event. A number of leaders and groups involved in protests received training and financing from the US groups including International Republican Institute, theNational Democratic InstituteandFreedom House, according to diplomatic cables released by Wikileaks.[13]
Arab Spring and Pakistan
The Arab Spring also triggered a debate as to whether something similar was possible inside Pakistan as well. But, viewed against totally different political contexts, such a scenario was never imminent.Many argue that Pakistan, amid all crisis and problems, cannot afford an Arab-like revolution. The debates and statements from world leaders lead us to a single question: Will these revolts reach Pakistan? US Vice President Jo Biden statement of ‘revolts like these may reach countries like Pakistan’ further fuelled the discourse on the possibility of a yet another revolt ´ military or otherwise – in the country. Thus a comparison of antecedent conditions in Pakistan and the Arab States is necessary; Tunisia and Egypt as well as other Arab countries were already suffering under political suffocation for decades, with limited freedom of speech and association. Egypt for decades witnessed autocracy, where Hosni Mubarik, ruling since 1981, being an extension to previous autocratic regimes. Tunisia, also had the same situation, where the country has been ruled by two autocrats, Habib Bourguiba followed byZine el Abidine Ben Ali, since its independence in 1956.
Pakistan, on the other hand, has undergone a various transitions ´ from political to military rule to political during the past six decades; three long military rules (General Ayub Khan, General Ziaul Haq and General Pervez Musharraf), and political governments led by former prime minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, his daughter Benazir Bhutto, and Nawaz Sharif.Almost all forms of governments and all prominent leaders have been tested, with no revolutionary leader in the making. Since its inception in 1947, Pakistan witnessed a strong influence of military establishment in State affairs. Any voice against the establishment in the past was silenced, though the case ´ with the exception of Baluchistan is different now. That province is still reeling under a Balochi nationalist insurgency and a mighty response by the security forces.
Media
Almost unparalleled media freedom is another trait that differentiates Pakistan from the Arab world, particularly since the advent of the private electronic media. Media has recently proved to be a watchdog and source of letting out the frustration, for the masses in Pakistan. It is a conduit for public anger and sentiments. A country like Pakistan, where countless factions with vested interests have divided supporters, can hardly see a united revolution like protest. The regional diversity in Pakistan is unlike Tunisia and Egypt, where majority of the population belongs to single race and ethnicity.
Interestingly, a story published on Asian Correspondent, posted by ‘Pakistan Voice’, elaborates speaks of an event where leaders and fighters from the Arab revolution were invited to Lahore by ‘Khudi Pakistan’, scheduled to be held at the office of South Asia Free Media Association. Just a day before the event, the participants received a message for the organizers that the event had to be postponed due to security threats in the area. That is why, an intriguing title was given to the article; Arab Spring Postponed in Pakistan.[14]
Likewise, according to a recent report in a leading Pakistani daily,Express Tribune, Hizb ut-Tahrir, the radical pro-Caliphate outfit, was making efforts to imitate the revolt models of massive uprisings of Tunisia and Egypt in Pakistan earlier this year. ‘They wanted an Arab spring in Pakistan,’ said an official familiar with the secret inter-departmental letter, circulated among the Punjab police, the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and the government in April this year.[15]In the pastHizb ut-Tahrir regularly distributed pamphlets and leaflets in middle and upper-middle class residential areas of large cities in Pakistan. And this activity got sudden impetus in the backdrop of the successful uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. In its pamphlets, Hizb ut-Tahrir specifically targeted the armed forces, middle and lower middle class, and especially the youth, ‘to make a concerted effort to get rid of the government, citing the example of Tunisia’. The case of the arrest of a serving army Brigadier Ali Khan and four unknown Majors, back in May 2011, validates the fact of penetration of ultra-conservative group into armed force– ranks clear.
Judiciary
But in reality, that is hardly enough to be compared to what the Arab states have gone through. And also, one has to bear in mind, that lone incidents such as this do not necessarily be taken as representative of the Pakistani political landscape. More importantly, Pakistan judiciary has emerged as a strong check on arbitrariness of the government, particularly since the restoration of judges whom general Musharraf had suspended in November 2007. The judiciary in Pakistan also is seen as the ultimate source of relief to injustice and excesses of state institutions, and therefore works as a ventilator of anger and frustration directed against the government and the ruling elite.
Analysts around the world fear that following bin Laden elimination as well as the overshadowing of Al-Qaida message by the Arab Spring ´ something that the Washington Post also reported in its July 26th edition – it will look to find a foothold in volatile countries like Pakistan.Albrecht Metzger, an expert on Islam, also fears that after failure in the Gulf, Al-Qaida next target could be Pakistan, which has weak democratic structures. He quotes, “It’s a very important country for Jihad because radical Taliban there are taking over power or at least dominating the social and political structures in the country. I think that will be an important battlefield for al-Qaeda. Not the Arab world, at least not for the moment.”[16]
Conclusion
Al-Qaida threat to the Arabs was long dying and the Arab Spring proved to be the last nail in their coffin. It is a positive sign that the harbingers of change in the region are ambassadors of peace and prosperity. The Arab spring that originated in Tunisia and seems to be knocking at the power houses in Tripoli, is rightly called thespring that has brought about a change that no one had expected in such a short span of time. It also proved that the Arabs of today still embody the spirit of their ancestor revolutionists like Jamal Abdel Nasir.The democratic-cum-social revolution seems to have caught Al-Qaida off guard, making it mostly an irrelevant phenomenon in the region. The dawn of a peaceful yet influential revolution, it seems,forecloses much of the space for any inculcation of Al Qaeda extremist philosophy and ideology among the Arabs.Pakistan may also take a leaf out of it, where common people have begun talking in terms of a revolution, largely inspired by the events in the Arabian Peninsula. But given the opportunities of ventilation ´ elections, media and a largely independent judiciary ´ Pakistan is still way off from the point where public anger could translate in to a boiling Spring.
No doubt, however, that the Arab Spring certainly stands out as a strong message to all the violence driven extremist organizations that change could effectively be brought through non-violent movements.
About the Author: Farooq Yousaf recently completed a researchreport at the Centre for Research and Security Studies. The focus of his research was to address issues related to the Arab Spring such as Al Qaeda’s relevance to the Middle East and to Pakistan. CRSS is posting this Special Report for the benefit of all those eager to find out whether the events in the Arab Penninsula could potentially have some repurcessions for Pakistan as well. Editor
Notes
[1]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring
[2]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Bouazizi
[3]http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2044723,00.html
[5]http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/booksblog/2011/apr/18/arabic-fiction-revolution-spring
[6]http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/15/tunisia_and_the_new_arab_media_space
[8]http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2068931,00.html
[10]http://mespectator.blogspot.com/2011/05/arab-spring-al-qaeda-are-incompatibe.html
[11]http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2068931,00.html
[12]http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/15aid.html?_r=4&pagewanted=1&emc=eta1
[14]http://asiancorrespondent.com/58400/the-arab-spring-postponed-in-pakistan/