Afghan Weekly (Oct 29 – Nov 5, 2016)

The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), in its 33rd quarterly report to Congress, revealed that “Of Afghanistan’s 407 districts, 258 districts were under government control (88 districts) or influence (170), 33 districts were under insurgent control (8) or influence (25), and 116 districts were ‘contested.'”[1] Last week on October 23, the Afghan Ministry of Counter Narcotics and the UNODC released its Afghanistan Opium Survey which reported a rise of 43 per cent in the illicit production of opium in Afghanistan in 2016, compared with the 2015 levels. The area under opium poppy cultivation had also increased to 201,000 hectares (ha) in 2016, a rise of 10 per cent compared with 183,000 ha in 2015.[2] As Taliban have advanced their control across Afghanistan, the Afghan government’s challenges have doubled. This week’s update on Afghanistan’s security, economy, governance, international engagements, socio-economic development and other issues follows below.

A Security Overview: Daesh, Taliban and Afghan Security Forces & Security Operations

Rising Daesh Activity in Nangarhar Province of Afghanistan

The deputy speaker of the Wolesi Jirga, Zahir Qadir, on October 29, stated that “They [Daesh] have taken control of a very sensitive and strategic area. They have decided to enter Tora Bora and if they enter Tora Bora, they will build a Khorasan caliphate.”‎
Washington also warned that Daesh after being suppressed in Iraq and Syria is trying to find its footprint in other areas where there is little government control. “As it is chocked off in places like Iraq and Syria, that it is trying to as I said create affiliates or to establish itself in other ungoverned spaces and as much as we see that, (we) will take action to take out senior leadership of these groups,” said U.S State Department spokesman Mark Toner.

Meanwhile, Defense Ministry spokesman Dawlat Waziri said: “The air and ground operations and commando operations are ongoing against Daesh in Nangarhar. We are chasing Daesh every day and will eliminate them wherever they appear.”[3]

Dozens of Afghan troops surrender to Taliban in central Uruzgan province – October 29, 2016

A local government official revealed on October 31 that as Taliban continued to gain ground throughout the country, dozens of Afghan troops surrendered with large amounts of military equipment to the Taliban in central Uruzgan province. A Defense Ministry spokesman acknowledged that the troops were now in Taliban custody but disputed the characterization of their action as surrender, suggesting instead they might have been captured. The Taliban had surrounded the troops’ base in Chori district for more than a month, preventing food and support from reaching them, said the high-level official with direct knowledge of the situation who was not allowed to speak to the media about the incident.

The soldiers were taken into Taliban custody on October 29, a day before the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction released data showing the Afghan government had lost control of or influence over more than 2 percent of the territory it controlled between May and August. Overall, about a third of the country is under insurgent control or at risk of falling to their control, the report said.[4]

Questions raised over Government’s War Management Strategy – October 29, 2016

As Afghans continue to grapple with mounting security threats, members of the Wolesi Jirga (Lower House of Parliament) on October 29 raised questions over government’s war management strategy on the battlefields. The lawmakers said the security leadership has not enough potential to lead the forces in their campaign against militants. They vowed to take harsh stance against the leadership of security agencies over their failure to curb scale of violence. “The Afghan army is coping with problems including our police. Today only 67 percent of the army is operational which means another 43 percent is not on duty,” said Arif Rahmani, an MP. “Only five camps are now operational in Uruzgan where they fight the Taliban and there is no police,” another MP, Obaidullah Barekzai, said.[5]

The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan (SIGAR) Releases 33^rd Quarterly report – October 30, 2016

The report reveals Afghanistan’s security forces battling the resurgent Taliban have suffered around 15,000 casualties, including 5,523 fatalities in the first eight months of 2016.[6]

Suicide Attack in Eastern Afghanistan – October 31, 2016

A suicide bomber killed six people and wounded six others at a meeting of tribal elders in the eastern province of Nangarhar on October 31. The Islamic State (IS) extremist group claimed responsibility for the October 31 in a statement in issued in Arabic language, stating that the attack had left at least 15 people dead and several others wounded. The statement further added that the attack was carried out by the group’s fighter Salman Al-Khurasani, targeting the Pacher Agam district elders in south of Jalalabad city.[7] Attaullah Khogyani, spokesman for the governor of Nangarhar, said elders had gathered in Jalalabad, the capital of Nangarhar Province, to settle a dispute when the bomber blew himself up.[8]

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani condemned the attack and stated that the targeting of innocent civilians was a big crime.[9]

19 Lashkar-e-Taiba Militants killed in airstrikes by Afghan Forces – October 31, 2016

On the same day, Afghan government said at least 19 Lashkar-e-Taiba militants were killed and eight others wounded in the airstrikes in Dangam district of eastern Kunar province, bordering Pakistan. This signaled a major crackdown on the terror group operating from across the border.[10]

21 Insurgents Killed in Faryab Operation – November 1, 2016

At least 21 insurgents were killed in an air and ground forces’ military operation Farah province as revealed in a statement by 209 Shaheen Military Corps on November 1. The operation was carried out in Khwaja Sabzposh district in the province in order to clear the area of insurgents, the statement added. There was no civilian and military forces casualty in the operation, it said. The operation was launched after insurgents increased their activities in Ghormach, Qaisar, Pashtoonkot and Khwaja Sabzposh districts of the province.[11]

ISIS group commander arrested during an operation in eastern Nangarhar Province – November 1, 2016

A group commander of the loyalists of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorist group was arrested during an operation in eastern Nangarhar province of Afghanistan on November 1. The ISIS commander, Sefatullah, was arrested by the counter-terrorism forces of the Ministry of Interior of Afghanistan.[12]

47 Taliban Insurgents Killed in Kunar Attack – November 1, 2016

At least 47 Taliban insurgents were killed by security forces after they attacked Dangam district of eastern Kunar province on November 2, according to local officials. In addition, 12 other insurgents were injured. Military officials believe that cooperation among the security forces in Dangam resulted in the heavy casualty toll. “The insurgents had planned a big attack in Dangam, Asmar, Watarpoor and Sarkano districts of Kunar but fortunately our brave security forces repelled their attacks in the province,” Provincial Governor Wahidullah Klimzai said.[13]

Insurgents Do About Turn After Joining Peace Process In Jawzjan – November 1, 2016

A group of 11 insurgents who joined government’s peace process recently changed their minds and re-joined the Taliban on November 1, local officials said. The group was tasked with controlling a check post after joining the peace process. However they deserted their post to rejoin the insurgents and took all their military equipment with them, said police security official, Abdul Hafiz Khashi.

“There are a lot of issues in the peace process and those who are joining the process [government] are not addressing them. We are asking government to put in place a basic program,” the head of peace committee Mawlawi Mohammad Akram said. In recent years many small groups of insurgents have joined the peace process but reports indicate that a lot have rejoined insurgents groups.[14]

Haqqani, Taliban Commanders Killed in Paktika Special Operation – November 2, 2016

A key Haqqani network commander and Taliban’s shadow deputy governor for Paktika were killed during a special operation by security forces on November 2, the Minister of Interior in Afghanistan said in a statement. The first operation was launched on 1^st November in Sardani Hindi village of Warmmi district of Paktika in which the Haqqani network commander and three other insurgents were killed. This comes after 46 other insurgents including Taliban’s shadow deputy governor for Paktia were killed in an airstrike in Tandi Boza village of Tarwa district of the province. There were no casualties among civilians or military forces in the operations.^{^[15]}

Almost 30 Civilians killed in Kunduz Operation in addition to three Afghan Commandos and two U.S Special Forces – November 3, 2016

Kunduz Governor Assadullah Omarkhail confirmed on 3^rd November that close to 30 civilians were killed and dozens wounded in the joint Afghan and U.S military operation in the Boz Kandahari area in Kunduz overnight Wednesday. He also said 28 Taliban fighters had been killed – an increase in the earlier toll of 14. Ministry of Defense spokesman Dawlat Waziri confirmed earlier that three Afghan commandos and two U.S Special Forces were also killed in the military operation.[16]

