The unthinkable has happened in the US Presidential elections. The world plunged in a shock over the results of the US election giving Donald Trump the right to occupy the White House for the next four years as President. Now it maybe unproductive to debate whether he should have been elected or not. It is also immaterial to think whether a person like him represented the values of American society as advocated globally by the past 44 US presidents and their governments across party divide.
The crucial issue is how the world would react to this stunning development after initial shock. Candidate Trump spoke against almost all the US allies and condemned the Obama foreign policy initiatives. He shocked Muslims insisting first a complete ban on their visit to the US and later relenting to special interviews before issuing them visas. For him, each Muslim was an Islamist and a potential threat to America. He praised the Russian President and his way of governance. For him, the Russian adventures in Ukraine and Syria were not intimidating. He said that “ I don’t expect to see Putin in Mexico, therefore why should I be in the Ukraine? We need to get along with Russia to beat Islamists”. Europe may find his victory more shocking than Brexit. His views about NATO are no less than a death warrant. He threatened to pull out from NATO. Similarly, South Korea, Japan and Singapore will feel the punch if they are to fend for their security on their own
How President Trump will handle the issues of Syria, continued instability in Iraq and Afghanistan? How will he handle China, India, Pakistan and Iran? Trump was confident that he would take care of Syria? On China, he has been very vocal and threatening. India fascinated him but he lampooned it too. The worst is that no one knows for sure what are his views regarding nuclear disarmament and the agreement already entered with the Russia and how would he co-opt China in the future regulatory framework? In his victory speech, President Trump has invoked the principle of reciprocity, which is a tough condition for shaping up relations between powerful and weak partners. There will be less of opportunity for weaker partner than a daunting challenge.
It is now easy to find out what led to his winning the election and controlling the US Congress. One has to pick up the thread from his speeches and boastful remarks, smacking sex exploits, misogynic tendencies and a ranting racist the full picture emerges. The only redeeming thoughts were his assault on corrupt establishment in Washington, the inability of the two terms of Democrats to fulfill election promises, negative impact of his globalization and trade policies for American jobs. With his fundamental views remaining as they are, he as a President is going to shape up the US in his mould.
The immediate reaction of shock is not likely to peter off so soon. The world will survive the Trumps’ twister. Whatever Trump says, he will moderate his diabolical policies once installed in February as President. Despite usual welcoming statements, the world leaders are likely to suffer from a sense of uneasiness till the reality sinks in and they are called to reset their alliances or positions. Even the close allies of US will find themselves in an unsettling discomfort to work with a total political novice.
Has America completely changed from a liberal, global and tolerant society to what Trump personified through his actions and remarks. The results indicate that within the US, his appeal has surpassed even his wildest estimates. He managed to win majority for the Republican Party in Congress. People ignored inanities slapped on Trump. Even educated women voted for him. The message is clear. The US is not yet ready for its first female president. Average Americans wanted a change from the corrupt financial system and establishment in Washington. Experience and status quo was cast away for a voice, which echoed the sentiments of the commoners afflicted with fear of immigrants, unemployment, the Wall Street financial corrupt system and apprehensive about terrorism and disillusioned over growing inequality and a squeezed middle class, fuelling social anger. What is not clear is whether he will put Hillary Clinton behind bars as repeatedly announced during the campaign? Can anyone guess when he will start building the wall to stem Mexican incursion and who will pay for it? It is for sure that these threats will remain rhetoric. No wall or detention of Hillary Clinton will happen.
The world will slowly wake up that President Trump will moderate his positions. He will be more responsible in his policies. After all he has to lead the most powerful nation. The world will learn to live with him. Any improvement in relations with Russia will be conducive to pursue jointly cooperative solutions to overcome instability in Libya and fight against ISIS. Being a President, Trump has to shun uncertainties and if he has to create jobs for ordinary Americans, he has to cooperate with the Wall Street and big corporations. There is no way he can stick to his election rhetoric and fulfill the promises has made. He will have to continue with the trade policies of Obama. Isolation is no solution.
The Trump presidency is likely to be tough with Pakistan. He will mount pressure on Pakistan to do more on the Afghan front. In a subtle way, the US will be lobbying against the presence of China in the Indian Ocean, thus hurting CPEC. In general, Muslim states will feel the brunt, especially in the first two years of settling period of Trump’s presidency. India will remain the focus in South Asia as a major contact for economic reasons and to manage the rise of China on an acceptable level. Indian involvement in Afghanistan will get support and appreciation by Trump. The Kashmir issue will not get any attention from him.
The US election results should serve as a lesson or a timely warning for governments in Europe or elsewhere. Many more Trumps can emerge if popular rhetoric is allowed to become unmanageable. At the same time, the governments must address the fear and demands of “silent assassins” on the electoral lists.
The author Mian Sanaullah is a former Ambassador, political analyst and Advisor to Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS).