The following document gives an overview of the state of security in different parts of Pakistan. The primary objective of ‘Pakistan Security in 2011’ is to provide a glimpse of the country continued perilous journey ´ moving from one political or security setback to another with a direct bearing on the economy. In 2011, Pak-US relations in war on terror plunged to its lowest point in its decade long history. The Raymond Davis case of January 27, US raid to kill Osama bin Laden of May 2 and NATO attack on a Pak-Afghan border post badly impacted the bilateral relations, and thus tossed the volatility of security in Pakistan into the air. Indeed, severing of Pak-US ties also had repercussions for economy in Pakistan during the course of the year.
Security Overview
Pakistan security conditions remained volatile all through 2011. As many as 3,250 people fell prey to militancy related violence across the country while almost 700 security personnel were killed as a result of ongoing conflict between militants and security forces in different parts of Pakistan during the current year.[1] A Pakistan Security Report 2011, published by the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS), counted about 7107 people dead across Pakistan in 2985 incidents of violence of various nature during 2011.[2]
FATA
Pakistan semi-autonomous Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) ´ spread over about 27,200 sq.kilometres bordering Afghanistan ´ remained embroiled in the military-militant hostilities. Known abroad as the world ‘most dangerous place,’ FATA is home to some of the most lethal militant organization like the Tehreeke Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Lashkare Jhangvi, and the Afghan Haqqani Network ´ which , according to US military and intelligence officials, are the local supporting arms of Al Qaeda.
According to Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Pakistan Army media wing, almost 473 military men were killed and 1543 injured in ongoing military operations in the volatile tribal regions (FATA) of Pakistan during 2011. Also, 711 civilians were killed and 1548 other injured as a result of militant attacks in the region. During the year, security forces carried out 10 major and 38 minor operations against Taliban militants in the said areas, that border Afghanistan.
According to the data complied by The Long War Journal, US carried out 64 drone strikes in Pak-Afghan bordering region (south and north Waziristan) during 2011, which resulted in the killing of 405 suspected terrorists and 30 civilians.[3] Meanwhile, militants banked lesser on awfully lethal terrorism tactics, the suicide bombing in Pakistan during 2011. According to a report by the Conflict Monitoring Center, 41 suicide attacks were reported across Pakistan, which resulted in the killing of 606 people and injuring 1002 others. But again these were the civilians who bore the major brunt of suicide bombing, ‘[A]s 59 percent (358 out of 606) and 85 percent (856 out of 1002) of the injured were innocent citizens.’[4] After civilians it was the security forces, usually the prime target, lost their 187 personnel during different suicide attacks. Also, 51 suspected suicide bombers perished while unleashing blood and terror. The number of suicide attacks was 48 percent lower than the last year.[5]
Karachi
Political, criminal and ethnic slivers of violence in the most populous metropolis of Pakistan that is Karachi, badly impinged on the economy and security of the city which has a direct bearing on the national economy because Karachi is the major gateway for Pakistan external trade. Ethno-political violence involving the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Awami National Party (ANP) and Sunni Tehrik (ST) played out badly in the city and accounted for major losses of lives. Estimates suggest that 1675 people were killed in different types of violence in the city; meanwhile criminal activities soared matchlessly in comparison with recent past years with 1113 houses and 19 bank robbed and 105 people kidnapped.[6] Moreover, the phenomenon of suicide terrorism revisited Karachi during the current year and 18 people lost their lives as a result of five suicide attacks.[7]
Balochistan
Data compiled from different sources suggests that as many as 621 people were killed in insurgency and sectarian related violence across the province. Out of these, 281 people were shot dead in different incidents of target killing and firing. Two suicide attacks took the lives of 68 people in the province and 120 people were perished as a result of bomb blasts and landmine explosions. Moreover, the ongoing ¿kill and dump– operation in the hapless province emitted shocking ripples across Pakistan, as figures suggest that 231 mutilated dead bodies* of nationalist political workers/missing persons were recovered across the province in 2011. Likewise, abductions for ransom and political gains are another emerging trend in Balochistan, where 47 people were abducted for the aforementioned reasons during the course of the year.[8] Also, steep rise in sectarian violence in Balochistan was the prominent feature of the year. As Balochistan government estimates suggest that 117 people mostly belonging to Shia sect of Hazara community were killed in 20 incidences of violence, while 84 people were severely injured. Relatively higher number of people killed in sectarian violence suggests that sectarian militancy, taking the benefit of reigning security vacuum in the province, is blatantly putting down its roots in the province.
Dead Bodies Recovered in Balochistan
| S.# | Division | Unidentified | Baloch | Pashtoon | Others | ||||
| 2010 | 2011 | 2010 | 2011 | 2010 | 2011 | 2010 | 2011 | ||
| l. | Quetta | – | 13 | 42 | 16 | 7 | 09 | 08 | 04 |
| 2. | Kalat | 01 | 07 | 27 | 57 | 01 | – | 01 | 8 |
| 3. | Mekran | – | 01 | 08 | 52 | – | – | – | 1 |
| 4. | Nasirabad | – | 05 | 02 | 05 | – | – | 01 | 1 |
| 5. | Zhob | – | – | 01 | 02 | 02 | 08 | – | 1 |
| 6. | Sibi | – | 02 | 01 | – | – | – | – | 1 |
| Total | 01 | 28 | 81 | 132 | 10 | 17 | 10 | 16 | |
Grand total: 2010: 102
2011: 196
Bomb Blasts/Rocket Firing Incidents 2007-2011
| Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 15-12-2011 |
| R/Firing | 197 | 377 | 172 | 144 | 199 |
| Bomb Blasts | 414 | 512 | 481 | 455 | 379 |
| Total | 611 | 889 | 653 | 599 | 557 |
Source: Balochistan Home Department, Quetta
Summary of Attacks on Utility/Communication Installations 2007-2011
| Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 15-12-2011 |
| QESCO | 42 | 58 | 52 | 13 | 30 |
| SSGCL | 33 | 51 | 54 | 07 | 60 |
| RAILWAYS | 21 | 21 | 20 | 04 | 12 |
Source: Balochistan Home Department, Quetta
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa/Punjab
In the case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), 719 people fell prey, mostly to terrorist attacks carried out by Islamist militants, largely by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. Two dozen suicide attacks killed some 382 people during 2011. And here again, it were the civilians who bore the heaviest price of terrorist violence, as 227 civilians along with 175 security forces– personnel got killed.[9] In the populous and relatively stable province of Punjab 116 people were killed in different types of 30 terrorist attacks.[10] While the internal security landscape remained fragile, the external security also received a rude shock when US Special Forces ´ SEALs – sneaked into Pakistan at midnight on May 2, 2011, killed Osama bin Laden and took away his dead body. On the one hand, it was the biggest achievement for the US in 2011, but the worst humiliation for the Pakistani armed forces, triggering unprecedented criticism and also prompting questions on the safety of the country nuclear weapons.*
Details of Terrorist Activities and Resulting Causalities in KP
| PERSONS KILLED | ||||||||
| DISTRICTS | NO OF CASES | |||||||
| REGISTERED | ||||||||
| POLICE | FC | ARMY | CIVIL. | TOTAL | CIVIL. | TOTAL | ||
| Peshawar | 143 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 141 | 188 | 347 | 456 |
| Charsadda | 41 | 3 | 79 | 0 | 28 | 110 | 124 | 208 |
| Nowshera | 20 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 42 | 103 | 131 |
| Mardan | 21 | 4 | 0 | 31 | 5 | 40 | 41 | 125 |
| Swabi | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 30 | 30 |
| Kohat | 13 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 13 | 22 |
| Hangu | 21 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 94 | 133 | 170 |
| Haripur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Battagram | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 22 |
| Bannu | 17 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 5 | 25 |
| Lakki | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| D.I.Khan | 13 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 16 |
| Tank | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Swat | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 23 |
| Shangla | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Burrer | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dir Lower | 9 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 52 | 71 | 98 | 115 |
| Dir Upper | 5 | 16 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 2 | 4 |
| Chitral | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 18 |
| TOTAL | 354 | 130 | 143 | 45 | 401 | 719 | 943 | 1392 |
Source: Home Department, Peshawar, KPK
Suicide Attacks in KPK during 2011
| DISTRICTS | NO OF CASES | PERSONS KILLED | ||||
| REGISTERED | ||||||
| Police | FC | Army | CIVIL. | TOTAL | ||
| Peshawar | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 81 |
| Charsadda | 2 | 2 | 79 | 0 | 23 | 104 |
| Nowshera | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 20 |
| Mardan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 31 |
| Swabi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 |
| Kohat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Hangu | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 45 |
| Battagrarn | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| Bannu | 2 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 19 |
| Lakki | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| D.I.Khan | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| Dir Lower | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 48 |
| Total | 23 | 37 | 82 | 36 | 227 | 382 |
Source: Home Department, Peshawar, KPK
Economic Security
Pakistan economic security remained in peril during 2011 dismal due to adverse security conditions, structural weakness, porous governance and prevailing glum global economic environment. The latest State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)annual report released on December 19th also highlighted Pakistan institutional weakness at all tiers of the government ¶ judiciary, civil services, law enforcers, regulatory bodies and accountability agencies ¶ , which it said were directly responsible for poor economic growth in the country.
The report, also expressesmultiple concerns surrounding the economy, attributing the institutional weakness to the extremely poor governance indicators and to the deteriorated business environment. This way, says the report, Pakistan performed the poorest of all South Asian neighbours.
According to theDoing Business 2011 ´ Making a Difference for Entrepreneurs survey carried out by the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation, Pakistan dropped eight places in the list of the best countries for doing business, slipping from 75 in 2010 to 83 in 2011.
The SBP reports also draws on the survey to underscore the need for drastic measures to fix some of the most pressing problems that Pakistan faces.
‘Both domestic and global factors are responsible, but we believe that domestic issues are more decisive and chronic. These include the collapse of fixed investment, acute energy shortages, urban violence and lawlessness, poor physical infrastructure and institutional fragility,’ observes the report.
It also points to the loss-making public sector enterprises which ‘continue to haemorrhage and drain scarce fiscal resources.Railways, national airline PIA and Pakistan Steel are classic examples of the heavy cost of poor governance to the economy,’ the report said and added that ‘Pakistan political leadership must take credible steps to stop the slide’. But who listens to the State Bank and who is interested in stemming the slide?
Alarmingly, the forecast for 2012 is not encouraging at all. The balance of payments has never been worse. International oil prices are likely to soar beyond $100 per barrel. Debt servicing for the country close to 58 billion dollar foreign, according to estimates placed before the National Assembly recently, will cross a whopping $4.2 billion in the current year, with no hope of a substantial cut in the defence and internal security budget that currently stands above $9 bn.
According to the State Bank of Pakistan report (2010-11), ‘The issue of fixed investment merits special mention. Pakistan investment rate was only 13.4 percent in FY11, which is the lowest since 1974’, the report narrated.[11] ‘[T]he GDP growth of the country is likely to settle in the range of 3-4 percent by the end of fiscal year 2011-12, which means that the economy is faltering and barely ahead of the population growth rate.’[12]
Moreover, the report underlined that the major causes behind ‘[T]his grim state of affairs include the collapse of fixed investment, acute energy shortages, urban violence and lawlessness, poor physical infrastructure and institutional fragility.’[13] Also, it categorically termed the ¿institutional weakness– in all spheres of the government as the major factor holding back the country economically. The poorly governed and chronically sick state institutions like PIA, Railway, Wapda and Pakistan Steel Mill were the major drainer of the government financial resources.[14]
The report also quoted a recent World Bank study on the ranking of business friendly states. According to this study, ‘— Pakistan slipped from 96 to 105, out of 183 countries evaluated— and out of 10 specific topical criteria, Pakistan scored poorly on the availability of electricity (at 166), followed by citizens who actually pay their taxes (at 158).’[15]
Furthermore, as a debt-ridden economy also dependent on foreign loans, grants and aids, Pakistan suffered a lot in 2011 for its continued tensions with the US-led Western coalition engaged in the War on Terror in Afghanistan. These tensions also minimized the Western goodwill for Pakistan and thus resulted in shortfalls, including the US decision to withhold $3.2 billion in Coalition Support Funds (CSF). CSFs are the reimbursements that the US makes to Pakistan for deploying almost 150,000 troops on its 2,560 km long border with Afghanistan.
Outlook for 2012
As a whole, 2011 marked yet another year of turmoil, uncertainty and fragility for the state of Pakistan and its over 180 million people. The US raid to kill Osama bin Laden on May 2, and the deaths of two dozen Pakistani soldiers in a US-led NATO attack on Salala Check Post in the Pak-Afghan border region of Mohmand precipitated the internal security crisis. These attacks not only exposed Pakistan vulnerabilities, kicking up a new anti-military establishment story, but also brought relations with the United States to a standstill.
Numerous comments and reports by American writers and US policy makers kept insisting that the gravity zone in War on Terror lies in Pakistan.[16] This way, the US Security establishment grew wary of its in USA is rapidly becoming wary of Pakistani counterparts. And this fact was succinctly outlined by the usually soft-spoken former US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen in his last appearance before the US Senate Armed Service Committee on September 22. In his statement, Admiral Mullen slated the Pakistani ISI for its duplicity and treacherous motives in fight against terrorism.[17] Against this backdrop, the perception about the role of Pakistani military in fighting terrorism will not die down easily and as a result external security of Pakistan will remain under severe scrutiny.
Most analysts agree that simmering conflicts in FATA, KPK and Balochistan, and the clash of political and commercial interests of various political parties in the country largest city Karachi on the Arabian Sea will continue to strain Pakistan security apparatus, consume attention and resources. This is likely to keep the security situation volatile, particularly because of the Al-Qaeda-linked groups such as TTP, Lashkare Jhangvi, Lashkare al Alamal Islami. Tensions between the ethnic MQM and Awami National Party in Karachi, which caused hundreds of deaths in 2011, are likely to play out in 2012 as all parties prepare for the impending general elections. That is why the outlook for the next year remains dismal.
According to a recent article in The New York Times, Pakistani citizens are overly pessimistic about the direction and prospects of the country. As only eight percent of the citizens were hopeful that Pakistan will overcome the challenges it is currently facing.[18] Thus, widespread state of hopelessness among the masses, economic meltdown, raging wars against militants and separatists, loss of overriding political ground for single political party, external pressures to ¿do more–, nervousness among military ranks about US designs, and motives of civilian government and adaptation of violence as a tool to make heard by the ethno-political factions, paint a gloomy outlook of Pakistan in 2012.
Counter-terror Efforts in FATA and KPK
Fragility of the political system, porous governance, the insecurity stemming from militant groups and continued tensions with external players such as the United States and India also impede efforts to counter terrorism. All these factors in fact constrain the war against religious extremism.
Some of limitations that the civilian security apparatus faces are:
1. Attacks on pylons/gas pipelines/public places in KPK and Frontier Regions continue to hurt public interest and instigate public anger against the government (a notorious militant tactic)
2. Militants’ supply of weapons and money continues and intelligence agencies are still clueless as to where exactly these resources are coming from (laser guns for target killings of strict commanders/officers, also apparently used in the Dec 22 attack on the Frontier Constabulary Fort in Tank, KPK)
3. Public disinterest and lack of cooperation. Most people don’t report the presence of aliens, although the situation in Malakand and Swat region has turned around, with a lot of militants being arrested on tips by locals
4. Poor governance and poverty continue to cast shadows on counter-terror efforts. Certain people within the community take aliens – potential terrorists – as paying guests, without knowing who they actually are
5. Security forces continue to remain under-strength
6. Insufficient monetary resources
7. Deficiency of electronic surveillance devices
8. Legal restrictions (under the Anglo-Saxon Law), whereby this legal framework restricts quick administrative action (we cannot fire first, says a senior police official)
In this context, it seems that the counter-terror war, and by implication the counter-radicalisation efforts, require a greater and more coordinated response, backed by administrative, financial and technical resources as well as a legal framework. Obviously, such an approach also runs the risk of giving a “carte blanche” to a force that is known as one of the most corrupt institutions. But finding a balance between efficient uses of available resources and preventing their abuse is not impossible. All we need is the civilian and military cooperation and a consensus on how to supplement each other, rather than pursuing same goals with a narrow institutional outlook.
Endnotes
* Meanwhile, data compiled by the Balochistan government recorded the discovery of 196 mutilated dead bodies of missing persons and political workers in the province.