Airstrike killed 6 ISIS loyalists in Nangarhar Province of Afghanistan – November 3, 2016

At least 6 loyalists of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorist group were killed in an airstrike in eastern Nangarhar province of Afghanistan on November 3. The Ministry of Defense (MoD) said Thursday that the airstrike was carried out in Pacher Agam district. The Defense Ministry further added that 6 loyalists of the terror group were also wounded in the airstrike without giving further information if the strike was carried out by the Afghan Air Force or the US forces based in Afghanistan.[17]

Hekmatyar’s Name Should Be Removed from UN Blacklist, says Karim Amin, head of Hizb-e-Islami’s negotiations delegation

It is reported that the NUG has asked Hizb-e-Islami to issue an official statement on cutting its relations with other terrorist groups and government will not ask the United Nations to remove its sanctions from Hekmatyar as long as the statement is issued. However, Hizb-e-Islami says they have mentioned their commitments clearly in the peace agreement and the issuance of a statement is not required.[18]

Afghan, UN Officials Discuss Plight of Journalists

As the world marks the International Day to end impunity for crimes against journalists, Afghan and United officials called for all necessary measures to be taken to ensure the safety and security of the journalist community in Afghanistan. A special ceremony to mark the occasion was held in Kabul on November 2 where Afghan and foreign dignitaries discussed the overall challenges currently facing Afghan journalists. President Ashraf Ghani’s advisor for public relations and strategy Nadir Nadiri had earlier stated that at least 700 cases of violence against journalists had been recorded by the attorney general in 15 years and that the culture of impunity for crimes against journalists is still in place. The gathering was also attended by the deputy of the UN’s special envoy for Afghanistan and UNESCO officials.[19]

Update on The Afghan Refugees’ Crisis

Pakistan to deport Afghan who was once refugee icon

Sharbat Gula – the green-eyed “Afghan girl” whose portrait featured on the cover of a National Geographic magazine in 1985 and who became a symbol of the refugee crisis caused by decades-long conflict in her country – will be deported from Pakistan to Afghanistan after a court found her guilty of obtaining a fake Pakistani identity card.

Gula’s sentence on Friday, which included a 15-day prison term and $1,000 fine, was much less than expected for using fraudulent identity papers, which normally carries a 14-year jail term. According to Afghan consulate official Abdul Hameed Jalili, Gula will be released from detention after three days as she has already spent more than 10 days in prison since her arrest last week.[20]

Update: Nat Geo’s ‘Afghan girl’ Sharbat Gula will not be deported, says government official Shaukat Yousafzai on November 5

Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf chairman Imran Khan also requested KP Chief Minister Pervez Khattak to not deport Sharbat Gula. KP’s home department, following the decision, has also stopped implementation of the decision to deport her.[21]

Afghan Refugees’ Repatriation Process in Pakistan

On October 31, The Express Tribune reported the Chief Commissioner of Afghan refugees, Dr. Imran Zaib, as saying that Pakistan was considering a UN refugee agency’s proposal to temporarily to suspend the ongoing repatriation of Afghan refugees. “Apart from UNHCR, a few mainstream political parties have also asked the federal government to put off the repatriation process for three months,” Dr. Imran Zaib stated. UNHCR officials have cited financial constraints for the proposal. Dr. Zaib told The Express Tribune that if the demands were met, the last date for the repatriation, March 31 2017, would also be extended by at least three months.

Officials on both sides of the border had warned that uninterrupted repatriation would result in loss of human lives. Harsh winter temperatures in both Pakistan and Afghanistan have been another reason for the call for the delay. However, Dr. Zaib stated that over 500,000 Afghan refugees had already returned to their homeland during the ongoing repatriation process. [22]

Pakistan’s Government Puts Afghan Repatriation Plan on Hold

On November 3, 2016, the federal government put off a decision on crafting a comprehensive strategy for the repatriation of millions of Afghans sheltering in Pakistan for over three decades. “The cabinet meeting postponed the decision in order to allow all political parties and stakeholders to be consulted so that a consensus can be reached,” Minister for States and Frontier Regions Lt-Gen (retd) Abdul Qadir Baloch told The Express Tribune.

The summary that was finalized on the basis of consultations with a select group of politicians carried several suggestions. One of them is allowing Afghan refugees to stay in the country until 2021. In order to defuse tensions between the two neighbors, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had extended their stay till March 2017. According to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), Pakistan currently hosts around three million Afghan refugees. Of these, 1.6 million are registered.[23]

EU Deportation of Migrants Adds to Afghanistan’s Instability, says the United Nations

Top UN human rights expect, Chaloka Beyani, has warned that the European Union’s plan to deport Afghan asylum seekers will not only leave tens of thousands of migrants in despair in Afghanistan, but will also undermine security in the war-torn country. “Sending them back now clearly adds to instability,” Chaloka Beyani, UN special rapporteur on the human rights of internally displaced persons, said during a recent visit to Afghanistan. “These people cannot be absorbed into Afghan economic and social life. The government clearly says, ‘Look, we don’t have the capacity’.”

This year, 411,327 Afghans have been newly displaced by the conflict, according to UN figures. Another 509,150 Afghans have been ordered to leave Pakistan, bringing the number of “people on the move” inside Afghanistan to almost two million, the highest since 2002. The recent EU deal with Afghanistan would put further pressure on the Afghan economy and labor market, strain resources and, according to analysts, might push young men into the ranks of the insurgents. To settle debts, or merely sustain them, some families have resorted to marrying off daughters at a young age, said Beyani.[24]

Economy & development

Financial Losses Due to Insurgent Activities Should Not Be Ignored

Shahussain Murtazawi, deputy spokesman for President Ashraf Ghani, said on October 29, that the Afghan people and government have lost more than 2 billion Afs due to the ongoing war in the past two months. “With the closure of every school, thousands of children have been deprived of their primary right. With the closure of every medical center, thousands of people have lost access to health services. One thing that never is considered, is the hidden dimension of terrorists’ war in the country,” Murtazawi said. Government statistics show that in the past two months, nearly 300 schools, 41 medical centers and more than 7,000 houses and shops have been burned by insurgents and 50 mosques and 170 bridges have been destroyed and more than 100 kilometers of road has been destroyed due to roadside mines.[25]

Afghanistan launched fish farming in mega $300m Salma Dam built by India

On October 29, Afghanistan has launched the fish farming (pisciculture) in the mega Salam Dam built with the financial support of India in western Herat province of Afghanistan. The Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock of Afghanistan (MAIL) said at least 50,000 fingerlings were released in the dam to start the fish farming.[26]

Kabul’ Growing Wealth Gap Revealed

The international community granted nearly $63 billion USD for non-military purposes over the past 15 years to Afghanistan, but still, 39 percent of the population is living below the poverty line.

According to a report released this week, there are many families in the capital city, Kabul, who are struggling to make ends meet and feed their families.[27]

International Engagements

Afghanistan, Iran agree to establish Joint Committees

On November 1, Afghanistan and Iran signed Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) on establishing three joint committees to expand ties in the spheres of security, culture and economy. The MoUs were signed between Herat Governor Mohammad Asif Rahimi and Iran’s Razavi Khorasan province governor Alireza Rashidian.

The Herat governor told his Iranian counterpart the committees’ establishment would play an effective role in strengthening relations between the two countries. Under the MoUs, brotherhood ties will be promoted between Herat and Mashhad, the Razavi Khorasan capital, tourism and archeology departments will be established at the Herat University, education courses for teachers and Herat experts will be conducted and a joint health and treatment centre will be established.[28]

Governance

Political Leaders Call for End of Rift Between Ghani, Abdullah

A number of political party leaders and parliament members stated this week that the continued tension between the national unity government’s (NUG) leaders will put the country in serious jeopardy. They called for the two leaders to put an end to their differences. ‎

Gilani said these tensions will create further challenges for the NUG. “The people who criticize government’s work are actually working in government and get millions of Afs in salaries every month. If they do not want to work in government, then they should resign from their posts,” Gilani said.

