by Engineer Arshad Abbasi

Pakistan today is facing a literal financial existential threat, largely because of a dated model of governance, lorded over by shortsighted politicians and self-serving bureaucrats.

In my policy brief, “Coal-fired Power Generation in Pakistan: A Policy Paper,” published on May 2, 2014, in JSTOR, a reputable electronic archive of leading journals, I had warned against the adoption of inefficient coal-fired power plants being commissioned those days.

This research was subsequently recognized by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s implementation arm, CTCN, and added to Princeton University’s database, a top-ranked global institution.

These warnings fell on deaf ears and the government proceeded with purchasing outdated technology from China under CPEC, ignoring the recommendations for ultra-supercritical technology. The consequences are stark: in 2022-23, Pakistan paid a staggering Rs 177 billion in capacity payments for three coal power projects, highlighting the massive financial cost of this decision. Now GOP has to pay 531 billion Capacity Payment in this year.

The grafs below, for example, explains the capacity payments to  power plants being run on imported coal between 2022-2024.

Paper published in

1. A policy brief published in JSTOR, a reputable academic platform (https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep00591)
2. Recognized by CTCN, the implementation arm of the UNFCCC- UN https://www.ctc-n.org/resources/coal-fired-power-generation-pakistan-policy-paper
3. Added to Princeton University’s database, a top-ranked global institution (. https://dataspace.princeton.edu/handle/88435/dsp012514nn86g)

Given the overwhelming evidence and credible data, some of the  ruling families  may face accountability in the International Criminal Court (ICC) under clause 4 for their role in perpetuating a flawed energy policy, prioritizing personal gain over public interest. By ignoring expert recommendations and purchasing outdated technology, they have caused significant financial harm to Pakistan.

Key Conclusions of the Paper

1. Some top politicians of the country own key coal-fired plants. Even a cursory audit would reveal the real owners and they may face ICC accountability under clause 4 if found involved in any capacity with certain power plants
2. Evidence suggests they prioritized personal gains over public interest
3. Financial harm to Pakistan due to flawed energy policyKey Critique Points:
4. Flawed capacity payment system
5. Reliance on outdated coal-fired power plants
6. Failure to adopt cutting-edge technology
7. Incompetence of the Planning Commission, Ministry of Power, and NEPRA
8. Disparity in institutional capacities with neighboring Bangladesh, India, and Sri-lanka

Pursuant to the presentation of the attached document and dissemination of links to additional institutions, a prima facie can be established against the real owners of the coal plants.. It appears that a concerted effort has been made for securing a substantial capacity payment – approximating 3 billion dollars, for their companies. And the big question is: Will the top guns of politics allow a real , substantial review of tariffs under the current circumstances.