Misgivings about Pakistan’s ability to provide adequate security to Chinese workers employed in China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects are still weighing heavily on policy makers despite reassurances publicly conveyed by Pakistan. However, the Chinese government remains committed that CPEC projects would be completed to realize the dream of building a China-Pakistan Community of Shared Destiny. Also, Chinese are concerned over the simmering controversy between Pakistan’s Federal and two provincial governments regarding distribution of projects under CPEC. They are displaying extra sensitivity over any valid or flimsy criticism of CPEC by Pakistan’s smaller provinces.

Pakistani scholars made it clear that CPEC enjoyed support across all political parties among Pakistanis. Nevertheless, the umbrella project should be seen generating employment, establishing economic zones and not becoming a conduit for trading Chinese goods and commodities alone. It was hoped that the Chinese state companies would use their experiences in Africa, the Kyrgyz Republic and Kazakhstan to recruit Pakistani engineers and technicians in line with their qualifications. Projects should benefit wider sections of population, beyond the political and business elites.

Pakistani delegates to the Beijing and Islamabad dialogue pointed out that the strength of bilateral ties comes from mutuality of strategic interests, tested interdependency in moment of despair and needs, mutual willingness to transform relations to meet new and emerging challenges and finally unstinting public support in both countries for each other at regional and international levels. For commonality of interests and mutual respect, any change in government or leadership in either of the two countries, or the demise of the Cold War era and its associated alliances or subsequent readjustments could not affect their relationship.

Chinese Concerns

Chinese officials and academia are reluctant to assume that CPEC criticism in KP and Balochistan aims more at expanding economic benefits for these regions than against CPEC per se. They are taking the political rhetoric in the two provincial capitals too seriously. The routine bureaucratic delays and inefficiencies are being deemed as a calculated move to block CPEC Early Harvest Projects.

It was worrisome to note that despite the success of anti-terror operations like Zarb-e- Azb by the army and the reassurances given by our top civilian and military leadership, the Chinese policy makers still sound skeptical. They feel that three factors are not to be ignored in this context, namely:

1. the Taliban are surging in Afghanistan and, therefore, may feel emboldened to carry out violent acts in Pakistan,
2. India has been providing funds and weapons to Baloch secessionists etc. for destabilizing Balochistan and no respite is in the offing due to collusion between TTP/Factions and Baloch separatist groups such as BRA and BLF., and
3. American global agenda to prop up India against China will not falter any time soon. Most Chinese believe the net outcome is likely to exacerbate the security landscape in the region, complicating and impacting Indo-Sino, Indo-Pak relations.

Caution against false expectations

While both sides recalled their strategic partnership in all sorts of fancy clichés, they also noted that misstating CPEC as a strategic project risked raising false expectations, especially in Pakistan. Normally, China does not publicly question official statements of Pakistan. It was a bit distressing to note when they quizzed the figure of 46 billion dollar investment in CPEC. According to them, “only US $ 13.9 billion have been invested so far in multiple projects. There was no guarantee that the remaining US $ 32 billion will be invested in CPEC. At best, the oft quoted figure is an estimate”. The underlying implication is that further Chinese investment is subject to security cover for Chinese in Pakistan.

These pronouncements ran contrary to the statements by the Chinese diplomats in Pakistan, who have been mentioning this figure all through, the real investments could far exceed $ 50 billion if Pakistan managed it right.

Surprisingly, the Chinese side underplayed the importance of Gwadar port for China in terms of accessing oil and other commodities for a sustained economic growth rate in China. They vehemently contested that the Malacca Strait would never be blocked and in any case, China currently imported only 7 % of its oil from abroad. Other points made by the Chinese policy makers included possible army control of the implementation authority for CPEC to be set up in Pakistan at their advice and better relations with Afghanistan as must for link-up with the Central Asian Republics.

Following are the six takeaways from the Beijing Seminar:

1. The unfailing bilateral commitment and determination to secure implementation of CPEC and the results of early harvest projects serving as catalysts to removing political misgivings and bureaucratic inefficiencies confronting CPEC in KP, Baluchistan, and Gilgit Baltistan.
2. Pakistan’s security situation is still precarious despite the success of anti-terror operations. Foolproof security cannot be ensured due to continued Afghan imbroglio and the unending hostile Indian interventionist policy.
3. The domestic power politics is not directed against CPEC. It is all about maximizing gains for regions in order to promote electability factor of the party concerned. No sabotage of CPEC is on the card in Pakistan where it is seen a win-win project for both sides.
4. Chinese worries about Pakistan’s isolation and its impact on CPEC are exaggerated. Pakistan cannot be isolated by India beyond a limit. India has overplayed its hostility card and was snubbed by China and Russia at BRICS summit. However, Pakistan may encounter another combined onslaught from India and US against CPEC declaring it as a strategic alliance rather than economic with some strategic content in order to isolate Pakistan.
5. India is opposed to Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean. It will certainly treat stationing of Chinese Navy at Gwader as an assault on its exclusive right to be the primary force in the Indian ocean. Pakistan is prepared to deal with this new dimension of China-Pakistan friendship. However, pitted against India, Pakistan will be ignored by international community.
6. China and Pakistan have tested friendship, which has withstood tumultuous storms of hostility, for the past 65 years. The economic transformation of their relations will move ahead, albeit not without hurdles. However, perceptions, rhetoric, ground realities and results of 30 Early Harvest Projects (PRGRR) will greatly determine whether CPEC can reach it high goal in furthering Sino-Pakistan ties.

In short, despite all the odds and potential risks, China is not likely to change its current policy of supporting CPEC as a priority pilot project of the “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) but the increased cost of security for the corridor is likely to impact the decisions of the Chinese investors while moving beyond the Early Harvest Projects. Both Pakistan and China should be ready to brace themselves for “potential setbacks” and be ready for a response to unforeseen situations.

The author Mian Sanaullah is a former Ambassador, political analyst and Advisor to Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS).