- Geo-strategic location
- Drone attacks
- Foreign Involvement
- Military operations
- Policy on Kashmir and Afghanistan
- Poverty
- Unemployment
- Illiteracy
- Distribution of resources among provinces
- Deficient rule of Law
- Governance issues
- Role of Frontier Corps in Balochistan
Pakistan crucial geo-strategic positioning ´ protracted tensions with India over Kashmir, long history of strained relations with Afghanistan, and its proximity to Iran, which has tensions with the United States, and the increasing US focus on the region ´ can be termed as a major conflict driver. In the wake of the strategic location of Afghanistan, having proximity to China, Russia and the Central Asian states, the United States wants to keep foot in Afghanistan, in order to have an eye on the activities of China and Russia. Being a neighbor, Pakistan has the highest stakes in Afghanistan, and thus finds itself at the center of a complex geo-strategic scuffle going on in the region. As many actors are busy in the game in this part of the world, it becomes difficult for Pakistan to safeguard its regional interests in addition to maintaining peace and stability within its boundaries.
Drone attacks, carried out by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), also serve as a driving factor behind the militant upsurge. Right-wing religio-political parties and sympathizers of al Qaeda and Taliban condemn the drone attacks as a ‘violation of Pakistani sovereignty’, and therefore also use them to justify their opposition to the military’s counter-insurgency efforts. It increases anger and feeling of revenge even in the local population of the drone hit areas, resulting in an increase in terrorist acts against the government and the military forces of the country. According to the data compiled by The Long War Journal, US carried out 64 drone strikes in Pak-Afghan bordering region (South and North Waziristan) during 2011, which resulted in the killing of 405 suspected terrorists and 30 civilians. While 41 suicide attacks´ killing 606 people and injuring 1002 others ´ were reported across Pakistan in 2011, according to a report by the Conflict Monitoring Center.
Foreign involvement in the form of varying competing interests of the USA, China, India and Iran in Pakistan, is yet another major conflict driver in the country. The foreign actors are providing the insurgent elements with funding as well as armament to destabilize Pakistan for the accomplishment of their own geo-strategic designs in the region, thus placing the sovereignty as well as the very existence of Pakistan at stake. Combined with the lack of sincere long-term strategic vision within the country, the competing interests of these countries do work to the disadvantage of Pakistan.
Since 2004, Pakistan Army has been carrying out military operations in different agencies of FATA and also in some settled areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The army has also deployed over 100,000 troops along the Pak-Afghan border to curtail militant infiltration into Afghanistan. Also, intrusion of al Qaeda and Taliban in the tribal areas forced the army to conduct search and surveillance operations, and also establish additional check posts. The presence and operations of the army in the tribal areas enraged the tribesmen, who until then had not been familiar with the army at all. They found it very difficult to reconcile with the new situation. Right-wing political parties such as JUI-F and Jamaat-e Islami [JI] exploited these conditions, and have kept calling for the pullout of the army from tribal areas. This also plays into the common psyche inside Pakistan, with many common people calling it ‘America’s war’.
The prevailing instability in Pakistan has a strong connection with the country’s foreign policy towards Afghanistan and Kashmir. Pakistan’s support to jihadi elements in Kashmir and Afghanistan has affected the society at large in many ways. The recruitment of seminary students in particular and poor youths in general in the jihadi organizations such as Lahskar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Hizb-ul Mujahideen (HM), operating in the Indian administered Kashmir, and also for the 1980s Afghan Jihad and the ongoing war in Afghanistan, has considerably changed the social fabric of the rural Pakistan. The void created by poverty, illiteracy, unemployment and inefficient system particularly in rural localities across the country has been exploited by the jihadi organizations, and a section of the society has leanings towards extremism.
Pakistan faces extreme food insecurity, which puts individual security in danger posing a threat to the security of the state, the region and ultimately the globe. According to conservative estimates, 63 percent of the poor in Pakistan are in the category of ‘transitory poor’. The rest of the 32 percent and five percent of the population – subsisting below the poverty line – are ‘chronic’ and ‘extremely poor’, respectively. Chronic and extremely poor are those households that are always below the poverty line. Similarly, on the other side, 13 percent and 21 percent of the total non-poor (above the poverty line) have been classified as ¿transitory vulnerable– and ¿transitory non-poor–, respectively. This portrays a worrying situation as more and more people are moving from the transitory category to the chronic category, due to regressive taxation leading to inequitable distribution of income and wealth, monopoly over assets by a few, and wasteful expenditure by the government. With most of the country’s resources directed to debt-servicing, the military and its ongoing campaigns against militants, very little is available to address chronic poverty in Pakistan. It is interesting to note that poor populations are most vulnerable to the propaganda used by extremist groups to recruit more people to their cause. In many cases, they also provide food and shelter, making it more appealing for poor populations to turn to violence and extremism. FATA which is the worst terror-affected region of Pakistan is also the most backward region in the country with 60 percent of the population living below the poverty line. Per capita public expenditure in the region is one-third of the average for Pakistan. Similarly, the southern part of Punjab where militancy has established its roots is an area poorer than other regions of the province.
An unemployed person ´ one who has ability to work and is also willing to work but does not have the opportunity ´ is a burden to the society. Being depressed of being idle and having no work to do, an unemployed person can take any decision, which can bring harm to his own self as well as the society. Media reports say that a lot of people in the tribal belt as well as other parts of the country have joined militant groups and other destabilizing forces just to earn money for their near and dear ones. A major portion of Pakistan population consists of youth and a large number of young people who have the ability and are willing to work, are unemployed. Therefore, high levels of unemployment enable militant organizations to recruit also the better educated, mature and experienced young people of the society. The unemployment rate in Pakistan was reported at 5.95 percent in the 2010/11 fiscal year against the averaged 5.88 percent of the decade 1990 to 2009. While the New America Foundation survey discloses that ‘unemployment is very high in FATA, with only 20 percent of respondents in our survey saying they were working full-time. Indeed, lack of jobs was chosen as the most important problem in the region by 95 percent of those surveyed’. As hungry man is an angry man, even an educated person, when denied entry to any openings, can raise a gun and indulge in illegal activities to snatch his share from the society. Hence the persistent increase in unemployment rate in the country is becoming a crucial driving force behind the escalating violent acts.
Pakistan has one of the lowest literacy rates in the world, yet no serious efforts have been made to promote literacy, and consequently we are facing several problems, with radicalization and militancy being at the top most. The gravity of the situation is evident from All-Pakistan Labor Force survey report, screening 21 million child laborers. A sense of deprivation leads to violence, and hence it is not the poor who support the militancy, in fact it the militants who come to support the ‘poor’, making the already conflict ridden situation of the country further bleak. An illiterate person does not have solid footings in his views on any subject, and remains an easy prey for anyone to conquer him. For not having knowledge of even the basics of Islam, he is easily misguided by radical groups that use him for securing their respected designs. The areas affected by militancy in Pakistan have a relatively low literacy rate. Furthermore, education in Pakistan is different for the rich and the poor, as the poor can neither afford to enroll in the high-level educational institutes, nor do they have access to the modern curricula studied by the rich ones. The polarization created by this dangerous trend damages the general fabric of the society.
Disproportionate and unequal resource-distribution among the four provinces has been one of the major causes of instability and clash in Pakistan. Sub nationalist sentiments, Baloch nationalist movements, demands for a Seraiki province (southern Punjab) and the recent protests to press for a Hazara province, are all but a few manifestations of the economic inequities that have stoked conflicting situation in the country. Ethno-linguistic diversity and capital inability to develop a national politics create stakes for all groups, including differing tribes and classes.
Rule of law is the primary pre-requisite for effective governance and justice delivery but the judicial system and the police department remained badly tainted and corrupt. The ruling elite’s (politicians, generals, and bureaucracy) contempt for the rule of law has been so pervasive that common Pakistani has little hope of getting justice. It was one of the major contributory factors to the surge in militancy in Malakand and FATA. According to report on rule of law, ‘No society has ever attained a perfect realization of the rule of law. But when plotting 35 countries on an objective scale, Pakistan is dangerously close to perfect failure, scoring last on three out of nine distinct metrics of a just and fair society.’
Good governance has so far been a dream in Pakistan. Almost every government promised to introduce good governance in the country, but could hardly deliver. The key elements that ensure good governance ´ participation, consensus, accountability and transparency ´ were found lacking in the working of every government department in Pakistan. The factors behind failure in achieving good governance ´institutional deficiencies, corruption, deficient rule of law, incapacities of public sector personnel and flawed taxation system ´ proved to be the major contributing factors in different ongoing conflicts in Pakistan.
During a hearing on the alarming law and order situation in the south western province of Pakistan, Balochistan, on May 14, 2012, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, Chief Justice of Pakistan Supreme Court, observed that ‘— the FC (Frontier Corps) was present in a whopping 95% of the missing persons– cases’. He made those remarks after a few videos involving FC personnel, were played in the apex court to identify actors behind the recent surge in cases of the missing persons. In a similar hearing on May 11, 2012, Deputy Inspector General (DIG) Operations Balochistan Police Hamid Shakeel informed the Supreme Court about the CCTV footage showing FC men picking up three missing persons from a local hotel. Major General Obaidullah Khattak, the Inspector General (IG) FC Balochistan, specially summoned to depose before the court, denied the involvement of his forces in this particular abduction case but these denials hardly help in rubbing off widespread perceptions and allegations that place the FC at the centre of the controversy. Most Baloch activists accuse the para-military force of high-handed and extra-judicial approach in dealing with nationalist insurgents and political activists. People at large as well as politicians often attribute murders and abductions of Baloch nationalist leaders to this federal para-military force, which, in public perception, is a conflict-driver rather than force dedicated to prevent conflict and violence. Some federal intelligence agencies such as the Military Intelligence and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) have also often faced criticism for their extra-judicial role in forced disappearances (popularly known as missing persons) or target-killings of vocal Baloch nationalists demanding autonomy for Balochistan. The total number of missing persons in Balochistan varies. According to Balochistan Government some 729 persons are missing in the province. But according to rights groups– estimates, the number is much higher i.e. close to 2, 000. The videos placed before the Supreme Court, the observations judges of the highest court have been making during the hearing, also reflect the widespread perceptions of the law enforcement agencies.
Balochistan covers 44 percent of Pakistan total land mass. Policing such a huge geographical but mostly thinly populated area, has always been a security and management challenge for the federal and provincial governments. That is why some 95 percent of the area – designated as ‘B areas – is policed by the semi-government force called Levies. This force comprises about 14, 000, while only five percent of the provincial territory, comprising big urban centers is under the direct control of the Police and Balochistan Constabulary, totaling 29,800.
The over-arching security force deployed in the province is the Frontier Corps, a 50,000 strong para-military organization led by the military. Ever since the military operation launched in August 2006, the role of the FC has been expanding, and consequently the target of public and Baloch nationalist criticism as well. The ensuing struggle for control between nationalist militants and law enforcement agencies created a ‘security state’ phenomenon, whereby federal law enforcement agencies became central not only to security but also to the political governance and overstepped their authority in going after militants. That is why frequent complaints of forced disappearances (missing persons), extra-judicial killings and abuse of power by the FC-led security apparatus.
Baloch nationalist leaders like National Party, Balochistan, vice president, Senator Mir Hasil Bizenjo are continuously pointing towards the malicious role of federal law enforcement agencies in enabling and perpetuating crime in the province. During a discussion forum at CRSS in February 2012, he unequivocally underscored that 50 percent of the issues in Balochistan can be addressed within days by withdrawing FC from the province. Such an overwhelming role is played by the FC in defining and underwriting security order in the province?
If public perceptions were an indicator, the FC has then certainly emerged as a prime conflict driver ´ a state actor that, in the eyes of the public at large,is brutal, excessive and extra-judicial in dealing with non-state actors i.e. separatist Baloch nationalists and those opposed to the presence of the security forces in the province.