* According to Jeffery Goldberg and Marc Ambinder of the Atlantic Monthly Magazine, in the aftermath of May 2 raid on Osama bin Laden compound, Pakistani Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani was very nervous and upset regarding the safety and security of nuclear weapons. And soon after the raid, he rang up to Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Khalid Kadwai, the head of Strategic Plan Division (SPD), to ascertain the state of security of nuclear weapons and asked the SPD head to beef up the security. They (authors) underlined: ‘General Kayani worry, as expressed to General Kidwai after Abbottabad, was focused on the United States. According to sources in Pakistan, General Kayani believes that the U.S. has designs on the Pakistani nuclear program, and that the Abbottabad raid suggested that the U.S. has developed the technical means to stage simultaneous raids on Pakistan nuclear facilities.’ Jeffery Goldberg and Marc Ambinder, ‘The Ally form Hell’, The Atlantic Magazine, December 2011.
[1] Ian Livingston, Michael E. O–Hanolon and Amy Unikewicz, ‘State of Conflicts: A Final Update’, The New York Times, December 18, 2011, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/opinion/states-of-conflict-a-final-update.html
[2] ‘Pakistan Security Report 2011’, Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies Report 2012, p. 5, available at sans-pips.com
[3] Bill Roggio and Alexander Mayer, ‘Charting the data for US airstrikes in Pakistan, 2004 ´ 2011’, available at http://www.longwarjournal.org/pakistan-strikes.php. While, data complied by South Asia Terrorism Portal suggest that US carried out 59 drone strikes in 2011 which resulted in the killing of 548 people. ‘Drone attack in Pakistan: 2005-11’, available at http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/Droneattack.htm
[4] ‘Significant Decline in Suicide Attacks in Pakistan’, Conflict Monitoring Center Annual Report 2011, available at http://cmcpk.wordpress.com/2012/01/01/significant-decline-in-suicide-attacks-in-pakistan/
[5] Ibid.
[6] ‘Criminals on the Rampage in 2011’, The News, Tuesday, December 27, 2011, available at http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=84283&Cat=4&dt=12/27/2011
[7] ‘Significant Decline in Suicide Attacks in Pakistan’, 2011.
[8] South Asia Terrorism Portal, ‘Pakistan Timeline—2011’, available at http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/timeline/index.html and Human Rights Commission of Pakistan Report, ‘Balochistan: Blinkered slide into chaos’, 2011, available at http://www.hrcp-web.org/pdf/balochistan_report_2011.pdf
[9] The data compiled by the Home Department of KP during 2011.
[10] ‘Pakistan Security Report 2011’, p. 5.
[11] Shahid Iqbal, ‘State Bank Annual Report: Institutional Weakness Pointed’, Dawn, December 20, 2011, available at http://www.dawn.com/2011/12/20/state-bank-annual-report-institutional-weakness-behind-poor-economy.html
[12] ‘Not so Good Tidings’, Daily Times, December 21, 2011, available at http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011%5C12%5C21%5Cstory_21-12-2011_pg3_1
[13] Ibid.
[14] Iqbal, ‘State Bank Annual report:—‘, 2011.
[15] Ibid.
[16] Ian Bremmer and David Gordon, ‘Top Risks of 2012’, Eurasia Group Report, January 3, 2012, available at http://eurasiagroup.net/pages/top-risks-2012; Zbigniew Brzezniski, ‘8 Geopolitically Endangered Species’, Foreign Policy Magazine, Jan/Feb 2012, available at http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/03/8_geopolitically_endangered_species?page=0,6; Jeffery Goldberg and Marc Ambinder, ‘The Ally form Hell’, The Atlantic Magazine, December 2011, available at http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/12/the-ally-from-hell/8730/; and Jon Lee Anderson, ‘2011-2012: The World at War? The New Yorker, December 16, 2011 Read morehttp://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2011/12/2011-2012-the-world-at-war.html
[17] State of Admiral Michael Mullen, September 2011, available at http://armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2011/09%20September/Mullen%2009-22-11.pdf
[18] Ian Livingston, Michael E. O–Hanolon and Amy Unikewicz, ‘State of Conflicts: A Final Update’, The New York Times, December 18, 2011,