The Sharbat Gula episode coupled with recent bomb explosions in and around Kabul continue to blemish prospects of any real improvement in bilateral ties with Pakistan. Both the countries may have to wait for a long time for an attitudinal change to happen. The level of mistrust has almost disturbed the DNA of the relationship. Figuratively speaking, foreign bodies are feasting more on the frail strength of Afghanistan- Pakistan fraternal ties and their proverbial plethora of common interests than the internal dynamics of their relationship. The commitment of Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah to “good and positive ties with Islamabad” at a meeting in Kabul with the combined delegation from CRSS (Centre for Research & Security Studies) & WPSO (Women &Peace Studies Organization) was indeed heartening. But sustained meaningful talks, which may infuse sanity as well as vibrancy, in the current atmosphere of hostility and misunderstanding on the part of ruling elites in both countries, will be next to impossible. The mistrust has spread through the entire body of relationship. The historic baggage and the one still in the making are hard to lay off.
Is there no silver lining? Have the elites, especially hawks, forgotten how much both the countries have sacrificed for a war which was not their own and was imposed on them by outsiders. Afghanistan has suffered the most but Pakistan no less, both in blood and material.
According to the Global Terrorism Index 2016 report released by the Institute for Economics and Peace this week, Afghanistan ranked number two, after Iraq, for the year 2015. Afghanistan suffered the worst year so far, resulting in nearly 18,000 deaths from the conflict in 2015. TOLO news shows that October was the deadliest month in the past two years with more than 6,000 insurgents, nearly 500 security forces and more than 700 civilians killed or wounded in October.
Pakistan has so far suffered 60,000 deaths, billions of material damages and more ominous culture of weapons and narcotic drugs wrecking the country. Should this pattern of carnage continue year after year despite pious statements from political and military elites whenever they meet? Only the insane and the vested interest in the status quo will condone or support it. Neither President of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani nor Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif is of that ilk.
The current mindset that nothing can be achieved unless both sides fulfill what is expected from one by the other needs to be set aside. This maximal expectation should be replaced with hope and confidence that the innate strength of our shared destiny is mightier than the manipulative policies of forces having peripheral interests. To begin with, each one of the two countries must move beyond words and undertake concrete small steps to prepare the ground for a breakthrough in their fragile bilateral relations.
None of the two countries can eliminate terrorism in the region, which is killing their people and potential to develop. None alone is powerful to fight the negativity that has seeped into their relationship. None can deny that peace in one country depends on peace in the other. Fortunately, both sides have acknowledged this co-relation and now it only needs to be nurtured jointly. Both have to engage with each other to evolve operational mechanisms to accomplish their joint mission without endangering each other’s core interests.
It is not fair for Afghanistan to believe that the Pakistan military still harbors strategic depth policy towards Afghanistan and has used the Afghan war to benefit militarily and financially. And that it wants to see a weak and pliant Afghanistan giving Pakistan adequate space in determining what kind of government suits the country. Further, the Afghan side quizzed that the Pakistan Army was more hostile than the civilian government in Pakistan. Both appeared two different entities, pursuing different relations with a modern, democratic and new Afghanistan, the Afghan side claimed.
Afghanistan may consider revisiting its doubts about Pakistan’s efforts to stop cross border terrorists’ activities through better border management. Not Pakistan alone but Afghanistan’s friends including US, NATO and Russia feel that the Taliban is a real political armed force in Afghanistan. The National Unity Government itself has reconciled with erstwhile Mujahid Hikmatyar Gulbadin. Pakistan supports such a process and makes no distinction any more between good or bad Taliban. While initiating Zarb-e–Azab, Pakistan reportedly conveyed in advance a message to the Afghan to be prepared to nab terrorists attempting to slip across the border in the wake of the said operation. So it is not right to claim that Pakistan has pushed Haqqani and anti-Afghan Taliban networks into Afghanistan.
Afghanistan’s Chief Executive Dr. Abdullah Abdullah in his meeting has rightly underlined that despite difficulties in the relationship of the two countries, it was important to take concrete steps upon which bilateral relations could be strengthened. He expressed the hope to have substantive discussions on bilateral relations, including on the common threat of terrorism facing the entire region in his forthcoming meeting with the Pakistani leadership, stressing a joint and sincere effort by the two countries and the region against terrorism.
In a spirit to resolve the difficulties in the relations, the Afghan leader directed his staff to form a review committee to remove hurdles in the efficient completion of Pakistan funded projects and allow customs exemption and duties for equipment for a hospital and a school being constructed by Pakistan as gifts for the Afghans. Even his views about the Pakistan government’s instructions to provinces with regard to the Afghan refugees echoed a positive note and no one could differ with him that the treatment of refugees should not be such that they turn against the host country which had offered them generous hospitality for decades. In different words, Afghan Minister for Refugees and Repatriations Syed Hussein Alemi Balkhi expressed the same views that refugees should serve as a friendly bond rather than a divide between the two nations.
Equally, Pakistan has to be mindful of the legitimate national interests and sensitivities of Afghanistan. Foremost is that Pakistan should be seen to be working visibly against anti-Afghan terrorists. It should move beyond “squeezing” top Taliban families and force them to move out of Pakistan if they are not prepared to subscribe to the Afghan government led and owned national reconciliation efforts. Pakistan where necessary must not restrain regulated traffic by imposing more restrictions including visits to airports, hotels, hospitals, and shopping centers located in cantonment areas. Pakistan may consider relaxing visa regime for education and medical treatment. It may also come up with a more compassionate refugee repatriation plan ensuring at operational low level no harassment and usurpation of assets of the Afghan refugees. The plight of Pakistan born Afghan children and Afghan spouses of Pakistani nationals and their properties maybe given special dispensation including nationality or long term visa with right to work.
Pakistan should avoid stoking Afghan sentiments by staging Wagah border style parades at Pak- Afghan border on its own without a mutual agreement. Our officials and diplomats should come out of this shell that India has turned the entire Afghan elite and majority of the Afghan public against Pakistan. It must be realized that India as a negative factor has existed in Afghan-Pakistan bilateral relations except for the brief period of the Taliban rule. It would be inadvisable to remain stuck in the grove that India and America are fueling anti Pakistan sentiments in Afghanistan and that this trend will continue as long as America stays in Afghanistan. In Kabul, the officials in our mission seem to have this view. When they were quizzed as to when the government of Pakistan adopted the Taliban position that America must leave Afghanistan soonest possible, instead of a clear response it was repeatedly observed that no improvement in Pak-Afghan relations was possible until the Americans left. One wonders if there has been a shift in Pakistan’s policy.
Nevertheless, Pakistan should continue to insist that India would not be allowed to determine the level and scale of its bilateral relations with Afghanistan. In parallel, if Afghanistan agrees Pakistan should revive the quadrilateral arrangement with China, Afghan Government, Pakistan and Taliban for restarting the stalled dialogue to promote national conciliation. Pakistan should participate in the forthcoming consultations in Moscow involving Afghanistan, China and Russia. Under no circumstances, Pakistan should remain in any illusion that America’s interest will wane in its neighborhood and Afghanistan can or will pursue a policy conflicting with the US global interests in the region. Pakistan should learn to manage and deal with the circumstantial infirmities in the region without compromising strict vigilance on entry/exit points across the Pak-Afghan border.
The author Mian Sanaullah is a former Ambassador, political analyst and Advisor to Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). He can be reached at mian.sana@gmail.com.