Executive Summary:
The area under opium poppy cultivation increased by 10% in 2016
The total area under opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan was estimated at 201,000 hectares (182,000 – 221,000) in 2016, which represents a 10% increase from 2015. Strong increases were observed in the Northern region and in Badghis province where the security situation has deteriorated since 2015.
In 2016, 93% of the total opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan took place in the Southern, Western and Eastern regions of the country. The Southern region accounted for 59% of the total cultivation; the Western for 25% and the Eastern for 9%. The remaining regions (Northern, NorthEastern and Central) together accounted for 7% only.
Hilmand remained the country’s major opium poppy cultivating province (80,273 ha), followed by Badghis (35,234 ha), Kandahar (20,475 ha), Uruzgan4 (15,503 ha), Nangarhar (14,344 ha), Farah (9,101 ha), Badakhshan (6,298 ha) and Nimroz (5,303 ha). In 2016, the number of poppy-free provinces in Afghanistan decreased from 14 to 13. Opium poppy cultivation in Jawzjan, in the Northern region, was estimated at 409 hectares and this province lost its poppy-free status, which it had regained in 2008. All regions except the Southern region experienced an increase in opium poppy cultivation in 2016, with the largest relative increase being in the Northern region (+324), followed by the North-eastern (+55%), Eastern (+44%), Central (+24%) and Western (+15%) regions. Cultivation in the Southern region stayed practically stable (-1%). The largest absolute increases took place in the Western and Northern regions, where, respectively, 6,759 and 6,076 more hectares were under opium poppy cultivation.
The main opium poppy-growing provinces showed diverging trends. Opium poppy cultivation rose in Badghis (184%), Nangarhar (+43%) and Uruzgan (+37%) whereas decreases were seen in Farah (-57%), Nimroz (-40%), Hilmand (-7%) and Kandahar (-3%).
Total eradication of opium poppy decreased by 91%
A total of 355 hectares of poppy eradication was carried out by the provincial Governors in 2016, as verified by MCN/UNODC. This represented a decrease of 91% from 2015 when 3,760 hectares were eradicated (verified by MCN/UNODC). In 2016, eradication took place in 7 provinces (compared to 12 provinces in 2015): Badakhshan, Kandahar, Laghman, Nangarhar, Nimroz, Sari Pul and Takhar. Most of the poppy eradication took place in Badakhshan province (270 hectares; 78% less than in 2015). No eradication took place in the provinces with high levels of opium poppy cultivation due to the extremely poor security situation in those areas and logistical/financial challenges to organize the eradication teams on time. In 2016, farmers’ resistance against poppy eradication operations was occasionally expressed through direct attacks on eradication teams. During the eradication operations 8 persons (1 ANA officer and 7 insurgents) were killed and 7 persons were injured (2 ANA officers, 1 ALP officer, 1 ANP officer and 3 insurgents).
Potential opium yield and production increased in 2016
In 2016, the estimated potential opium production in Afghanistan amounted to 4,800 tons (4,000- 5,600 tons), an increase of 43% from its 2015 level (3,300 tons). The average opium yield was 23.8 kilograms per hectare, which is 30% higher than in 2015 (18.3 kilograms per hectare). There were no widespread reports of any diseases affecting the quality of the opium poppy crop.
The increase in potential opium production in 2016 is only partly explained by the larger area under opium poppy cultivation. The most important driver is the higher opium yield per hectare. The largest yield increase occurred in the Western region where the average yield grew by 37% (16.1 kg/ha in 2015 to 22 kg/ha in 2016) and the Southern region, with a 36% rise (from 16.3 in 2015 to 22.3 kg/ha in 2016). Since these two regions account for 84% of the total opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, the yield increases in these regions had a strong impact on the national potential opium production.
There are some limitations in these estimates since the yield survey was not implemented in all main cultivating provinces for security reasons. For the provinces not covered, the regional average was used. There are indications that the regional average may not reflect the situation in some of the provinces not included in the survey. In Badghis for example, a yield survey could not be implemented, but a comparison of the quality of the crop as observed on satellite images indicated that the potential opium yield might have been higher than the yield in other Western provinces used to calculate the regional average. As Badghis is the province with the second largest area under opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, this suggests that the national potential opium production in 2016 could be an underestimation.
The Southern region continued to produce the majority of the opium in Afghanistan, accounting for 54% of national production,. With 24% of national production, the Western region was the country’s second most important opium-producing region in 2016, followed by the Eastern region (12%) and Northern region (6%).
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