If Turkey couldn’t hold on to neutrality b/w US & Russia, time is close enough for us too to be asked directly- either you are with us or with China!
Pakistan is among the frontline states in the China-U.S. contest for influence in Asia. As Washington cements its strategic partnership with New Delhi, Islamabad’s growing tilt toward Beijing is raising concerns in Western capitals.
Last month, the United States joined India in calling out Pakistan for terrorism, indicating a clear shift in Washington’s South Asia policy toward deprioritizing Pakistan. With India-U.S. relations entering a “transformational moment,” Pakistan’s response to the great power rivalry is becoming clearer. Despite denouncing repeatedly, the idea of joining “bloc politics,” Islamabad appears to be pivoting toward Beijing.
The Discord Leaks: Pakistan Tilts to China
In April, leaked U.S. documents revealed that Pakistan’s state minister for foreign affairs, Hina Rabbani Khar, had advised Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to avoid “appeasing the West” at the expense of a “real strategic partnership” with China. The memo, titled “Pakistan’s Difficult Choices,” argued that Pakistan can no longer try to maintain a “middle ground” between China and the United States.
Notably, Pakistan declined two consecutive invitations to attend the United States’ Summit for Democracy – ostensibly because the events included Taiwan and excluded China – while attending similar events on “Democracy” and “Shared Human Values” in Beijing. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir has visited China, while a visit to the United States is not even under discussion.
Wearied by Washington’s costly security-centric approach, Islamabad’s turn toward China’s economics-driven diplomacy offers greater hope for Pakistan.
Making a Choice?
Despite that, there is a hesitancy to completely abandon Pakistan’s relationship with the United States. In a recent interview, Khar expressed Pakistan’s concerns about the possibility of a complete rupture between China and the United States, which may force Pakistan into an undesirable binary strategic choice. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s defense minister, echoed similar sentiments, arguing that Pakistan should not be pushed to make difficult choices.
Although, recently the U.S. has tilted toward Pakistan’s arch-enemy, India, forging regional coalitions such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) to counter China. Rallying allies against Pakistan’s “all-weather” friend China is a residual burden in the relationship; it is rather Washington’s arming of India and the resulting disruption of regional strategic balance in South Asia that upsets Pakistan.
Relations With China: Necessary But Insufficient
Pakistan’s relations with China are unprecedentedly consistent, with both countries describing their ties as an “all-weather strategic cooperative partnership.” However, China’s support has been less “all-weather” when it comes to the burgeoning trade deficit that results from the unequal free trade agreements, which significantly favors China’s exports over Pakistan’s. Hence, Pakistani officials, including those in the military, need to realize that there are limits to this friendship.
Relations With the US: Uncertain But Essential
Pakistan has historically been the United States’ “most allied ally” in the Cold War, and a “Major Non-NATO ally” in the recent war on terror. However, as Washington grows wary of China’s rise and aligns with India as a counterweight, Pakistan-U.S. ties have become increasingly turbulent.
However, the floating notion in Islamabad that reliance on China necessitates degrading ties with the United States is untenable. The U.S. wields influence over international financial institutions; Washington’s recent help in securing an IMF agreement is case in point.
Furthermore, although currently suspended, Pakistan stands to benefit significantly from the U.S. military aid, which it may seek to resume in future.
Pakistan’s Moment of Choice Is Far From Here
Pakistan’s threat perception of India and quest for support over its core issues, such as Kashmir, have shaped the trajectory of its great power relations.
On the Kashmir dispute, China is closer to supporting Pakistan’s position. Meanwhile, Washington is far from supporting Pakistan’s position on Kashmir or even questioning India’s human rights record in the region.
The United States should aim at balancing between competing with China in political and strategic terms and pursuing tactical cooperation with Beijing on issues of immediate importance, such as preventing war between India and Pakistan and countering terrorism in Afghanistan.
For Pakistan, a strategic courtship with China is necessary, but it alone is insufficient to address its economic and security challenges. Given limited alternatives, Pakistan also needs the U.S., an important economic partner, and traditionally a valuable security provider, to evade the impending crises at home and challenges abroad. Therefore, maintaining ambivalence, even when China is rising and the United States is no longer an unchallenged superpower, is crucial for Pakistan’s interests.
Courtesy: The Diplomat