Second Quarter 2015 – Introduction

A year after the Pakistani military launched the multi-pronged counter-terror Operation Zarb-e-Azb in the North Waziristan region, and nearly six months into the National Action Plan (NAP) since December 25, 2014, two outcomes have become significant. Firstly, an overall reduction in militancy-induced violence, and secondly, the adoption of new strategies by divided and disrupted militants groups, largely operating in the border regions next to Afghanistan. Their sleeping cadres, however, remain active in many urban centers and continue to target state and civilian infrastructure.

The counter-crime operation, spearheaded by the military, in Karachi, the largest city in Pakistan, has had a positive impact on organized crime – a combination of criminal gangs, political patronage and bureaucratic protection. This nexus has had its own debilitating impact on the security landscape because the criminals hooked up with militants – both relying on one another for protection and support.

This way, the Karachi operation, launched in September 2013, symbolizes yet another dimension of the security crisis that Pakistan faces. For the first time in history, Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs) went after the nexus between crime, politics and militancy in a sustained way.

These efforts, in some cases, have run into controversies and invited fierce reaction from various political groups, particularly the MQM and the ruling PPP. Yet there is hardly any denial of the fact that political patronage of crime, facilitation and acquiescence (by the police and bureaucracy) and their linkages with religio-political or religio-militant groups have contributed to the security crisis.

The following statistical review offers a glimpse of the consequences of religious violence, financial and social crime, their links with militants, and foreign-policy induced terrorism. This report also explains how the military-led counter-terror operations in the northwest and the counter-crime crackdown in Karachi, have directly impacted the statistics relating to the security landscape.

Errors and omissions, a possibility in all statistical works, can occur in this report as well.

Report prepared by:

Mohammad Nafees

Senior Research Fellow

Center for Research and Security Studies

NOTE: Readers can approach CRSS for source of any information included in the report. Please send your requests/comments/questions to: mail@crss.pk.

List of Acronyms

#	Acronyms (in alphabetical order)
1	ABMNFM	Amr bil Maroof wa Nahi Anil Munkar (ABMNFM)
2	AC	Apex Committee
3	ACT	Anti-Terrorism Courts
4	ANP	Awami National Party
5	AQIS	Al-Qaeda
6	BLF	Balochistan Liberation Front
7	BRA	Baloch Republican Army
8	BSNM	Balochistan Sub-Nationalist Movement
9	Daesh/IS	Daesh or Islamic State
10	FATA	Federally Administered Tribal Areas
11	FC	Frontier Corps
12	GB	Gilgit Baltistan
13	IDP	Internally Displaced Person
14	IS	Islamic State (Daesh)
15	JSQM	Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mahaz
16	KP	Khyber Pukhtunkwa
17	LEA	Law Enforcement Agencies
18	LeJ	Lashkar-e-Jhangvi
19	LI	Lashkar-e-Islami
20	MQM	Muttahida Qaumi Movement
21	NAP	National action Plan
22	PMLF	Pakistan Muslim League – Functional Group
23	PMLN	Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz Group
24	PPP	Pakistan People’s Party
25	PTI	Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf
26	QWP	Qaumi Awami Party
27	TI	Tauheed-ul-Islam
28	TTP	Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
29	TTP-JA	Tehrik-e-Taliban – Jamatur Ahrar
30	TTP-GB/GR	TTP-Gul Bahadur/Gul Rahman
31	UBA/BLA	United Baloch Army/Baloch Liberation Army

Security Report

Fatalities from Violence

Fatalities from violence during this second quarter (Apr-Jun 2015) were slightly lower than those in the last quarter, 1309 and 1352 respectively[1]. Compared to the fatalities recorded during the corresponding period of last year, there is a 33% reduction this year, a significant improvement in the security situation that can be attributed to the ongoing military operation. However, a major upsurge in violence was recorded in the month of May, when the fatalities from violence went up 20% compared to the previous month (Table 01). The historical data for the last six months shows that the fatalities from militancy doubled from 24% to 48% of the total fatalities in the month of May (Table 02). Following the security agencies’ crackdown, the militancy-related violence also declined by 20% in June.

Table 01: Fatalities from violence – Apr – Jun 2015
April, 2015	410	108	518
May, 2015	488	192	680
June, 2015	411	96	507
Total	1309	396	1705

Table 02: Fatalities from security operations & militancy – January-June 2015
Month	Sec. Op.	Percentage of total	Militancy	Percentage of total
January, 2015	248	51	181	37.09
February, 2015	151	47.3	131	41.07
March, 2015	394	72.3	136	24.95
April, 2015	283	69.02	99	24.15
May, 2015	210	43.03	235	48.16
June, 2015	282	68.61	81	19.71
Total	1568	58.93	863	32.54

A comparison of the data for the last two years suggests a visible decrease in nearly all forms of violence (Table 03). Also, continually changing strategies not only underline incessant pressure by the security agencies but also indicate divisions within militant’s ranks.

In Balochistan, infighting between the two insurgent groups, United Baloch Army (UBA) and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), broke out on June 30 2015 that left 20 persons dead. In North Waziristan, in the heart of the anti-terror military operation Zarb-e-Azb, launched in June 2014, bloody clashes between the militants belonging to Hafiz Gul Bahadur and Mulla Gul Rahim factions left at leave five dozen persons dead.

The most deploring incidents of violence during this period were recorded in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa before and after the local government elections, when nearly 30 persons lost their lives in various incidents of violence. Two years ago, the country had gone through a similar wave of violence during the general elections (pre and post) period. The election rivalry in 2013 had cost 28 precious lives, including nine each in Punjab and Khyber Pukhtunkhwa, followed by Balochistan and Sindh provinces with 6 and 4 deaths respectively.

Table 03: Comparative data on fatality sources – Apr-Jun
Nature of violence	2013	2014	2015
Security operations	298	906	775
Target killings	684	594	182
Militant attacks	328	151	140
Infighting – TTP	0	74	60
Infighting – Gangsters	0	0	1
Infighting – Other	27	0	0
Infighting – UBA/BLA	0	0	20
Other terrorism	246	146	34
Election rivalry	28	0	30
Kidnapping and murder	0	1	2
Drone attacks	28	22	21
Robberies	0	7	18
Infight – unk	6	6	7
Custodial death	1	6	3
Lynching	0	3	3
Accidental explosion	0	0	3
Cross-border attacks	0	6	2
Failed militant attack	0	0	2
Others	13	57	6
Total	1659	1979	1309

Provincially, the highest number of fatalities were recorded in FATA (581), followed by Sindh (354), Balochistan (224), Khyber Pukhtunkhwa (105), Punjab (43), and Islamabad (2) (Table 04-A). The comparative data for the last two years’ second quarters also reflects a downward trend in the number of fatalities in all provinces with the exception of FATA and the Punjab (Table 04-B). In FATA, the death toll remains high due to the ongoing military operation, while the province of the Punjab is affected by the shia-sunni retaliatory militancy and the newer forms of violence which will be discussed in one of the following sections of the report.

Table 04-A: Fatalities from violence in provinces – Apr-Jun 2015
Region	Fatalities	Injuries	Total Casualties
FATA	581	126	707
Sindh	354	18	372
Balochistan	224	70	294
KP	105	172	277
Punjab	43	8	51
Islamabad	2	2	4
Total	1309	396	1705

 

Table 04-B: Comparative data on violence in provinces – Apr-Jun
Region	Fatalities	Injuries	Total Casualties
	2013	2014	2015
FATA	427	854	581
Sindh	616	609	354
Balochistan	231	245	224
KP	351	172	105
Punjab	23	67	43
Islamabad	0	30	2
AJK	0	2	0
GB	11	0	0
Total	1659	1979	1309

On the district level, Karachi recorded the highest number of fatalities from violence during the quarter under discussion, while North Waziristan and Khyber Agency in FATA were the other highly affected areas. The noticeable point is the significant decline in casualties in those districts where the numbers of fatalities have been higher during the past two years or so. Twenty-one districts of the country affected by violence in the corresponding period of 2013, for example, recorded zero violence-related deaths in the last quarter. In 2014, 14 districts had recorded zero fatality rate.

An opposite trend can also be observed in the districts where there were no fatalities in the second quarter of 2013 and which are now showing double digit fatalities off violence (Table 05).

Table 05: Fatalities by district – Apr-Jun
Districts	2013	2014	2015
Karachi	601	541	332
Khyber Agency	193	180	156
Peshawar	150	52	15
Quetta	115	22	32
North Waziristan	89	562	309
Kurrum Agency	89	13	14
Others	79	193	135
Hangu	38	14	0
Mardan	38	0	0
Orakzai	31	0	59
Sibi	24	17	0
Malakand	22	0	0
Nasirabad	19	27	0
D.I. Khan	19	0	0
Bannu	18	0	15
Bajaur	15	29	13
Khuzdar	12	17	0
Dera Bugti	11	34	20
Nanga Parbat	11	0	0
Charsadda	10	12	0
Rawalpindi	9	0	0
Killa Abdullah	9	0	0
Kohat	9	0	0
Karak	8	0	0
Swat	7	21	0
Hyderabad	7	12	0
Shangla	7	0	0
Swabi	7	0	0
Buner	6	0	0
Nowshera	6	0	0
Mohmand	0	35	20
Sukkur	0	34	11
Kalat	0	33	42
Chaghi	0	33	0
Islamabad	0	30	0
South Waziristan	0	28	10
Panjgur	0	21	15
Lahore	0	19	4
Mastung	0	0	35
Turbat	0	0	35
Tank	0	0	15
Sadiqabad	0	0	11
Gwadar	0	0	9
Faisalabad	0	0	1
Nowshera	0	0	1
Total	1659	1979	1309

Table 06 below reflects a significant across-the-country decline in violent incidents during this quarter. From a total of 1022 incidents of violence in the second quarter of 2014, the number of such incidents came down to 465 during this quarter.

Table 06: Comparative data on violence and counter violence – Apr-Jun
Method of Violence	2014		2015
	No. of Incidents	Fatalities	No. of Incidents	Fatalities
Air raids	26	555	17	222
Armed attacks	16	30	18	62
Lynching	2	3	2	3
Bomb defused	23	0	6	0
Bomb explosions	114	72	26	22
Custodial death	4	6	3	3
Clash	23	101	28	232
Dead body found	80	131	38	48
Encounter with LEAs	135	282	118	276
Ground operation	2	31	7	54
Gunned down	378	475	115	143
Hand grenade	28	7	10	11
IED explosion	27	52	17	7
IED defused	10	0	1	0
Landmines	13	19	9	5
Drone attack	3	22	4	21
Mortar	53	1	1	1
Rocket fires	42	32	4	3
Seizure of explosives	8	0	12	0
Suicide attack	10	18	6	13
Toy bomb explosion	3	2	3	2
Indiscriminate firing	22	98	13	67
Gunship helicopter	0	0	2	19
Fighter jets	0	0	1	13
Search operation (other)	0	0	3	27
Abduction/killing of Pashtoons	0	0	1	22
Others	0	42	0	33
Total	1022	1979	465	1309

 Victims of violence in Pakistan

The overall security situation of the country, especially relating to the counter-militancy operations, appears to have improved significantly during this quarter (Table 07). Although the numbers of fatalities of militants and criminals went down significantly in this quarter, the percentage of the total fatalities registered a significant surge. Likewise, the percentage of civilians, security officials and other non-combatant deaths reduced from 47% in the second quarter of 2014 to 36% in 2015, clearly reflecting a marked improvement in the law and order situation in the country.

Table 07: Comparative data of victims of violence
Victims	April – June, 2014		April – June, 2015
	Fatalities	Percentage	Fatalities	Percentage
Militant	886	44.8%	677	51.7%
Civilian	628	31.7%	330	25.2%
Criminal	155	7.8%	158	12.1%
Security official	211	10.7%	97	7.4%
Politician	52	2.6%	37	2.8%
Religious party	29	1.5%	2	0.2%
Government official	8	0.4%	0	0.0%
Religious person	8	0.4%	3	0.2%
Foreigner	2	0.1%	5	0.4%
Total	1979	100.0%	1309	100.0%

A number of culprits involved in mass killings were either arrested or killed. Several members of proscribed organizations were also claimed to have been killed or arrested in different security operations (Table 08).

Table 08: Militant fatalities by affiliation – Apr-Jun 2015
Group	Fatalities
Unknown militants	425
TTP/LI	45
TTP	43
TTP/LI/IS	27
TTP-JA	22
UBA/BLA	20
BRA	18
Labor attacker	13
TTP-Suspects	9
Mustang attackers	7
TTP-Mehsud	6
Al-Qaeda/TTP	5
AQIS	5
LI/ABMNFM	5
TTP-Swat	5
BLF	4
BSNM	4
Wagah attackers	4
Daesh/IS	3
Jinnah Residency attackers	3
Zaman Mehsud Gang	2
LeJ	1
QWP Guard Killer	1
Total	677

The next chapters will review the security situation of the provinces and the changes in strategies that the militants adopted in response to the ongoing security operation under the National Action Plan (NAP).

Casualties of violence in Balochistan

The province of Balochistan experienced a sharp rise in the number of fatalities during this quarter and a major change in the nature of militancy as well. From 151 fatalities in the last quarter, the figure surged to 224, the month of June being the deadliest (Table 09). Much of the violence was directed against the native Pashtoon population. In the past, such crimes were committed against the Shia Hazara or Punjabi settlers. Interestingly, the target was changed but not the modus operandi. As always, the bus passengers were selectively abducted, whisked away to the mountainous areas, and later executed in Mastung[2].

Table 09: Fatalities from violence in Balochistan – Apr-Jun 2015
Month	Fatalities	Injuries	Total Casualties
April, 2015	68	30	98
May, 2015	63	30	93
June, 2015	93	10	103
Total	224	70	294

Although the fatalities from violence went up in Balochistan during this quarter, the number of districts affected by violence declined from 27 in the last quarter to 18 in this quarter. Kalat, Mastung, Turbat, Quetta, Dera Bugti, Punjgur and Gwadar districts remained the highly affected by violence (Table 10).

Table 10: Fatalities in Balochistan by district – Apr-Jun 2015
District	Jan-Mar	Apr-Jun
Loralai	19	3
Kharan	18	0
Quetta	17	32
Dera Bugti	15	24
Panjgur	12	15
Khuzdar	9	0
Mastung	7	35
Awaran	7	4
Turbat	6	35
Zhob	6	1
Kalat	5	42
Gwadar	5	9
Nasirabad	4	2
Nushki	4	4
Chagai	2	0
Killa Abdullah	2	0
Kohlu	2	1
Lasbella	2	0
Pasni	2	0
Barkhan	1	0
Chaman	1	0
Jaffarabad	1	1
Killa Saifullah	1	0
Pishin	1	0
Sibi	1	4
Ziarat	1	6
Bolan	0	4
Hub	0	2
Total	151	221

Over 50% of the victims of violence in Balochistan were militants followed by civilians and security personnel. One political activist belonging to PMLN also lost his life (Table 11).

Table 11: Fatalities in Balochistan by victims – Apr-Jun 2015
Victims	Fatalities
Militants	119
Security official	12
Civilians	92
Political activist	1
Total	224

The heightened activities of the separatist groups continued during this quarter as well, targeting Punjabi and Sindhi workers (20 fatalities), and Pushtun bus passengers (20 fatalities). As many as 14 persons belonging to Shia Hazara community also became victims of target killings in Quetta during this quarter. The security agencies launched counter-strikes, and killed many perpetrators of these crimes. Of the militants killed, 18 were from BRA, 13 were suspected killers of the Punjabi and Sindhi workers, and 7 were suspected of having involvement in the killing of Pushtun bus passengers in Mastung.

Affiliation of fatalities of violence in Balochistan – Apr-June 2015
Affiliation	Apr-Jun
Unknown militants	54
Pushtun bus passengers	22
Punjabi/Sindhi workers	20
UBA/BLA – Infighting	20
BRA	18
Shia Hazara	14
Labor attackers	13
Mustang attackers	7
Police	7
BSNM	4
FC	3
Jinnah Residency attackers	3
Army	1
Levies	1
PMLN	1
Others	1
Total	189

 Casualties of violence in FATA

As many as 581 people, the majority of victims being militants of various affiliations, were reported killed in Khyber Agency and the North Waziristan region. The FATA region suffered a loss of persons during this quarter as a result of military operation and retaliatory acts of violence by the militant groups (Table 12, 13).

The preceding quarter had 612 fatalities[3].

Table 12: Fatalities from violence in FATA – Apr-Jun 2015
Month	Fatalities	Injuries	Total Casualties
April, 2015	211	31	242
May, 2015	189	71	260
June, 2015	181	24	205
Total	581	126	707

 

Table 13: Fatalities in FATA by agency – Apr-Jun 2015
District	Fatalities
Khyber	156
North Waziristan	309
Kurram	14
South Waziristan	11
Bajaur	12
Mohmand	20
Orakzai	59
Total	581

A large number of the victims of violence are identified as unknown militants because of non-availability of the information regarding their affiliation (Table 14). However, they were presumably affiliated with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or Lashkar-e-Islami (LI) since the Zarb-e-Azb operation is being carried out mainly in the areas that are considered to be the stronghold of these two banned outfits and their splinter groups. The highest number of victims belonged to the TTP and the LI that have forged an alliance against the military.

Next to them were 60 persons belonging to the fugitive warlord Hafiz Gul Bahadur and Gul Abdul Rahman groups. But these losses were largely because of infighting between said groups. Members from some other TTP splinter groups were also killed and are identified accordingly in the following table. In retaliation to the military operation, the militants targeted seven members of pro-government Tribal Lashkars (army) that are known as Peace Committees in different locations of the FATA region.

Table 14: Militant fatalities in FATA by affiliation – Apr-Jun 2015
Group	Fatalities
TTP/LI	45
TTP-GB/GR	60
TTP/LI/IS	27
TTP-JA	20
Peace Committee	7
LI/ABMNFM	5
Militants (unknown affiliation)	334
IS	3
TI	1
TTP	21
Total	523

 Casualties of violence in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa

Close to 20% reduction in fatalities from violence were recorded in the province of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa during this quarter (Table 15)[4]. However, the number of injured persons during this quarter was almost 30% higher in comparison to the last quarter.

Table 15: Fatalities from violence in KP – Apr-Jun 2015
Month	Fatalities	Injuries	Total Casualties
April, 2015	20	35	55
May, 2015	45	80	125
June, 2015	40	57	97
Total	105	172	277

Most districts that were found affected by violence during last quarter remained unchanged. However, the number of fatalities declined considerably (Table 16).

Table 16: Fatalities in KP by district – 2015
District	Jan-Mar	Apr-Jun
Peshawar	42	15
Bannu	8	15
Tank	3	15
Peshawar & other areas	0	10
Charsadda	4	9
Dera Ismail Khan	16	8
Haripur	1	8
Swat	9	5
Nowshera	9	4
Kohat	6	4
Karak	2	4
Mardan	3	3
Mansehra	10	2
Hangu	6	1
Swabi	5	1
Bisham	0	1
Batkhela (Malakand)	4	0
Lakki Marwat	3	0
Total	131	105

As opposed to several incidents of terror-related violence that left 28 persons killed in the last quarter in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, there was only one bomb explosion claimed by the TTP. While the militants remained dormant, the other segments of the criminal world became active in the province during this quarter. Rivalries among contesting candidates became quite pronounced in May, when the KP held the first ever local bodies’ elections, that saw about 30 deaths and injuries to 80 persons.

Among the victims of violence, there were civilians (39), political activists (27), security officials (20), militants (16), criminals (2), and others (1). The combined total number of militants and criminals was even less than the number of the security officials who lost their lives in the province during this quarter. It shows that despite having a reduction in the number of total fatalities the security personnel remained under pressure because of the targeted activities of the TTP and LI-linked militants

Casualties of violence in Punjab

Compared to other provinces and regions, Punjab appeared more peaceful during this quarter (Table 18). A nearly 50% reduction in crime rate was recorded during this quarter when compared against the previous one.

Table 18: Fatalities from violence in Punjab – Apr-Jun 2015
Month	Fatalities	Injuries	Total Casualties
April, 2015	4	6	10
May, 2015	22	0	22
June, 2015	17	2	19
Total	43	8	51

The number of violence-hit districts came down from 15 to 11 during this quarter (Table 19).

Table 19: Fatalities in Punjab by district – 2015
District	Jan-Mar	Apr-Jun
Sadiqabad	1	11
Lahore	36	6
Gujranwala	3	6
Faisalabad   (Jaranwala)	12	5
Bahawalpur	1	4
Okara (Renala Khurd)	9	3
Muzaffargarh	0	3
Sargodha	0	2
Daska	2	1
D.G. Khan	0	1
Nankana	0	1
Rawalpindi	10	0
Multan	2	0
Sialkot	3	0
Bahawalnagar	1	0
Kasur	1	0
Wah Cantt	1	0
Haripur	1	0
Khanpur	1	0
Total	84	43

However, the district affected the most by violence during this quarter was Sadiqabad that seldom makes any headlines for criminal incidents. The reason was violent clashes between local LEAs and dacoits/criminal gangs, which culminated in an amnesty deal and a joint combing operation involving some 2,000 policemen.

In the last quarter, four incidents of violence, claimed by different banned organizations, resulted in 29 fatalities. During this quarter only one incident of violence was reported. Claimed by the banned outfit TTP, the victims of this incident were PMLN’s politician and Member Provincial Assembly, Rana Shamshad and his son.

Casualties of violence in Sindh

The casualties off violence in Sindh during April-June 2015 were 372 (354 dead and 18 injured) – Table 20. This is a minor reduction compared to the figure from the last year. However, the number of injuries of went down significantly to only 18, compared to the 145 in the last quarter.

Table 20: Fatalities from violence in Sindh – Apr-Jun 2015
Month	Fatalities	Injuries	Total Casualties
April, 2015	106	6	112
May, 2015	166	10	176
June, 2015	82	2	84
Total	354	18	372

The geographical profile of the violence also underwent a change, as most of the districts found affected by violence during this quarter were different from those that were affected last quarter except Karachi and Mirpur Khas (Table 21). The face-off between the LEAs and dacoit/criminal gangs spilled over into the Katcha areas (irregular settlements, uninhabited forest areas) of Sindh.

Table 21: Fatalities from violence by districts in Sindh – Q1/Q2 2015
District	Jan-Mar	Apr-Jun
Larkana	0	1
Nawabshah	0	1
Hyderabad	0	1
Mirpur Khas	8	3
Umerkot	0	3
Ghotki	0	2
Sukkur	0	11
Karachi	291	332
Shikarpur	63	0
Pano Aqil	4	0
Khairpur	1	0
Total	367	354

The fatalities from nature of violence used in the province of Sindh were significantly lower during this quarter of the year compared with the corresponding period of the last year (Table 22). While the fatalities from target killings came down to 89 from 360 last year, the fatalities from security operations went up 30% during this quarter of the year. The robbery related fatalities have gone up more than 100%.

Table 22: Fatalities by nature of crime in Sindh – Apr-Jun
Nature of crime	2014	2015
Target killings	360	89
Security operations	146	190
Militant attacks	50	53
Infighting	1	2
Terrorism	18	0
Robbery	6	14
Lynching	3	2
Custodial death	0	2
Tribal Feud	10	0
Toy bomb	4	2
Others	11	0
Total	609	354

As a result of the ongoing military operation and other forms of violence in Karachi, a number of persons belonging to the banned outfits were killed during this quarter, marking a 30% increase in the deaths of members of banned outfit (Table 23). After FATA and Balochistan, Karachi district in Sindh was the only place where such a large number of victims of violence belonged to proscribed outfits. Even the terrorists involved in suicide attack at Wagah, the town on the India-Pakistan border, last November were allegedly found hiding in Baldia town of Karachi and killed during an operation.

Table 23: Fatalities of banned outfits in Sindh – Apr-Jun
Banned Outfit	2014	2015
TTP	31	18
TTP-Suspect	0	9
TTP-Mohmand	0	0
TTP Swat	13	5
TTP-Mehsud	0	6
Al-Qaeda/TTP	0	5
AQIS	0	5
BLF	0	4
Banned outfits (unknown)	0	6
Wagah attackers*	0	4
TTP-JA	0	2
Unknown militants	0	19
ASWJ	15	3
Total	59	86

* Police claimed to have killed four terrorists involved in the Wagah bomb attack in a shootout in Baldia Town[5].

The fatalities of criminals in Sindh were also higher during this quarter of the year than the previous year (Table 24), and several new gangsters and gangs emerged during this period.

Table 24: Fatalities by criminals in Sindh – Apr-Jun
Banned Outfit	2014	2015
Gangsters (unknown)	5	10
Baba Ladla Gang	1	10
Uzair Baloch Gang	6	7
Sheraz Comrade Gang	8	10
Wasiullah Lakho Gang	0	2
Shakeel Badhshah Gang	2	0
Zaman Mehsud gang	0	2
Aurangzeb alias Orangi Wala	0	1
Sardar Asif group	0	4
Adil Kashmiri gang	0	3
Mullah Nisar gang	1	0
Bail Dada grp	1	0
Abdul Jabbar Jhengu grp	1	0
Ashok Kumar gang	2	0
Mullah Nisar gang	3	0
Total	30	49

A visibly significant reduction in the fatalities of the activists of different political parties was observed during this quarter (6) when compared with the 37 in same time period in 2014 (Table 25).

Table 25: Fatalities of political party members in Sindh – Apr-Jun
Political Party Members	2014	2015
MQM	28	4
PPP	3	2
ANP	3	0
PMLN	1	0
JSQM	1	0
Unknown	1	0
Independent	1	0
Total	37	6

One of the most heinous acts of militancy in Pakistan’s history was experienced in the city of Karachi during this quarter of the year when 45 innocent members of Ismaili families were mercilessly killed by militants (Table 26). Among the victims were 17 females.

This is a new merciless tactic that the militants have begun deploying. This also reminded of a similar sectarian attack on an Imambargah, a centre for religious congregations of shia Muslims, in Shikarpur, Sindh , on January 30, 2015 where 61 persons had lost their lives and 50 were injured.

Table 26: Fatalities claimed by banned outfits in Sindh – Apr-Jun
Banned outfit	2014	2015
TTP-Jandullah	0	45
Al-Qaeda suspected	0	3
TTP	27	3
TTP-suspected	3	0
Total	30	51

The changing dimensions of terrorism and its growing trend towards sectarian violence will be discussed in the next chapter.

 Casualties of sectarian violence

As many as 64 lives were lost to the sectarian violence in the country during the second quarter of this year (Table 27).

Table 27: Fatalities from sectarian violence – Apr-Jun 2015
Month	Fatalities	Injuries	Total Casualties
April, 2015	6	0	6
May, 2015	52	20	72
June, 2015	6	1	7
Total	64	21	85

The month of May 2015 witnessed the most horrific incident of violence in Karachi when 45 males and females belonging to Ismaili families were gunned down by the heartless militants. Some of the culprits involved in this crime came from educated and affluent families of Karachi. In many ways, this incident of terror was unique which involved brutal execution of as many as 17 females, by unusually well-educated individuals that belonged to teh city of Karachi.

The splinter group of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Jundullah, and Da’ish (also known as Islamic State) were the two groups who claimed responsibility for this violence. It must be noted that Jundullah had announced its allegiance to the Islamic State back in November 2014[6]. From this point onward, the government officials started blaming the Indian intelligence agency, RAW, for its involvement in inciting and supporting terrorism in the country, though solid proof has never been made public by the government. According to a report, about 44 persons were involved in the planning and execution of this sectarian violence in Safoora Goth, Karachi.

The comparative data for the latest quarter denotes significant decline in sectarian violence if compared with the corresponding quarter of last year (Table 28).

Table 28: Casualties from sectarian violence in Pakistan – Apr-Jun
Region	2014			2015
	Fatalities	Injuries	Casualties	Fatalities	Injuries	Casualties
Sindh	72	7	79	48	10	58
Balochistan	34	25	59	14	10	24
KP	8	12	20	1	0	1
Islamabad	0	96	96	1	1	2
Punjab	7	0	7	0	0	0
FATA	8	0	8	0	0	0
GB	0	1	1	0	0	0
Total	129	141	270	64	21	85

Even a comparison with the data of last quarter shows a reduction of over 40% in sectarian related fatalities in the country during the period under review (Table 29)[7].

Table 29: Fatalities from sectarian violence – 2015
Religion/Sect	Jan-Mar	Apr-Jun
Shia	104	18
Christian	16	0
Unknown	13	0
Sunni	10	1
Bohra	3	0
Ismaili	2	45
Total	148	64

Jundullah, a radical Sunni group, and a splinter group of the TTP, have been quite active after swearing allegiance to the IS in November last year. Out of a total of 156 fatalities from sectarian violence during this year, 127 were claimed to have been carried out by them (Table 30). In the past, it used to be the outlawed Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) that claimed responsibility for such sectarian crimes. Now, it has either become an unannounced affiliate of the Islamic State/Da’ish or gone into hiding because of the ongoing operation. There were only two incidents related to the desecration of holy place and scripture (Table 31).

Table 30: Claimants of sectarian fatalities – 2015
Claimant Group	Jan-Mar	Apr-Jun	Total
TTP-JA	26	0	26
Jundullah	82	0	82
Jundullah/LeJ	2	0	2
Jundullah/IS	0	45	45
Unknown	0	1	1
Total	110	46	156

A review of sectarian violence in the country before and after the initiation of Zarb-e-Azb points to a startling development though. All those banned militant organizations that were active in sectarian attacks before Zarb-e-Azb operation, particularly the rabidly anti-Shia LeJ, are no longer active (Table 32). Despite the claims of the government that Da’ish or Islamic State has no presence in the country, the sectarian attacks carried out by Jundullah and even claimed by Da’ish (ex TTP) itself defies the claims of the government.

Table 31: Claimants of sectarian attacks in Pakistan
Claimant Group	Before Zarb-e-Azb	After Zarb-e-Azb	Total
TTP – Junood Hifsa	83	0	83
TTP – Ansarul Mujahideen	60	0	60
LeJ	53	0	53
Jaishul Islam	4	2	6
Jundullah	0	85	85
Da’ish (IS)/Jundullah	0	45	45
TTP-JA	0	26	26
Al-Qaeda	0	3	3
ASWJ – suspect	0	3	3
TTP / LeJ	0	2	2
Total	200	166	366

 Conclusion

Despite a considerable improvement in the security situation of the country and a significant reduction in number of fatalities from all forms of violence (Table 03 above), religiously-driven militancy and politically patronized criminal syndicates remain the most formidable challenges to the law enforcement agencies (LEAs)

While the administrative measures taken in the aftermath of the National Action Plan (NAP), and accompanied by the military-led Operation Zarbi Azb, appear to be yielding some tangible improvements, enduring political success against crime and terror and neutralizing all forces that are strike against the core interests of Pakistan would require time, consistency, and a comprehensive security strategy. Revamping and putting police in the forefront of the war on terrorist and criminal groups must be the mainstay of such a security policy.

Two conclusions, however, can be drawn from the statistics reviewed above.

Firstly, the cumulative impact of the military-led security operations has created a space for the civilian leadership to stand up to the challenges that essentially stem from leaking governance and a compromised civilian security apparatus. The current campaign has obviously dented the organizational strengths of terrorism and criminal groups, disrupted and divided them. And its impact – considerable reduction in incidence of violence – is quite evident from the statistics.

Secondly, as the terrorists – most of whom are inspired either by local or external drivers as ploys of instability – are feeling the heat and are resorting to new tactics; picking up new targets through different tactics, followed by claims of responsibility by more than one groups.

This clearly seems to be an attempt to obfuscate the real identity of the perpetrators and to mask terrorism that is aimed at creating instability, uncertainty and confusion.

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[1] Due to a calculation error, the total fatalities for the period were reported as 1236 instead of 1352 in the last quarterly report.

[2] http://tribune.com.pk/story/894726/mastung-tragedy-relatives-stage-protest-outside-governor-house/

[3] In our last quarter report, the number of total fatalities in the FATA were reported as 512 due to a calculation error. It should be 612.

[4] Note that the total number fatalities reported in the last quarter report was 121 while it should have to be 131.

[5] http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-37574-Four-Wagah-bombing-suspects-killed-in-Karachi-shootout

[6] Jundullah vows allegiance to Islamic State, Reuters, available at: http://www.dawn.com/news/1145310

[7] Due to an oversight, the fatalities of sectarian violence during last quarter were shown as 384 which were in fact the number of total casualties. It should be 148.