Aarish U. Khan, Sr. Research Fellow
The shocking revelation of the presence of OBL in the backyard of the Pakistan Military Academy in Abbottabad seems to have blocked the vision of several Congressmen from seeing beyond this crisis. This also gets reflected in several hostile statements by influential senators like Carl Levin and Joseph Lieberman. Certain senior senators, however, are calling for a more informed and dispassionate decision on the introduced bill. Key Republican senators, Lindsey Graham and John McCain have voiced their concerns about the bill. Senator John Kerry, however, remains the greatest advocate of bolstering Pak-U.S. relations, cautioning against any abrupt halt in relations with or aid to Pakistan.
Kerry essentially represents those Congressmen who understand and appreciate that notwithstanding Pakistan shortcomings, it has played a critical role in the war on terror in the past ten years. According to a U.S. army major, who served at the U.S. mission in Islamabad, ‘Pakistan has more than 147,800 troops deployed conducting combat operations in the tribal areas along the Afghan border. The Pakistan army has lost more than 3,200 soldiers in recent fighting against Taliban forces along their border with Afghanistan, with another 6,400 injured. They sustain an average of 10 casualties each day, not counting the Pakistani civilians killed by suicide bombers.’[5] The importance of Pakistan military immense cooperation was evident from the fact that Maj. Gen. John Campbell, the commander of U.S. troops in eastern Afghanistan, complained about his troops having to control a 450-mile (724-km) long stretch of border when his forces lost regular contact with their Pakistani counterparts amid the aftermath of the OBL drama.[6] In addition to Pakistan combat military assistance, Pakistan also serves as the key transit route for supplies to NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. Almost 70 percent of NATO supplies and 40 percent of their fuel transit through Pakistan with a monthly traffic of 5,000 trucks.[7]
These hard realities of Pakistan inevitability for the war on terror, and the fact that the U.S. wants to start trimming its combat presence in Afghanistan from July onwards, make it very difficult for Washington and other NATO capitals to ignore it in their end-game in Afghanistan. According to Senator Kerry, the combat engagement in Afghanistan currently costs about $ 10 billion a month for the U.S. alone. The other NATO nations plan to have withdrawn the bulk of their troops from Afghanistan by 2014 as well. If the past is any indication, Pakistan will remain important in the execution of these draw-down plans. This is the message Senator Kerry would probably bring along when he visits Islamabad in the coming days. Known as Obama ‘firefighter,’ Kerry is expected to cool down tempers both in Washington as well as assuage the bruised Pakistani egos with the help of a combination of carrot and stick approach that successive US administrations have used in the past decade.
[1] ‘Bill presented in the US House to stop Pakistan aid’ in Dawn Karachi, May 6, 2011.
[2] ‘Bill presented in the US House to stop Pakistan aid’ in Dawn Karachi, May 6, 2011.
[3] Eric Schmitt et. al.: ‘U.S. Was Braced for Fight With Pakistanis in Bin Laden Raid’ in New York Times, May 9, 2011.
[4] Haider, Mehtab: ‘$700m US aid may be hit in Osama fallout’ in The News Karachi, May 9, 2011.
[5] Souter, Jeffrey: ‘Is Pakistan an Ally in the War on Terror’ in Monthly Hilal, February 2011.
[6] Iqbal, Anwar: ‘Pakistan military cut off ties for two days’ in Dawn Islamabad, May 11, 2011.
[7] Hamid Mir in Program Capital Talk on Geo TV, aired on May 10, 2011.