“The president expects that his colleagues should feel responsible and do their job. We are accountable to the constitution and to the people and history will judge the performances of NUG leaders,” said Shahussain Murtazawi, deputy spokesman for the president.[29]

Attorney General Vowed Zero Tolerance towards Corruption

Attorney General (AG) Mohammad Farid Hamidi on Monday stressed the delivery of full justice even in rebels’ related cases, saying the Attorney General’s Office (AGO) had ordered all prosecutors to disclose attempts at interferences in their affairs.[30]

Women in Afghanistan

Jawzjan Women Pick Up Arms To Fight Insurgent

A number of women picked up arms in Darzab district in Jawsjan in order to fight insurgents in the province on November 1. Local officials said the women took the decision after the insurgents’ oppression surged on them and their family members were killed by Taliban and Daesh militants. “At least 15 women have picked up weapons in Darzab district to fight against Taliban and Daesh insurgents and the security forces have praised their courage,” a spokesman for Provincial Governor, Mohammad Reza Ghafoori said.[31]

Taliban’s Secret talks in Qatar

On October 22, three senior leaders from Taliban’s Qatar office arrived in Pakistan to “discuss arrests” of several Taliban leaders across the country. “I can confirm that a three-member delegation from the Qatar office arrived in Pakistan two days ago to raise the issue of arrests of Taliban leaders,” a source told The Express Tribune. The delegation comprises of Maulvi Shahabuddin Dilawar, Maulvi Salam Hanafi and Jan Muhammad.

Confirming the delegation’s visit to Pakistan, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid told The Express Tribune that the concerned parties are discussing the “way refugees are treated in Pakistan and the closure of educational institutions for refugees.”[32]

This week, on October 31, two senior Taliban figures said that Pakistan issued a stark warning to the militant group, apparently surprised and angered over being excluded from the insurgents’ secret talks with the Afghan government. They said the Pakistani government warned the Taliban that unless they consult with Islamabad during the negotiations all top Taliban leaders will be forced to leave Pakistan along with their families. The Islamabad ultimatum was given last week to a three-person Taliban delegation visiting Pakistan from Qatar, where the militant group’s political office is located, said the two Taliban figures. Under pressure from both Washington and Kabul to get the Taliban to the negotiating table, Islamabad has been frustrated by the refusal of Taliban leaders living in Pakistan to participate in talks.

Pakistan’s government declined to comment. “We won’t communicate with the Taliban through the media. I have no comment to make,” said Sartaj Aziz, a government adviser on foreign affairs.[33]

This weekly is compiled by Sitwat Waqar Bokhari who is a Research Fellow at CRSS.

Sources:

[1] http://www.businessinsider.com/taliban-is-regaining-control-in-some-areas-of-afghanistan-2016-10

[2] http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/frontpage/2016/October/afghan-opium-production-up-43-percent_-survey.html

[3] http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/28059-qadir-warns-of-rising-daesh-activity-in-nangarhar

[4] www.stripes.com/news/dozens-of-afghan-troops-surrender-to-taliban-in-central-province-1.436682

[5] http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/28093-mps-question-govts-war-strategy-amid-deteriorating-security

[6] https://sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2016-10-30qr.pdf

[7] http://www.khaama.com/isis-claim-responsibility-behind-jalalabad-city-suicide-attack-02189

[8] http://www.rferl.org/a/afghanistan-nangarhar-suicide-bombing-elders/28086517.html

[9] http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/28106-ghani-condemns-nangarhar-attack

[10] http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/let-militants-killed-in-airstrikes-in-afghanistan/article9285595.ece